Among all the structural vibration characteristics, natural frequencies are relatively simple and accurate to measure, and provide the structural global damage informalion. In this paper, the feasibility of using only...Among all the structural vibration characteristics, natural frequencies are relatively simple and accurate to measure, and provide the structural global damage informalion. In this paper, the feasibility of using only natural frequencies to identify structural damage is exploited by adopting two usual approaches, namely, sensitivity analysis and neural networks. S, ome aspects of damage detection such as the problem of incomplete modal test data and robustness of detection are considered. A laboratory tested 3 storey frame is used to demonstrate the possibility of frequency-based damage detection techniques. The numerical results show that the damaged element can be correctly localized and the content of damage can be identified with relatively high degree of accuracy by using the changes in frequencies.展开更多
The systematic mathematical analysis of the high frequency soft-switched AC-AC converter is proposed for variable frequency induction machine load in this paper. Both PWM and square-wave modes of operation have been c...The systematic mathematical analysis of the high frequency soft-switched AC-AC converter is proposed for variable frequency induction machine load in this paper. Both PWM and square-wave modes of operation have been considered. The frequency relation and phase unbalance problem due to discrete time integral half-cycle switching has been discussed in the beginning. Then, generalized Fourier series have been derived for output voltage, output current and supply current in two modes.The analytical results help to understand tbe converter characteristics, design optimally a convertermachine system of arbitrary capacity considering the various trade-off parameters.展开更多
We present a new digital phase lock technology to achieve the frequency control and transformation through high precision multi-cycle group synchronization between signals without the frequency transformation circuit....We present a new digital phase lock technology to achieve the frequency control and transformation through high precision multi-cycle group synchronization between signals without the frequency transformation circuit. In the case of digital sampling, the passing zero point of the phase of the controlled signal has the phase step characteristic, the phase step of the passing zero point is monotonic continuous with high resolution in the phase lock process, and using the border effect of digital fuzzy area, the gate can synchronize with the two signals, the quantization error is reduced. This technique is quite different from the existing methods of frequency transformation and frequency synthesis, the phase change characteristic between the periodic signals with different nominal is used. The phase change has the periodic phenomenon, and it has the high resolution step value. With the application of the physical law, the noise is reduced because of simplifying frequency transformation circuits, and the phase is locked with high precision. The regular phase change between frequency signals is only used for frequency measurement, and the change has evident randomness, but this randomness is greatly reduced in frequency control, and the certainty of the process result is clear. The experiment shows that the short term frequency stability can reach 10-12/s orders of magnitude.展开更多
By the aftershock frequency estimation method based on the calculation of coseismic static Coulomb stress changes and rate-and state-dependent fault constitutive law,we calculate the frequency of "direct "af...By the aftershock frequency estimation method based on the calculation of coseismic static Coulomb stress changes and rate-and state-dependent fault constitutive law,we calculate the frequency of "direct "aftershocks of the Wenchuan earthquake related to coseismic static Coulomb stress changes in its aftershock zone and the areas nearby.It shows that the frequency is significantly lower than the truth in the main rupture zone,especially in the southern rupture zone,due to the decrease of stress level on the rupture plane of the main shock resulting from coseismic Coulomb stress change.The study also shows that the effect of the Coulomb stress change on the duration of aftershock activity is associated with the lower limit magnitude.The duration is about 15-16 months for aftershocks above ML4.0,and close to 60 months for aftershocks above ML3.5.In this period,the ratio of the"direct"aftershocks caused by coseismic Coulomb stress change ranges between 44.7% to48.6%,which suggests that,even in the "effective"period of coseismic Coulomb stress changes,about half of the aftershocks on the main shock rupture plane are independent of coseismic Coulomb stress changes.It is pointed out that those aftershocks may be related to the afterslip or the viscoelastic relaxation,which are time dependent cases.展开更多
This paper comprehensively studies the spatio-temporal characteristics of the frequency of extremely heavy precipitation events over South China by using the daily precipitation data of 110 stations during 1961 to 200...This paper comprehensively studies the spatio-temporal characteristics of the frequency of extremely heavy precipitation events over South China by using the daily precipitation data of 110 stations during 1961 to 2008 and the extremely heavy precipitation thresholds determined for different stations by REOF, trend coefficients, linear trend, Mann-Kendall test and variance analysis. The results are shown as follows. The frequency distribution of extremely heavy precipitation is high in the middle of South China and low in the Guangdong coast and western Guangxi. There are three spatial distribution types of extremely heavy precipitation in South China. The consistent anomaly distribution is the main type. Distribution reversed between the east and the west and between the south and the north is also an important type. Extremely heavy precipitation events in South China mainly occurred in the summer-half of the year. Their frequency during this time accounts for 83.7% of the total frequency. In the 1960 s and 1980 s, extremely heavy precipitation events were less frequent while having an increasing trend from the late 1980 s. Their climatological tendency rates decrease in the central and rise in the other areas of South China, and on average the mean series also shows an upward but insignificant trend at all of the stations. South China's frequency of extremely heavy precipitation events can be divided into six major areas and each of them shows a different inter-annual trend and three of the representative stations experience abrupt changes by showing remarkable increases in terms of Mann-Kendall tests.展开更多
The inertia response and primary frequency regulation capability of synchronous grids are declining owing to the increasing penetration of inverter-based resources. The fast frequency response(FFR) of inverter-based r...The inertia response and primary frequency regulation capability of synchronous grids are declining owing to the increasing penetration of inverter-based resources. The fast frequency response(FFR) of inverter-based resources is an important mitigation option for maintaining grid security under the conditions of low inertia and insufficient primary frequency response capability. However, the understanding and technical characteristics of the FFR of inverter-based resources are still unclear. Aiming at solving the aforementioned problems, this paper proposes a definition for FFR based on the impact mechanism of FFR on system frequency. The performance requirements of FFR are clarified. Then, the effects of FFR on system frequency characteristics are further analyzed based on steady-state frequency deviation, the initial rate of change of frequency, and the maximum transient frequency deviation. Finally, the system requirements for FFR and its application effects are verified by simulating an actual bulk power grid, providing technical support for subsequent engineering application.展开更多
Estimating the design flood under nonstationary conditions is challenging. In this study, a sample reconstruction approach was developed to transform a nonstationary series into a stationary one in a future time windo...Estimating the design flood under nonstationary conditions is challenging. In this study, a sample reconstruction approach was developed to transform a nonstationary series into a stationary one in a future time window (FTW). In this approach, the first-order moment (EFTW) of an extreme flood series in the FTW was used, and two possible methods of estimating EFTW values in terms of point values and confidence intervals were developed. Three schemes were proposed to analyze the uncertainty of design flood estimation in terms of sample representativeness, uncertainty from EFTW estimation, and both factors, respectively. To investigate the performance of the sample reconstruction approach, synthesis experiments were designed based on the annual peak series of the Little Sugar Creek in the United States. The results showed that the sample reconstruction approach performed well when the high-order moment of the series did not change significantly in the specified FTW. Otherwise, its performance deteriorated. In addition, the uncertainty of design flood estimation caused by sample representativeness was greater than that caused by EFTW estimation.展开更多
Natural hazards such as hurricanes may cause extensive economic losses and social disruption for civil structures and infrastructures in coastal areas, implying the importance of understanding the construction perform...Natural hazards such as hurricanes may cause extensive economic losses and social disruption for civil structures and infrastructures in coastal areas, implying the importance of understanding the construction performance subjected to hurricanes and assessing the hurricane damages properly. The intensity and frequency of hurricanes have been reported to change with time due to the potential impact of climate change.In this paper, a probability-based model of hurricane damage assessment for coastal constructions is proposed taking into account the non-stationarity in hurricane intensity and frequency. The nonhomogeneous Poisson process is employed to model the non-stationarity in hurricane occurrence while the non-stationarity in hurricane intensity is reflected by the time-variant statistical parameters(e.g., mean value and/or standard deviation), with which the mean value and variation of the cumulative hurricane damage are evaluated explicitly. The Miami-Dade County, Florida, USA, is chosen to illustrate the hurricane damage assessment method proposed in this paper. The role of non-stationarity in hurricane intensity and occurrence rate due to climate change in hurricane damage is investigated using some representative changing patterns of hurricane parameters.展开更多
This paper deals with the problem of H∞ fault estimation for linear time-delay systems in finite frequency domain.First a generalized coordinate change is applied to the original system such that in the new coordinat...This paper deals with the problem of H∞ fault estimation for linear time-delay systems in finite frequency domain.First a generalized coordinate change is applied to the original system such that in the new coordinates all the time-delay terms are injected by the system's input and output.Then an observer-based H∞ fault estimator with input and output injections is proposed for fault estimation with known frequency range.With the aid of Generalized Kalman-Yakubovich-Popov lemma,sufficient conditions on the existence of the H∞ fault estimator are derived and a solution to the observer gain matrices is obtained by solving a set of linear matrix inequalities.Finally,a numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.展开更多
Based on the characteristics of gradual change style seismic signal onset which has more high frequency signal components but less magnitude, this paper selects Gauss linear frequency modulation wavelet as base functi...Based on the characteristics of gradual change style seismic signal onset which has more high frequency signal components but less magnitude, this paper selects Gauss linear frequency modulation wavelet as base function to study the change characteristics of Gauss linear frequency modulation wavelet transform with difference wavelet and signal parameters, analyzes the error origin of seismic phases identification on the basis of Gauss linear frequency modulation wavelet transform, puts forward a kind of new method identifying gradual change style seismic phases with background noise which is called fixed scale wavelet transform ratio, and presents application examples about simulation digital signal and actual seismic phases recording onsets identification.展开更多
Annual maximum rainfall intensity for several duration and return periods has been analyzed according to the Gumbel distribution. The Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves before and after 1980 have been computed ...Annual maximum rainfall intensity for several duration and return periods has been analyzed according to the Gumbel distribution. The Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves before and after 1980 have been computed and compared. For the city of Toronto, it is shown that the rainfall intensities after 1980 are lower than those from before this date. This is especially clear for those of short duration. Comparing our results with those of other authors, it appears that, for the moment, no general law on the impact of global warming on the curves intensity duration frequency cannot be made. It appears that the impact of global warming on rainfall varies with geographic location and that it is not possible to draw some general conclusions across the planet.展开更多
Based on the Gauss linear frequency modulated wavelet transform, a new characteristic index is presented, namely time frequency energy attenuation factor which can reflect the difference features of waveform in earthq...Based on the Gauss linear frequency modulated wavelet transform, a new characteristic index is presented, namely time frequency energy attenuation factor which can reflect the difference features of waveform in earthquake focus mechanism, wave traveling path and its attenuation characteristics in focal area or near field. In order to test its validity, we select the natural earthquakes and explosion or collapse events whose focus mechanisms vary obviously,and some natural earthquakes located at the same site or in a very small area. The study indicates that the time frequency energy attenuation factors of the natural earthquakes are obviously different with that of explosion or collapse events, and the change of the time frequency energy attenuation factors is relatively stable for the earthquakes under the normal seismicity background. Using the above mentioned method, it is expected to offer a useful criterion for strong earthquake prediction by continuous earthquake observation.展开更多
The influence of low-frequency sonolysis on the kinetics bimolecular liquid-phase reactions was studied with due regard for the association (dimers and trimers) of starting reagents. The mathematical modeling of chemi...The influence of low-frequency sonolysis on the kinetics bimolecular liquid-phase reactions was studied with due regard for the association (dimers and trimers) of starting reagents. The mathematical modeling of chemical reactions that were described by nonlinear differential equations is performed. The steady states, the singular points characteristics, the nature of concentration oscillations in the reaction system are described. With increasing frequency and amplitude of low-frequency sonic waves (up to some critical value), we observed the cessation of the reaction. This observation offers an additional tool for controlling reaction rate by the external action of low-frequency vibrations. The conclusions of the work are obtained under certain assumptions. The exact determination of the critical conditions for changes in dynamics is beyond the scope of the problem.展开更多
Based on daily precipitation data from 163 meteorological stations, this study investigated precipitation changes in the mid-latitudes of the Chinese mainland(MCM) during 1960–2014 using the climatic trend coeffici...Based on daily precipitation data from 163 meteorological stations, this study investigated precipitation changes in the mid-latitudes of the Chinese mainland(MCM) during 1960–2014 using the climatic trend coefficient, least-squared regression analysis, and a non-parametric Mann-Kendall test.According to the effects of the East Asian summer monsoon on the MCM and the climatic trend coefficient of annual precipitation during 1960–2014, we divided the MCM into the western MCM and eastern MCM. The western MCM was further divided into the western MCM1 and western MCM2 in terms of the effects of the East Asian summer monsoon. The main results were as follows:(1) During the last four decades of the 20^(th) century, the area-averaged annual precipitation presented a significant increasing trend in the western MCM, but there was a slight decreasing trend in the eastern MCM, where a seesaw pattern was apparent. However, in the 21^(st) century, the area-averaged annual precipitation displayed a significant increasing trend in both the western and eastern MCM.(2) The trend in area-averaged seasonal precipitation during 1960–2014 in the western MCM was consistent with that in the eastern MCM in winter and spring. However, the trend in area-averaged summer precipitation during1960–2014 displayed a seesaw pattern between the western and eastern MCM.(3) On an annual basis,both the trend in rainstorms and heavy rain displayed a seesaw pattern between the western and eastern MCM.(4) The precipitation intensity in rainstorms, heavy rain, and moderate rain made a greater contribution to changes in the total precipitation than precipitation frequency. The results of this study will improve our understanding of the trends and differences in precipitation changes in different areas of the MCM. This is not only useful for the management and mitigation of flood disasters, but is also beneficial to the protection of water resources across the MCM.展开更多
Impact and adaptation assessments of climate change often require more detailed information of future extreme rainfall events at higher resolution in space and/or time, which is usually, projected using the Global Cli...Impact and adaptation assessments of climate change often require more detailed information of future extreme rainfall events at higher resolution in space and/or time, which is usually, projected using the Global Climate Model (GCM) for different emissions of greenhouse concentration. In this paper, future rainfall in the North West region of England has been generated from the outputs of the HadCM3 Global Climate Model through downscaling , employing a hybrid Generalised Linear Model (GLM) together with an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Using two emission scenarios (A1FI and B1), the hybrid downscaling model was proven to have the capability to successfully simulate future rainfall. A combined peaks-over-threshold (POT)-Generalised Pareto Distribution approach was then used to model the extreme rainfall and then assess changes to seasonal trends over the region at a daily scale until the end of the 21st century. In general, extreme rainfall is predicted to be more frequent in winter seasons for both high (A1FI) and low (B1) scenarios, however for summer seasons, the region is predicted to experience some increase in extreme rainfall under the high scenario and a drop under the low scenario. The variation in intensity of extreme rainfall was found to be based on location,season, future period, return period as well as the emission scenario used.展开更多
The platform-facies carbonate rocks of the Carboniferous-Permian boundary strata are well developed and outcropped in Xikou (西口), Zhen'an (镇安) County, Shaanxi ( 陕西 ) Province, China. The carbonate diagenc...The platform-facies carbonate rocks of the Carboniferous-Permian boundary strata are well developed and outcropped in Xikou (西口), Zhen'an (镇安) County, Shaanxi ( 陕西 ) Province, China. The carbonate diagencsis in the Carboniferous-Permian boundary section at Xikou contains many processes with conspicuous effects, including micritization, cementation, mechanical and chemical compaction, neomorphism, and dissolution. Based on mineralogical composition and microfabrics, the diagenetic environments are distinguished into marine, near surface meteoric and burial environments. Detailed petrographical observation of abundant thin sections integrated with previous studies on sequence stratigraphy reveals that the carbonate diagenesis in the Carboniferous-Permian boundary section is related to the relative stratigraphic position of the rocks in the high-frequency cycles and controlled by the glacioeustatic sea-level changes. There are distinctive differences in diagenetic patterns between the lower transgressive sequence and the upper regressive sequence in a cyclothem. The diagenesis in the lower transgressive sequence is mainly characterized by pressure dissolution and recrystallization of mudstone and wackstone in a burial environment, and the diagenesis in the upper regressive sequence by cementation and leaching of freshwater in a meteoric environment.展开更多
The present work aims to assess the likely effects of climate change on the length of growing period (LGP) of crops in Marina Baixa (SE, Spain). LGP can be assessed by a balance between preci- pitation and reference e...The present work aims to assess the likely effects of climate change on the length of growing period (LGP) of crops in Marina Baixa (SE, Spain). LGP can be assessed by a balance between preci- pitation and reference evapotranspiration. Less rainfall and an increased evapotranspiration, forecast by Global Climate Models (GCMs), are considered as a high risk for agriculture. This area is located in a semiarid climate region where water is a very limited resource. It is a typical example of areas where the agricultural sector has to compete for water with the tourism industry. In this context, by using observed and projected precipitation data set (model HadCM3, Scenario A2), calculating reference evapotranspiration (ETo), and applying the frequency analysis of a probability-type method, we estimated the growing period length in the observed period (1961-1990) and three 30-year future periods (2011-40, 2041-70 and 2071-99) in the study area. The results show a drop in annual precipitations (-?30%) and an increased ETo (+18%) towards the end of this century with respect to the observed period (mean annual rainfall: 356 mm;mean ETo: 1476 mm). The results also show a decrease in the number of decades (10 days) when precipitation exceeds half of the ETo, which means shorter growing periods as the 21st century advances. This expected reduction in growing period length towards the end of the present century will imply that many rainfed crops, like olives, almonds and cereals, will require a higher irrigation water supply to maintain suitable growth and performance levels. The results are an early warning to manage water resources in Marina Baixa in a sustainable way.展开更多
Ongoing climate changes have a direct impact on forest growth;they also affect natural fire regimes,with further implications for forest composition.Understanding of how these will affect forests on decadal-to-centenn...Ongoing climate changes have a direct impact on forest growth;they also affect natural fire regimes,with further implications for forest composition.Understanding of how these will affect forests on decadal-to-centennial timescales is limited.Here we use reconstructions of past vegetation,fire regimes and climate during the Holocene to examine the relative importance of changes in climate and fire regimes for the abundance of key tree species in northeastern China.We reconstructed vegetation changes and fire regimes based on pollen and charcoal records from Gushantun peatland.We then used generalized linear modelling to investigate the impact of reconstructed changes in summer temperature,annual precipitation,background levels of fire,fire frequency and fire magnitude to identify the drivers of decadal-to-centennial changes in forest openness and composition.Changes in climate and fire regimes have independent impacts on the abundance of the key tree taxa.Climate variables are generally more important than fire variables in determining the abundance of individual taxa.Precipitation is the only determinant of forest openness,but summer temperature is more important than precipitation for individual tree taxa with warmer summers causing a decrease in cold-tolerant conifers and an increase in warmth-demanding broadleaved trees.Both background level and fire frequency have negative relationships with the abundance of most tree taxa;only Pinus increases as fire frequency increases.The magnitude of individual fires does not have a significant impact on species abundance on this timescale.Both climate and fire regime characteristics must be considered to understand changes in forest composition on the decadal-to-centennial timescale.There are differences,both in sign and magnitude,in the response of individual tree species to individual drivers.展开更多
新能源渗透率的提高增加了电网频率控制的复杂度,储能辅助电网调频能在一定程度上缓解该问题,但受储能运行的安全性与经济性约束,要求调频措施更具针对性。文中对此展开研究,提出一种基于频率响应特性的储能辅助电网一次调频方法。首先...新能源渗透率的提高增加了电网频率控制的复杂度,储能辅助电网调频能在一定程度上缓解该问题,但受储能运行的安全性与经济性约束,要求调频措施更具针对性。文中对此展开研究,提出一种基于频率响应特性的储能辅助电网一次调频方法。首先,在储能辅助电网调频模型基础上,选择惯性加下垂的储能辅助电网调频综合控制方法,通过电网频率变化率(rate of change of frequency,RoCoF)、频率偏差与调频需求的关联性分析,设计基于频率响应特性的调频需求分区规则;然后,根据不同调频需求对应的分区判断,对储能有功输出方式进行动态调整,以响应调频需求的不确定性,并在此基础上,针对调频需求与储能出力需求、储能出力强弱与其循环使用寿命间的矛盾关系,通过多目标优化问题的设计与求解来予以平衡;最后,仿真结果验证了所提方法能够在保证电网调频效果的基础上,有效降低储能充放电深度。展开更多
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Founda-tion of China (No.50378041) and the Specialized Research Fund forthe Doctoral Program of Higher Education ( Grant No.20030487016) .
文摘Among all the structural vibration characteristics, natural frequencies are relatively simple and accurate to measure, and provide the structural global damage informalion. In this paper, the feasibility of using only natural frequencies to identify structural damage is exploited by adopting two usual approaches, namely, sensitivity analysis and neural networks. S, ome aspects of damage detection such as the problem of incomplete modal test data and robustness of detection are considered. A laboratory tested 3 storey frame is used to demonstrate the possibility of frequency-based damage detection techniques. The numerical results show that the damaged element can be correctly localized and the content of damage can be identified with relatively high degree of accuracy by using the changes in frequencies.
文摘The systematic mathematical analysis of the high frequency soft-switched AC-AC converter is proposed for variable frequency induction machine load in this paper. Both PWM and square-wave modes of operation have been considered. The frequency relation and phase unbalance problem due to discrete time integral half-cycle switching has been discussed in the beginning. Then, generalized Fourier series have been derived for output voltage, output current and supply current in two modes.The analytical results help to understand tbe converter characteristics, design optimally a convertermachine system of arbitrary capacity considering the various trade-off parameters.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No 11173026the International GNSS Monitoring and Assessment System(iGMAS)of National Time Service Centre
文摘We present a new digital phase lock technology to achieve the frequency control and transformation through high precision multi-cycle group synchronization between signals without the frequency transformation circuit. In the case of digital sampling, the passing zero point of the phase of the controlled signal has the phase step characteristic, the phase step of the passing zero point is monotonic continuous with high resolution in the phase lock process, and using the border effect of digital fuzzy area, the gate can synchronize with the two signals, the quantization error is reduced. This technique is quite different from the existing methods of frequency transformation and frequency synthesis, the phase change characteristic between the periodic signals with different nominal is used. The phase change has the periodic phenomenon, and it has the high resolution step value. With the application of the physical law, the noise is reduced because of simplifying frequency transformation circuits, and the phase is locked with high precision. The regular phase change between frequency signals is only used for frequency measurement, and the change has evident randomness, but this randomness is greatly reduced in frequency control, and the certainty of the process result is clear. The experiment shows that the short term frequency stability can reach 10-12/s orders of magnitude.
基金funded by the special project of the National Science&Technology Pillar Program during the Twelfth "Five-year Plan" Period(2012BAK19B02-05-02)
文摘By the aftershock frequency estimation method based on the calculation of coseismic static Coulomb stress changes and rate-and state-dependent fault constitutive law,we calculate the frequency of "direct "aftershocks of the Wenchuan earthquake related to coseismic static Coulomb stress changes in its aftershock zone and the areas nearby.It shows that the frequency is significantly lower than the truth in the main rupture zone,especially in the southern rupture zone,due to the decrease of stress level on the rupture plane of the main shock resulting from coseismic Coulomb stress change.The study also shows that the effect of the Coulomb stress change on the duration of aftershock activity is associated with the lower limit magnitude.The duration is about 15-16 months for aftershocks above ML4.0,and close to 60 months for aftershocks above ML3.5.In this period,the ratio of the"direct"aftershocks caused by coseismic Coulomb stress change ranges between 44.7% to48.6%,which suggests that,even in the "effective"period of coseismic Coulomb stress changes,about half of the aftershocks on the main shock rupture plane are independent of coseismic Coulomb stress changes.It is pointed out that those aftershocks may be related to the afterslip or the viscoelastic relaxation,which are time dependent cases.
基金"Variations of Extremely Heavy Precipitation and Their Response to Global Climate Change",a project in Research Fund for the Science of Tropical Marine and Meteorology(200804)"On the Regional Extremely Heavy Rain in South China Under the Background of Climate Warming,a project in Special China Meteorological Administration Program for Climate Change(CCSF-09-03)Assessment Report on the Climate Change in the South China Region(CCSF-09-11)
文摘This paper comprehensively studies the spatio-temporal characteristics of the frequency of extremely heavy precipitation events over South China by using the daily precipitation data of 110 stations during 1961 to 2008 and the extremely heavy precipitation thresholds determined for different stations by REOF, trend coefficients, linear trend, Mann-Kendall test and variance analysis. The results are shown as follows. The frequency distribution of extremely heavy precipitation is high in the middle of South China and low in the Guangdong coast and western Guangxi. There are three spatial distribution types of extremely heavy precipitation in South China. The consistent anomaly distribution is the main type. Distribution reversed between the east and the west and between the south and the north is also an important type. Extremely heavy precipitation events in South China mainly occurred in the summer-half of the year. Their frequency during this time accounts for 83.7% of the total frequency. In the 1960 s and 1980 s, extremely heavy precipitation events were less frequent while having an increasing trend from the late 1980 s. Their climatological tendency rates decrease in the central and rise in the other areas of South China, and on average the mean series also shows an upward but insignificant trend at all of the stations. South China's frequency of extremely heavy precipitation events can be divided into six major areas and each of them shows a different inter-annual trend and three of the representative stations experience abrupt changes by showing remarkable increases in terms of Mann-Kendall tests.
基金supported by National Science Foundation of China(51477091)。
文摘The inertia response and primary frequency regulation capability of synchronous grids are declining owing to the increasing penetration of inverter-based resources. The fast frequency response(FFR) of inverter-based resources is an important mitigation option for maintaining grid security under the conditions of low inertia and insufficient primary frequency response capability. However, the understanding and technical characteristics of the FFR of inverter-based resources are still unclear. Aiming at solving the aforementioned problems, this paper proposes a definition for FFR based on the impact mechanism of FFR on system frequency. The performance requirements of FFR are clarified. Then, the effects of FFR on system frequency characteristics are further analyzed based on steady-state frequency deviation, the initial rate of change of frequency, and the maximum transient frequency deviation. Finally, the system requirements for FFR and its application effects are verified by simulating an actual bulk power grid, providing technical support for subsequent engineering application.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2018YFC1508001)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51709073)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China(Grant No.B220202031).
文摘Estimating the design flood under nonstationary conditions is challenging. In this study, a sample reconstruction approach was developed to transform a nonstationary series into a stationary one in a future time window (FTW). In this approach, the first-order moment (EFTW) of an extreme flood series in the FTW was used, and two possible methods of estimating EFTW values in terms of point values and confidence intervals were developed. Three schemes were proposed to analyze the uncertainty of design flood estimation in terms of sample representativeness, uncertainty from EFTW estimation, and both factors, respectively. To investigate the performance of the sample reconstruction approach, synthesis experiments were designed based on the annual peak series of the Little Sugar Creek in the United States. The results showed that the sample reconstruction approach performed well when the high-order moment of the series did not change significantly in the specified FTW. Otherwise, its performance deteriorated. In addition, the uncertainty of design flood estimation caused by sample representativeness was greater than that caused by EFTW estimation.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.51578315the Major Projects Fund of Chinese Ministry of Transport under contract No.201332849A090
文摘Natural hazards such as hurricanes may cause extensive economic losses and social disruption for civil structures and infrastructures in coastal areas, implying the importance of understanding the construction performance subjected to hurricanes and assessing the hurricane damages properly. The intensity and frequency of hurricanes have been reported to change with time due to the potential impact of climate change.In this paper, a probability-based model of hurricane damage assessment for coastal constructions is proposed taking into account the non-stationarity in hurricane intensity and frequency. The nonhomogeneous Poisson process is employed to model the non-stationarity in hurricane occurrence while the non-stationarity in hurricane intensity is reflected by the time-variant statistical parameters(e.g., mean value and/or standard deviation), with which the mean value and variation of the cumulative hurricane damage are evaluated explicitly. The Miami-Dade County, Florida, USA, is chosen to illustrate the hurricane damage assessment method proposed in this paper. The role of non-stationarity in hurricane intensity and occurrence rate due to climate change in hurricane damage is investigated using some representative changing patterns of hurricane parameters.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (60774071)the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (863 Program) (2008AA121302)+1 种基金the Major State Basic Research Development Program of China (973 Program) (2009CB724000)the State Scholarship Fund of China
文摘This paper deals with the problem of H∞ fault estimation for linear time-delay systems in finite frequency domain.First a generalized coordinate change is applied to the original system such that in the new coordinates all the time-delay terms are injected by the system's input and output.Then an observer-based H∞ fault estimator with input and output injections is proposed for fault estimation with known frequency range.With the aid of Generalized Kalman-Yakubovich-Popov lemma,sufficient conditions on the existence of the H∞ fault estimator are derived and a solution to the observer gain matrices is obtained by solving a set of linear matrix inequalities.Finally,a numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
基金State Natural Science Foundation of China (40074007) Science and Technology Key Project during the Ten-Year Plan(2001BA601B02-03-06) and the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province (Y2000E08).
文摘Based on the characteristics of gradual change style seismic signal onset which has more high frequency signal components but less magnitude, this paper selects Gauss linear frequency modulation wavelet as base function to study the change characteristics of Gauss linear frequency modulation wavelet transform with difference wavelet and signal parameters, analyzes the error origin of seismic phases identification on the basis of Gauss linear frequency modulation wavelet transform, puts forward a kind of new method identifying gradual change style seismic phases with background noise which is called fixed scale wavelet transform ratio, and presents application examples about simulation digital signal and actual seismic phases recording onsets identification.
文摘Annual maximum rainfall intensity for several duration and return periods has been analyzed according to the Gumbel distribution. The Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves before and after 1980 have been computed and compared. For the city of Toronto, it is shown that the rainfall intensities after 1980 are lower than those from before this date. This is especially clear for those of short duration. Comparing our results with those of other authors, it appears that, for the moment, no general law on the impact of global warming on the curves intensity duration frequency cannot be made. It appears that the impact of global warming on rainfall varies with geographic location and that it is not possible to draw some general conclusions across the planet.
文摘Based on the Gauss linear frequency modulated wavelet transform, a new characteristic index is presented, namely time frequency energy attenuation factor which can reflect the difference features of waveform in earthquake focus mechanism, wave traveling path and its attenuation characteristics in focal area or near field. In order to test its validity, we select the natural earthquakes and explosion or collapse events whose focus mechanisms vary obviously,and some natural earthquakes located at the same site or in a very small area. The study indicates that the time frequency energy attenuation factors of the natural earthquakes are obviously different with that of explosion or collapse events, and the change of the time frequency energy attenuation factors is relatively stable for the earthquakes under the normal seismicity background. Using the above mentioned method, it is expected to offer a useful criterion for strong earthquake prediction by continuous earthquake observation.
文摘The influence of low-frequency sonolysis on the kinetics bimolecular liquid-phase reactions was studied with due regard for the association (dimers and trimers) of starting reagents. The mathematical modeling of chemical reactions that were described by nonlinear differential equations is performed. The steady states, the singular points characteristics, the nature of concentration oscillations in the reaction system are described. With increasing frequency and amplitude of low-frequency sonic waves (up to some critical value), we observed the cessation of the reaction. This observation offers an additional tool for controlling reaction rate by the external action of low-frequency vibrations. The conclusions of the work are obtained under certain assumptions. The exact determination of the critical conditions for changes in dynamics is beyond the scope of the problem.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (91644226)the National Key Research Project of China (2016YFA0602004)Industry of National Public Welfare (Meteorological) Scientific Research (GYHY201206004)
文摘Based on daily precipitation data from 163 meteorological stations, this study investigated precipitation changes in the mid-latitudes of the Chinese mainland(MCM) during 1960–2014 using the climatic trend coefficient, least-squared regression analysis, and a non-parametric Mann-Kendall test.According to the effects of the East Asian summer monsoon on the MCM and the climatic trend coefficient of annual precipitation during 1960–2014, we divided the MCM into the western MCM and eastern MCM. The western MCM was further divided into the western MCM1 and western MCM2 in terms of the effects of the East Asian summer monsoon. The main results were as follows:(1) During the last four decades of the 20^(th) century, the area-averaged annual precipitation presented a significant increasing trend in the western MCM, but there was a slight decreasing trend in the eastern MCM, where a seesaw pattern was apparent. However, in the 21^(st) century, the area-averaged annual precipitation displayed a significant increasing trend in both the western and eastern MCM.(2) The trend in area-averaged seasonal precipitation during 1960–2014 in the western MCM was consistent with that in the eastern MCM in winter and spring. However, the trend in area-averaged summer precipitation during1960–2014 displayed a seesaw pattern between the western and eastern MCM.(3) On an annual basis,both the trend in rainstorms and heavy rain displayed a seesaw pattern between the western and eastern MCM.(4) The precipitation intensity in rainstorms, heavy rain, and moderate rain made a greater contribution to changes in the total precipitation than precipitation frequency. The results of this study will improve our understanding of the trends and differences in precipitation changes in different areas of the MCM. This is not only useful for the management and mitigation of flood disasters, but is also beneficial to the protection of water resources across the MCM.
文摘Impact and adaptation assessments of climate change often require more detailed information of future extreme rainfall events at higher resolution in space and/or time, which is usually, projected using the Global Climate Model (GCM) for different emissions of greenhouse concentration. In this paper, future rainfall in the North West region of England has been generated from the outputs of the HadCM3 Global Climate Model through downscaling , employing a hybrid Generalised Linear Model (GLM) together with an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Using two emission scenarios (A1FI and B1), the hybrid downscaling model was proven to have the capability to successfully simulate future rainfall. A combined peaks-over-threshold (POT)-Generalised Pareto Distribution approach was then used to model the extreme rainfall and then assess changes to seasonal trends over the region at a daily scale until the end of the 21st century. In general, extreme rainfall is predicted to be more frequent in winter seasons for both high (A1FI) and low (B1) scenarios, however for summer seasons, the region is predicted to experience some increase in extreme rainfall under the high scenario and a drop under the low scenario. The variation in intensity of extreme rainfall was found to be based on location,season, future period, return period as well as the emission scenario used.
基金This paper is financially supported by the National Natural ScienceFoundation of China (No .40172014)the Chinese Academy of Sciences(No . KZCX3-SW-143)the Ministry of Science and Technology ofChina (No .2002CB412602) .
文摘The platform-facies carbonate rocks of the Carboniferous-Permian boundary strata are well developed and outcropped in Xikou (西口), Zhen'an (镇安) County, Shaanxi ( 陕西 ) Province, China. The carbonate diagencsis in the Carboniferous-Permian boundary section at Xikou contains many processes with conspicuous effects, including micritization, cementation, mechanical and chemical compaction, neomorphism, and dissolution. Based on mineralogical composition and microfabrics, the diagenetic environments are distinguished into marine, near surface meteoric and burial environments. Detailed petrographical observation of abundant thin sections integrated with previous studies on sequence stratigraphy reveals that the carbonate diagenesis in the Carboniferous-Permian boundary section is related to the relative stratigraphic position of the rocks in the high-frequency cycles and controlled by the glacioeustatic sea-level changes. There are distinctive differences in diagenetic patterns between the lower transgressive sequence and the upper regressive sequence in a cyclothem. The diagenesis in the lower transgressive sequence is mainly characterized by pressure dissolution and recrystallization of mudstone and wackstone in a burial environment, and the diagenesis in the upper regressive sequence by cementation and leaching of freshwater in a meteoric environment.
文摘The present work aims to assess the likely effects of climate change on the length of growing period (LGP) of crops in Marina Baixa (SE, Spain). LGP can be assessed by a balance between preci- pitation and reference evapotranspiration. Less rainfall and an increased evapotranspiration, forecast by Global Climate Models (GCMs), are considered as a high risk for agriculture. This area is located in a semiarid climate region where water is a very limited resource. It is a typical example of areas where the agricultural sector has to compete for water with the tourism industry. In this context, by using observed and projected precipitation data set (model HadCM3, Scenario A2), calculating reference evapotranspiration (ETo), and applying the frequency analysis of a probability-type method, we estimated the growing period length in the observed period (1961-1990) and three 30-year future periods (2011-40, 2041-70 and 2071-99) in the study area. The results show a drop in annual precipitations (-?30%) and an increased ETo (+18%) towards the end of this century with respect to the observed period (mean annual rainfall: 356 mm;mean ETo: 1476 mm). The results also show a decrease in the number of decades (10 days) when precipitation exceeds half of the ETo, which means shorter growing periods as the 21st century advances. This expected reduction in growing period length towards the end of the present century will imply that many rainfed crops, like olives, almonds and cereals, will require a higher irrigation water supply to maintain suitable growth and performance levels. The results are an early warning to manage water resources in Marina Baixa in a sustainable way.
基金This work was supported by the National Nature Science Foundation of China(awards 42,271,162,41,971,100)the Natural Science Foundation of Jilin Province(award 20220101149JC)the Scholarship Fund from China Scholarship Council(award 202,206,620,038).
文摘Ongoing climate changes have a direct impact on forest growth;they also affect natural fire regimes,with further implications for forest composition.Understanding of how these will affect forests on decadal-to-centennial timescales is limited.Here we use reconstructions of past vegetation,fire regimes and climate during the Holocene to examine the relative importance of changes in climate and fire regimes for the abundance of key tree species in northeastern China.We reconstructed vegetation changes and fire regimes based on pollen and charcoal records from Gushantun peatland.We then used generalized linear modelling to investigate the impact of reconstructed changes in summer temperature,annual precipitation,background levels of fire,fire frequency and fire magnitude to identify the drivers of decadal-to-centennial changes in forest openness and composition.Changes in climate and fire regimes have independent impacts on the abundance of the key tree taxa.Climate variables are generally more important than fire variables in determining the abundance of individual taxa.Precipitation is the only determinant of forest openness,but summer temperature is more important than precipitation for individual tree taxa with warmer summers causing a decrease in cold-tolerant conifers and an increase in warmth-demanding broadleaved trees.Both background level and fire frequency have negative relationships with the abundance of most tree taxa;only Pinus increases as fire frequency increases.The magnitude of individual fires does not have a significant impact on species abundance on this timescale.Both climate and fire regime characteristics must be considered to understand changes in forest composition on the decadal-to-centennial timescale.There are differences,both in sign and magnitude,in the response of individual tree species to individual drivers.
文摘新能源渗透率的提高增加了电网频率控制的复杂度,储能辅助电网调频能在一定程度上缓解该问题,但受储能运行的安全性与经济性约束,要求调频措施更具针对性。文中对此展开研究,提出一种基于频率响应特性的储能辅助电网一次调频方法。首先,在储能辅助电网调频模型基础上,选择惯性加下垂的储能辅助电网调频综合控制方法,通过电网频率变化率(rate of change of frequency,RoCoF)、频率偏差与调频需求的关联性分析,设计基于频率响应特性的调频需求分区规则;然后,根据不同调频需求对应的分区判断,对储能有功输出方式进行动态调整,以响应调频需求的不确定性,并在此基础上,针对调频需求与储能出力需求、储能出力强弱与其循环使用寿命间的矛盾关系,通过多目标优化问题的设计与求解来予以平衡;最后,仿真结果验证了所提方法能够在保证电网调频效果的基础上,有效降低储能充放电深度。