Short-term(up to 30 days)predictions of Earth Rotation Parameters(ERPs)such as Polar Motion(PM:PMX and PMY)play an essential role in real-time applications related to high-precision reference frame conversion.Currentl...Short-term(up to 30 days)predictions of Earth Rotation Parameters(ERPs)such as Polar Motion(PM:PMX and PMY)play an essential role in real-time applications related to high-precision reference frame conversion.Currently,least squares(LS)+auto-regressive(AR)hybrid method is one of the main techniques of PM prediction.Besides,the weighted LS+AR hybrid method performs well for PM short-term prediction.However,the corresponding covariance information of LS fitting residuals deserves further exploration in the AR model.In this study,we have derived a modified stochastic model for the LS+AR hybrid method,namely the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method.By using the PM data products of IERS EOP 14 C04,the numerical results indicate that for PM short-term forecasting,the proposed weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows an advantage over both the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method.Compared to the mean absolute errors(MAEs)of PMX/PMY sho rt-term prediction of the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method,the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows average improvements of 6.61%/12.08%and 0.24%/11.65%,respectively.Besides,for the slopes of the linear regression lines fitted to the errors of each method,the growth of the prediction error of the proposed method is slower than that of the other two methods.展开更多
Within the context of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)and the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor(CMEC),the Dulong-Ir-rawaddy(Ayeyarwady)River,an international river among China,India and Myanmar,plays a significant role...Within the context of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)and the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor(CMEC),the Dulong-Ir-rawaddy(Ayeyarwady)River,an international river among China,India and Myanmar,plays a significant role as both a valuable hydro-power resource and an essential ecological passageway.However,the water resources and security exhibit a high degree of vulnerabil-ity to climate change impacts.This research evaluates climate impacts on the hydrology of the Dulong-Irrawaddy River Basin(DIRB)by using a physical-based hydrologic model.We crafted future climate scenarios using the three latest global climate models(GCMs)from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6(CMIP6)under two shared socioeconomic pathways(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5)for the near(2025-2049),mid(2050-2074),and far future(2075-2099).The regional model using MIKE SHE based on historical hydrologic processes was developed to further project future streamflow,demonstrating reliable performance in streamflow simulations with a val-idation Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency(NSE)of 0.72.Results showed that climate change projections showed increases in the annual precip-itation and potential evapotranspiration(PET),with precipitation increasing by 11.3%and 26.1%,and PET increasing by 3.2%and 4.9%,respectively,by the end of the century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5.These changes are projected to result in increased annual streamflow at all stations,notably at the basin’s outlet(Pyay station)compared to the baseline period(with an increase of 16.1%and 37.0%at the end of the 21st century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively).Seasonal analysis for Pyay station forecasts an in-crease in dry-season streamflow by 31.3%-48.9%and 22.5%-76.3%under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively,and an increase in wet-season streamflow by 5.8%-12.6%and 2.8%-33.3%,respectively.Moreover,the magnitude and frequency of flood events are pre-dicted to escalate,potentially impacting hydropower production and food security significantly.This research outlines the hydrological response to future climate change during the 21st century and offers a scientific basis for the water resource management strategies by decision-makers.展开更多
The study addresses the integration of the Building Information Modelling (BIM) methodology with Virtual Reality (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR) technologies in the context of the development of a multidisciplinary pr...The study addresses the integration of the Building Information Modelling (BIM) methodology with Virtual Reality (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR) technologies in the context of the development of a multidisciplinary project, involving architecture, structures, water network and electrical system components. In order to cover in detail the various design features, the case study was limited to a specific area of a house, the sanitary rooms, as it presents sufficient complexity in modeling and the application of VR and AR software. The VR/AR functionalities applied over the BIM model increase the potential of BIM in the construction sector, contributing to the achievement of a high level of collaboration and control of the project based on an immersive and interactive environment. The elaboration of the different phases of a BIM design requires the transfer of models between BIM and VR/AR systems, allowing us to analyze the main advantages that BIM/VR/AR integration can introduce in the construction industry. The study contributes positively to achieving new knowledge in BIM, being disseminated in an academic research work and illustrated in a practical context.展开更多
Binomial N-mixture models are commonly applied to estimate abundance unaffected by imperfect detection,but are known to be sensitive to violations of assumptions.One of the model’s assumptions,the independence of det...Binomial N-mixture models are commonly applied to estimate abundance unaffected by imperfect detection,but are known to be sensitive to violations of assumptions.One of the model’s assumptions,the independence of detections has rarely been tested.It requires that during a survey,detection of one individual does not affect detection of another individual.This assumption can be frequently violated in passerine birds,which exhibit territorial behaviour by singing,since neighbouring individuals are likely to motivate each other to vocalize,leading to non-independence in singing activity and in the following detection rate.Here,we explored this phenomenon with the generalized,binomial version of the N-mixture model,where detection probability is decomposed into availability probability φ-which can be interpreted as per capita song rate or the probability of vocalising-and actual detection probability p,given vocalisations take place.Using repeated counts of the Collared Flycatcher(Ficedula albicollis)as a case study,and treating the maximum observed counts C_(maxi) at a site i as an explanatory covariate for φ,we showed that per capita song rates increased with observed counts at a site.Hence,if song rates vary due to local abundance,including C_(maxi)as an explanatory variable for song rate addressed with φ,helps to explain this variation(which otherwise goes undetected)and improves inferences under the model.This had strong effects on the resulting abundance estimates:if this relationship was ignored in the models,total estimated population sizes were consequently lower by as much as 22-27%,compared to when this effect was included.Since it is likely that song rates may commonly be density-dependent in birds manifesting territorial behaviours by singing,further tests addressing violations of independence assumptions in these models are needed.As suggested by Kery and Royle(2016),despite some form of circularity likely being involved,modelling heterogeneity in the detection process with the help of C_(maxi)in standard N-mixture models(which,given availability,conflate availability with detection in a single parameter)should be applicable as well.展开更多
为改善传统N-Calculator模型的局限性,加强食物氮足迹核算结果与环境影响的联系,提高活性氮管理预见性,将N-Calculator模型与食物系统养分流动(Nutrient Flows in Food Chains,Environment and Resources Use,NUFER)模型进行耦合,以估...为改善传统N-Calculator模型的局限性,加强食物氮足迹核算结果与环境影响的联系,提高活性氮管理预见性,将N-Calculator模型与食物系统养分流动(Nutrient Flows in Food Chains,Environment and Resources Use,NUFER)模型进行耦合,以估算我国2001—2020年人均食物氮足迹,建立组合预测体系。结果显示:2001—2020年,我国人均食物氮足迹由16.04 kg N/a增至18.95 kg N/a;全国食物氮足迹由20.47 Mt N/a增至26.76 Mt N/a;居民饮食结构正由以植物源食物为主的低氮消费模式转向以动物源食物为主的高氮消费模式;食物生产过程产生的活性氮的最终归宿为大气(64.3%)、水体和深层土壤(35.7%);我国食物氮足迹与人均可支配收入、城市化率、动物源食物消费氮占比呈正相关性,与恩格尔系数呈负相关性;未来10 a我国人均食物氮足迹呈增长趋势,预测结果显示年均增幅为0.16 kg N/a。展开更多
针对半球共形阵体制下进行低空风切变检测时会受到强地杂波信号的干扰,导致风切变信号难以检测的问题,提出了一种基于空时自回归的直接数据域算法(Space-Time Autoregressive Direct Data Domain,D3AR)的低空风切变风速估计方法。该方...针对半球共形阵体制下进行低空风切变检测时会受到强地杂波信号的干扰,导致风切变信号难以检测的问题,提出了一种基于空时自回归的直接数据域算法(Space-Time Autoregressive Direct Data Domain,D3AR)的低空风切变风速估计方法。该方法首先将待检测距离单元的数据从空域、时域以及空时域进行信号对消处理;然后将处理后的数据矩阵描述为空时自回归(Autoregression,AR)模型并估计模型参数;再通过构造与杂波子空间正交的空间来实现对杂波的抑制,最后通过提取待检测单元的最大多普勒频率来估计风场速度。根据仿真结果显示,该方法有效地实现了地杂波抑制,并且能够精确估计风速。展开更多
考虑电池单体老化差异所致的电池组不一致性,针对串联电池组荷电状态(state of charge,SOC)、容量估计问题,提出一种基于自回归等效电路模型(autoregression equivalent circuit model,AR-ECM)的平均差异模型(mean-difference model,MDM...考虑电池单体老化差异所致的电池组不一致性,针对串联电池组荷电状态(state of charge,SOC)、容量估计问题,提出一种基于自回归等效电路模型(autoregression equivalent circuit model,AR-ECM)的平均差异模型(mean-difference model,MDM)。基于此模型,提出串联电池组SOC、容量多尺度联合估计算法。该算法由2个部分组成,一是基于AR-ECM的MDM及差异化模型参数辨识策略:条件辨识策略和定频分组辨识策略;二是基于多时间尺度H无穷滤波(multi-timescale H infinity filter,Mts-HIF)的电池组SOC、容量联合估计算法。通过将所提出MDM中的自回归平均模型(autoregression mean model,AR-MM)与传统MDM中的n阶RC平均模型(nRC mean model,nRC-MM)比较,结果表明所提出的AR-MM在复杂运行工况下具有更优的动态跟随性能。依据最小化信息量准则(akaike information criterion,AIC),AR-MM具有更优的复杂度与精度的权衡。通过与基于多时间尺度扩展卡尔曼滤波(multi-timescale extended Kalman filter,Mts-EKF)联合状态估计算法比较,结果表明所提出的Mts-HIF状态估计算法具有更优的鲁棒性、精度和收敛速度。展开更多
Crop models can be useful tools ibr optimizing fertilizer management for a targeted crop yield while minimizing nutrient losses. In this paper, the parameters of the decision support system for agrotechnology transfer...Crop models can be useful tools ibr optimizing fertilizer management for a targeted crop yield while minimizing nutrient losses. In this paper, the parameters of the decision support system for agrotechnology transfer (DSSAT)-CERES-Maize were optimized using a new method to provide a better simulation of maize (Zea mays L.) growth and N upfake in response to different nitrogen application rates. Field data were collected from a 5 yr field experiment (2006-2010) on a Black soil (Typic hapludoll) in Gongzhuling, Jilin Province, Northeast China. After cultivar calibration, the CERES-Maize model was able to simulate aboveground biomass and crop yield of in the evaluation data set (n-RMSE=5.0-14.6%), but the model still over-estimated aboveground N uptake (i.e., with E values from -4.4 to -21.3 kg N ha-~). By analyzing DSSAT equation, N stress coefficient for changes in concentration with growth stage (CTCNP2) is related to N uptake. Further sensitivity analysis of the CTCNP2 showed that the DSSAT model simulated maize nitrogen uptake more precisely after the CTCNP2 coefficient was adjusted to the field site condition. The results indicated that in addition to calibrating 6 coefficients of maize cultivars, radiation use efficiency (RUE), growing degree days for emergence (GDDE), N stress coefficient, CTCNP2, and soil fertility factor (SLPF) also need to be calibrated in order to simulate aboveground biomass, yield and N uptake correctly. Independent validation was conducted using 2008-2010 experiments and the good agreement between the simulated and the measured results indicates that the DSSAT CERES-Maize model could be a useful tool for predicting maize production in Northeast China.展开更多
The field experiments were carried out to investigate the dynamics and models of N, P and K absorption for the cotton plants with a lint of 3 000 kg ha-1 in Xinjiang. The main results were as follows: The contents of ...The field experiments were carried out to investigate the dynamics and models of N, P and K absorption for the cotton plants with a lint of 3 000 kg ha-1 in Xinjiang. The main results were as follows: The contents of N, P2O5, K2O in cotton leaves, stems, squares and bolls decreased obviously with the time over the whole growth duration and the falling extent was greater in high-yield cotton than in CK. Contents of N in leaves, squares and bolls, in particular in the leaves of fruit-bearing shoot was higher in high-yield cotton than in CK. Contents of P2O5 in squares and bolls and that of K2O in stems were higher in high-yield cotton than in CK during the whole growing period. The accumulations of N, P2O5 and K2O in the cotton plants could be described with a logistic curve equation. There was the fastest nutrient uptake at about 90 d for N, 92 d for P2O5 and 85 d for K2O after emergence, respectively. Total nutrient accumulation of N, P2O5 and K2O was 385.8, 244. 7 and 340.3 kg ha-1, respectively. Approximately 12. 5 kg N, 8. 0 kg P2O5 and 11.1 kg K2O were needed for producing 100 kg lint with the leaves and stems under the super high yield condition of 3 000 kg ha-1 in Xinjiang.展开更多
The identification of the inter-electrode gap size in the high frequency group pulse micro-electrochemical machining (HGPECM) is mainly discussed. The auto-regressive(AR) model of group pulse current flowing acros...The identification of the inter-electrode gap size in the high frequency group pulse micro-electrochemical machining (HGPECM) is mainly discussed. The auto-regressive(AR) model of group pulse current flowing across the cathode and the anode are created under different situations with different processing parameters and inter-electrode gap size. The AR model based on the current signals indicates that the order of the AR model is obviously different relating to the different processing conditions and the inter-electrode gap size; Moreover, it is different about the stability of the dynamic system, i.e. the white noise response of the Green's function of the dynamic system is diverse. In addition, power spectrum method is used in the analysis of the dynamic time series about the current signals with different inter-electrode gap size, the results show that there exists a strongest power spectrum peak, characteristic power spectrum(CPS), to the current signals related to the different inter-electrode gap size in the range of 0~5 kHz. Therefore, the CPS of current signals can implement the identification of the inter-electrode gap.展开更多
Based on the weekly closing price of Shenzhen Integrated Index, this article studies the volatility of Shenzhen Stock Market using three different models: Logistic, AR(1) and AR(2). The time-variable parameters o...Based on the weekly closing price of Shenzhen Integrated Index, this article studies the volatility of Shenzhen Stock Market using three different models: Logistic, AR(1) and AR(2). The time-variable parameters of Logistic regression model is estimated by using both the index smoothing method and the time-variable parameter estimation method. And both the AR(1) model and the AR(2) model of zero-mean series of the weekly dosing price and its zero-mean series of volatility rate are established based on the analysis results of zero-mean series of the weekly closing price, Six common statistical methods for error prediction are used to test the predicting results. These methods are: mean error (ME), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), Akaike's information criterion (AIC), and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). The investigation shows that AR(1) model exhibits the best predicting result, whereas AR(2) model exhibits predicting results that is intermediate between AR(1) model and the Logistic regression model.展开更多
In this article we study the empirical likelihood inference for AR(p) model. We propose the moment restrictions, by which we get the empirical likelihood estimator of the model parametric, and we also propose an emp...In this article we study the empirical likelihood inference for AR(p) model. We propose the moment restrictions, by which we get the empirical likelihood estimator of the model parametric, and we also propose an empirical log-likelihood ratio base on this estimator. Our result shows that the EL estimator is asymptotically normal, and the empirical log-likelihood ratio is proved to be asymptotically standard chi-squared.展开更多
Radio frequency capacitively coupled plasmas(RF CCPs)play a pivotal role in various applications in etching and deposition processes on a microscopic scale in semiconductor manufacturing.In the discharge process,the p...Radio frequency capacitively coupled plasmas(RF CCPs)play a pivotal role in various applications in etching and deposition processes on a microscopic scale in semiconductor manufacturing.In the discharge process,the plasma series resonance(PSR)effect is easily observed in electrically asymmetric and geometrically asymmetric discharges,which could largely influence the power absorption,ionization rate,etc.In this work,the PSR effect arising from geometrically and electrically asymmetric discharge in argon-oxygen mixture gas is mainly investigated by using a plasma equivalent circuit model coupled with a global model.At relatively low pressures,as Ar content(α)increases,the inductance of the bulk is weakened,which leads to a more obvious PSR phenomenon and a higher resonance frequency(ω_(psr)).When the Ar content is fixed,varying the pressure and gap distance could also have different effects on the PSR effect.With the increase of the pressure,the PSR frequency shifts towards the higher order,but in the case of much higher pressure,the PSR oscillation would be strongly damped by frequent electron-neutral collisions.With the increase of the gap distance,the PSR frequency becomes lower.In addition,electrically asymmetric waveforms applied to a geometrically asymmetric chamber may weaken or enhance the asymmetry of the discharge and regulate the PSR effect.In this work,the Ar/O_(2) electronegative mixture gas is introduced in a capacitive discharge to study the PSR effect under geometric asymmetry effect and electrical asymmetry effect,which can provide necessary guidance in laboratory research and current applications.展开更多
We investigate the area distribution of clusters (loops) in the honeycomb O(n) loop model by means of the worm algorithm with n = 0.5, 1, 1.5, and 2. At the critical point, the number of clusters, whose enclosed a...We investigate the area distribution of clusters (loops) in the honeycomb O(n) loop model by means of the worm algorithm with n = 0.5, 1, 1.5, and 2. At the critical point, the number of clusters, whose enclosed area is greater than A, is proportional to A-1 with a proportionality constant C. We confirm numerically that C is universal, and its value agrees well with the predictions based on the Coulomb gas method.展开更多
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China,China(No.42004016)HuBei Natural Science Fund,China(No.2020CFB329)+1 种基金HuNan Natural Science Fund,China(No.2023JJ60559,2023JJ60560)the State Key Laboratory of Geodesy and Earth’s Dynamics self-deployment project,China(No.S21L6101)。
文摘Short-term(up to 30 days)predictions of Earth Rotation Parameters(ERPs)such as Polar Motion(PM:PMX and PMY)play an essential role in real-time applications related to high-precision reference frame conversion.Currently,least squares(LS)+auto-regressive(AR)hybrid method is one of the main techniques of PM prediction.Besides,the weighted LS+AR hybrid method performs well for PM short-term prediction.However,the corresponding covariance information of LS fitting residuals deserves further exploration in the AR model.In this study,we have derived a modified stochastic model for the LS+AR hybrid method,namely the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method.By using the PM data products of IERS EOP 14 C04,the numerical results indicate that for PM short-term forecasting,the proposed weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows an advantage over both the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method.Compared to the mean absolute errors(MAEs)of PMX/PMY sho rt-term prediction of the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method,the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows average improvements of 6.61%/12.08%and 0.24%/11.65%,respectively.Besides,for the slopes of the linear regression lines fitted to the errors of each method,the growth of the prediction error of the proposed method is slower than that of the other two methods.
基金Under the auspices of the Yunnan Scientist Workstation on International River Research of Daming He(No.KXJGZS-2019-005)National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42201040)+1 种基金National Key Research and Development Project of China(No.2016YFA0601601)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2023M733006)。
文摘Within the context of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)and the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor(CMEC),the Dulong-Ir-rawaddy(Ayeyarwady)River,an international river among China,India and Myanmar,plays a significant role as both a valuable hydro-power resource and an essential ecological passageway.However,the water resources and security exhibit a high degree of vulnerabil-ity to climate change impacts.This research evaluates climate impacts on the hydrology of the Dulong-Irrawaddy River Basin(DIRB)by using a physical-based hydrologic model.We crafted future climate scenarios using the three latest global climate models(GCMs)from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6(CMIP6)under two shared socioeconomic pathways(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5)for the near(2025-2049),mid(2050-2074),and far future(2075-2099).The regional model using MIKE SHE based on historical hydrologic processes was developed to further project future streamflow,demonstrating reliable performance in streamflow simulations with a val-idation Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency(NSE)of 0.72.Results showed that climate change projections showed increases in the annual precip-itation and potential evapotranspiration(PET),with precipitation increasing by 11.3%and 26.1%,and PET increasing by 3.2%and 4.9%,respectively,by the end of the century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5.These changes are projected to result in increased annual streamflow at all stations,notably at the basin’s outlet(Pyay station)compared to the baseline period(with an increase of 16.1%and 37.0%at the end of the 21st century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively).Seasonal analysis for Pyay station forecasts an in-crease in dry-season streamflow by 31.3%-48.9%and 22.5%-76.3%under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively,and an increase in wet-season streamflow by 5.8%-12.6%and 2.8%-33.3%,respectively.Moreover,the magnitude and frequency of flood events are pre-dicted to escalate,potentially impacting hydropower production and food security significantly.This research outlines the hydrological response to future climate change during the 21st century and offers a scientific basis for the water resource management strategies by decision-makers.
文摘The study addresses the integration of the Building Information Modelling (BIM) methodology with Virtual Reality (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR) technologies in the context of the development of a multidisciplinary project, involving architecture, structures, water network and electrical system components. In order to cover in detail the various design features, the case study was limited to a specific area of a house, the sanitary rooms, as it presents sufficient complexity in modeling and the application of VR and AR software. The VR/AR functionalities applied over the BIM model increase the potential of BIM in the construction sector, contributing to the achievement of a high level of collaboration and control of the project based on an immersive and interactive environment. The elaboration of the different phases of a BIM design requires the transfer of models between BIM and VR/AR systems, allowing us to analyze the main advantages that BIM/VR/AR integration can introduce in the construction industry. The study contributes positively to achieving new knowledge in BIM, being disseminated in an academic research work and illustrated in a practical context.
基金funded by the General Directorate for Environmental Protection,Poland,within the inventory of birds in the SPA Natura 2000 Napiwodzko-Ramucka Forest。
文摘Binomial N-mixture models are commonly applied to estimate abundance unaffected by imperfect detection,but are known to be sensitive to violations of assumptions.One of the model’s assumptions,the independence of detections has rarely been tested.It requires that during a survey,detection of one individual does not affect detection of another individual.This assumption can be frequently violated in passerine birds,which exhibit territorial behaviour by singing,since neighbouring individuals are likely to motivate each other to vocalize,leading to non-independence in singing activity and in the following detection rate.Here,we explored this phenomenon with the generalized,binomial version of the N-mixture model,where detection probability is decomposed into availability probability φ-which can be interpreted as per capita song rate or the probability of vocalising-and actual detection probability p,given vocalisations take place.Using repeated counts of the Collared Flycatcher(Ficedula albicollis)as a case study,and treating the maximum observed counts C_(maxi) at a site i as an explanatory covariate for φ,we showed that per capita song rates increased with observed counts at a site.Hence,if song rates vary due to local abundance,including C_(maxi)as an explanatory variable for song rate addressed with φ,helps to explain this variation(which otherwise goes undetected)and improves inferences under the model.This had strong effects on the resulting abundance estimates:if this relationship was ignored in the models,total estimated population sizes were consequently lower by as much as 22-27%,compared to when this effect was included.Since it is likely that song rates may commonly be density-dependent in birds manifesting territorial behaviours by singing,further tests addressing violations of independence assumptions in these models are needed.As suggested by Kery and Royle(2016),despite some form of circularity likely being involved,modelling heterogeneity in the detection process with the help of C_(maxi)in standard N-mixture models(which,given availability,conflate availability with detection in a single parameter)should be applicable as well.
文摘为改善传统N-Calculator模型的局限性,加强食物氮足迹核算结果与环境影响的联系,提高活性氮管理预见性,将N-Calculator模型与食物系统养分流动(Nutrient Flows in Food Chains,Environment and Resources Use,NUFER)模型进行耦合,以估算我国2001—2020年人均食物氮足迹,建立组合预测体系。结果显示:2001—2020年,我国人均食物氮足迹由16.04 kg N/a增至18.95 kg N/a;全国食物氮足迹由20.47 Mt N/a增至26.76 Mt N/a;居民饮食结构正由以植物源食物为主的低氮消费模式转向以动物源食物为主的高氮消费模式;食物生产过程产生的活性氮的最终归宿为大气(64.3%)、水体和深层土壤(35.7%);我国食物氮足迹与人均可支配收入、城市化率、动物源食物消费氮占比呈正相关性,与恩格尔系数呈负相关性;未来10 a我国人均食物氮足迹呈增长趋势,预测结果显示年均增幅为0.16 kg N/a。
文摘针对半球共形阵体制下进行低空风切变检测时会受到强地杂波信号的干扰,导致风切变信号难以检测的问题,提出了一种基于空时自回归的直接数据域算法(Space-Time Autoregressive Direct Data Domain,D3AR)的低空风切变风速估计方法。该方法首先将待检测距离单元的数据从空域、时域以及空时域进行信号对消处理;然后将处理后的数据矩阵描述为空时自回归(Autoregression,AR)模型并估计模型参数;再通过构造与杂波子空间正交的空间来实现对杂波的抑制,最后通过提取待检测单元的最大多普勒频率来估计风场速度。根据仿真结果显示,该方法有效地实现了地杂波抑制,并且能够精确估计风速。
文摘考虑电池单体老化差异所致的电池组不一致性,针对串联电池组荷电状态(state of charge,SOC)、容量估计问题,提出一种基于自回归等效电路模型(autoregression equivalent circuit model,AR-ECM)的平均差异模型(mean-difference model,MDM)。基于此模型,提出串联电池组SOC、容量多尺度联合估计算法。该算法由2个部分组成,一是基于AR-ECM的MDM及差异化模型参数辨识策略:条件辨识策略和定频分组辨识策略;二是基于多时间尺度H无穷滤波(multi-timescale H infinity filter,Mts-HIF)的电池组SOC、容量联合估计算法。通过将所提出MDM中的自回归平均模型(autoregression mean model,AR-MM)与传统MDM中的n阶RC平均模型(nRC mean model,nRC-MM)比较,结果表明所提出的AR-MM在复杂运行工况下具有更优的动态跟随性能。依据最小化信息量准则(akaike information criterion,AIC),AR-MM具有更优的复杂度与精度的权衡。通过与基于多时间尺度扩展卡尔曼滤波(multi-timescale extended Kalman filter,Mts-EKF)联合状态估计算法比较,结果表明所提出的Mts-HIF状态估计算法具有更优的鲁棒性、精度和收敛速度。
基金funded by the National Basic Research Program of China (2007CB109306 and 2013CB127405)The authors acknowledge Ministry of Education,China,for providing the scholarship (2008325008)
文摘Crop models can be useful tools ibr optimizing fertilizer management for a targeted crop yield while minimizing nutrient losses. In this paper, the parameters of the decision support system for agrotechnology transfer (DSSAT)-CERES-Maize were optimized using a new method to provide a better simulation of maize (Zea mays L.) growth and N upfake in response to different nitrogen application rates. Field data were collected from a 5 yr field experiment (2006-2010) on a Black soil (Typic hapludoll) in Gongzhuling, Jilin Province, Northeast China. After cultivar calibration, the CERES-Maize model was able to simulate aboveground biomass and crop yield of in the evaluation data set (n-RMSE=5.0-14.6%), but the model still over-estimated aboveground N uptake (i.e., with E values from -4.4 to -21.3 kg N ha-~). By analyzing DSSAT equation, N stress coefficient for changes in concentration with growth stage (CTCNP2) is related to N uptake. Further sensitivity analysis of the CTCNP2 showed that the DSSAT model simulated maize nitrogen uptake more precisely after the CTCNP2 coefficient was adjusted to the field site condition. The results indicated that in addition to calibrating 6 coefficients of maize cultivars, radiation use efficiency (RUE), growing degree days for emergence (GDDE), N stress coefficient, CTCNP2, and soil fertility factor (SLPF) also need to be calibrated in order to simulate aboveground biomass, yield and N uptake correctly. Independent validation was conducted using 2008-2010 experiments and the good agreement between the simulated and the measured results indicates that the DSSAT CERES-Maize model could be a useful tool for predicting maize production in Northeast China.
基金supported by the National Key Technologies R&D Program in 10th Five-year Plan of China(2001BA507A)the National Natural Sicence Foundation of China(39760040).
文摘The field experiments were carried out to investigate the dynamics and models of N, P and K absorption for the cotton plants with a lint of 3 000 kg ha-1 in Xinjiang. The main results were as follows: The contents of N, P2O5, K2O in cotton leaves, stems, squares and bolls decreased obviously with the time over the whole growth duration and the falling extent was greater in high-yield cotton than in CK. Contents of N in leaves, squares and bolls, in particular in the leaves of fruit-bearing shoot was higher in high-yield cotton than in CK. Contents of P2O5 in squares and bolls and that of K2O in stems were higher in high-yield cotton than in CK during the whole growing period. The accumulations of N, P2O5 and K2O in the cotton plants could be described with a logistic curve equation. There was the fastest nutrient uptake at about 90 d for N, 92 d for P2O5 and 85 d for K2O after emergence, respectively. Total nutrient accumulation of N, P2O5 and K2O was 385.8, 244. 7 and 340.3 kg ha-1, respectively. Approximately 12. 5 kg N, 8. 0 kg P2O5 and 11.1 kg K2O were needed for producing 100 kg lint with the leaves and stems under the super high yield condition of 3 000 kg ha-1 in Xinjiang.
基金This project is supported by the 10th Five-year Plan Pre-research Project Foundation of China Weapon Industry Company, China(No.42001080701).
文摘The identification of the inter-electrode gap size in the high frequency group pulse micro-electrochemical machining (HGPECM) is mainly discussed. The auto-regressive(AR) model of group pulse current flowing across the cathode and the anode are created under different situations with different processing parameters and inter-electrode gap size. The AR model based on the current signals indicates that the order of the AR model is obviously different relating to the different processing conditions and the inter-electrode gap size; Moreover, it is different about the stability of the dynamic system, i.e. the white noise response of the Green's function of the dynamic system is diverse. In addition, power spectrum method is used in the analysis of the dynamic time series about the current signals with different inter-electrode gap size, the results show that there exists a strongest power spectrum peak, characteristic power spectrum(CPS), to the current signals related to the different inter-electrode gap size in the range of 0~5 kHz. Therefore, the CPS of current signals can implement the identification of the inter-electrode gap.
基金The research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (60574069)the Soft Science Foundation of Guangdong Province (2005B70101044)
文摘Based on the weekly closing price of Shenzhen Integrated Index, this article studies the volatility of Shenzhen Stock Market using three different models: Logistic, AR(1) and AR(2). The time-variable parameters of Logistic regression model is estimated by using both the index smoothing method and the time-variable parameter estimation method. And both the AR(1) model and the AR(2) model of zero-mean series of the weekly dosing price and its zero-mean series of volatility rate are established based on the analysis results of zero-mean series of the weekly closing price, Six common statistical methods for error prediction are used to test the predicting results. These methods are: mean error (ME), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), Akaike's information criterion (AIC), and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). The investigation shows that AR(1) model exhibits the best predicting result, whereas AR(2) model exhibits predicting results that is intermediate between AR(1) model and the Logistic regression model.
文摘In this article we study the empirical likelihood inference for AR(p) model. We propose the moment restrictions, by which we get the empirical likelihood estimator of the model parametric, and we also propose an empirical log-likelihood ratio base on this estimator. Our result shows that the EL estimator is asymptotically normal, and the empirical log-likelihood ratio is proved to be asymptotically standard chi-squared.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.12020101005 and 11975067)。
文摘Radio frequency capacitively coupled plasmas(RF CCPs)play a pivotal role in various applications in etching and deposition processes on a microscopic scale in semiconductor manufacturing.In the discharge process,the plasma series resonance(PSR)effect is easily observed in electrically asymmetric and geometrically asymmetric discharges,which could largely influence the power absorption,ionization rate,etc.In this work,the PSR effect arising from geometrically and electrically asymmetric discharge in argon-oxygen mixture gas is mainly investigated by using a plasma equivalent circuit model coupled with a global model.At relatively low pressures,as Ar content(α)increases,the inductance of the bulk is weakened,which leads to a more obvious PSR phenomenon and a higher resonance frequency(ω_(psr)).When the Ar content is fixed,varying the pressure and gap distance could also have different effects on the PSR effect.With the increase of the pressure,the PSR frequency shifts towards the higher order,but in the case of much higher pressure,the PSR oscillation would be strongly damped by frequent electron-neutral collisions.With the increase of the gap distance,the PSR frequency becomes lower.In addition,electrically asymmetric waveforms applied to a geometrically asymmetric chamber may weaken or enhance the asymmetry of the discharge and regulate the PSR effect.In this work,the Ar/O_(2) electronegative mixture gas is introduced in a capacitive discharge to study the PSR effect under geometric asymmetry effect and electrical asymmetry effect,which can provide necessary guidance in laboratory research and current applications.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 10975127)the Specialized Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education, China (Grant No. 20113402110040)
文摘We investigate the area distribution of clusters (loops) in the honeycomb O(n) loop model by means of the worm algorithm with n = 0.5, 1, 1.5, and 2. At the critical point, the number of clusters, whose enclosed area is greater than A, is proportional to A-1 with a proportionality constant C. We confirm numerically that C is universal, and its value agrees well with the predictions based on the Coulomb gas method.