Future changes in the 50-yr return level for temperature and precipitation extremes over China's Mainland are investigated based on a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The followi...Future changes in the 50-yr return level for temperature and precipitation extremes over China's Mainland are investigated based on a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The following indices are analyzed： TXx and TNn （the annual maximum and minimum of daily annual maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation） and CDD maximum and minimum surface temperature）, RX5day （the （maximum annual number of consecutive dry days）. After first validating the model performance, future changes in the 50-yr return values and return periods for these indices are investigated along with the inter-model spread. Multi-model median changes show an increase in the 50-yr return values of TXx and a decrease for TNn, more specifically, by the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5, the present day 50-yr return period of warm events is reduced to 1.2 yr, while extreme cold events over the country are projected to essentially disappear. A general increase in RX5day 50-yr return values is found in the future. By the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5, events of the present RX5day 50-yr return period are projected to reduce to 〈 10 yr over most of China. Changes in CDD-50 show a dipole pattern over China, with a decrease in the values and longer return periods in the north, and vice versa in the south. Our study also highlights the need for further improvements in the representation of extreme events in climate models to assess the future risks and engineering design related to large-scale infrastructure in China.展开更多
This paper will discuss the actual erosion estimation of the Patria Nueva micro basin in tons/ha/year (E), located in Tuxtla Gutiérrez Chiapas, Mexico. We used the universal soil loss equation (USLE), considered ...This paper will discuss the actual erosion estimation of the Patria Nueva micro basin in tons/ha/year (E), located in Tuxtla Gutiérrez Chiapas, Mexico. We used the universal soil loss equation (USLE), considered one of the best theoretical tools for planning and soil preservation in the USA and other countries. The actual erosion rates were estimated for 5, 20, 50, 100, and 500 years return periods (Rp), with elevated results due to high degrees of anthropogenic alteration of the micro-basin, especially in the last 50 years. High erosion rates generate the following problems: loss of soil, which is unfavorable for plant life, due to the soil being a non-renewable resource, the undermine can never renovate, the hydraulic area in the main channel reduces during the rainy season (when the river overflows). The sediment accumulates at the lower part of the micro-basin along with waste, garbage, and mud.展开更多
[ Objective] The study aimed to discuss analyze climate change characteristics and return periods of heavy precipitation in the northeast side of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. [ Method] Based on the data of daily precipitati...[ Objective] The study aimed to discuss analyze climate change characteristics and return periods of heavy precipitation in the northeast side of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. [ Method] Based on the data of daily precipitation from 1943 to 2008 in 6 representative meteorological stations in Linxia located in the northeast side of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the climate change characteristics of heavy precipitation were analyzed, and the return periods of heavy precipitation were calculated by Pearson-Ill probability distribution method. [ Result] Days of heavy precipitation in Linxia region in- creased conspicuously since the 1990s. The return periods of heavy precipitation in the six stations on August 20, 2008 were consistent with the re- sults of artificial estimation. [ Conclusion] The research could provide scientific references for the reasonable utilization of climate resources, disas- ter prevention and rational arranqement of anricultural plantina svstems in Linxia reaion.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2017YF0605004)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41675069)the Climate Change Specific Fund of China (Grant No. CCSF201731)
文摘Future changes in the 50-yr return level for temperature and precipitation extremes over China's Mainland are investigated based on a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The following indices are analyzed： TXx and TNn （the annual maximum and minimum of daily annual maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation） and CDD maximum and minimum surface temperature）, RX5day （the （maximum annual number of consecutive dry days）. After first validating the model performance, future changes in the 50-yr return values and return periods for these indices are investigated along with the inter-model spread. Multi-model median changes show an increase in the 50-yr return values of TXx and a decrease for TNn, more specifically, by the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5, the present day 50-yr return period of warm events is reduced to 1.2 yr, while extreme cold events over the country are projected to essentially disappear. A general increase in RX5day 50-yr return values is found in the future. By the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5, events of the present RX5day 50-yr return period are projected to reduce to 〈 10 yr over most of China. Changes in CDD-50 show a dipole pattern over China, with a decrease in the values and longer return periods in the north, and vice versa in the south. Our study also highlights the need for further improvements in the representation of extreme events in climate models to assess the future risks and engineering design related to large-scale infrastructure in China.
文摘This paper will discuss the actual erosion estimation of the Patria Nueva micro basin in tons/ha/year (E), located in Tuxtla Gutiérrez Chiapas, Mexico. We used the universal soil loss equation (USLE), considered one of the best theoretical tools for planning and soil preservation in the USA and other countries. The actual erosion rates were estimated for 5, 20, 50, 100, and 500 years return periods (Rp), with elevated results due to high degrees of anthropogenic alteration of the micro-basin, especially in the last 50 years. High erosion rates generate the following problems: loss of soil, which is unfavorable for plant life, due to the soil being a non-renewable resource, the undermine can never renovate, the hydraulic area in the main channel reduces during the rainy season (when the river overflows). The sediment accumulates at the lower part of the micro-basin along with waste, garbage, and mud.
基金Supported by the Science and Technology Research Projects of Gansu Meteorological Bureau(2013-14)
文摘[ Objective] The study aimed to discuss analyze climate change characteristics and return periods of heavy precipitation in the northeast side of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. [ Method] Based on the data of daily precipitation from 1943 to 2008 in 6 representative meteorological stations in Linxia located in the northeast side of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the climate change characteristics of heavy precipitation were analyzed, and the return periods of heavy precipitation were calculated by Pearson-Ill probability distribution method. [ Result] Days of heavy precipitation in Linxia region in- creased conspicuously since the 1990s. The return periods of heavy precipitation in the six stations on August 20, 2008 were consistent with the re- sults of artificial estimation. [ Conclusion] The research could provide scientific references for the reasonable utilization of climate resources, disas- ter prevention and rational arranqement of anricultural plantina svstems in Linxia reaion.
