基于Ordered Probit模型的人车冲突安全影响因素研究

为探究和定量分析人车冲突严重程度的影响因素,通过采集3个信号交叉口的人车冲突视频数据,利用T-Analyst标定人车轨迹并计算冲突指标(PET),采用85%位累计频率曲线法划分人车冲突等级;从人、车、路及环境特征中选取10个因素作为变量,构建Ordered Probit模型,以确立人车冲突严重程度的显著影响因素,并通过边际效应定量分析不同显著因素的影响程度。研究结果表明:行人闯红灯情况、年龄、行人交通量、人行道占用情况、人行道起点终点、车辆速度变化及车流量是人车冲突严重程度的显著因素,相较于各自参考量,行人闯红灯、车辆加速通过冲突点、人行道起点及老年人造成严重冲突的概率分别增加8.2%,5.9%,5.1%,4.4%;相较于低流量的交通流,较高流量的车流和行人交通流使得严重冲突的概率分别增加3.7%,2.5%,但人行道占用使得严重冲突的概率下降6.8%。研究结果可为信号交叉口行人过街交通安全设施的设计和实施提供理论依据。

Lottery Numbers and Ordered Statistics

The lottery has long captivated the imagination of players worldwide, offering the tantalizing possibility of life-changing wins. While winning the lottery is largely a matter of chance, as lottery drawings are typically random and unpredictable. Some people use the lottery terminal randomly generates numbers for them, some players choose numbers that hold personal significance to them, such as birthdays, anniversaries, or other important dates, some enthusiasts have turned to statistical analysis as a means to analyze past winning numbers identify patterns or frequencies. In this paper, we use order statistics to estimate the probability of specific order of numbers or number combinations being drawn in future drawings.

Intelligent Decision-Making in Warehouse Management: How AI Automation Improves Inventory Tracking, Order Fulfillment, and Logistics Efficiency Compared to Drone Technology

This paper analyzes how artificial intelligence (AI) automation can improve warehouse management compared to emerging technologies like drone usage. Specifically, we evaluate AI’s impact on crucial warehouse functions—inventory tracking, order fulfillment, and logistics efficiency. Our findings indicate AI automation enables real-time inventory visibility, optimized picking routes, and dynamic delivery scheduling, which drones cannot match. AI better leverages data insights for intelligent decision-making across warehouse operations, supporting improved productivity and lower operating costs.

A Note on an Order Level Inventory Model with Varying Two-Phased Demand and Time-Proportional Deterioration

The main purpose of this paper is to generalize the effect of two-phased demand and variable deterioration within the EOQ (Economic Order Quantity) framework. The rate of deterioration is a linear function of time. The two-phased demand function states the constant function for a certain period and the quadratic function of time for the rest part of the cycle time. No shortages as well as partial backlogging are allowed to occur. The mathematical expressions are derived for determining the optimal cycle time, order quantity and total cost function. An easy-to-use working procedure is provided to calculate the above quantities. A couple of numerical examples are cited to explain the theoretical results and sensitivity analysis of some selected examples is carried out.

The Convergence Rate of Fréchet Distribution under the Second-Order Regular Variation Condition

In this article we consider the asymptotic behavior of extreme distribution with the extreme value index γ>0 . The rates of uniform convergence for Fréchet distribution are constructed under the second-order regular variation condition.

Comparative Studies between Picard’s and Taylor’s Methods of Numerical Solutions of First Ordinary Order Differential Equations Arising from Real-Life Problems

To solve the first-order differential equation derived from the problem of a free-falling object and the problem arising from Newton’s law of cooling, the study compares the numerical solutions obtained from Picard’s and Taylor’s series methods. We have carried out a descriptive analysis using the MATLAB software. Picard’s and Taylor’s techniques for deriving numerical solutions are both strong mathematical instruments that behave similarly. All first-order differential equations in standard form that have a constant function on the right-hand side share this similarity. As a result, we can conclude that Taylor’s approach is simpler to use, more effective, and more accurate. We will contrast Rung Kutta and Taylor’s methods in more detail in the following section.

Introducing the nth-Order Features Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology for Nonlinear Systems (nth-FASAM-N): I. Mathematical Framework

This work presents the “nth-Order Feature Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology for Nonlinear Systems” (abbreviated as “nth-FASAM-N”), which will be shown to be the most efficient methodology for computing exact expressions of sensitivities, of any order, of model responses with respect to features of model parameters and, subsequently, with respect to the model’s uncertain parameters, boundaries, and internal interfaces. The unparalleled efficiency and accuracy of the nth-FASAM-N methodology stems from the maximal reduction of the number of adjoint computations (which are considered to be “large-scale” computations) for computing high-order sensitivities. When applying the nth-FASAM-N methodology to compute the second- and higher-order sensitivities, the number of large-scale computations is proportional to the number of “model features” as opposed to being proportional to the number of model parameters (which are considerably more than the number of features).When a model has no “feature” functions of parameters, but only comprises primary parameters, the nth-FASAM-N methodology becomes identical to the extant nth CASAM-N (“nth-Order Comprehensive Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology for Nonlinear Systems”) methodology. Both the nth-FASAM-N and the nth-CASAM-N methodologies are formulated in linearly increasing higher-dimensional Hilbert spaces as opposed to exponentially increasing parameter-dimensional spaces thus overcoming the curse of dimensionality in sensitivity analysis of nonlinear systems. Both the nth-FASAM-N and the nth-CASAM-N are incomparably more efficient and more accurate than any other methods (statistical, finite differences, etc.) for computing exact expressions of response sensitivities of any order with respect to the model’s features and/or primary uncertain parameters, boundaries, and internal interfaces.

Introducing the nth-Order Features Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology for Nonlinear Systems (nth-FASAM-N): II. Illustrative Example

This work highlights the unparalleled efficiency of the “nth-Order Function/ Feature Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology for Nonlinear Systems” (nth-FASAM-N) by considering the well-known Nordheim-Fuchs reactor dynamics/safety model. This model describes a short-time self-limiting power excursion in a nuclear reactor system having a negative temperature coefficient in which a large amount of reactivity is suddenly inserted, either intentionally or by accident. This nonlinear paradigm model is sufficiently complex to model realistically self-limiting power excursions for short times yet admits closed-form exact expressions for the time-dependent neutron flux, temperature distribution and energy released during the transient power burst. The nth-FASAM-N methodology is compared to the extant “nth-Order Comprehensive Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology for Nonlinear Systems” (nth-CASAM-N) showing that: (i) the 1st-FASAM-N and the 1st-CASAM-N methodologies are equally efficient for computing the first-order sensitivities;each methodology requires a single large-scale computation for solving the “First-Level Adjoint Sensitivity System” (1st-LASS);(ii) the 2nd-FASAM-N methodology is considerably more efficient than the 2nd-CASAM-N methodology for computing the second-order sensitivities since the number of feature-functions is much smaller than the number of primary parameters;specifically for the Nordheim-Fuchs model, the 2nd-FASAM-N methodology requires 2 large-scale computations to obtain all of the exact expressions of the 28 distinct second-order response sensitivities with respect to the model parameters while the 2nd-CASAM-N methodology requires 7 large-scale computations for obtaining these 28 second-order sensitivities;(iii) the 3rd-FASAM-N methodology is even more efficient than the 3rd-CASAM-N methodology: only 2 large-scale computations are needed to obtain the exact expressions of the 84 distinct third-order response sensitivities with respect to the Nordheim-Fuchs model’s parameters when applying the 3rd-FASAM-N methodology, while the application of the 3rd-CASAM-N methodology requires at least 22 large-scale computations for computing the same 84 distinct third-order sensitivities. Together, the nth-FASAM-N and the nth-CASAM-N methodologies are the most practical methodologies for computing response sensitivities of any order comprehensively and accurately, overcoming the curse of dimensionality in sensitivity analysis.

Existence of Monotone Positive Solution for a Fourth-Order Three-Point BVP with Sign-Changing Green’s Function

This paper is concerned with the following fourth-order three-point boundary value problem , where , we discuss the existence of positive solutions to the above problem by applying to the fixed point theory in cones and iterative technique.

跨境电商出口满意度的影响研究——基于ORDERED、LOGIT方法的实证分析

本文使用欧洲晴雨表(Eurobarometer)数据,运用Ordered Logit模型计量方法对跨境电商满意度的影响因素感进行了研究。实证结果表明,个体因素中年纪、收入对于跨境购物满意度没有显著影响;物流因素包邮、丢件率、物流准时送达等因素提高跨境购物满意度的概率;品牌认知度和互联网信任度与跨境购物满意度显著正相关;个体样本数据而言欧盟男性整体比女性对于跨境购买更满意,但涉及到收入、包邮等其他因素,丢包、物流准时送达等因素更能提高女性对跨境购物满意度的概率。因此,跨境电商的发展应该完善物流系统、尽快确立信任机制。便捷当地支付方式等措施提高跨境购物满意度,进而提高我国跨境电商的出口。

移动设备用户的数字素养对信息安全保护意愿和行为的影响研究——基于 Ordered Probit 模型的估计

[研究目的]数字素养作为数字经济时代社会公众的核心素养,为移动设备用户的信息安全保护意愿和行为的研究提供新的思路和动力。[研究方法]从理论层面探讨移动设备用户数字素养对信息安全保护意愿和行为的影响效应及其传导路径,并基于实际调查数据,运用Ordered Probit模型,对影响效应和传导路径进行实证检验。[研究结论]研究发现:移动设备用户的数字素养显著促进了信息安全保护意愿和行为,在考虑内生性问题之后,研究结论依然成立,且促进效应更为明显;反应效能和自我效能在数字素养影响信息安全保护意愿和行为间起传导作用,感知威胁的传导作用则不显著;提升移动设备用户的数字素养水平能够缩小信息安全保护意愿与行为之间的差异,有助于用户将信息安全保护意愿转化为保护行为;通过更换自变量测度方式及替换估计方法进行稳健性检验,结论仍然成立。

Unitariness in Ordered Semigroups

We introduce the concepts of unitary, almost unitary and strongly almost unitary subset of an ordered semigroup. For the notions of almost unitary and strongly almost unitary subset of an ordered semigroup, we use the notion of translational hull of an ordered semigroup. If (S,⋅,≤) is an ordered semigroup having an element e such that e ≤ e2 and U is a nonempty subset of S such that u ≤ eu, u ≤ ue for all u ∈ U, we show that U is almost unitary in S if and only if U is unitary in . Also if (S,⋅,≤) is an ordered semigroup, e ∉ S, U is a nonempty subset of S, Se:= S ∪ {e} and Ue:= U ∪ {e}, we give conditions that an (“extension” of S) ordered semigroup and the subset Ue of Se must satisfy in order for U to be almost unitary or strongly almost unitary in S (in case U is strongly almost unitary in S, then the given conditions are equivalent).

数据产权刑法保护模式的构建

数据产权是一种具有财产权属性的新型权利,该权利与虚拟财产权和知识产权具有明显差异。数据产权属于刑法保护的公法益范畴,其应归属于市场经济秩序法益之中。现行刑法有关财产犯罪、知识产权犯罪和数据犯罪的规定均无法实现对数据产权的全面保护。刑法对数据产权的保护应以促进数据流通为主要目标,且应当覆盖数据处理的各流程阶段。对侵犯数据产权行为进行刑法规制时,应对“未经同意”获取数据行为审慎入罪。应增设妨害数据流通管理秩序罪,对“情节严重的”妨害数据流通管理秩序行为予以刑法规制。

智能助产术教学法——以“智能苏格拉底会话机器人”教学实践为例

当前,生成式人工智能与学生的人机会话主要是“知识讲述”型会话关系,这会影响学生的高阶思维能力发展。解决这一问题的关键是,如何将人机“知识讲述”型会话关系,转变为“知识转化”型会话关系。为此,研究者以助产术理论、ChatGPT、学习分析和腾讯QQ工具为基础,探索智能助产术教学法的学习发生机制,开发智能苏格拉底会话机器人,构建智能助产术教学模式。本研究采用准实验方法,以“远程教育学”课程为教学内容,以教育技术学专业本科生为对象,开展以智能会话机器人支持的教学实验。实验结果表明,智能助产术教学与直接使用ChatGPT的教学相比,能显著提升学生的问题解决能力、创新能力和协作学习能力,但是对学习绩效、批判性思维能力和自我效能感的影响不显著。为提高教学效果,研究者需提升计算机的系统算力,开发批判性思维学习支架,构建人机适切性互动机制,研制自我效能感提升策略。

有组织教研:人工智能环境下教师研修的有序进化

传统教师教研形式因客观性不强、持续性不够、衔接性不足,与时代所需要的高质量教研相悖,影响了教师的专业发展。基于生态进化理论,建构以人工智能技术为教师提供选题、过程支持、资源制度、工具辅助和协同机制的有组织教研模式,以提升教研与教师的个体适配,形成有组织的多主体行动网络,并在有序原理和整体原理的框架下,建构了智能技术支持的教师有组织教研运行模型。有组织教研的关键问题是教师动态需求的系统捕获、内容进化的智能控制、自适应路径的有效调节、研修空间的适应性调整、语义关联的建立,并形成面对理论与实践冲突、转化机制异化、主体与相关要素不适切等问题的处理机制。要实现人工智能支持的有组织教研,需要按照有组织教研的运行建立设计人工智能元平台,布局大数据采集平台,开发教育人工智能的算力,并在制度和理念的双向演进中通过实践进行优化,实现人工智能下教师研修模式的迭代。

考虑载客状态的改进孤立森林浮动车异常数据检测算法

为提高浮动车数据中异常数据检测能力及不同载客状态下的模型检测分析能力,提出基于S-DTA-IIForest(Summation&Difference Third Order Average&Improvement-Isolation Forest)的浮动车数据异常检测算法。构建由相邻两项求和(S)、三阶求和平均差分(DTA)的二维度空间SDTA特征向量;提出差额累计更新和动态区分辨识的改进孤立森林IIForest算法,通过设置停止阈值参数,避免当出现新样本异常值分数大于停止阈值时,仅更新样本不更新孤立森林模型的问题,设计每个二叉树区分辨识度参数,区分辨识度位于停止区间时停止二叉树生长,提高算法收敛性能,以ROC(Receiver Operating Characteristic)曲线下面积AUC(Area Under ROC Cure)、F1-score为指标对模型精度进行对比分析,并以重庆市中心城区学府大道开展实例验证。结果表明:本文S-DTA-IIForest组合算法AUC、F1-score分别为86.63%、0.89,AUC较传统孤立森林IForest(Isolation Forest)提高32.4%,运行效率提高1.29%,具有收敛速度更快、精度更高的优势,载客条件下模型AUC、F1-score较未载客分别提高7.7%、10.8%,组合算法对载客数据有更高的检测精度,且未载客状态数据异常率较载客状态增加71.4%,未载客数据异常率更高。

人机争论探究法:一种争论式智能会话机器人支持的学生高阶思维能力培养模式探索

大量学生利用生成式人工智能生成作业,导致了学生高阶思维能力难以有效培养。在人机会话中嵌入“争论噪音”,将是解决这一问题的可能途径。研究采用准实验研究设计,基于高阶思维、建构主义和争论学习理论,利用文心一言、学习分析和腾讯QQ等技术工具,开发了争论式智能会话机器人,构建了人机争论探究法教学模式。结果表明,实验组的学习成绩、批判性思维能力、问题解决能力和学习态度显著优于对照组,但是创新能力效果不显著。为提高人机争论学习效果,教师需要构建特定的高阶思维学习支架,优化人机争论学习的算法机制,培养学生的人机争论素养,研制师生机三元协同争论机制。

Existence and Uniqueness Results for a Fully Third-Order Boundary Value Problem

The boundary value problems of the third-order ordinary differential equation have many practical application backgrounds and their some special cases have been studied by many authors. However, few scholars have studied the boundary value problems of the complete third-order differential equations u′′′(t) = f (t,u(t),u′(t),u′′(t)). In this paper, we discuss the existence and uniqueness of solutions and positive solutions of the fully third-order ordinary differential equation on [0,1] with the boundary condition u(0) = u′(1) = u′′(1) = 0. Under some inequality conditions on nonlinearity f some new existence and uniqueness results of solutions and positive solutions are obtained.

网约车平台算法个性化定价、乘客履约率及其监管对策

网约车平台算法个性化定价产生了复杂的市场影响,相比传统出租车服务,网约车乘客违约率达30%左右,因此算法个性化定价对乘客违约率的影响机制以及乘客是否履约的关键特征值得探索。文中尝试运用矩形Hotelling模型建立算法个性化定价与乘客违约率的因果关联机制,以两个网约车平台之间的Stackelberg博弈模型揭示歧视性定价、乘客违约率与平台之间竞争强度的关系。进一步运用网约车平台订单大数据,以Bhattacharyya距离、提升决策树及改进拉斯维加斯方法(包裹法)等归纳学习工具对网约车平台百万量级订单进行数据挖掘,找出决定乘客是否履约的关键特征。分析结果表明,平台进行个性化定价时乘客的最终消费选择主要取决于价格因素;而改进车辆匹配、派单策略及减少乘客候车时间可显著提高订单履约率。研究结果对网约车平台完善定价及运营策略以维持双边市场用户数量、保证平台持续成功运营具有重要参考价值,也为反垄断部门干预平台个性化定价提供了理论依据。

Six New Sets of the Non-Elementary Jef-Family-Functions that Are Giving Solutions to Some Second-Order Nonlinear Autonomous ODEs

In this paper, we define some new sets of non-elementary functions in a group of solutions x(t) that are sine and cosine to the upper limit of integration in a non-elementary integral that can be arbitrary. We are using Abel’s methods, described by Armitage and Eberlein. The key is to start with a non-elementary integral function, differentiating and inverting, and then define a set of three functions that belong together. Differentiating these functions twice gives second-order nonlinear ODEs that have the defined set of functions as solutions. We will study some of the second-order nonlinear ODEs, especially those that exhibit limit cycles. Using the methods described in this paper, it is possible to define many other sets of non-elementary functions that are giving solutions to some second-order nonlinear autonomous ODEs.