环境规制与中国宏观经济——基于动态随机一般均衡模型的实证分析

本文构建了一个环境规制影响宏观经济的内在逻辑框架,在此基础上将环境规制冲击引入动态随机一般均衡模型,探讨环境规制对中国宏观经济的动态影响。实证结果表明:建立在"波特假说"基础上的模拟经济能够较好地模拟实际经济特征,环境规制对产出、消费、投资和资本存量具有长期正向效应,对就业、物价、生产成本和工资收入具有长期负向效应,且在对各宏观变量变化的贡献中,环境规制发挥了主要作用。技术进步、政府支出和劳动供给对宏观经济的冲击与已有研究较为一致,但与环境规制相比,三种冲击对宏观经济的影响仅为中短期效应。

关于互联网平台取代传统中介机构的研究——基于瓦尔拉斯一般均衡理论

随着信息技术的不断发展,基于互联网平台的买卖交易模式开始兴起。本文在总结瓦尔拉斯一般均衡理论的概念、约束条件基础上,阐述了中介机构产生的原因,分析新兴互联网平台取代传统中介商的必然趋势。本文认为,随着大数据、云计算等信息技术的不断发展以及互联网平台自身的不断完善,传统中介机构所拥有的信息优势和降低交易成本优势会逐渐丧失;互联网平台提供交易服务向买卖双方收取的费用,将会随着信息技术的发展而降低,最终趋近于零,即提供免费的交易服务。

Intensity Allocation Criteria of Carbon Emissions Permits and Regional Economic Development in China——Based on a 30-Province/Autonomous Region Computable General Equilibrium Model

The intensity allocation criteria of carbon emissions permits and its influence on China＇s regional development are analyzed through the 30-province/autonomous region computable general equilibrium （CGE） model. Simulation results show that： industrial intensity criteria without taking regional economic development into account deepen the unbalance of regional economic development; regional intensity criteria without taking industrial properties into account exert little negative impact on regional harmonious development, but relatively high negative influence on high-carbon emission industries. The two-step allocation scheme that the central government allocates emissions permits to provincial governments based on regional economic development and then provincial governments allocate emissions permits to emission resources or entities based on industrial properties is a feasible and operable choice.

Economic Implications of CO2 Emission Reduction in Japan Applying a Dynamic CGE Model with Endogenous Technological Change： Use of Emission Permit Revenue

This study analyzes the economic and environmental impacts of a climate change measure in Japan using a single-country dynamic computable general equilibrium model with technological change as an endogenous variable. In this way, a comprehensive analysis of the relationships between climate change and its measures, technology, and economy has been done. The model uses technological change as the accumulation of knowledge capital that is derived from research and development investment. The study investigates the impacts of a climate change measure considering the use of emission permit revenue and technological change induced by the policy implementation in the Japanese economy. Simulation results show that there is compatibility between CO2 emission reduction and positive effects on GDP that depends on the ways of the revenue use and technological change induced by emission reduction. However, it is not possible to find the ways to realize positive effects on both GDP and welfare simultaneously in the study. The sensitivity analysis for the elasticity of substitution between knowledge capital and other inputs also confirms the obtained results.

Economic Implications of Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change： An Analysis Using the AIM/CGE [Global] Model

The purpose of this study is to analyze economic impacts of reducing greenhouse gases emissions significantly. A large amount of emissions reductions are required throughout this century to avoid dangerous climate change, and understanding the economic consequences under such situations is important and meaningful. The AIM/CGE [Global] model, a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model on a global scale, is applied to analyze carbon prices and changes in GDP when implementing five policy scenarios represented by emissions pathways, respectively. As a result of the analysis, higher carbon prices and larger decreases in GDP compared to the baseline emissions scenario are observed when emissions are reduced more deeply. However, such GDP losses are rather small and insignificant compared to the GDP growth observed throughout the century. These results suggest that although it is challenging to reduce emissions until the level to avoid dangerous climate change, there is a sufficient possibility to achieve it from economic perspectives.

The uniform enterprise income tax reform in China

In China, the income tax of enterprise is very different between foreign funded enterprises and other domestic enterprises. It is believed that this discrimination is harmful to the entire economy. So there is a reform in the tax system to build a uniform enterprise income tax. This is a significant reform in China＇s tax system, so every decision about this have to count the cost and the benefit carefully. The author has introduced the Computable General Equilibrium （CGE） to simulate this new tax system and value its benefit and cost. There are two different models in the paper; they are of different assumptions and for different purposes. Model I is a static CGE model and model II is a Ramsey Dynamic model. The static model is mainly used for comparative static approach to examine how the tax reform will change the endogenous variables. According to the results of the model, more goods will be produced by both of the DFEs and FIEs after the tax reform in the medium and low tax effective tax rate situations. If the nominal tax rates decrease 24.24% （from 33% to 25%）, the enterprise income tax will only reduce 19.36% and the total tax revenue will only reduce 1.911%. The dynamic model will concentrate on the costs and benefits during the transition. From the results of the model, a lower tax rate will increase the level of investment, capital stock, capital prices, wage rate and also the growth rates through transition. If the capital tax rates are changed gradually, the fluctuating of transition will be smoothed a little.

Economic Analysis of CO2 Emission Abatement Applying a Dynamic CGE Model with Endogenous Technological Change： Impacts of the Time Horizon

We evaluate economic and environmental impacts of climate change mitigation in a country scale considering various time horizons in the analysis applying a single-country dynamic computable general equilibrium model with endogenous technological change. Although there is a possibility that Gross Domestic Product （GDP） becomes larger for the abatement cases than the baseline case in the earlier years, it tends to be lower than that in the later years. The longer the time horizon and/or the more severe the abatement, the larger the negative impacts will be. When subsidizing R＆D investment, increase in GDP compared to the baseline case is realized in the middle of the time horizon, and the larger increase tends to be observed for the longer-term cases. These results would be due to technological change induced by the subsidies and emission abatement. Environmental indicators are also improved. We showed that the results were influenced by the target time horizon when using an intertemporal dynamic model.

Choice and Simulation of Tax Rates in Resource Tax Reform

Resource tax reform will be done during China＇s 12m Five-Year Plan, but related research is still lacking. Here, we build a computable general equilibrium model （CGE） comprising the functional equations of production, consumption, income/expenditure and resources to analyze the resource tax rate. The model uses the valorem tax levy to simulate the impact of economic and resource systems with different resource tax rates, by referencing the expected rate ranges of China and developed countries. The results show that the impact is different for social, economic and resources of varying degrees. In the relatively stable period of economic development, we can select a tax rate of 5% to 7%; during higher economic development we can select an optional high level of resource tax; and in a fluctuating economy we can choose a lower tax level.

Comparative Evaluation between Water Parallel Pricing System and Water Pricing System in China: A Simulation of Eliminating Irrigation Subsidy

The reform in water pricing plays a critical role in agricultural production, which is believed to have great water savings potential. We consider eliminating irrigation subsidies as a simulation and conduct a comparative evaluation between the water parallel pricing system （WPPS） and the water pricing system （WPS）, which are incorporated into two computable general equilibrium （CGE） models, respectively. The results prove that, compared with WPPS, WPS would contribute higher capacities for water savings with more farming imports and less loss in farming output; households in rural and urban areas would benefit from more income and food consumption, which would be matched by increasing farming imports. A policy recommendation is that eliminating the irrigation subsidy should pay more concerns on alleviating the negative effects on farming outputs. Moreover, improvements in agricultural labor mobility and water demand elasticity are needed to enable more focus on the water conservation policy, particularly in WPS.

The Social Welfare Housing Project and Its Effects in China

It was planned to build 36 million units of social welfare housing during the twelve-five2011-2015 in China.This paper introduces the estimation of owner occupied dwelling sector and develops a dynamic computable general equilibrium model for China's real estate and macro-economy,to simulate the policy effects.The simulation results show that this policy can meet the increased requirements of housing demand due to fast urbanization and improvement of living conditions,therefore it will effectively cool down the price boom of housing market.Meanwhile,although the investment on social welfare housing will reduce the investment on other sectors,it will still stimulate GDP growth.

Development of Optimal City Size Theory: A Critical View

Nowadays more and more people reside in metropolitan areas,and the impact of this phenomenon is clearly creating challenges for the environment,the economy and the society at large.It is therefore useful and instructive to consider the issue of optimal city size and review the literature over the past decades on optimal city size theory.Based on the progress in recent years of comparative analysis and inductive research,from both theoretical and empirical perspectives,this paper outlines the original definitions proposed for optimal city size and discusses some of the advantages and disadvantages of the various theories.The two prevailing models in the classical analysis of optimal city size,the Henry George Theorem(HGT)and the neoclassical approach,are examined later.This paper then introduces the supply oriented dynamic model(SOUDY model)and offers a plausible model for optimal city size based on the general equilibrium analysis,which is related to sustainable development.The results show that:(1)Simple optimal city size theories come from the cost-benefit analysis developed by main stream economics,and therefore cannot overcome the defect that the optimal size of cities is the same since the same production function;(2)The Henry George Theorem,which is one of the classical analysis paradigms of optimal city size,has been used more frequently in recent years to research the issues of optimal tax and public goods and has gradually lost its connection to the topic of optimal city size;(3)The neoclassical approach to optimal city size consists of externalities influencing optimal city size,the equilibrium and optimal models for city size,the optimal town,product variety and city size distribution.This kind of research is still in the mainstream of the study of optimal city size.Compared to single optimal city size,more attention is paid to the optimal distribution of city size;and(4)The supply-oriented dynamic model allows for the integration of a spatial dimension into the economic research of optimal city size,and the constraint between city level and city size is relaxed and this has more power to explain real-world problems.At the same time,the general equilibrium analysis,as a significant economic research method,provides a new perspective for the study of optimal city size.The supply-oriented dynamic model and general equilibrium analysis are two new research paradigms that deserve more attention in the analysis of optimal city size.

A DYNAMIC APPROACH TO CALCULATE SHADOW PRICES OF WATER RESOURCES FOR NINE MAJOR RIVERS IN CHINA

China is experienciug from serious water issues. There are many differences among the Nine Major Rivers basins of China in the construction of dikes, reservoirs, floodgates, flood discharge projects, flood diversion projects, water ecological constructions, water conservancy management, etc. The shadow prices of water resources for Nine Major Rivers can provide suggestions to the Chinese goverument. This article develops a dynamic shadow prices approach based on a multipeziod input-output optimizing model. Unlike previous approaches, the new model is based on the dynamic computable general equilibrium （DCGE） model to solve the problem of marginal long-term prices of water resources. First, definitions and algorithms of DCGE are elaborated. Second, the results of shadow prices of water resources for Nine Major Rivers in 1949-2050 in China using the National Water Conservancy input-holdiug-out in table for Nine Major Rivers in 1999 are listed. A conclusion of this article is that the shadow prices of water resources for Nine Major Rivers are largely based on the extent of scarcity. Selling prices of water resources should be revised via the usage of parameters representing shadow prices.