By combining conventional grey correlation analysis, grey clustering method and grey forecasting methods with our multi-goal forecast thoughts and the techniques of grey time series processing, we develop six differen...By combining conventional grey correlation analysis, grey clustering method and grey forecasting methods with our multi-goal forecast thoughts and the techniques of grey time series processing, we develop six different grey earthquake forecast models in this paper. Using the record of major earthquakes in Japan from 1872 to 1995, we forecast future earthquakes in Japan. We develop an earthquake forecast model. By using the major earthquakes in Japan from 1872 to 1984, we forecast earthquakes from 1985 to 1995 and check the precision of the grey earthquake models. We find that the grey system theory can be applied to earthquake forecast. We introduce the above analysis methods and give a real example to evaluate and forecast. We also further discuss the problems of how to improve the precision of earthquake forecast and how to strengthen the forecast models in future research.展开更多
Two red earth sections from the Chengdu Plain in Sichuan Province are dated using geomagnetic methods. The Brunhes/Matuyama (B/M) reversal boundary is recognized within the upper parts of the two sections,and the Jara...Two red earth sections from the Chengdu Plain in Sichuan Province are dated using geomagnetic methods. The Brunhes/Matuyama (B/M) reversal boundary is recognized within the upper parts of the two sections,and the Jaramillo normal subzone occurs in the middle-lower parts of the vermiculated red soil (VRS),which indicate that the parent material for the VRS deposited in the middle Quaternary. Sedimentologic and geochemical studies suggest that the Chengdu Clay and part of the parent material for the VRS are of aeolian origin. Pollen analysis indicates that the Chengdu Plain was mainly covered by needle-leaved forest with a cool to cool temperate humid climate when the parent material for the VRS deposited. The relatively cool to cool temperate climatic condition in the Chengdu Plain in the middle Quaternary,which may be caused by the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau,was a response to the geo-environmental changes of global significance.展开更多
文摘By combining conventional grey correlation analysis, grey clustering method and grey forecasting methods with our multi-goal forecast thoughts and the techniques of grey time series processing, we develop six different grey earthquake forecast models in this paper. Using the record of major earthquakes in Japan from 1872 to 1995, we forecast future earthquakes in Japan. We develop an earthquake forecast model. By using the major earthquakes in Japan from 1872 to 1984, we forecast earthquakes from 1985 to 1995 and check the precision of the grey earthquake models. We find that the grey system theory can be applied to earthquake forecast. We introduce the above analysis methods and give a real example to evaluate and forecast. We also further discuss the problems of how to improve the precision of earthquake forecast and how to strengthen the forecast models in future research.
基金the Geological Survey Program (Grant No. 1212010541401)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40472088 and 40572169)
文摘Two red earth sections from the Chengdu Plain in Sichuan Province are dated using geomagnetic methods. The Brunhes/Matuyama (B/M) reversal boundary is recognized within the upper parts of the two sections,and the Jaramillo normal subzone occurs in the middle-lower parts of the vermiculated red soil (VRS),which indicate that the parent material for the VRS deposited in the middle Quaternary. Sedimentologic and geochemical studies suggest that the Chengdu Clay and part of the parent material for the VRS are of aeolian origin. Pollen analysis indicates that the Chengdu Plain was mainly covered by needle-leaved forest with a cool to cool temperate humid climate when the parent material for the VRS deposited. The relatively cool to cool temperate climatic condition in the Chengdu Plain in the middle Quaternary,which may be caused by the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau,was a response to the geo-environmental changes of global significance.
