Spatial Variation in CO_(2) Concentration Improves the Simulated Surface Air Temperature Increase in the Northern Hemisphere

The increasing concentration of atmospheric CO_(2) since the Industrial Revolution has affected surface air temperature.However,the impact of the spatial distribution of atmospheric CO_(2) concentration on surface air temperature biases remains highly unclear.By incorporating the spatial distribution of satellite-derived atmospheric CO_(2) concentration in the Beijing Normal University Earth System Model,this study investigated the increase in surface air temperature since the Industrial Revolution in the Northern Hemisphere(NH) under historical conditions from 1976-2005.In comparison with the increase in surface temperature simulated using a uniform distribution of CO_(2),simulation with a nonuniform distribution of CO_(2)produced better agreement with the Climatic Research Unit(CRU) data in the NH under the historical condition relative to the baseline over the period 1901-30.Hemispheric June-July-August(JJA) surface air temperature increased by 1.28℃ ±0.29℃ in simulations with a uniform distribution of CO_(2),by 1.00℃±0.24℃ in simulations with a non-uniform distribution of CO_(2),and by 0.24℃ in the CRU data.The decrease in downward shortwave radiation in the non-uniform CO_(2) simulation was primarily attributable to reduced warming in Eurasia,combined with feedbacks resulting from increased leaf area index(LAI) and latent heat fluxes.These effects were more pronounced in the non-uniform CO_(2)simulation compared to the uniform CO_(2) simulation.Results indicate that consideration of the spatial distribution of CO_(2)concentration can reduce the overestimated increase in surface air temperature simulated by Earth system models.

Impact of Spatial Inhomogeneity in Atmospheric CO_(2) Concentration on Surface Air Temperature Variations

Atmospheric CO_(2) concentration is characterized by spatial inhomogeneity and seasonal variability.The response of surface air temperature(SAT)to the inhomogeneity in CO_(2) concentration globally and regionally remains elusive.In this study,the BCC-CSM2-MR climate model was used to investigate the differences in global SAT in response to the spatially inhomogeneous distribution of atmospheric CO_(2) concentration.The analysis was based on three historical experiments(Hist_1dCO_(2),Hist_2dCO_(2),and Hist_3dCO_(2))conducted separately under the forcing of globally homogeneous,zonally homogeneous,and wholly spatially inhomogeneous CO_(2) concentrations from 1850 to 2014,derived from 12 Earth System Models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6.The simulation results revealed similar trends of evolution in the global mean SATs in the 20th century under the three CO_(2) concentration distributions,and showed that the simulated historical SATs considering the meridional inhomogeneity of CO_(2) concentration in Hist_2dCO_(2) and the wholly spatial inhomogeneity in Hist_3dCO_(2) were more consistent with the observations.Compared with the results of Hist_1dCO_(2),the SATs in Hist_2dCO_(2) were warmer over land in the mid–high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere(NH)than over other land areas.Further consideration of the zonally inhomogeneous CO_(2) concentration in Hist_3dCO_(2) revealed generally colder SATs over the NH mid–high-latitude ocean than over land at the same latitudes,and even the zonal mean SATs in the NH were slightly colder than those in Hist_2dCO_(2).These differences are ascribed to the uneven distribution of CO_(2) concentration along the same latitude in the NH in Hist_3dCO_(2),which leads to strong large-scale fluctuations in the atmospheric circulation.Eurasia is the region with the highest concentration of atmospheric CO_(2),which leads to remarkable regional SAT warming owing to enhanced downward longwave radiation.Warmer SATs in Eurasia in winter will further strengthen the northwesterly winds over eastern Asia,resulting in an increase in sea ice and strengthened cold SAT anomalies over the northern North Pacific.The simulated varied responses of the atmospheric circulation and SAT to inhomogeneous CO_(2) forcing highlight the imperative need for refined representation of the inhomogeneity of the atmospheric CO_(2) distribution in climate models for more accurate assessment of climate change.

REMOTE SENSING OF AIR TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND SURFACE EMISSIVITY FROM HIRS2 DATA

A physical method,based on the simplification of surface radiation terms in remote sensing equations, has been suggested to retrieve the surface temperature,vertical temperature profile and surface emissivity from the first eight channel observations of TIROS-N/HIRS2.Analyses of several examples indicate that this method can obtain much more accurate temperatures in the lower atmosphere than a statistical technique, and that the surface temperature and emissivity retrieved are also reasonable.

Intraseasonal Variability of Summertime Surface Air Temperature over Mid-High-Latitude Eurasia and Its Prediction Skill in S2S Models

Features of the dominant modes of surface air temperature(SAT)on the intraseasonal timescale over the mid-highlatitude Eurasia(MHE)during boreal summer(June-September)are investigated based on the ERA5 reanalysis data from 1979 to 2016.The intraseasonal variability(ISV)of SAT over MHE is primarily characterized by an eastward propagation along 60°N,which is found to impact the regional weather in China,including summertime extreme hot and cool events.The forecast skill and potential predictability of the ISV of SAT over MHE are assessed for 5 dynamical models that have participated in the subseasonal-to-seasonal(S2 S)prediction project,by analyzing12 years’(1999-2010)model reforecast/hindcast data.By using the principal component(PC)index of the leading intraseasonal SAT modes as a predictand,we found that the forecast skill for ISV of SAT can reach out to 11-17 days,and the ECMWF model exhibits the best score.All the S2 S models tend to show 1)a relatively higher skill for strong intraseasonal oscillation(ISO)cases,2)a systematic underestimate of the amplitude of the SAT ISV signal,and 3)different skills during different phases of ISO cases.Analysis of potential predictability based on the perfectmodel assumption reveals a 4-6-day skill gap for most models,and the skill gap also varies among different phases of ISO events.The results imply the need for continued development of operational forecasting systems to improve the actual prediction skills for the ISV of SAT over MHE.

Spatiotemporal variability/stability analysis of NO_(2),CO,and land surface temperature(LST)during COVID-19 lockdown in Amman city,Jordan

The massive lockdown of human socioeconomic activities and vehicle movements due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has resulted in an unprecedented reduction in pollutant gases such as Nitrogen Dioxide(NO_(2))and Carbon Monoxide(CO)as well as Land Surface Temperature(LST)in Amman as well as all countries around the globe.In this study,the spatial and temporal variability/stability of NO_(2),CO,and LST throughout the lockdown period over Amman city have been analyzed.The NO_(2) and CO column density values were acquired from Sentinel-5p while the LST data were obtained from MODIS satellite during the lockdown period from 20 March to 24 April in 2019,2020,and 2021.The statistical analysis showed an overall reduction in NO_(2) in 2020 by around 27% and 48% compared to 2019 and 2021,respectively.However,an increase of 7% in 2021 compared to 2019 was observed because almost all anthropogenic activities were allowed during the daytime.The temporal persistence showed almost constant NO2 values in 2020 over the study area throughout the lockdown period.In addition,a slight decrease in CO(around 1%)was recorded in 2020 and 2021 compared to the same period in 2019.Restrictions on human activities resulted in an evident drop in LST in 2020 by around 13%and 18% less than the 5-year average and 2021 respectively.The study concludes that due to the restrictions imposed on industrial activities and automobile movements in Amman city,an unprecedented reduction in NO_(2),CO,and LST was recorded.

基于贝叶斯模式平均方法的东亚地区地面2m气温预报改进

针对2007年6月—9月全球集合预报系统(THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble,TIGGE)多模式中的欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF)、美国国家环境预报中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction,NCEP)、英国气象局(United Kingdom Meteorological Office,UKMO)及日本气象厅(Japan Meteorological Agency,JMA)这4个集合预报模式产品资料,对东亚地区地面2 m气温进行了贝叶斯模式平均(Bayesian model averaging,BMA)方法的概率预报研究,并与简单集合平均(ensemble mean,EMN)方法的概率预报进行对比,最终采用(continuous ranked probability score,CRPS)评分与均方根误差(root of mean square error,RMSE)评估BMA方法在概率预报和确定性预报方面的预报效果。研究表明,BMA方法可有效将单一的确定性预报向连续概率预报转化,并全面准确地描述大气的多种可能运动状态,同时提供概率预报和确定性预报。BMA方法在量化不确定性信息方面优于EMN方法,在一定程度上减小了预报的不确定性。就确定性预报效果而言,BMA方法的预报效果优于所有的单模式预报以及EMN方法,但会受到训练期长度和选取模式性能优劣的影响,其预报效果也会发生改变。

百年尺度不同区域地表气温对CO_(2)浓度非均匀动态分布敏感度的研究

地球系统模式结果表明大气CO_(2)浓度的快速增加是气候变化重要的原因之一。卫星资料分析结果表明,大气CO_(2)浓度并非均一的,而是有明显的区域差异,以人类活动为主的碳排放会影响这一区域差异。这种空间差异如何影响区域地表气温对CO_(2)的敏感度,需要进一步深入系统的研究,利用地球系统模式BNU-ESM(Earth System Model of Beijing Normal University)进行数值模拟,并与观测数据进行比较,结果表明:在试验模拟结果2°C阈值内,非均匀CO_(2)浓度试验的CO_(2)浓度增加阈值范围小于均匀CO_(2)浓度试验结果,偏少约为4.3 ppm(106)。在区域尺度上,中国地表气温对CO_(2)敏感度普遍低于美国、欧洲以及北半球平均水平,这表明CO_(2)浓度空间差异对地表气温的敏感度的影响存在明显区域差异,很可能是CO_(2)浓度辐射效应与气候系统反馈过程的共同作用结果,这需要进一步研究。非均匀CO_(2)浓度对地表气温敏感度影响将会对碳中和目标下未来碳汇潜力精准估算提供科学支持。

The Relative Impact of Regional Scale Land Cover Change and Increasing CO_2 over China

A series of 17-yr equilibrium simulations using the NCAR COM3 (T42resolution) were performed to investigate the regional scale impacts of land cover change andincreasing CO_2 over China. Simulations with natural and current land cover at CO_2 levels of 280,355, 430, and 505 ppmv were conducted. Results show statistically significant changes in majorclimate fields (e.g. temperature and surface wind speed) on a 15-yr average following land coverchange. We also found increases in the maximum temperature and in the diurnal temperature range dueto land cover change. Increases in CO_2 affect both the maximum and minimum temperature so thatchanges in the diurnal range are small. Both land cover change and CO_2 change also impact thefrequency distribution of precipitation with increasing CO_2 tending to lead to more intenseprecipitation and land cover change leading to less intense precipitation―indeed, the impact ofland cover change typically had the opposite effect versus the impacts of CO_2. Our results providesupport for the inclusion of future land cover change scenarios in long-term transitory climatemodelling experiments of the 21st Century. Our results also support the inclusion of land surfacemodels that can represent future land cover changes resulting from an ecological response to naturalclimate variability or increasing CO_2. Overall, we show that land cover change can have asignificant impact on the regional scale climate of China, and that regionally, this impact is of asimilar magnitude to increases in CO_2 of up to about 430 ppmv. This means that that the impact ofland cover change must be accounted for in detection and attribution studies over China.

基于统一高度Cressman方法的地面2 m气温客观分析

针对离散站点资料格点化的业务需求及Cressman方法在地形复杂区域客观分析存在的问题,利用山东及周边省自动气象站观测的2 m气温和ECMWF预报的海上2 m气温,结合山东省中尺度数值预报位温递减率、90 m分辨率SRTM高程数据,采用统一高度Cressman方法对山东省地面2 m气温进行客观分析,生成了逐1 h、0.01°×0.01°高分辨率的地面2 m气温格点产品。结果表明,统一高度Cressman方法的客观分析格点产品在地形复杂区域的分析更合理,月平均误差基本在±1℃以内,鲁中山区地形高度较高区域月平均误差略大于鲁西北、鲁西南、鲁东南和山东半岛等地的平原地区,气温偏低的10、11、12月温度准确率均略低于5、6、7、8、9月;2020年5-12月平均误差为-0.0039℃,平均绝对误差为0.1469℃,均方根误差为0.3597℃,2℃以内准确率为99.64%,1℃以内准确率为98.24%,各项检验指标均较优。总体上统一高度Cressman客观分析格点产品质量接近中国气象局陆面数据同化系统(HRCLDAS)高分辨率格点实况产品。

未来北极夏季陆面气温变化区域特征及其与北大西洋海面温度的关系

未来变暖背景下北极气候变化特征研究具有重要意义,基于国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6,CMIP6)中对北极气候变化模拟能力较好的模式模拟结果,研究SSP2-4.5情景下21世纪北极2 m气温的时空变化特征及其影响因素。结果表明:(1)极地陆地的欧亚大陆(Eurasia, EA)和北美-格陵兰(Greenland, GL)对全球变暖具有不同的响应。EA在21世纪中叶前变暖趋势显著,之后主要表现为年代际尺度的冷暖振荡;GL则始终保持增暖趋势。EA、GL分区气温均存在年际、年代际(10~20 a)尺度上的波动,GL分区还存在20~40 a的准周期变化。(2)前冬北大西洋涛动正位相会引起次年夏季北大西洋呈南北向“-、+、-”三极型海面温度异常,并通过影响大气环流导致EA分区气温正异常,这种影响主要体现在年代际尺度上。(3)北大西洋多年代际振荡为正异常时,北美至格陵兰位势高度偏高,GL分区增暖,并且这种影响在21世纪70年代后更重要;北太平洋北部的海面温度正异常对GL分区增温也有贡献。

中国内陆高原不同海拔地区雷暴电学特征成因的初步分析

通过分析中国内陆高原西藏那曲、青海大通、甘肃中川和平凉4个不同海拔高度地区雷暴的电学特征发现,不同地区间雷暴电学特征有其共性,但也存在一定的差异。根据过顶雷暴的地面电场演变特征,内陆高原地区雷暴可以分为特殊型和常规型两类。特殊型雷暴在当顶阶段地面电场呈正极性,即雷暴下部存在范围较大的正电荷区(LPCC),且特殊型雷暴所占比例随海拔高度的增加有所增加;常规型雷暴在当顶阶段地面电场为负极性,与低海拔地区常规雷暴引起的地面电场类似。结合4个地区的地面气象要素以及探空资料的分析,发现不同地区对应的部分热动力参量以及大气层结参数存在显著差异。分析表明,地气温差和暖云区厚度对雷暴云LPCC的强弱有显著的指示意义,当地气温差越大、暖云区厚度越薄时,雷暴云LPCC的强度相对较大;反之,雷暴云LPCC的强度及范围都较小。数值模拟结果表明,特殊型雷暴云内最大上升气流区存在的范围以及总比含水量大于常规型雷暴,上升气流的强弱以及WCD的大小在很大程度上决定了云内水成物粒子的浓度。

草砖建筑冬季热环境和空气质量测试分析

为了解草砖建筑热工性能和室内热环境,选取汤原县一草砖建筑和当地典型砖混民居进行冬季室内外热环境和室内空气质量对比测试,结果表明:相对于砖混建筑,草砖墙体具有保温节煤、调节室内湿度的作用.但草砖墙体内表面温度振幅较大,在夜间墙体壁面温度低于室内空气温度,易形成冷辐射.

基于机器学习的华北气温多模式集合预报的订正方法

模式预报的订正是决定局地天气预报结果的一个重要步骤,基于机器学习的后处理模型近年来开始崭露头角。本文发展了基于岭回归(Ridge)、随机森林(Random Forest,RF)和深度学习(Deep Learning,DL)的3种后处理模型,基于中国气象局(CMA)的BABJ模式、欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)的ECMF模式、日本气象厅(JMA)的RJTD模式和NCEP的KWBC模式这4个数值天气预报模式2014年2月至2016年9月(训练期)近地面2 m气温预报和实况资料确定各模型参数,进而对2016年10月至2017年9月(预报期)华北地区(38°N～43°N,113°E～119°E)的逐日地面2m气温预报进行了多模式集合预报分析。采用均方根误差对预报效果进行评估,这3种后处理模型的预报效果和4个数值天气预报模式以及通常的多模式集合平均(Ensemble Mean,EMN)的预报效果的对比表明:1)随着预报时长增加,4个数值预报模式及各种后处理模型的均方根误差均呈上升趋势;但区域平均而言,Ridge、RF和DL的预报效果在任何预报时长上都明显优于EMN和单个天气预报模式;特别是前几天的短期预报DL的预报效果更好,中后期预报Ridge的预报效果略好。2)华北地区的东南部均方根误差较小,其余格点上均方根误差较高,从空间分布而言,DL的订正预报效果最好,3种机器学习模型的误差在1.24～1.26°C之间,而EMN的误差达1.69°C。3)夏季各种方法的预报效果都较好,冬季预报效果都较差;但是Ridge、RF和DL的预报效果明显优于EMN,这3种模型预报的平均均方根误差在2.15～2.18°C之间,而EMN的平均均方根误差达2.45°C。

全球地表气温对CO_(2)浓度变化的非对称响应:能量平衡模式研究

气候系统属性可影响二氧化碳(CO_(2))浓度变化背景下全球地表气温演变的非对称性,但目前仍不清楚哪些属性的贡献相对关键。因第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)试验样本不足,基于45个CMIP6模式数据,逐一构建了快速、再现能力理想的两层能量模型,共开展了391组试验。该模型试验结果显示,在对称的CO_(2)浓度上升和下降演变下,平衡气候响应、深海热容量和海表—深海热传输系数对全球地表气温演变的非对称性起主要贡献,它们主要通过改变CO_(2)浓度下降期全球地表气温达峰后的降温速度来实现。因此,加深对气候系统平衡气候响应、深海热容量和海表—深海热传输系数的理解,有助于更科学地实现巴黎协定目标。

浅埋厚煤层地表漏风对采空区煤自燃影响数值模拟研究

西部矿区浅埋厚煤层通常采用抽出式通风方式,地表漏风不仅使风流紊乱,而且其中的O 2贯穿采空区,与采空区遗煤共同作用使其氧化,从而发生煤自燃,并且产生的CO等有害气体超标,严重影响矿井的正常开采。目前一般采用现场实测、理论分析及实验研究方法对地面漏风引起的采空区内煤自燃的气体浓度场和温度场等进行研究,然而地表裂隙漏风自然发火实验复杂程度较高,理论分析及实验研究方法难以从三维角度认识地表漏风对采空区内煤自燃的影响规律。针对上述问题,根据我国西北矿区埋深浅、煤层厚等特点,建立三维数值计算模型,采用数值模拟与现场实测相结合的方法研究了浅埋厚煤层条件下导气裂隙采空区“三带”分布情况及不同工况下采空区O 2浓度场、CO浓度场、温度场、压力场等的分布规律,并采用ZD5煤矿火灾多参数监测装置进行现场验证。结果表明:采空区内“三带”分布规律和O 2浓度场分布受地表漏风影响明显,采空区顶部O 2容易聚集,改变了采空区内气体流场分布规律,采空区内高体积分数O 2(体积分数为18%~23%)聚集范围为沿采空区走向0~270 m、沿采空区竖直方向3~20 m,特别是在沿采空区走向0~80 m、沿采空区竖直方向3~8 m空间O 2充足、有一定遗煤且热量不容易散失,该区域煤自然发火危险程度较高;采空区内回风隅角压力最小,为-10 Pa,回风口压力最低,进风口压力最大,沿倾向、竖直方向及走向压力均逐渐增大;采空区内温度和CO分布规律类似,在采空区底部受顶部漏风影响很小,主要受工作面进风隅角影响,热量积聚和CO聚集规律与不漏风时基本一致,而从采空区中部开始,温度和CO主要受顶部漏风影响,在中部区域温度和CO均呈现“O”形圈分布,采空区顶部,温度和CO在每个断裂带与采空区交接处达到极大值,并向两侧递减,在最深部的断裂带与采空区交接处出现最大值。

西北冰洋二氧化碳分压变异与海冰变化的关系

北极海冰消退造成了开阔水域面积的增加,进而促进表层海水吸收更多的二氧化碳(CO_(2)),导致表层CO_(2)分压(pCO_(2))呈上升趋势。然而,目前还缺少对于海冰消退过程中pCO_(2)的显著变化及其与海冰联系的相关研究。本研究基于2008年中国第三次北极科学考察数据,发现西北冰洋夏季海表pCO_(2)的分布呈现出陆架区低海盆区高的特征,整个海区总体上为大气CO_(2)的汇,其中陆架区碳汇通量为13.8 mmol·m^(-2)·d^(-1),而广阔的加拿大海盆区仅为3.7 mmol·m^(-2)·d^(-1)。本研究重点分析了海盆区高pCO_(2)和低碳汇的驱动机制,根据质量平衡模型模拟了加拿大海盆区在整个海冰融化过程以及随开阔海域时间延长的情景下,海表pCO_(2)的响应变化趋势。结果表明:(1)在融冰过程中,海-气CO_(2)交换驱动pCO_(2)呈缓慢增加趋势;(2)在海冰完全融化后,伴随着海面暴露在空气中时间的延长,海-气CO_(2)交换与升温共同作用使pCO_(2)迅速增加,且增加速率高于融化阶段。

大气污染物与气温对2型糖尿病发病的交互作用研究

目的探讨大气污染物与气温对2型糖尿病发病的影响,并分析二者的交互作用,为2型糖尿病的预防提供参考和科学依据。方法以天津市某区2015年1月1日—2017年12月31日所有2型糖尿病病例作为研究对象,分析同期大气污染物、气象因素与2型糖尿病发病数的相关性,采用双变量响应面模型、单污染物气温交互模型分析大气污染物与气温对2型糖尿病发病的交互作用。结果当PM2.5、PM10、SO2、NO2、CO浓度分别位于lag1、lag03、lag3、lag03、lag1时,大气污染物浓度每升高10μg/m3(CO为100μg/m3)时2型糖尿病发病的RR值最高,其RR(95%CI)分别为1.003(95%CI:0.987~1.010),1.003(95%CI:0.991~1.013),1.002(95%CI:0.978~1.041),1.007(95%CI:0.977~1.050)和1.001(95%CI:0.997~1.030)。按照气温P15~P85进行分层后的单污染物和多污染物交互模型结果显示,高温时大气污染物对2型糖尿病的发病风险的影响高于低温时,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论PM2.5、PM10、SO2、NO2、CO均可能升高2型糖尿病的发病风险,且在高温时致病风险较高。

Numerical Simulation of Regional Climate Change under IPCC A2 Scenario in China

Regional climate change in China under the IPCC A2 Scenario, was simulated for continuous 10-yr period by the MM5V3, using the output of an IPCC A2 run from CISRO Mark 3 climate system model as lateral and surface boundary conditions. The regional climate change of surface air temperature, precipitation, and circulation were analyzed. The results showed that （1） the distribution of mean circulation, surface air temperature, and precipitation was reproduced by the MM5V3. The regional climate model was capable to improve the regional climate simulation driven by GCM. （2） The climate change simulation under the IPCC A2 Scenario indicated that the surface air temperature in China would increase in the future, with a stronger trend in winter and the increasing magnitude from the south to the north. The precipitation distribution would appear a distinct change as well. Annual mean precipitation would remarkably increase in Northeast China, Yangtze and Huaihe River Valley, and the south area of the valley. Meanwhile, rainfall would show a decreasing trend in partial areas of North China, and many regions of Southwest and Northwest China.

哈密绿洲土地利用变化对区域环境的影响

中国干旱区绿洲在过去20 a经历了快速的城市化和农田扩张,为了探究该区域不同下垫面在＂荒漠-绿洲-城市＂演化过程中对区域自然环境以及气象要素的影响。以典型的哈密绿洲为研究区,利用WRF模式分别耦合2000年、2015年2期土地利用数据,模拟对比分析夏季7月哈密绿洲土地利用变化前后区域自然环境要素的影响,采集的指标为2 m气温、2 m相对湿度、地表温度。研究表明：（1）哈密绿洲土地利用变化对气象要素的综合效应表现为：2 m气温升高1.2℃,相对湿度增加2%;（2）下垫面由绿洲转变为城市,2 m气温增加2.5～3℃,地温增加6～7.5℃,相对湿度减小4%～8%;（3）由荒漠变为城市,2 m气温增加1～2℃,地温增加3～6℃,相对湿度减小0～4%;（4）由荒漠变为绿洲,2 m气温降低1.5～4℃,地温降低0～7.5℃,相对湿度增加4%～16%。总体来看：在中国干旱区,城市化过程使该区域进一步变热和变干,与之相反,绿洲扩张使得区域具有变冷和变湿的趋势。