Proposed Wave Momentum Source for Generating the 22-Year Solar Cycle

For the 22-year solar cycle oscillation there is no external time dependent source. A nonlinear oscillation, the solar cycle must be generated internally, and Babcock-Leighton models apply an artificial nonlinear source term that can simulate the observations—which leaves open the question of the actual source mechanism for the solar cycle. Addressing this question, we propose to take guidance from the wave mechanism that generates the 2-year Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) in the Earth atmosphere. Upward propagating gravity waves, eastward and westward, deposit momentum to generate the observed zonal wind oscillation. On the Sun, helioseismology has provided a thorough understanding of the acoustic p-waves, which propagate down into the convective envelope guided by the increasing temperature and related propagation velocity. Near the tachocline with low turbulent viscosity, the waves propagating eastward and westward can produce an axisymmetric 22-year oscillation of the zonal flow velocities that can generate the magnetic solar dynamo. Following the Earth model, waves in opposite directions can generate in the Sun wind and magnetic field oscillations in opposite directions, the proposition of a potential solar cycle mechanism.

基于Meta分析的围栏封育和人工植被建设对北方风沙区植物-土壤碳氮磷化学计量的影响

围栏封育和人工植被建设作为两种有效的退化草地生态系统恢复措施,在中国北方风沙区的草地管理中被广泛应用。为明确中国北方风沙区内生态恢复措施对植物-土壤碳(C)、氮(N)、磷(P)化学计量特征的影响,本文选取了52篇相关文献进行Meta分析,通过亚组分析探讨退化草地采取两种恢复措施(围栏封育和人工植被建设)不同年限(≤5年、5~15年、>15年)后植物-土壤C、N、P化学计量的变化。结果表明:1)围封与人工植被建设均可显著增加土壤有机C、全N和全P含量(P<0.05),各元素含量的增加幅度随着土层加深而降低;围封恢复后植物群落叶片和根系全C含量分别显著增加3.26%和4.72%(P<0.05),叶片全N和全P含量分别显著降低18.41%和44.54%(P<0.05);2)两种措施相比,3种恢复年限尤其是恢复年限>15年时,人工植被建设后土壤有机C含量、全N含量增加幅度更大,说明人工植被建设对土壤的恢复效果更好;3)长期围封(>15年)下C꞉N显著增大38.97%(P<0.05),说明围封措施可能引起土壤中N元素缺乏加剧;人工植被建设后期表层土壤C꞉P和N꞉P分别显著增大116.78%和89.04%(P<0.05),说明人工植被建设可能引起土壤中P元素缺乏。两种恢复措施均能提高土壤质量,但土壤恢复前初始有机C含量低,C元素增长率高于N、P元素增长率,在长期围封与人工植被建设后期分别出现土壤中的N、P元素缺乏,需要向土壤中补充N、P元素,进一步促进退化草地的恢复。

Precipitation cycles in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River （1736-2000）

Based on the long-term precipitation series with annual time resolution in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and its four sub-regions during 1736-2000 reconstructed from the rainfall and snowfall archives of the Qing Dynasty, the precipitation cycles are analyzed by wavelet analysis and the possible climate forcings, which drive the precipitation changes, are explored. The results show that： the precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River has inter-annual and inter-decadal oscillations like 2-4a, quasi-22a and 70-80a. The 2-4a cycle is linked with El Nino events, and the precipitation is lower than normal year in the occurrence of the El Nino year or the next year; for the quasi-22a and the 70-80a cycles, Wolf Sun Spot Numbers and Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） coincide with the two cycle signals. However, on a 70-80a time scale, the coincidence between solar activity and precipitation is identified before 1830, and strong （weak） solar activity is generally correlated to the dry （wet） periods; after 1830, the solar activity changes to 80-100a quasi-century long oscillation, and the adjusting action to the precipitation is becoming weaker and weaker; the coincidence between PDO and precipitation is shown in the whole time series. Moreover, in recent 100 years, PDO is becoming a pace-maker of the precipitation on the 70-80a time scale.

The Characteristics of the X-ray Flares (1-8, GOES) of the Different Classes and Their Variations in Two Cycles of Solar Activity

The X ray (1-8?) flux data of the solar flares are analyzed. The data used were obtained on GOES satellite during the solar cycles 21 and 22. The total number of the flares is more than 33000. The flare distributions according to their X ray classes, durations and intensities are constructed. The evolution of these distributions in solar cycle as well as from cycle to cycle is studied. The statistical analysis of the flare characteristics is made. There was confirmed the result of more frequent occurrence for powerful flares in cycle 21 decline phase.

Introduction of a New Cycle in Replacement of Metonic: An Ideal Solution towards a Deviation Free Luni-Solar Calendar

Molad is simply an interval between two successive new moon timelines with respect to the line joining the Sun and the Earth i.e., with respect to the Sun as seen from the Earth, which in scientific terms is referred as lunation or “synodic lunar month”. Though synodic lunar month may vary by up to ±0.7 days locally, the length of mean synodic lunar month is constant over a long period of time and is a crucial value in determining the luni-solar calendar’s new months similar to Hebrew calendar’s “Rashei Hodesh”. Based on the Metonic cycle the luni-solar Hebrew calendar adds 07 intercalary months in 19 solar years. This hypothesis proposes a new cycle instead of the Metonic cycle towards eliminating the deviation of the calendar incurred in the long course of time. The research analyzed that application of the conventional Metonic cycle to luni-solar calendar is erroneous, which theoretically leads Hebrew calendar to absorb extra 11 days (approx.) by 2053 years after inception. The study pointed out that through the application of 2116 - 2053 lunar-solar years cycle instead of 235 - 228 lunar-solar months based Metonic cycle, formulation of a far better high precession luni-solar calendar is possible and also both lunar and solar sides of the luni-solar calendar became fully balanced and harmonized.

The Lynx and Hare Data of 200 Years as the Nonlinear Conserving Interaction Based on Noether’s Conservation Laws and Stability

We applied n-variable conserving nonlinear differential equations (n-CNDEs) to the population data of the 10-year cycles of Canadian lynx (1821-2016) and the snowshoe hare (1845-1921). Modeling external effects as perturbations to population dynamics, recovering and restorations from disintegrations (or extinctions), stability and survival strategies are discussed in terms of the conservation law inherent to dynamical interactions among species. The 2-variable conserving nonlinear interaction (2CNIs) is extended to 3, 4, ... n-variable conserving nonlinear interactions (n-CNIs) of species by adjusting minimum unknown parameters. The population cycle of species is a manifestation of conservation laws existing in complicated ecosystems, which is suggested from the CNDE analysis as a standard rhythm of interactions. The ecosystem is a consequence of the long history of nonlinear interactions and evolutions among life-beings and the natural environment, and the population dynamics of an ecosystem are observed as approximate CNIs. Physical analyses of the conserving quantity in nonlinear interactions would help us understand why and how they have developed. The standard rhythm found in nonlinear interactions should be considered as a manifestation of the survival strategy and the survival of the fittest to the balance of biological systems. The CNDEs and nonlinear differential equations with time-dependent coefficients would help find useful physical information on the survival of the fittest and symbiosis in an ecosystem.

论太阳轨道运动不绕过太阳系质心的准2400年周期成因

K指数越大表明行星系统在某一径向方向会合的程度越大.K指数极值标定的太阳轨道运动半径的变化具有凸显的准20 a、179 a、2400 a周期嵌套关系.随时间尺度的增大,K指数极大值不但呈现出显著的准2400 a周期,而且太阳系质心在太阳本体内外持续的时间长度的变化也具有准2400 a周期.这其中隐含太阳轨道运动不绕过太阳系质心的准2400 a周期特殊规律.本文以木星和太阳连线为基准方向,创建了行星会合向量指数K.K向量指数图像清晰地呈现出由13~14个准179 a包络线周期(其中3~4个周期谷值出现K<0)构成的太阳轨道运动不绕过太阳系质心的准2400a周期.这一发现为科学辨识太阳轨道运动特征的复杂性又向前推进一步.

基于GNSS数据的第24太阳活动周中国电离层变化特性分析

本文利用第24太阳活动周中国区域电离层的TEC数据和太阳活动修正参数F10.7p数据,分析了中国区域电离层在24太阳活动周内的变化特性。实验结果表明:总体上,中国区域TEC纬度变化特征显著;时间上,电离层年度异常、半年异常和季节异常非常明显;区域上,中国不同纬度区域电离层变化特性并不相同,中国低纬度区域电离层半年度异常明显,中高纬度区域的半年度异常现象跟太阳活动有关。在太阳活动高年,中国中高纬度区域半年异常显著;太阳活动低年则反之。本文基于太阳活动数据和TEC数据,对中国地区电离层的时空变化特征进行了研究,为中国区域电离层的建模和预测提供参考。

0-3岁婴幼儿照护家庭托育的需求供给研究:基于需要层次论与PDCA循环理论

建构可持续和真正有效的托育服务体系,关键在于0-3岁婴幼儿家庭的真实托育服务需求和社会的有效托育服务供给。运用需要层次论检视0-3婴幼儿照护家庭养育需求现状与家庭托育需求情况,以家庭托育服务需求为逻辑起点,依据PDCA(plan、do、check、act)循环理论构建0-3岁婴幼儿照护家庭托育服务需求与供给动力模型。精准把握需求侧与供给侧的匹配状况,使得托育服务契合0-3岁婴幼儿照护家庭的真实需求,实现效益最大化。

黄土坡耕地弃耕后土壤入渗变化规律及影响因素

黄土高原的土壤侵蚀十分严重,退耕还林是我国在黄土高原推行的水土保持政策。研究弃耕前后土壤入渗的差异,不仅可以为黄土高原实施退耕提供理论指导,同时还可以为退化土壤的修复提供理论依据。本文通过人工模拟降雨,研究了坡耕地弃耕后不同年限的土壤初始入渗的变化规律,分别采用四种处理方法(保留地上草被,除去地上草被,除去结皮,翻耕)对弃耕地进行处理,得出初始入渗过程中,弃耕地入渗能力随年限逐渐恢复;撂荒一、两年的弃耕地受结皮减渗作用影响大;随着弃耕时间的增长,生物结皮减渗作用开始小于地上草被的增渗作用;撂荒12年时,结皮和地上草被都开始起到增渗作用。

青海湖裸鲤繁殖生物学研究

通过常规生物学测定、组织切片等手段,较详细的研究了青海湖裸鲤的繁殖生物学.卵母细胞从第3时相发育到第4时相基本同步,产后卵巢和精巢的组织学结构恢复到Ⅱ期.青海湖裸鲤为重复产卵类型,以Ⅳ期卵巢越冬,其卵巢1年只成熟1次,已达性成熟的个体并不是每年都进行繁殖活动.青海湖裸鲤性成熟迟、繁殖力低.每年5～7月,裸鲤洄游到沿湖各河流中繁殖,沙柳河、布哈河和黑马河3条河流为其主要产卵场.调查的繁殖群体总的性比(():♀)为1.66:1.总繁殖群体中,雄性个体最小体长130.0 mm,体重28.0 g,年龄4龄;雌性个体最小体长170.0 mm,体重51.0 g,年龄5龄.青海湖裸鲤性成熟群体的性体指标1年只有1个峰值,出现在繁殖盛期的6～7月.其平均成熟卵径为2.33 mm,平均绝对繁殖力为4337.81粒,平均相对繁殖力为27.09粒/g.

樟树黄化土壤因子年周期变化规律的研究

对位于钱塘江北岸杭州市经济技术开发区六号路两旁黄化和正常樟树土壤因子年周期变化规律作了研究,结果发现黄化樟树立地土壤pH、HCO3-和有效磷均比正常树高,而有效铁和有机质比正常树低,四个取样时期樟树黄化从轻到重顺序依次为8月、6月、3月和10月,路南比路北黄化程度要轻,表层土质差。并在此基础上对樟树施肥提出建议,为治理和预防樟树黄化提供新的依据。

中国西部及邻区百年尺度周期的地震活动及其和太阳活动之间的负相关性

利用小波变换分析中国西部及邻区1700年以来M≥7级和M-T图分析1700年以来M≥7.8级地震活动,除了得到和其他学者研究基本一致的几个十年尺度周期结果外,还得到百年左右尺度的地震活动周期结果,再与太阳黑子活动进行比较,发现地震活动与太阳黑子数在百年左右尺度周期上具有负相关性,地震高活动时段对应太阳黑子低值时段.此外,从活动性分析中得到目前中国西部及邻区可能正处于强震活跃期间.

用太阳活动拟合近2000年的温度变化

利用两个反映太阳活动的指标—太阳黑子相对数及太阳黑子周期长度—来拟合近 2 0 0 0年我国的温度变化 ,其结果与近 2 0 0 0年 ,特别是近 70 0年来温度变化的总趋势基本一致。同时拟合了 12 0年来北半球温度的演变 ,结果表明 :太阳活动是引起 10 1年以上气温变化的基本因素 ,近十多年来温室气体的作用似乎不可忽略。

黄河中下游地区降水变化的周期分析

根据利用清代雨雪档案重建的黄河中下游及其4个子区域1736～2000年的逐年降水序列,采用小波变换方法,分析了该区降水变化的周期特征,探讨了影响降水周期变化的可能驱动因子。结果表明:黄河中下游地区的降水,具有2～4年、准22年及70～80年等年际与年代际的振荡周期。其中,2～4年周期与El Nino事件关联,在El Nino事件发生的当年或第二年,黄河中下游地区的降水比常年偏少;而准22年及70～80年的周期,与wolf太阳黑子相对数的周期变化及太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)信号有关。但在70～80年的周期尺度上,太阳活动与降水变化的对应关系在1830年以前表现为太阳活动偏强(弱)时,降水偏少(多);1830年以后,太阳活动的周期演变为80～100年的更长周期,因这一阶段可能受到由于人类活动加强而致的温室气体浓度升高等因素的干扰,太阳活动与降水之间的关系明显减弱;而PDO与降水的对应关系则表现在全时域上,且在近100多年,PDO与降水之间的相关关系逐渐加强,特别是在1940s以后达到最大。

煤矿全生命周期粉尘健康损害评价方法

为减小煤矿粉尘给从业人员带来的健康损害和经济损失,以生命周期评价(LCA)理论为基础,结合环境卫生学、病理学的相关内容研究损害和损失评价方法。首先对煤矿生命周期进行单元分解,然后收集各阶段粉尘的清单数据。将粉尘健康损害归入呼吸系统疾病类型指标。采用伤残调整寿命年(DALY)作为量化指标,构建粉尘与量化指标之间的评价模型,进行货币化分析,最终提出综合量化值的评价方法。结果表明,LCA理论可用于煤矿全生命周期粉尘健康损害评价,实现对煤矿全生命周期粉尘造成的健康损害程度的定量分析,为煤矿职业健康管理提供决策依据。

中国月度GDP同比增长率估算与经济周期分析

为了充分利用我国同比数据的优势、准确反映和及时调控宏观经济,本文提出一种估计同比数据混频近似因子模型的EM算法,并得到了我国月度GDP同比增长率的估计,然后利用此指标分析了我国经济波动的周期性。研究发现,月度数据的局部极差大于季度数据,尤其在宏观经济经历严重外部冲击时期,月度和季度GDP增长率数据相差较大,即季度GDP平滑了经济的波动性,低估了外部冲击效应。另外,月度GDP增长率数据能够更加精确、及时确定经济周期的转折点。

太阳轨道运动的2400年周期与轨道周期

通过对行星会合指数运动学方程生成的数据进行傅里叶变换,得到了从年、十年、百年、千年、万年到十万年时间尺度的周期,发现这些周期具有后者是前者10~n倍的特殊倍乘关系.如果将通过傅里叶变换得到的年时间尺度最显著的周期4.964 88 a设为单位时间步长代入行星会合指数方程,则可得到稳定的2400年周期.在此基础上由2400年周期振幅的差异性又构成了更长时间尺度的10万年和40~41万年太阳轨道运动特征周期.这对于揭示太阳轨道运动与太阳活动的关系,以及探讨气候千年尺度和轨道周期变化规律的机制具有重要意义.

华北地区夏季水量丰、枯年大气水分收支对比分析

利用 NCEP/ NCAR的 4 0年再分析资料 ,初步对比分析了华北地区夏季水量丰、枯年大气水分循环的差异 .结果发现 ,干旱年自地表经蒸发过程进入大气的水分少于湿润年 ;华北全区平均夏季干旱年略有水汽亏损 ,湿润年略有盈余 ;干旱年对流层各层由西南气流带来的水汽明显少于湿润年 ,由东边界和北边界流出的水汽也明显少于湿润年 ;干旱年对流层各层大气湿度都小于湿润年 ;水量丰、枯年对流层各层水汽均以辐合为主 ,但干旱年辐合量小于湿润年 .