NONLINEAR INTERACTION BETWEEN ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND STORM SURGES AT WUSONG TIDAL STATION

There are obvious periodic oscillations in the observations of storm surges in the East China Sea . The storm surges are not only controlled by the wind stresses and isolated long wave caused by typhoons but also affected by the interaction between astronomical tides and storm surges . In the present paper we simulate the interaction between tides and storm surges by using a two dimensional numerical model. In our numerical experiments we use the data of the storm surge induced by Typhoon 8114 . The calculations tally with the measured data well. The results indicate that the periodic osculations occurring in the elevations of the surge are mainly caused by the interaction between the tide and the storm surge . The numerical experiments also indicate that the forecasting precision may be notably improved if the nonlinear interaction between tides and storm surges is taken into account.

Effects of winds,tides and storm surges on ocean surface waves in the Sea of Japan

Ocean surface waves are strongly forced by high wind conditions associated with winter storms in the Sea of Japan. They are also modulated by tides and storm surges. The effects of the variability in surface wind forcing, tides and storm surges on the waves are investigated using a wave model, a high-resolution atmospheric mesoscale model and a hydrodynamic ocean circulation model. Five month-long wave model simulations are inducted to examine the sensitivity of ocean waves to various wind forcing fields, tides and storm surges during January 1997. Compared with observed mean wave parameters, results indicate that the high frequency variability in the surface wind filed has very great effect on wave simulation. Tides and storm surges have a significant impact on the waves in nearshores of the Tsushima-kaihyS, but not for other regions in the Sea of Japan. High spatial and temporal resolution and good quality surface wind products will be crucial for the prediction of surface waves in the JES and other marginal seas, especially near the coastal regions.

Application of SWAN+ADCIRC to tide-surge and wave simulation in Gulf of Maine during Patriot's Day storm

The southern coast of the Gulf of Maine in the United States is prone to flooding caused by nor＇easters. A state-of-the-art fully-coupled model, the Simulating WAves Nearshore （SWAN） model with unstructured grids and the ADvanced CIRCulation （ADCIRC） model, was used to study the hydrodynamic response in the Gulf of Maine during the Patriot＇s Day storm of 2007, a notable example of nor＇easters in this area. The model predictions agree well with the observed tide-surges and waves during this storm event. Waves and circulation in the Gulf of Maine were analyzed. The Georges Bank plays an important role in dissipating wave energy through the bottom friction when waves propagate over the bank from offshore to the inner gulf due to its shallow bathymetry. Wave energy dissipation results in decreasing significant wave height （SWH） in the cross-bank direction and wave radiation stress gradient, which in turn induces changes in currents. While the tidal currents are dominant over the Georges Bank and in the Bay of Fundy, the residual currents generated by the meteorological forcing and waves are significant over the Georges Bank and in the coastal area and can reach 0.3 m/s and 0.2 m/s, respectively. In the vicinity of the coast, the longshore current generated by the surface wind stress and wave radiation stress acting parallel to the coastline is inversely proportional to the water depth and will eventually be limited by the bottom friction. The storm surge level reaches 0.8 m along the western periphery of the Gulf of Maine while the wave set-up due to radiation stress variation reaches 0.2 m. Therefore, it is significant to coastal flooding.

STUDY ON BOTTOM STRESS UNDER CONDITIONS OF STORM SURGE AND TIDE

Sea bottom stress is conventionally assumed to be directly proportional to the square of the verticallyaveraged velocity,and the drag coefficient to be dependent on the speed and direction of the wind on the sea surface,the depth and dimension of the sea,the period of the tide and so on. In this paper a three-dimensional numerical model is used to discuss the relation the dragcoefficient and the above-mentioned factors.It can be shown from calculation that the relation, is valid,that the drag coefficient is a constant in a major part of a sea as thought conventionally,andthat there is a small area near the coast where the drag coefficient is far greater.We call it singular area. A number of conclusions on the relation between the drag coefficient and the speed and direction ofthe wind,the sea depth and so on,were obtained.

High Resolution Regional and Coastal Operational Storm Surges/Tide Forecasting System in Korea

This study was performed to compare storm surges/tide simulated by the regional and coastal storm surges/tide forecast system （RTSM （regional tide/storm surges model）, CTSM （coastal tide/storm surges model）） using two different inputs from weather models （RDAPS （Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System） and KWRF （Korea Weather and Research Forecasting）） during two typhoons that occurred between 2007 and 2008. Both the RDAPS and KWRF are the operational weather forecasting system in KMA （Korea Meteorological Administration）. The horizontal resolutions of RDAPS and KWRF are 30 and 10 km, respectively. The storm surges/tide was hind casted using sea wind and pressure fields of two Typhoons which was approaching Korean Peninsula. The CTSM using input from KWRF simulate very well the storm surges/tide pattern in the complex coastal areas. The result showed that the storm surges by the coastal storm surges/tide model with high resolution input was in well agreement with the observed sea level occurred by high tide and storm surges in the coastal areas.

INFLUENCE OF SEA LEVEL RISE ON SHANGHAI ASTRONOMICAL TIDE AND STORM SURGE AND ESTIMATION OF PROBABLE WATER LEVEL

A nonlinear two-dimension dynamic model of storm surge (SS) and astronomical tide(AT) was used to investigate the effects of SS and AT on expected sea level rise (SLR) at principalcoastal stations in the Shanghai region and to estimate numerically the probable maximum water lerel for2010 - 2050. Evidence suggests tha SLR causes reduction of SS; that its influence on SS depends on theintensity and path of a tropical cyclone and the station locality; tha the SLR’s effects on AT vary periodi-cally, with the peried being the same as tha of the AT’s: and that as the SLR increment grows, its impactincreases; below mean sea level (MSL) the effect is positive at rising tide and negative at ebb tide, andvice versa for the effect above MSL. Study of the probable maximum water level (by assuming SLR, SSalong favorable tropical cyclone’s path, its possible maximum intensity and effectivee spring AT at a rangeof set paths of Cyclones 5612, 8114, 9417) showed that the probable maximum water level is 740, 745,and 751 cm in the years 2010, 2030, and 2050, respetively, over the target region.

中国沿海地区热带气旋危险性分析

基于1980—2016年的西北太平洋热带气旋尺度资料,采用2种方法分析了热带气旋灾害的危险性。第一种方法根据热带气旋的风圈半径,用GIS生成了每个气旋的影响范围,对于登陆中国沿海的227个热带气旋,用叠加法得到了其影响范围与频次。第二种方法侧重热带气旋引发的风暴潮灾害,用潮位模型估算了热带气旋登陆时的潮位数据,提出了H3指标,该指标用潮位、风速和中心气压3个因子计算潮位点的风暴潮危险性,并根据H3指标得到了海岸线的危险性综合指标。分析结果表明,福建、广东两省受热带气旋的影响最为严重。37 a间,福建省有80%的面积(约9.8万km^(2))受热带气旋影响的频次超过20次;广东省则有70%的面积(约12.6万km2)受热带气旋影响的频次超过20次。受风暴潮危害大的海岸线主要位于广东、广西、福建、浙江四省,危险性指标在30以上的有广东的湛江市、茂名市、江门市、阳江市和珠海市;广西的北海市、防城港市和钦州市;福建的福州市以及浙江的台州市和温州市。

渤、黄海天文潮—风暴潮相互作用及其对极值水位的贡献

基于Delft3D模型建立了中国渤、黄海风暴潮数值模型,选取1979—2020年影响该海域的93场风暴过程(包括台风、寒潮和温带气旋),模拟了所产生的风暴增水和风暴潮总水位。采用泊松—皮尔逊复合极值分布理论,推算了渤、黄海对应不同重现期的极值水位;通过数值试验,对天文潮—风暴潮非线性相互作用对极值水位的贡献进行了量化分析。研究结果表明,渤海的莱州湾、渤海湾,以及黄海的江华湾、西朝鲜湾风暴增水最大,其中江华湾北侧和渤海湾西南侧的百年一遇风暴增水可达4 m;天文潮—风暴潮非线性相互作用在潮差较大、水深较浅的河口、湾顶区域更为显著,与耦合模型结果相比,非线性作用使极值水位值偏小,天文潮、风暴潮增水的线性叠加可显著高估极值水位,高估的幅值可达0.5~0.8 m。考虑重现期极值水位是海岸灾害防护工程的关键设计参数之一,对海岸构筑物的安全和建造成本影响极大,应重视天文潮—风暴潮非线性相互作用对重现期水位的影响。

浙江省台风影响预测及沿海风险识别系统研究

浙江省台风灾情频发,为科学应对台风威胁,通过优化相似台风匹配算法、对历史台风资料进行整理并作降雨网格化处理、海岸增水数据网格处理和海岸风险分析,切实解决了目前系统存在相似台风匹配不精确、无台风降雨过程和沿海增水展示不直观、缺少海岸线风险识别等问题,为新形势下的台风预报预警提供有力的技术支撑。

河口强排泵闸在高潮叠加风暴潮条件下的应用研究

为了降低高潮叠加风暴潮对相关地区的影响,研究将河口强排泵闸技术用于泄洪排涝水利工程中,以期降低对相关地区的损失。通过对河口强排泵闸进行模拟试验,结果显示,使用该技术后,各检测点泄洪排涝后的实际水位与预期水位之间的差距均在1cm之间,同时当地生态环境质量评分显著提高;2023年第三季度的经济损失降低89%。表明研究提出的河口强排泵闸可以提高泄洪排涝的效率,降低经济损失和人员伤亡。

Simulation of Storm Surge and Wave Due to Typhoon Isewan(5915)

An integrally coupled wave-tide-surge model was developed and then applied to the simulation of the wave-typhoon surge for the typhoon Isewan （typhoon Vera （5915））, which is the strongest typhoon that has struck Japan and caused incalculable damage. An integrally coupled tide-surge-wave model using identical and homogeneous meshes in an unstructured grid system was used to correctly resolve the physics of wave-circulation interaction in both models. All model components were validated independently. The storm surge and wave properties such as the surge height, the significant wave height, wave period and direction were reproduced reasonably under the meteorological forcing, which was reprocessed to be close to the observations. The resulting modeling system can be used extensively for the prediction of the storm surge and waves and the usual barotropic forecast.

Numerical Investigation of High Tide Level Due to A Super Typhoon in A Coastal Region

A numerical model of the couphng between astronomical tide and storm surge based on Mike 21 is applied to the coastal regions of Zhejiang Province. The model is used to simulate high tide levels combined with storm surge during 5 typhoons, including two super typhoons, that landed in the Province. In the model, the atmospheric forcing fields are calculated with parametric wind and pressure models. The computational results, with average computed errors of 13 cm for the high astronomical tide levels and 20 cm for the high storm-tide levels, show that the model yields good simulations. Typhoon No. 5612, the most intense to land in China since 1949, is taken as the typical super typhoon for the de- sign of 5 typhoon routes, each landing at a different location along the coast. The possible extreme storm-tide levels along the coast are calculated by the model under the conditions of the 5 designed typhoon routes when they coincide with the spring tide. Results are compared with the high storm-tide levels due to the increase of the central atmospheric pressure at the base of a typical super typhoon, the change of tidal type, and the behavior of a Saomai-type typhoon. The results have practical significance for forecasting and minimization of damage during super typhoons.

The diurnal transport of atmospheric water vapor during major dust storms on Mars based on the Mars Climate Database,version 5.3

In recent studies of the Martian atmosphere,strong diurnal variation in the dust was discovered in the southern hemisphere during major dust storms,which provides strong evidence that the commonly recognized meridional transport process is driven by thermal tides.This process,when coupled with deep convection,could be an important part of the short-term atmospheric dynamics of water escape.However,the potential of this process to alter the horizontal distribution of moist air has not been systematically investigated.In this work,we conducted pre-research on the horizontal transport of water vapor associated with the migrating diurnal tide(DW1)at 50 Pa in the upper troposphere during major dust storms based on the Mars Climate Database(MCD)5.3,a state-of-the-art database for Martian atmospheric research that has been validated as simulating the relevant short-period atmospheric dynamics well.We found westward-propagating diurnal patterns in the global water vapor front during nearly all the major dust storms from Martian years(MYs)24 to 32.Statistical and correlation analyses showed that the diurnal transport of water vapor during global and A-season regional dust storms is dominated by the DW1.The effect of the tidal transport of water vapor varies with the types of dust storms in different seasons.During regional dust storms,the tidal transport induces only limited diurnal motion of the water vapor.However,the horizontal tidal wind tends to increase the abundance of daytime water vapor at mid-to low latitudes during the MY 28 southern summer global dust storm while decreasing it during the MY 25 southern spring global dust storm.The tidal transport process during these two global dust storms can induce opposite effects on water escape.

Numerical study on effect of tidal phase on storm surge in the South Yellow Sea

Because of the special topography and large tidal range in the South Yellow Sea,the dynamic process of tide and storm surge is very complicated.The shallow water circulation model Advanced Circulation(ADCIRC)was used to simulate the storm surge process during typhoon Winnie,Prapiroon,and Damrey,which represents three types of tracks attacking the South Yellow Sea,which are,moving northward after landing,no landing but active in offshore areas,and landing straightly to the coastline.Numerical experiments were carried out to investigate the effects of tidal phase on the tide-surge interaction as well as storm surge.The results show that the peak surge caused by Winnie and Prapiroon occurs 2-5 h before the high tide and its occurring time relative to high tide has little change with tidal phase variations.On the contrary,under the action of Damrey,the occurring time of the peak surge relative to high tide varies with tidal phase.The variation of tide-surge interaction is about 0.06-0.37 m,and the amplitude variations of interaction are smooth when tidal phase changes for Typhoon Winnie and Prapiroon.While the interaction is about 0.07-0.69 m,and great differences exists among the stations for Typhoon Damrey.It can be concluded that the tide-surge interaction of the former is dominated by the tidal phase modulation,and the time of surge peak is insensitive to the tidal phase variation.While the interaction of the latter is dominated by storm surge modulation due to the water depth varying with tide,the time of surge peak is significantly affected by tidal phase.Therefore,influence of tidal phase on storm surge is related to typhoon tracks which may provide very useful information at the design stage of coastal protection systems.

Storm surge disaster evaluation model based on an artificial neural network

Back propagation is employed to forecast the current of a storm with various characteristics of storm surge; the technique is thus important in disaster forecasting. One of the most fuzzy types of information in the prediction of geological calamity is handled employing the information diffusion method. First, a single-step prediction model and neural network prediction model are employed to collect influential information used to predict the extreme tide level. Second, information is obtained using the information diffusion method, which improves the precision of risk recognition when there is insufficient information. Experiments demonstrate that the method proposed in this paper is simple and effective and provides better forecast results than other methods. Future work will focus on a more precise forecast model.

Effects of tide-surge interaction and wave set-up/set-down on surge: case studies of tropical cyclones landing China's Zhe-Min coast

Storm surge along the China＇s Zhe-Min coast is addressed using the tightly coupled surge model ofADCIRC＋SWAN. In this study, we primarily focus on the effects of surge-tide interaction and waveset-up/set-down. And the influences of intensity and landing moment of tropical cyclone （TC） arealso presented. The results show that： water elevation without considering tide-surge interactiontends to be underestimated/overestimated when TC lands during astronomical low/high tide;tide-surge coupling effect is more pronounced north of TC track （more than 0.7 m in our cases）;irrelevant to TC＇s intensity, wave set-up south of TC track is negligible because the depth-relatedwave breaking doesn＇t occur in water body blown towards open seas.

孟加拉湾1991-2020年风暴潮模拟及湾顶最大增水的时相特征

研究风暴潮期间的增水过程、振幅和时相特征对提高风暴潮实时预报的精度和减轻灾害损失具有重要价值。采用径流、潮汐、风、波浪耦合模型模拟了孟加拉湾1991-2020年期间对湾顶布里斯瓦尔河口一带增水影响最大的28次热带气旋过程。结果显示,由风暴潮总水位减去天文潮位得到的总增水极值相对于天文潮高潮位的出现时刻集中于涨潮阶段,占总次数的89.3%,并且集中于高潮位前的3h和4h。增水过程呈现“(准)孤立波”和“(准)周期性振动”两大类型,其中孤立波形式的增水过程有的在涨潮阶段便完成,也有的持续一个完整的涨、落潮阶段。风暴潮增水-天文潮相互作用曲线具有与天文潮同样周期的振动特征,其振幅与潮差的大小相关,呈现出“涨峰-落谷”与“涨谷-落峰”两种类型,二者具有180°的相位差。热带气旋的行进方向与潮流同逆向、登陆时的潮相、海岸陷波(边缘波)的形成与传播等是决定总增水极值时相特征的主要动力机制。

基于NARX神经网络的极端风暴潮事件预报研究

通过构建采用外部输入的非线性自回归神经网络(NARX),利用1979年1月1日00时—2003年12月25日23时逐时的实测潮位数据和再分析气象数据结合调和分析预报结果搭建模型,对库克斯(Cuxhaven)港口2004—2018年中增水最大的两次风暴潮极端事件潮位进行预报和验证,同时对影响模型性能的参数进行量化分析。结果表明:在NARX神经网络延迟数为24 h时模型的精度最高,两次极端风暴潮验证下的R2分别为0.94和0.95,且在最高潮位时的误差分别为57.78 cm和26.55 cm。实验中模型在延迟数方面存在阈值,当延迟数为24 h时模型效果最佳,在延迟数达到阈值前模型的精度逐渐上升,超过该阈值后模型精度下降;输入时间数据序列的长短会影响模型的精度,序列越长模型精度越高,但影响效果会逐渐降低。

台风“米娜”影响下的杭州湾风暴潮特征及对咸潮的影响

基于2019年台风“米娜”风暴潮期间的实测资料,应用ADCIRC海洋模型,开展杭州湾周边海域台风风暴潮数值模拟,刻画台风期间杭州湾海域风暴增减水过程及其时空分布,并分析杭州湾风暴增减水特征以及对钱塘江咸潮入侵的影响。结果显示:芦潮港、滩浒、岱山和沈家门这4个验潮站模拟天文潮位的平均绝对误差分别为22 cm、19 cm、10 cm和14 cm,最大风暴增水的绝对误差分别为6 cm、1 cm、6 cm和7 cm,模型模拟结果良好。台风影响期间,杭州湾(湾底)的风暴增水明显大于(湾口)岛屿,滩浒站最大增水为111 cm,沈家门站最大增水为74 cm;舟山外海—杭州湾的天文潮-风暴潮的非线性作用逐渐增大,在风暴增水达到最大的过程中,各站天文潮-风暴潮的非线性作用分别为24 cm、26 cm、14 cm和4 cm;钱塘江咸潮入侵程度主要取决于径流和潮汐强度,风暴增水会在一定程度上加剧咸潮入侵灾害,在台风“米娜”风暴增水期间,钱塘江发生咸潮入侵,造成南星水厂氯度值超标41 h,因此在台风影响期间需要提前预判风暴潮对咸潮入侵的影响,做好科学应对。

台风路径北移对黄渤海风暴潮增水影响研究

热带气旋生命史最大强度(LMI)的年平均纬度在全球主要的热带气旋盆地中向极地移动,正在改变有关海域风暴潮增水的统计结论,对港区潮位设防标准的确定构成影响,西北太平洋(WNP)尤其明显。应用二维水动力模型MIKE21以及Holland台风模型建立天文潮-风暴潮耦合模型,模拟2106号“烟花”台风期间的风暴潮,并设置3个情景,将“烟花”台风的路径向北平移,分析其对黄渤海海域风暴潮增水的影响。初步得出台风路径北移3°,渤海海域风暴潮整体增水幅度达17%,连云港至启东角沿岸30 m水深范围内风暴潮增水幅度达32%等结论,以资沿岸防灾减灾及确定港区潮位设防标准时参考。