Bayesian Estimation of Population Size via Capture-Recapture Model with Time Variation and Behavioral Response

We consider the problem of population estimation using capture-recapture data, where capture probabilities can vary between sampling occasions and behavioural responses. The original model is not identifiable without further restrictions. The novelty of this article is to expand the current research practice by developing a hierarchical Bayesian approach with the assumption that the odds of recapture bears a constant relationship to the odds of initial capture. A real-data example of deer mice population is given to illustrate the proposed method. Three simulation studies are developed to inspect the performance of the proposed Bayesian estimates. Compared with the maximum likelihood estimates discussed in Chao et al. (2000), the hierarchical Bayesian estimate provides reasonably better population estimation with less mean square error;moreover, it is sturdy to underline relationship between the initial and re-capture probabilities. The sensitivity study shows that the proposed Bayesian approach is robust to the choice of hyper-parameters. The third simulation study reveals that both relative bias and relative RMSE approach zero as population size increases. A R-package is developed and used in both data example and simulation.

Estimation of Bounded Populations and Carrying Capacity with the Logistic Model

Estimation of bounded populations and carrying capacity in the presence of a sample frame is considered. Models based on Logistic model are proposed. Like the existing estimators, this estimation technique deals with initial condition and is based on yearly population totals in order to fit in a model within a given period of time in this study. The proposed Logistic model technique has shown to be efficient especially with large data. The empirical study indicated that the Logistic model is efficient and can estimate properly even in the presence of outliers.

Application of 3-D Geoscience Modeling Technology for the Estimation of Solid Mineral Reserves

Applying new approaches, methods, and technologies for the estimation of reserves can effectively improve the efficiency and accuracy of assessments of solid mineral resources. After analyzing the development of 3-D geoscience modeling technology （3-D GMT）, this paper discusses the application of 3-D GMT for the estimation of solid mineral reserves, emphatically introducing its workflow and two key technologies, 3-D orebody surface modeling, and property modeling. Moreover, the paper analyzes the limitations of traditional methods, such as the section method and geological block method, and points out the advantages of 3-D GMT： building more accurate 3-D orebody models, expressing the internal inhomogeneous attributes of an orebody, reducing the potential for errors in the estimation of reserves, and implementing dynamic estimations of reserves.

APPLICATION OF REMOTE SENSING TECHNOLOGY TO POPULATION ESTIMATION

This paper attempts to explore a new avenue of urban small-regional population estimation by remote sensing technology, creatively and comprehensively for the first time using a residence count method, area (density) method and model method, incorporating the application experience of American scholars in the light of the state of our country. Firstly, the author proposes theoretical basis for population estimation by remote sensing, on the basis of analysing and evaluating the history and state quo of application of methods of population estimation by remote sensing. Secondly, two original types of mathematical models of population estimation are developed on the basis of remote sensing data, taking Tianjin City as an example. By both of the mathematical models the regional population may be estimated from remote sensing variable values with high accuracy. The number of the independent variables in the latter model is somewhat smaller and the collection of remote sensing data is somewhat easier, but the deviation is a little larger. Finally, some viewpoints on the principled problems about the practical application of remote sensing to population estimation are put forward.

Model Estimation of Volatilization of Ammonia Appliedwith Surface Film-Forming Material

Greenhouse experiments were conducted to determine the ammonia volatilization loss with or withoutapplication of surface film-forming material (SFFM). Ammonia volatilization loss was estimated by the modeldeveloped by Jayaweera and Mikkelsen. The results showed that the model could estimate and predict wellammonia volatilization loss also in case of SFFM addition. There was an emended factor B introduced tothe model calculation when SFPM was used. Simulated calculation showed that the effect of factor B onNHa loss was obvious. The value of B was governed by SFFM and the environmental conditions. Sensitivityanalysis suggested that pH was the main factor coatrolling NH3 volatilization loss from the floodwater.

Limitations of Cost Estimation Using Building Information Modeling in Poland

BIM （building information modeling） is a technological innovation, not only during the design process, but also during the planning and preparation stages of a construction project, as it also supports making investment decisions. An innovation which is comparable, if only slightly less significant, was the transition from using 2D systems to the 3D structural model design. The article outlines the advantages of using BIM in the preparatory stages of a construction project. It also presents benefits which relate to the employment of the BIM system in cost estimation process. The article describes the Zuzia BIM system which uses the BIM model, as this system has just been created in Poland for the purpose of construction cost estimation. The preparation of the bill of quantities is automated in this system and this has been achieved on the basis of data directly obtained from virtual models of buildings, which were carried out thanks to the collaboration of various design sectors. The article authors, using their own experience, present difficulties which can be encountered by cost estimators in Poland when calculating the value of a building with the help of the BIM concept. The article shows the design errors that prevent or hinder takeoff automatic calculation based on BIM model. Design errors shown in the article are for example reinforcement bars have been defined by a designer as elements hollow in the middle or as one element for the whole building, one type of elements assigned as few different or incorrect defining of elements in relation to the type of works.

Modelling the Impact of Stages of HIV Progression on Estimates

HIV/AIDS is a public health problem especially in sub-Saharan Africa where majority of infections and deaths occur. Despite the large number of studies and efforts made in covering the data gap using mathematical models, little is known on how model estimates are confounded by the transmission variabilities that exist in stages of HIV progression. This work investigates the impact of including stages of HIV transmission in HIV/AIDS models. A deterministic HIV/AIDS model is developed and extended to include stages of HIV progression of infected individuals. Theoretical investigation of the models and numerical analyses indicate that the two models produce different estimates, with the model without stages producing lower estimates than the staged model. These results call for a careful consideration in evaluating the efficiency of HIV/AIDS models that are used to estimate and project the burden of HIV/AIDS disease.

Kinetic parameter estimation for cooling crystallization process based on cell average technique and automatic differentiation

In this paper,a cell average technique(CAT)based parameter estimation method is proposed for cooling crystallization involved with particle growth,aggregation and breakage,by establishing a more efficient and accurate solution in terms of the automatic differentiation(AD)algorithm.To overcome the deficiency of CAT that demands high computation cost for implementation,a set of ordinary differential equations(ODEs)entailed from CAT based discretized population balance equation(PBE)are solved by using the AD based high-order Taylor expansion.Moreover,an AD based trust-region reflective(TRR)algorithm and another interior-point(IP)algorithm are established for estimating the kinetic parameters associated with particle growth,aggregation and breakage.As a result,the estimation accuracy can be further improved while the computation cost can be significantly reduced,compared to the existing algorithms.Benchmark examples from the literature are used to illustrate the accuracy and efficiency of the AD-based CAT,TRR and IP algorithms in comparison with the existing algorithms.Moreover,seeded batch cooling crystallization experiments ofβform L-glutamic acid are performed to validate the proposed method.

3^(1/2)互细分曲面的误差分析

针对细分控制网格与细分极限曲面的逼近度这一问题,基于细分控制网格的拓扑结构和细分模式的几何规则,提出一种3^(1/2)细分曲面的误差估计方法并给出一个误差估计公式。利用该公式,根据给定的精度,可事先知道细分之后控制网格满足该精度的最少细分次数而不需要实际对一个模型细分。结合该误差估计方法,给出一种3^(1/2)细分曲面数控加工刀具轨迹生成方法和一种用于直接在STL文件基础上提高精度的方法。试验结果表明这种误差估计方法的有效性。

3岁以下子女随迁对流动人口收入的影响研究——基于社会性别的多层次验证

本文结合2016年流动人口动态监测调查数据与2016年高德地图为来源的地级市托育机构的兴趣点数据(POI),构建多层线性模型,考察3岁以下子女随迁对流动人口收入的影响,并通过重新划分样本探讨收入是否存在的性别差异。研究结果表明,3岁以下子女随迁会显著降低流动人口收入,且影响存在显著的性别差异,和男性流动人口相比,3岁以下子女随迁主要降低女性流动人口收入。本文进一步分析祖辈随迁和婴幼儿托育机构对3岁以下子女随迁对流动人口收入的调节作用,结果表明,祖辈随迁和婴幼儿托育机构数量有助于抑制3岁以下子女随迁对流动人口收入的不利影响,且对女性收入的提升作用远超于男性。基于上述结果,本文提出以下建议:一、增加对托育机构的资金投入和政策支持;二、合理规划当地的养老体系为随迁子女的祖辈照料提供基础;三、打破传统性别角色观念,在劳动力市场释放女性性别红利;四、拓宽流动人口再教育途径,推进流动人口人力资本水平。

基于3DMine软件的地质统计学在河北羊崖山铁矿床资源量估算中的应用

现有矿业软件的储量估算模块核心方法主要基于地质统计学。文章以河北迁安羊崖山铁矿床为例,通过3DMine软件在数据资料准备、变异函数确定、块体模型构建及储量报告等多方面的应用,规范了矿业软件在资源量估算方面的工作流程。利用普通克里金法和距离幂次反比法分别进行品位插值,完成资源量估算;并与传统储量估算结果进行比较,分析产生误差原因,建立了开采境界模型,计算了矿山开采储量和保有储量;利用赋值参数分析矿体控制程度,指导未来探矿工程重点部位。

Morphometric measurement of the patella on 3D model reconstructed from CT scan images for the southern Chinese population

Background Due to racial differences in the morphology of the knee joint and due to most prostheses available in the market being designed using measurements from Caucasians,the objective of this study was to provide the morphometric data of the patella for the southern Chinese population for total knee arthroplasty （TKA）,patellar resurfacing,and prostheses design.Methods The CT slices of the knee joint were obtained from both knees of 40 Chinese volunteers （20 females,20 males,and age from 20-25 years） by performing a computer tomographic scan.A 3D model was reconstructed by Mimics software based on the computed tomography images.Six metrical characteristics were measured by digital ruler.Statistical analysis was performed with the SPSS statistical program.Results The mean,standard deviation and P values of measurements and ratios were calculated using SPSS.All dimensions showed a significant gender difference with P＜0.05,but the six variables of the left and right knees had no statistical significance with P＞0.05.In addition,we studied the relationship between six couples （H-W,H-T,H-HAF,W-T,W-HAF,T-HAF） of the four variables （H：height,W：width,T：thickness and HAF：height of articulating facet） that were measured,which showed a significant correlation.Conclusions Examination of the southern Chinese population revealed that males have larger patellae than women.In both genders,comparing data between left and right knees shows no statistically significant difference.Compared with Westerners in previous studies,the patella in our study was thin and small.There was a good linear regression correlation between measurements of the patella.The indirect measurement method on 3D models makes it easy to obtain anatomical data,and the results can provide a region and gender specific database for morphometric measurements of the oatella,and can be helpful for designing implants suited for southern Chinese patients.

Impact of Temporal Population Distribution on Earthquake Loss Estimation:A Case Study on Sylhet,Bangladesh

To estimate human loss in an earthquake-prone area, it is necessary to analyze the role played by the spatiotemporal distribution of the area’s resident population. In order to evaluate earthquake impact, this article focuses on the spatiotemporal distribution of population and five scenario earthquakes that form the basis for loss estimation in the city of Sylhet, Bangladesh. Four temporal contexts(weekday, weekly holiday, the 30 days of Ramadan, and strike days) expand the more typical daytime and nighttime settings in which to examine hazard risk. The population distribution for every 2 hour interval in a day is developed for each type of day. A relationship between the occupancy classes and average space(persons per 100 m^2)is used to distribute people in each building regardless of building locations. A total daytime and nighttime population is obtained for each building and the estimated nighttime population is used to model the population for four temporal scenarios in a year based on different factors and weights. The resulting data are employed to estimate population loss for each of the temporal and earthquake scenarios. This study used building-specific human vulnerability curves developed by the Central American Probabilistic Risk Assessment(CAPRA) to obtain possible loss of life estimates. The results reveal that there is a high positive correlation between the spatiotemporal distribution of population and the potential number of casualties.

Population distribution modelling at fine spatio-temporal scale based on mobile phone data

Population distribution modelling can benefit many different domains,for example,transportation,urban planning,ecology or emergency management.Information about the location and number of people in an affected area is crucial for decision-makers during emergencies and crises.Mobile phone data represents relatively reliable and time accurate information on real-time population distribution,movement and behaviour.In this study,we evaluate the spatio-temporal distribution of population derived from phone data of the selected pilot area(City of Brno,Czech Republic).Analysis is based on the dataset describing the estimated human presence(EHP)with two values-visitors and transiting persons.The temporal change of data is first analysed and further processed using two methodological approaches.First,the dasymetric method is used where the building geometry and technical attributes served as a target layer.Second,the results of building level analysis are transformed into a regular grid zone of both visitors and the general EHP.Resulting spatio-temporal patterns are compared to the census data.Results demonstrate how the proposed building level dasymetric approach can improve the spatial granularity of EHP.Potential use of proposed methodology within selected emergency situations is further discussed.

基于岭回归的动态死亡率预测方法及其改进

建立适当的人口死亡率模型对人口预测、人力资本具有重要意义。对随机死亡率年龄-时期-队列(APC)模型的估计方式进行改进,在广义线性模型的基础上,引入岭回归估计。基于日本1980—2020年0~95岁人口死亡率分别使用广义线性泊松回归模型与改进的岭回归模型进行死亡率的拟合与预测,使用均方根误差、似然函数、贝叶斯信息准则模型评价准则进行比较。实证分析结果表明,在拟合效果与预测结果上,改进的岭回归模型均优于使用最大似然估计的广义线性模型(GLM)。

人口老龄化会影响货币政策传导效果吗?——来自信贷渠道的证据

本文运用包含随机波动的时变参数向量自回归模型(TVP-VAR),聚焦于我国人口老龄化对货币政策调控宏观经济能力的时变影响特征研究。基于货币政策信贷传导渠道在我国的重要地位,以CC-LM模型为理论依据,分析了人口老龄化对货币政策信贷传导机制的影响。结果表明,人口老龄化降低了我国货币政策的有效性,具体表现为人口老龄化抑制了数量型和价格型政策工具对经济增长和通货膨胀的调控效果。人口老龄化通过对银行信贷供给环节以及企业信贷融资环节产生负面效应,削弱了货币政策信贷渠道效力,且该结论在更换人口老龄化衡量指标后仍成立。本文认为,我国货币政策的决策与制定应当充分考虑人口老龄化因素,并可通过丰富政策组合以及改革信贷传导机制等方法提升人口老龄化背景下的货币政策调控效果。

人口密度的空间连续分布模型

分析了常用的表示人口分布的方法,并指出了其不足的地方,提出了模拟人口空间分布的必要性,同时提出了模拟人口空间分布的思路。将研究区域划分为一定分辨率的格网,用核心估计方法将人口密度估计值分配到每个格网上,每个格网上的人口是均匀分布的,随着格网分辨率的提高,就可以模拟出符合人口详细分布的人口密度空间连续分布模型,并通过实验说明该方法是可行的。

一种自适应的种群增长模型及参数估计

通过对种群增长的非线性制约机制的数学形态分析，提出了一种新的种群增长数学模型其解析解为：该模型当非线性密度制约指数s＜1，s=1，s＞1及s→∞时分别对应于Smith，Logistic，崔-Lawson及指数增长模型，具有自适应性。本文还提出了一种种群增长模型参数估计的搜索寻化方法，只要给出参数的一组启动值，通过逐步搜索可以任意精度近近参数的真优值。利用本文模型和参数估计方法对Gause的草履虫实验数据和济南市灵岩山侧柏生长资料分别进行了拟合，结果表明自适应模型的拟会精度明显优于Logistic模型，也优于崔-Lawson模型。

黄土高原典型草原地上生物量估测模型

为了寻求有效的草地地上生物量估测方法和精确估测黄土高原典型草原草原地上生物量。于2014年8月中旬,在黄土高原典型草原草原地上生物量达到最大值,分别从单株水平和种群水平进行野外调查。以株高(H)和盖度(C)的复合因子(C×H)为自变量,通过回归分析,建立地上生物量估测模型,采用留一法对其精确性进行评估;并通过校正系数以及群落总生物量估测值和实测值比较单株水平和种群水平所建模型的精确性。结果表明:黄土高原典型草原草地,无论在单株水平还是种群水平,线性和幂函数对该区域生物量的拟合效果更好。估测模型检验结果表明,在单株水平各个物种的生物量估测值与实测值相关性较好,均达到了显著水平(P<0.05),其r值均大于0.6,总相对误差RS均小于10%,平均相对误差绝对值RMA(average absolute value of relative error)均小于30%,总生物量的实测值与估测值比较接近,校正系数均接近1;而在种群水平上,虽然各物种的生物量估测值与实测值相关性均达到了显著水平(P<0.05),但多数物种平均相对误差绝对值RMA大于30%,总相对误差RS(total relative error)均大于10%,总生物量的估测值均大于实测值,校正系数均偏离了1,说明在黄土高原典型草原通过单株水平建立的物种生物量估测模型的精度优于种群水平建立的物种生物量估测模型的精度。

基于RS和GIS的人口估计方法研究综述

随着RS和GIS技术的迅速发展,RS和GIS成为进行人口估计的主要手段。根据人口估计的目标和使用的数据源不同,可以把基于RS和GIS的人口估计方法分成两大类:面插值方法和统计模型方法。面插值方法根据插值过程中是否使用辅助数据可以进一步分成无辅助数据的面插值和有辅助数据的面插值两种。统计模型方法根据模型中自变量的不同可以分成建成区面积估计法、土地利用密度法、居住单元估计法、图像像元特征估计法和自然和社会经济特征综合估计法五种。本文按照上述分类标准综述了基于RS和GIS的各种人口估计方法,分析了各种方法的应用条件、优缺点和研究实例。最后提出了在基于RS和GIS进行人口估计方面需要进一步研究的问题。