面向城市建成区扩展模拟的CA-Markov模型改进

对城市建成区扩展的预测是防止城市蔓延的重要管理依据。目前,元胞自动机-马尔可夫链模型,已成为城市建成区扩展预测的重要方法。该模型对指标权重的赋值方法较为敏感,以往的单一指标赋值法,影响了城市建成区扩展预测的精度和可信度。为此,本研究提出整合传统权重赋值法的AHP和逻辑回归模型改进CA-Markov模型。研究选择云南省大理市为案例,对2020、2030年的城市建成区扩展进行模拟和预测,最后进行精度验证。研究结果表明:(1)Kappa指数可达到96.8%,预测结果有较好的一致性。(2)大理市的城市建成区扩展均表现为继续向外扩展,以东南、西北方向和两片建成区之间为主要扩展方向。研究提供了组合权重赋值法改进CA-Markov模型,这将为规划者在未来规划中提供强有力的支持。

资源约束条件下装备可用度建模与分析

为了满足在可用度建模过程中资源约束条件下实现最优可用度,建立了一种平均稳态可用度模型。以单部件可修系统为研究对象,考虑保障资源的约束,在完美维修和立即更换的维修策略下,分别建立了当单元的寿命服从指数和一般分布情况下的平均稳态可用度模型,给出了相关证明和表达式;并通过算例验证了模型和算法的有效性。分析结果证明:在不考虑成本的前提下,增加维修设备能很好地提高系统的可用度。

Available parking space occupancy change characteristics and short-term forecasting model

Based on an available parking space occupancy （APSO） survey conducted in Nanjing, China, an APSO forecasting model is proposed. The APSO survey results indicate that the time series of APSO with different time-sections are periodical and self-similar, and the fluctuation of the APSO increases with the decrease in time-sections. Taking the short-time change behavior into account, an APSO forecasting model combined wavelet analysis and a weighted Markov chain is presented. In this model, an original APSO time series is first decomposed by wavelet analysis, and the results include low frequency signals representing the basic trends of APSO and several high frequency signals representing disturbances of the APSO. Then different Markov models are used to forecast the changes of low and high frequency signals, respectively. Finally, integrating the predicted results induces the final forecasted APSO. A case study verifies the applicability of the proposed model. The comparisons between measured and forecasted results show that the model is a competent model and its accuracy relies on real-time update of the APSO database.

Conditional autoregressive negative binomial model for analysis of crash count using Bayesian methods

In order to improve crash occurrence models to account for the influence of various contributing factors, a conditional autoregressive negative binomial （CAR-NB） model is employed to allow for overdispersion （tackled by the NB component）, unobserved heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation （captured by the CAR process）, using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and the Gibbs sampler. Statistical tests suggest that the CAR-NB model is preferred over the CAR-Poisson, NB, zero-inflated Poisson, zero-inflated NB models, due to its lower prediction errors and more robust parameter inference. The study results show that crash frequency and fatalities are positively associated with the number of lanes, curve length, annual average daily traffic （AADT） per lane, as well as rainfall. Speed limit and the distances to the nearest hospitals have negative associations with segment-based crash counts but positive associations with fatality counts, presumably as a result of worsened collision impacts at higher speed and time loss during transporting crash victims.

Forecast of Flood in Chaohu Lake Basin of China Based on Grey-Markov Theory

Flood is one kind of unexpected and the most common natural disasters, which is affected by many factors and has complex mechanism. At home and abroad, there is still no mature theory and method used for the long-term forecast of natural precipitation at present. In the present paper the disadvantages of grey GM (1, 1) and Markov chain are ana- lyzed, and Grey-Markov forecast theory about flood is put forward and then the modifying model is developed by making prediction of Chaohu Lake basin. Hydrological law was conducted based on the theoretical forecasts by grey system GM (1, 1) forecast model with improved Markov chain. The above method contained Stat-analysis, embodying scientific approach, precise forecast and its reliable results.

Residual life estimation based on bivariate Wiener degradation process with measurement errors

An adaptive method of residual life estimation for deteriorated products with two performance characteristics (PCs) was proposed, which was sharply different from existing work that only utilized one-dimensional degradation data. Once new degradation information was available, the residual life of the product being monitored could be estimated in an adaptive manner. Here, it was assumed that the degradation of each PC over time was governed by a Wiener degradation process and the dependency between them was characterized by the Frank copula function. A bivariate Wiener process model with measurement errors was used to model the degradation measurements. A two-stage method and the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method were combined to estimate the unknown parameters in sequence. Results from a numerical example about fatigue cracks show that the proposed method is valid as the relative error is small.

An adaptive genetic algorithm with diversity-guided mutation and its global convergence property

An adaptive genetic algorithm with diversity-guided mutation, which combines adaptive probabilities of crossover and mutation was proposed. By means of homogeneous finite Markov chains, it is proved that adaptive genetic algorithm with diversity-guided mutation and genetic algorithm with diversity-guided mutation converge to the global optimum if they maintain the best solutions, and the convergence of adaptive genetic algorithms with adaptive probabilities of crossover and mutation was studied. The performances of the above algorithms in optimizing several unimodal and multimodal functions were compared. The results show that for multimodal functions the average convergence generation of the adaptive genetic algorithm with diversity-guided mutation is about 900 less than that of (adaptive) genetic algorithm with adaptive probabilities and genetic algorithm with diversity-guided mutation, and the adaptive genetic algorithm with diversity-guided mutation does not lead to premature convergence. It is also shown that the better balance between overcoming premature convergence and quickening convergence speed can be gotten.

Nash Model Parameter Uncertainty Analysis by AM-MCMC Based on BFS and Probabilistic Flood Forecasting

A hydrologic model consists of several parameters which are usually calibrated based on observed hy-drologic processes. Due to the uncertainty of the hydrologic processes, model parameters are also uncertain, which further leads to the uncertainty of forecast results of a hydrologic model. Working with the Bayesian Forecasting System (BFS), Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation based Adaptive Metropolis method (AM-MCMC) was used to study parameter uncertainty of Nash model, while the probabilistic flood forecasting was made with the simu-lated samples of parameters of Nash model. The results of a case study shows that the AM-MCMC based on BFS proposed in this paper is suitable to obtain the posterior distribution of the parameters of Nash model according to the known information of the parameters. The use of Nash model and AM-MCMC based on BFS was able to make the probabilistic flood forecast as well as to find the mean and variance of flood discharge, which may be useful to estimate the risk of flood control decision.

Adaptive designs for sequential experiments

Various adaptive designs have been proposed and applied to clinical trials, bio assay, psychophysics, etc.Adaptive designs are also useful in high cost engineering trials.More and more people have been paying attention to these design methods. This paper introduces several broad families of designs, such as the play-the-winner rule, randomized play-the-winner rule and its generalization to the multi-arm case, doubly biased coin adaptive design, Markov chain model.

SPATIAL-TEMPORAL DYNAMICS OF REGIONAL CONVERGENCE AT COUNTY LEVEL IN JIANGSU

The dynamics of regional convergence include spatial and temporal dimensions. Spatial Markov chain can be used to explore how regions evolve by considering both individual regions and their geographic neighbors. Based on per capita GDP data set of 77 counties from 1978 to 2000, this paper attempts to investigate the spatial-temporal dynamics of regional convergence in Jiangsu. First, traditional Markov matrix for five per capita GDP classes is constructed for later comparison. Moreover, each region’s spatial lag is derived by averaging all its neighbors’ per capita GDP data. Conditioning on per capita GDP class of its spatial lag at the beginning of each year, spatial Markov transition probabilities of each region are calculated accordingly. Quantitatively, for a poor region, the probability of moving upward is 3.3% if it is surrounded by its poor neighbors, and even increases to 18.4% if it is surrounded by its rich neighbors, but it goes down to 6.2% on average if ignoring regional context. For a rich region, the probability of moving down ward is 1.2% if it is surrounded by its rich neighbors, but increases to 3.0% if it is surrounded by its poor neighbors, and averages 1.5% irrespective of regional context. Spatial analysis of regional GDP class transitions indicates those 10 upward moves of both regions and their neighbors are unexceptionally located in the southern Jiangsu, while downward moves of regions or their neighbors are almost in the northern Jiangsu. These empirical results provide a spatial explanation to the "convergence clubs" detected by traditional Markov chain.

Theoretical generalization of Markov chain random field from potential function perspective

The inner relationship between Markov random field(MRF) and Markov chain random field(MCRF) is discussed. MCRF is a special MRF for dealing with high-order interactions of sparse data. It consists of a single spatial Markov chain(SMC) that can move in the whole space. Generally, the theoretical backbone of MCRF is conditional independence assumption, which is a way around the problem of knowing joint probabilities of multi-points. This so-called Naive Bayes assumption should not be taken lightly and should be checked whenever possible because it is mathematically difficult to prove. Rather than trap in this independence proving, an appropriate potential function in MRF theory is chosen instead. The MCRF formulas are well deduced and the joint probability of MRF is presented by localization approach, so that the complicated parameter estimation algorithm and iteration process can be avoided. The MCRF model is then applied to the lithofacies identification of a region and compared with triplex Markov chain(TMC) simulation. Analyses show that the MCRF model will not cause underestimation problem and can better reflect the geological sedimentation process.

One-step random-walk process of nanoparticles in cement-based materials

Efficient modelling approaches capable of predicting the behavior and effects of nanoparticles in cement-based materials are required for conducting relevant experiments.From the microstructural characterization of a cement-nanoparticle system,this paper investigates the potential of cell-based weighted random-walk method to establish statistically significant relationships between chemical bonding and diffusion processes of nanoparticles within cement matrix.LaSr_(0.5)C_(0.5)O_(3)(LSCO)nanoparticles were employed to develop a discrete event system that accounts for the behavior of individual cells where nanoparticles and cement components were expected to interact.The stochastic model is based on annihilation(loss)and creation(gain)of a bond in the cell.The model considers both chemical reactions and transport mechanism of nanoparticles from cementitious cells,along with cement hydration process.This approach may be useful for simulating nanoparticle transport in complex 2D cement-based materials systems.

An Improved Markov Chain Model Based on Autocorrelation and Entropy Techniques and Its Application to State Prediction of Water Resources

According to the relationships among state transition probability matrixes with different step lengths, an improved Markov chain model based on autocorrelation and entropy techniques was introduced. In the improved Markov chain model, the state transition probability matrixes can be adjusted. The steps of the historical state of the event, which was significantly related to the future state of the event, were determined by the autocorrelation technique, and the impact weights of the event historical state on the event future state were determined by the entropy technique. The presented model was applied to predicting annual precipitation and annual runoff states, showing that the improved model is of higher precision than those existing Markov chain models, and the determination of the state transition probability matrixes and the weights is more reasonable. The physical concepts of the improved model are distinct, and its computation process is simple and direct, thus, the presented model is sufficiently general to be applicable to the prediction problems in hydrology and water resources.

An efficient priority service model with two-level-polling scheme

This paper considers an efficient priority service model with two-level-polling scheme which the message packets conform to the discrete-time Geom/G/1 queue with multiple vacations and bulk arrival. By the embedded Markov chain theory and the probability generating function method, we set up the mathematics functions and give closed form expressions for obtaining the mean cyclic period （MCP）, the mean queue length （MQL） and the mean waiting time （MWT） characteristics, the analytical results are also verified through extensive computer simulations. The performance analysis reveals that this priority polling scheme can gives better efficiency as well as impartiality in terms of system characteristics, and it can be used for differentiating priority service to guarantee better QoS and system stability in design and improvement of MAC protocol.

Reservoir lithology stochastic simulation based on Markov random fields

Markov random fields(MRF) have potential for predicting and simulating petroleum reservoir facies more accurately from sample data such as logging, core data and seismic data because they can incorporate interclass relationships. While, many relative studies were based on Markov chain, not MRF, and using Markov chain model for 3D reservoir stochastic simulation has always been the difficulty in reservoir stochastic simulation. MRF was proposed to simulate type variables(for example lithofacies) in this work. Firstly, a Gibbs distribution was proposed to characterize reservoir heterogeneity for building 3-D(three-dimensional) MRF. Secondly, maximum likelihood approaches of model parameters on well data and training image were considered. Compared with the simulation results of MC(Markov chain), the MRF can better reflect the spatial distribution characteristics of sand body.

A distributed routing algorithm based-on simplified topology in LEO satellite networks

In this paper, a distributed muting strategy based on simplified topology （DRBST） was proposed for LEO satellite networks. The topology of LEO satellite networks was simplified aiming at minimizing intersatellite links handover number. To optimize the route based on the simplified topology, we considered not only the transmission delay but also the queuing delay and the processing delay, which were analyzed using Markov chain and determined using a novel methodology. The DRBST algorithm was simulated in a LEO satellite networks model built using OPNET. The simulation results demonstrate that the low complexity DRBST algorithm can guarantee end-to-end delay bound. Moreover, the muting protocol cost is much less than traditional algorithms.

Markov chain-based platoon recognition model in mixed traffic with human-driven and connected and autonomous vehicles

Many vehicle platoons are interrupted while traveling on roads,especially at urban signalized intersections.One reason for such interruptions is the inability to exchange real-time information between traditional human-driven vehicles and intersection infrastructure.Thus,this paper develops a Markov chain-based model to recognize platoons.A simulation experiment is performed in Vissim based on field data extracted from video recordings to prove the model’s applicability.The videos,recorded with a high-definition camera,contain field driving data from three Tesla vehicles,which can achieve Level 2 autonomous driving.The simulation results show that the recognition rate exceeds 80%when the connected and autonomous vehicle penetration rate is higher than 0.7.Whether a vehicle is upstream or downstream of an intersection also affects the performance of platoon recognition.The platoon recognition model developed in this paper can be used as a signal control input at intersections to reduce the unnecessary interruption of vehicle platoons and improve traffic efficiency.

Performance analysis of optical burst switching node with limited wavelength conversion capabilities

The systematical and scalable frameworks were provided for estimating the blocking probabilities under asynchronous traffic in optical burst switching(OBS) nodes with limited wavelength conversion capability(LWCC) . The relevant system architectures of limited range and limited number of wavelength converters(WCs) deployed by a share-per-fiber(SPF) mode were developed,and the novel theoretical analysis of node blocking probability was derived by combining the calculation of discouraged arrival rate in a birth-death process and two-dimensional Markov chain model of SPF. The simulation results on single node performance verify the accuracy and effectiveness of the analysis models. Under most scenarios,it is difficult to distinguish the plots generated by the analysis and simulation. As the conversion degree increases,the accuracy of the analysis model worsens slightly. However,the utmost error on burst loss probability is far less than one order of magnitude and hence,still allows for an accurate estimate. Some results are of actual significance to the construction of next-generation commercial OBS backbones.

Spectrum Sensing Model for Wireless Internet of Things

In the last few years, the number of devices operating in wireless Internet of Things （IoT） has experienced tremendous growth. On the other hand, the growth results in spectrum scarcity. Cog- nitive Radio （CR） systems have been proposed to efficiently exploit the spectra that have been assigned but are underutilized. In this paper, a spectrum sensing model based on Markov chain is proposed to predict the spectrum hole for CR in wireless IoT. Theoretical analysis and simulation results have been evaluated that a Markov model with two- state or four-state works well enough in wireless loT whereas a model with more states is not necessary for it is complex.

Support Vector Machines(SVM)-Markov Chain Prediction Model of Mining Water Inflow

This study was conducted to establish a Support Vector Machines(SVM)-Markov Chain prediction model for prediction of mining water inflow. According to the raw data sequence, the Support Vector Machines(SVM) model was built, and then revised by means of a Markov state change probability matrix. Through dividing the state and analyzing absolute errors and relative errors and other indexes of the measured value and the fitted value of SVM, the prediction results were improved. Finally,the model was used to calculate relative errors. Through predicting and analyzing mining water inflow, the prediction results of the model were satisfactory. The results of this study enlarge the application scope of the Support Vector Machines(SVM) prediction model and provide a new method for scientific forecasting water inflow in coal mining.