Strong ground motion simulation for the 2013 Lushan M_W6.6 earthquake, Sichuan, China, based on the inverted and synthetic slip models

It is well known that quantitative estimation of slip distributions on fault plane is one of the most important issues for earthquake source inversion related to the fault rupture process. The characteristics of slip distribution on the main fault play a fundamental role to control strong ground motion pattern. A large amount of works have also suggested that variable slip models inverted from longer period ground motion recordings are relevant for the prediction of higher frequency ground motions. Zhang et al. （Chin J Geophys 56：1412-1417, 2013） and Wang et al. （Chin J Geophys 56：1408-1411,2013） published their source inversions for the fault rupturing process soon after the April 20, 2013 Lushan earthquake in Sichuan, China. In this study, first, we synthesize two forward source slip models： the value of maximum slip, fault dimension, size, and dimension of major asperities, and comer wave number obtained from Wang＇s model is adopted to constrain the gen- eration of k-2 model and crack model. Next, both inverted and synthetic slip models are employed to simulate the ground motions for the Lushan earthquake based on the stochastic finite-fault method. In addition, for a comparison purpose, a stochastic slip model and another k-2 model （k 2 model II） with 2 times value of comer wave number of the original k-2 model （k 2 model I） are also employed for simulation for Lushan event. The simulated results characterized by Modified Mer- calli Intensity （MMI） show that the source slip models based on the inverted and synthetic slip distributions could capture many basic features associated with the ground motion patterns. Moreover, the simulated MMI distributions reflect the rupture directivity effect and the influence of the shallow velocity structure well. On the other hand, the simulated MMI bystochastic slip model and k 2 model II is apparently higher than observed intensity. By contrast, our simulation results show that the higher frequency ground motion is sensitive to the degree of slip roughness; therefore, we suggest that, for realistic ground- motion simulations due to future earthquake, it is imperative to properly estimate the slip roughness distribution.

A Combined Weight of Evidence and Logistic Regression Method for Susceptibility Mapping of Earthquake-induced Landslides: A Case Study of the April 20, 2013 Lushan Earthquake, China

The M_s 7.0 Lushan earthquake triggered a huge number of landslides. Landslide susceptibility mapping is of great importance. Weight of Evidence（Wo E） and Logistic Regression（LR） methods have been widely used for LSM（Landslide Susceptibility Mapping）. However, limitations still exist. Wo E is capable of assessing the influence of different classes of each factor, but neglects the correlation between factors. LR is able to analyze the relationship among the factors while it is not capable of evaluating the influence of different classes. This paper proposes a combined method of LR and Wo E for LSM, taking advantage of their individual merits and overcoming their limitations. An inventory of 1289 landslides was used： 70% were random-selected for training and the remaining for validation. 11 landslide condition factors were employed in the model and the result was validated using Receiver Operating Characteristic（ROC） curve. The results showed that the LRWo E model had a better accuracy than the LR model, producing an area below the curve with values of 0.802 success and 0.791 predictive, higher than that of the LR model（0.715 success and 0.722 predictive）. It is therefore concluded that the combined method of Wo E and LR can provide a promising level of accuracy for earthquake-induced landslide susceptibility mapping.

Did the MS 7.0 Lushan earthquake dynamically trigger earthquakes in the Datong volcanic region(Shanxi Province)?

Immediately following the Ms7.0 Lushan earthquake on April 20, 2013, using high-pass and low- pass filtering on the digital seismic stations in the Shanxi Province, located about 870-1,452 km from the earthquake epicenter, we detected some earthquakes at a time corre- sponding to the first arrival of surface waves in high-pass filtering waveform. The earthquakes were especially noticed at stations in Youyu （YUY）, Shanzizao （SZZ）, Shanghuangzhuang （SHZ）, and Zhenchuan （ZCH）, which are located in a volcanic region in the Shanxi Province,but they were not listed in the Shanxi seismic observation report. These earthquakes occurred 4-50 rain after the passage of the maximum amplitude Rayleigh wave, and the periods of the surface waves were mainly between 15 and 20 s following. The Coulomb stresses caused by the Ray- leigh waves that acted on the four stations was about 0.001 MPa, which is a little lower than the threshold value of dynamic triggering, therefore, we may conclude that the Datong volcanic region is more sensitive to the Coulomb stress change. To verify, if the similar phenomena are widespread, we used the same filtering to observecontrastively continuous waveform data before, and 5 h after, the Ms7.0 Lushan earthquake and Ms9.0 Tohoku earthquake in 2011. The results show that the similar phenomena occur before the earthquakes, but the seis- micity rates after the earthquakes are remarkably increased. Since these weak earthquakes are quite small, it is hard to get clear phase arrival time from three or more stations to locate them. In addition, the travel time differences between P waves and S waves （S-P） are all less than 4 s, that means the events should occur in 34 km around the stations in the volcanic region. The stress of initial dynamic triggering of the Ms9.0 Tohoku earthquake was about 0.09 MPa, which is much higher than the threshold value of dynamic triggering stress. The earthquakes after the Ms9.0 Tohoku earthquake are related to dynamic triggering stress, but the events before the earthquake cannot be linked to seismic events, but may be related to the back- ground seismicity or from other kinds of local sources, such as anthropogenic sources （i.e., explosions）. Using two teleseismic filtering, the small background earthquakes in the Datong volcanic region occur frequently, thus we postulate that previous catalog does not apply bandpass filter to pick out the weak earthquakes, and some of the observed weak events were not triggered by changes in the dynamic stress field.