Space-Temporal Variation in Underground Water Some Quality Parameters in Klodzko Water Intake Area Using Statistical and Geostatistical Methods （SW Part of Poland）

This paper presents selected results of research connected with the development of a （3D） geostatistical hydrogeochemical model of the Klodzko Drainage Basin, dedicated to the spatial and time variation in the selected quality parameters of underground water in the Klodzko water intake area （SW part of Poland） [1-6]. The research covers the period 1977-2012. Spatial analyses of the variation in different quality parameters, between others, Fe [gFe/m3], Mn [gMn/m3], ammonium ion [gNH4＋/m3] contents and oxidation capacity [gO2/m3], were carried out on the basis of the chemical determinations of the quality parameters of underground water samples taken from the wells in the water intake area [2-4]. Spatial and time variation in the parameters was analyzed on the basis of archival data （period 1977-1999） for 22 （pump and siphon） wells, later data obtained （November 2011） from tests of water taken from 14 existing wells and the latest data （January 2012） acquired from 3 new piezometers, which were made in other locations in the relevant area. Thematic databases, containing original data on coordinates X, Y （latitude, longitude） and Z （terrain elevation and time-years） and on regionalized variables, i.e. the underground water quality parameters in the Klodzko water intake area determined for different analytical configurations （22 wells, 14 wells, 14 wells ＋ 3 piezometers）, were created [2]. Both archival data （acquired in the years 1977-1999） and the latest data （collected in 2011-2012） were analyzed. These data were subjected to spatial analyses [2-6] using statistical and geostatistical methods [7-12]. The evaluation of basic statistics of the investigated quality parameters, including their histograms of distributions, scatter diagrams between these parameters and also correlation coefficients r, were presented in this article. The directional semivariogram function and the ordinary （block） kriging procedure were used to build the 3D geostatistical model. The geostatistical parameters of the theoretical models of directional semivariograms of the studied water quality parameters, calculated along the time interval and the well depth （taking into account the terrain elevation）, were used in the ordinary （block） kriging estimation. The obtained results of estimation, allowed to determine the levels of increased values Z＊ of studied underground water quality parameters [2, 4-6]. Generally, the behaviour of the underground water quality parameters has been found to vary in space and time. Thanks to the spatial analyses of the variation in the quality parameters in the Klodzko underground water intake area some regularities （trends） in the variation in water quality have been identified.

The Influence and Implications of Climate Change on Water Quality in a Large Water Reservoir in the Southwest, USA

Maintaining water quality in large reservoirs is crucial to ensure continued delivery of high-quality water to consumers for municipal and agricultural needs. Lake Mead, a large reservoir in the desert southwest, USA, is projected to be affected by both loss of volume and rising air temperatures through the end of the 21st century. In this study, reductions in lake volume, coupled with downscaled climate projections for rising air temperatures through the end of the 21st century, are incorporated into the 3D hydrodynamic and water quality model for Lake Mead. If current management practices continue in the future, simulations indicate water temperatures will increase in all scenarios and could increase by as much 2℃under the most pessimistic scenarios, but nutrient loads would not increase to concerning levels. Releases from the dam to downstream users are projected to be much warmer, and warmer water temperatures and significant dissolved oxygen in the water column are expected to cause challenges for ecosystem and recreation in the future. Surprisingly, during the Winter and Autumn, retention of heat in Lake Mead is more pronounced at higher surface elevations than the lower elevations as expected. The effects of these projections on the lake water quality and consequently, lake management decisions, are discussed.

Sensitivity analysis for the total nitrogen pollution of the Danjiangkou Reservoir based on a 3-D water quality model

Inter-basin water deal of nitrogen are great transfers containing a great threats to human health, biodiversity, and air and water quality in the recipient area. Danjiangkou Reservoir, the source reservoir for China＇s South-to-North Water Diversion Middle Route Project, suffers from total nitrogen pollution and threatens the water transfer to a number of metropolises including the capital, Beijing. To locate the main source of nitrogen pollution into the reservoir, especially near the Taocha canal head, where the intake of water transfer begins, we constructed a 3-D water quality model. We then used an inflow sensitivity analysis method to analyze the sig- nificance of inflows from each tributary that may contribute to the total nitrogen pollution and affect water quality. The results indicated that the Han River was the most significant river with a sensitivity index of 0.340, followed by the Dan River with a sensitivity index of 0.089, while the Guanshan River and the Lang River were not significant, with the sensitivity indices of 0.002 and 0.001, respectively. This result implies that the concentration and amount of nitrogen inflow outweighs the geographical position of the tributary for sources of total nitrogen pollution to the Taocha canal head of the Danjiangkou Reservoir.

胶州湾污染物COD的三维扩散与输运研究

笔者较系统地对环胶州湾工业污染源、生活污染源和海水养殖污染源进行收集和分析 ,给出影响胶州湾海域环境的主要污染源强的大小及分布 ;在三维潮流模拟的基础上 ,建立了一个三维保守污染物COD输运的对流扩散数值模型 ;模拟所得的COD污染物分布结果与胶州湾的实际监测资料符合良好。

基于灰色动态模型群法的河流水质预测研究

水质预测是水环境规划、评价和管理工作的基础。依据灰色系统理论 ,构造了一个由 6个 GM(1,1)模型组成的灰色动态模型群 ,并运用该模型群对淮河干流枯水期氨氮浓度变化趋势进行了预测分析 ,得到令人满意的结果。研究表明 ,灰色动态模型群法能够充分利用近期水质资料信息预测未来水质变化趋势 ;以模型群统计平均值作为最终预测值 ,避免了单一灰色模型容易利用不稳定信息的缺陷 ,使得预测精度更加准确 。

多重网格有限元法在水质预测问题中的应用

本文采用多重网格—有限元法进行模拟、预报。多重网格法是求解大型科学计算问题的有效且可以证明是最优阶的方法，但目前很少有人将其用于解决实际问题，且在理论上也局限于二维问题的讨论。本文首次利用多重网格法求解地表水地下水水质耦合问题，从而拓宽了多重网格法的实际应用范围；与实际观测值对比有较高的拟合精度，有效地避免了数值弥散和振荡；且具有计算速度快。

珠江三角洲一维河网与三维河口耦合水质模型模拟与验证

在一维与三维耦合水动力、悬沙模型的基础上,构建了珠江三角洲一维与三维耦合水质模型。模型中包括浮游植物-氮-磷-碳-溶解氧循环,并考虑颗粒物在底泥与水体界面的再悬浮过程。选择了三个代表性时段(1999年1月、1999年7月与2000年)进行水质模拟,并采用相应水期的实测资料进行验证。结果表明,耦合水质模型计算效果良好,较好地再现了整个研究区域内各水质要素的时空分布规律,成功描述了珠江三角洲河网与河口区的动力与生物化学变化过程。

长江口及毗邻海域水质和生态动力学模型与应用研究

长江口及毗邻海域氮磷严重超标导致该海域赤潮频发,已严重影响到该海域的渔业资源。为系统地实施海域污染控制和生态保护措施,科学制定污染控制方案和评估行动计划实施效果,开展海域水质和生态动力学模型研究是十分必要的。在长江口及毗邻海域流场、盐度场、温度场和泥沙场模型的基础上建立了二维水质模型,主要模拟指标为高锰酸盐指数、氨氮、无机氮、无机磷,通过2005年夏季和秋季实测水质资料进行了模型的验证和率定,确定了污染物的综合降解参数。利用二维水质模型进行设计水文条件下33个概化排污口控制污染物的水质响应系数场的模拟计算,为海域容量计算和总量分配奠定了基础。建立了长江口及毗邻海域三维生态动力学模型,利用三维生态模型对应用水质模型计算得出的总量控制方案进行了校验模拟。结果表明:实施全海区功能达标控制方案后,原赤潮易发区叶绿素浓度值显著降低,叶绿素高浓度区域面积基本消失,中高浓度区域的面积也由现状方案约1万km^2减少了90%。

香港维多利亚港三维污染精细预报模型研究

本文把研究近海水域水质污染与控制的三维精细预报系统作为目标 ,在分析近海环境中各种物理、化学和生物现象的基础上 ,针对近海水域水污染的特点 ,选定一个包含有二十多个状态变量及其相互作用的三维非线性系统作为研究和模拟对象 ,建立一个统一考虑物理、化学和生物等过程综合作用的近海水域三维水动力学和水质的精细模型 。

长江口及毗邻海域水质和生态动力学模型与应用研究

为系统地实施污染控制和生态保护措施，国家环保总局从2005年起组织开展“长江口及毗邻海域碧海行动计划”调查与研究工作。评估行动计划实施效果，开展海域水质和生态动力学模型研究是十分必要的。在长江口及毗邻海域流场、盐度场、温度场和泥沙场模型的基础上建立了二维水质模型，主要模拟指标为高锰酸盐指数、氨氮、无机氮、无机磷，通过2005年夏季和秋季实测水质资料进行了模型的验证和率定，确定了污染物的综合降解参数。利用二维水质模型进行设计水文条件下33个概化排污口控制污染物的水质响应系数场的模拟计算，为海域容量计算和总量分配奠定了基础。建立了长江口及毗邻海域三维生态动力学模型，利用三维生态模型对应用水质模型计算得出的总量控制方案进行了校验模拟。结果表明：实施全海区功能达标控制方案后，原赤潮易发区叶绿素浓度值显著降低，叶绿素高浓度区域面积基本消失，中高浓度区域的面积也由现状方案约1万km^2减少了90％。

近海水域三维水动力学和水质的精细模型研究

本文把研究近海水域水质污染与控制的三维精细预报系统作为目标。在分析近海环境中各种物理、化学和生物现象的基础上 ,针对近海水域水污染的特点 ,选定一个包含有二十多个状态变量及其相互作用的三维非线性系统作为研究和模拟对象 ,建立了一个统一考虑物理、化学和生物等过程综合作用的近海水域三维水动力学和水质的精细模型 ,并成功地应用于日本博多湾的水质模拟。

基于水质目标的异龙湖流域精准治污决策研究

提出面向湖泊水质的工程设计规划方法(即精准治污)。流域精准治污决策建立在以三维水动力–水质模型为核心的时空数值源解析技术基础上,定量地表达工程措施与水质响应之间的因果关系。以处于重度富营养化的云南异龙湖为例,针对其短期治理决策问题进行精准治污决策分析。结果显示,就异龙湖中任一点的水质而言,在不同的补水情景下,城河及城北河子流域都是重要的负荷输出源。如果要使湖中和湖东站点水质达标,需要更全面地考虑各个子流域的污染源控制。当无补水时,即使大幅度削减污染负荷,也很难保证水质达标。在补水2000万m3及3500万m3情景下,补水对湖内3个监测站点的水质改善都比较明显。最后,在宏观层面上确定不同子流域重点污染控制工程类型,并在微观层面上,结合特定污染治理工程,探讨在流域精准治污体系下如何开展局地的工程评估。