China's Real Estate Market: Performance and Prospects

Great changes have taken place in China＇s real estate market during the 12th Five-year Plan period. The real estate market has shifted from being undersupplied to having an equilibrium of supply and demand with regional oversupply. Real estate risks in some cities have begun to emerge, but overall real estate risks remain controllable. Given the major changes taking place in the supply and demand of China＇s real estate market and the current stage of its development, it is projected that China＇s real estate investment growth will continue to slow down during the 13th Five-year Plan period and pressures on the renovation of inventory housing will intensify. According to the changes in the development of China＇s current real estate market, the objectives of real estate development will be adjusted to put a higher premium on the development level, the quality of real estate development, and the improvement of housing conditions. Reform and policy adjustments should be carried out to effectively prevent real estate market risks and to achieve stable operations inside the real estate market itself.

An Effective Prediction Method for Supporting Decision Making in Real Estate Area Selection

Real estate has been a dominant industry in many countries. One problem for real estate companies is determining the most valuable area before starting a new project. Previous studies on this issue mainly focused on market needs and economic prospects, ignoring the impact of natural disasters. We observe that natural disasters are important for real estate area selection because they will introduce considerable losses to real estate enterprises. Following this observation, we first develop a self-defined new indicator named Average Loss Ratio to predict the losses caused by natural disasters in an area. Then, we adopt the existing ARIMA model to predict the Average Loss Ratio of an area. After that, we propose to integrate the TOPSIS model and the Grey Prediction Model to rank the recommendation levels for candidate areas, thereby assisting real estate companies in their decision-making process. We conduct experiments on real datasets to validate our proposal, and the results suggest the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Real estate market efficiency: Evidence from Chinese cities

The price in an efficient market can adjust to new information instantaneously to eliminate any arbitrage opportunities. Such a phenomenon is not always observed in the real estate market because of its unique characteristics, which include fixed location, heterogeneity and low transaction frequency. Using housing and office market data of some major cities in China, this paper examines the return and risk characteristics in these markets and assesses market efficiency. It finds that a number of instruments, including lagged quarterly and annual excess returns and, to some extent, the measure of the deviation of price from the intrinsic value, predict future returns. Therefore, weak form and semi-strong form efficiency can both be rejected in these real estate markets. These empirical findings suggest that there is slow price adjustment in real estate markets in China, which may be attributed to inefficient information transmission systems and long searching time in the markets.

Research on the Impact of Market Concern for Real Estate Policy on Housing Prices: Evidence from Internet Search and Hedonic Price Theory

To avoid the effects of systemic financial risks caused by extreme fluctuations in housing price,the Chinese government has been exploring the most effective policies for regulating the housing market.Measuring the effect of real estate regulation policies has been a challenge for present studies.This study innovatively employs big data technology to obtain Internet search data(ISD)and construct market concern index(MCI)of policy,and hedonic price theory to construct hedonic price index(HPI)based on building area,age,ring number,and other hedonic variables.Then,the impact of market concerns for restrictive policy,monetary policy,fiscal policy,security policy,and administrative supervision policy on housing prices is evaluated.Moreover,compared with the common housing price index,the hedonic price index considers the heterogeneity of houses and could better reflect the changes in housing prices caused by market supply and demand.The results indicate that(1)a long-term interaction relationship exists between housing prices and market concerns for policy(MCP);(2)market concerns for restrictive policy and administrative supervision policy effectively restrain rising housing prices while those for monetary and fiscal policy have the opposite effect.The results could serve as a useful reference for governments aiming to stabilize their real estate markets.

Study on the roles and acting mechanism of the real estate brokerage in China second-hand housing market

As China housing reform deepens, the second-hand housing transactions become more and more popular and real estate brokerages, as an intermediary of the transactions, become an undeniable important part of this market. This article mainly explores the roles and the acting mechanism of real estate brokerages in the second-hand housing market. The results show that the participation of real estate brokers in the second-hand housing market may have positive and negative influences. On one side, brokers ease the housing transaction process and benefits buyers and sellers by shortening the sale time on the market. On the other side, if brokers are the only participants in the housing transaction, acting as buyer and seller like some firms do, housing prices will increase and this negative effect will become even stronger as the participation of many more brokers increases. Therefore, the regulation and management of the industry is vital for the long and healthy development of the housing market in China.

Dynamic Game Research on Multiple Subjects in the Real Estate Market of China

In order to analyze the deep-routed reason for the failure of the real estate market regulation policy, this paper established an incomplete information tri-game model in which central government, local government and the real estate developer were chosen as three main research objects. Based on the analysis of their interest appeals under the assumption of rational economic man, we found that it was the difference of interest appeals of central and local governments as well as the real estate developers that caused the game among the three participants. This, however, led to the failure of the macro-control at last. Strengthening the supervision of central government and reducing its cost at the same time, what’s more, improving the efficiency of the supervision and increasing the punishment of the rent-seeking behavior between local government and the real estate developers will contribute to improve the implementation status of the regulation and control policy. We suggest the authorities improve the government political achievement appraisal system and reform the current system of benefits distribution;moreover, reform the existing regulatory system and strength the regulatory role of media and the third-party so as to promote the healthy development of the real estate market.

The Relationship Between the Real Estate Market and the Stock Market and Its Impact on the Strategic Planning Process in the Jordanian Organizations

This study aims at the relationship between the real estate market and Amman Stock Exchange, through the impact of three macroeconomic factors （GDP, inflation rate, and the population growth rate） and another three factors from the microeconomic indicators （interest rate, remittances of Jordanian expatriates, and the loans provided by the Jordanian banks）. The results show that the stock market is more sensitive to the microeconomic indicators than the real estate market, and responds more rapidly than the real estate market for the changes in the microeconomic indicators. The study presents some recommendations for the Jordanian companies who own or manage any investment portfolio to be aware for the existing relationship between the two markets, and to reflect this awareness in their strategic Plans, Particularly in the regression atmosphere that causes by global crisis.

Stock Market Turnover and China’s Real Estate Market Price: An Empirical Study Based on VAR

Our analysis used the monthly data of the average sales price of commodity houses and stock turnover in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange from January 2016 to December 2020. We selected this data to establish a Vector Autoregression(VAR) model using the Granger causality test to investigate the correlation between the stock market and the real estate market. We found that there is a significant positive correlation between the stock market and the real estate market. We also found that the real estate market price is the one-way Granger cause for the stock market turnover, and that changes in the real estate market price have a significant role in forecasting changes in stock market turnover. Therefore, the linkage between the two markets should be considered in macro regulations, and the impact on one of the markets should be considered when regulating the other.

Evaluation on the Process and Effects of Monetary Policies to Chinese Real Estate Market

The process of China＇s monetary policy regulation on the real estate market can be roughly divided into four stages since 1998. The first and the third stages are to raise housing price, while the second and the fourth stages are to curb housing price. There are both successful experiences and failure lessons in these stages of regulation. The present monetary policy instruments should be based on quantitative instruments, while the price instruments shall serve only as a supplement. We should use comprehensive polices including land policies, fiscal policies, legal and political means to develop a variety of specific and flexible policies to prevent financial risks, so that to fully play the important role of real estate market.

Research on the Healthy Development of China’s Real Estate Market under the background of Macro Regulation and Stock Marketing

Rising production costs, changes in the way of technological progress, the rate of decline in investment income, export-led growh is not sustainable, these factors make the Chinese economy has entered a “new normal.” This performance is the new normal economic growh rates, “stagflation” risk appears to reduce the employment pressure, increased proportion of consumption, industrial structure transition from labor-intensive to capital-intensive and knowledge-intensive, as well as increased demand for independent research and development. In the “new normal”, China should moderately lower economic growh target, deepening reform, speed up industrial restructuring and independent innovation, the implementation of the policy mix of supply and demand double expansion, demand management, or a small amount of sound monetary tightening, fiscal expansion policy mix. “Destocking” is the main task of the real estate market, due to the effect of crowding out commercial and affordable housing between the stocks is bound to affect the development of affordable housing. Faced with the real estate market structure imbalance, we should supply-side and demand-side two-pronged approach.

Analysis on the Competitiveness of Industrial Real Estate Based on Diamond Model ——Taking Jiangxi Province as an Example

Based on the current development of industrial real estate of Jiangxi Province, comprehensive analysis was conducted to 6 aspects using the idea of diamond model, namely, factor conditions, demand conditions, related and supporting industries, firm strategy, structure and rivalry, government and chance through the comparison with the other industrial real estates and analysis on horizontal competition in China. Development countermeasures were investigated to improve the competitiveness of the industrial real estate in Guangxi, putting forward the strategies of developing the role of government and business, seizing the opportunities of the times, city-industry integration development, implementation of industrial integration and integration of city development, the implementation of industrial integration and investment planning.

Cyclical fluctuations of real estate investment across regions in urban China

Taking the concrete conditions of each region into full consideration, the Chinese real estate market is divided into an eastern market, a central market and a western market. For each market, the autoregressive integrated moving average （ARMA） model is established and spectral analysis is carded out to better understand the changes in the real estate markets in each region. The results show the investment levels and several kinds of cycles within each market. The level of real estate investment （LREI）in the eastern region is the higiaest, and the short cycle of investment is about 4 to 5 years; the LREI in the central region is in the middle, and the short cycle of investment is about 2 to 3 years; the LREI in the western region has been rapidly increasing in recent years, and the short cycle of investment is about 4 to 5 years. Real estate investment in each area has reached a peak and completed a middle-cycle movement after a period of sustained recession and an upsurge process, which has taken about 9 to 10 years.

The Impact of Hot Money on Chinese Real Estate Price

Because of the expectation of RMB appreciation and the extremely high return rate of Chinese real estate market,more and more hot money rushed into China.As a result,the real estate price level is getting higher and higher,the bubble economy is getting worse,and the Chinese real estate is accumulating numerous risks.This study tried to find out the relation between the hot money and Chinese real estate price level with the help of empirical method.The study not only analyzed the impact of hot money on Chinese real estate price level and its harmful influence over the economy,but also proposed some suggestions to supervise the real estate market.

Research on Rural Collective Land Ownership Confirmation Based on Unified Registration of Real Estate

Rural collective land ownership registration is a basic work to safeguard farmers＇ land rights and interests, and promote rural reform and development, which involves the vital interests of the peasants, and has great influence on the rural economic and social development. However, there are many problems in rural col- lective land ownership registration and certification, such as unclear rural land own- ership subject and nature; not unified understanding of registration, no high enthusi- asm of the grass-roots work; prominent registration policy contradictions, serious shortage of investment, which seriously affect the rural land ownership registration work. In order to solve these problems, some suggestions are put forward on pro- moting the rural land ownership registration work smoothly.

Real estate appraisal system based on GIS and BP neural network

For the inefficiency and inaccuracy of appraisal method of traditional estate appraisal theory, the real estate appraisal system based on GIS and BP neural network was established. The structure of the system was designed which includes appraisal model, trade case, GIS database and query analysis module. With the help of the L-M algorithm in MATLAB software, BP neural network was improved and the trade cases were trained, then the BP neural network which has already been trained was tested. At the same time, the BP neural and GIS were put together to construct the hedonic price estimate model. The C# and ArcGIS9.3 were used to achieve the system in VS2008. City basic geographic data and real estate related information were used as the basic data in practice. The results show that the functions of querying, adding and editing the spatial data and attribute data are achieved and also the efficiency and accuracy of real estate are improved, so that the new method of real estate is provided by the system.

Analysis of the Development of Real Estate Industry from the Perspective of Supply Side Structural Reform

The role of the real estate industry plays a very important in China＇s eco- nomic reform, and in recent years, with the onomy, the real estate enterprises in China progressive development of market ec- have become weak. However. the ＂hot real estate＂ seems to be in constantly upgrading. Industry development is necessary for the operation of each enterprise. Development is an important part of the strate- gy of an enterprise, and according to the current situation of development of real estate economy, it is very important for the development of the whole economy to predict the future development trend. The proposal of supply side structural reform measures could resolve the problems of remaining capacity and high inventory, which makes China＇s real estate industry present a new atmosphere. In this paper, a typical case, the listed real estate company ZHONG HUA Real Estate Enterprise Company Limited was selected to analyze its conditions, finding that inventory ex- cess production capacity and low land use efficiency were common problems in the development process of real estate industry at present. In order to solve these problems, some concrete suggestions and countermeasures were proposed from the government control management, real estate management and property buyers de- mand management.

Design of the Blockchain Smart Contract: A Use Case for Real Estate

Blockchain is a fast-disruptive technology becoming a key instrument in share economy. In recent years, Blockchain has received considerable attention from many researchers and government institutions. This paper aims to present the Blockchain and smart contract for a specific domain which is real estate. A detailed design of smart contract is presented and then a use case for renting residential and business buildings is examined.

Empirical evidence on the ownership and liquidity of real estate tokens

To better understand the potential and limitations of the tokenization of real asset mar-kets,empirical studies need to examine this radically new organization of financial mar-kets.In our study,we examine the financial and economic consequences of tokenizing 58 residential rental properties in the US,particularly those in Detroit.Tokenization aims at fragmented ownership.We found that the residential properties examined have 254 owners on average.Investors with a greater than USD 5,000 investment in real estate tokens,diversify their real estate ownership across properties within and across the cities.Property ownership changes about once yearly,with more changes for proper-ties on decentralized exchanges.We report that real estate token prices move accord-ing to the house price index;hence,investing in real estate tokens provides economic exposure to residential house prices.

Real Estate Management via a Decentralized Blockchain Platform

Blockchain technology is one of the key technological breakthroughs of the last decade.It has the ability to revolutionize numerous aspects of society,including financial systems,healthcare,e-government and many others.One such area that is able to reap the benefits of blockchain technology is the real estate industry.Like many other industries,real estate faces major administrative problems such as high transaction fees,a lack of transparency,fraud and the effects of a middleman including undue influence and commissions.Blockchain enables supporting technologies to overcome the obstacles inherent within the real estate investment market.These technologies include smart contracts,immutable record management and time-stamped storage.We utilize these key properties of blockchain technology in our work by proposing a system that has the ability to record real estate transactions in a private blockchain,using smart contracts.The immutability of the blockchain ledger and transactions can provide a safe space for the real estate business.Blockchain technology can also assist the authentication process by hastening background checks.Personal digital keys are provided to parties that are involved in a contract,thus minimizing the risk of fraud.We also discuss the rationale behind the advantages of using a blockchain in this manner,and how we selected the consensus mechanism for our proposed system.

The analysis of capital structure of Chinese real estate listed companies

Capital structure is the basis for assessing the efficiency of enterprise financing activity. The rational capital structure could reduce the cost of capital and plays an important role in managing a company. Thus this paper, based on the real estate listed companies on Shenzhen and Shanghai stock markets, analyzes the factors which influence capital structure, such as profitability, size, collateral value of assets, growth, stockholder’s equity, concentration degree of control power, ownership attribute, and applied statistics tools used to help the real estate listed companies optimize the structure of capital.