Short-term(up to 30 days)predictions of Earth Rotation Parameters(ERPs)such as Polar Motion(PM:PMX and PMY)play an essential role in real-time applications related to high-precision reference frame conversion.Currentl...Short-term(up to 30 days)predictions of Earth Rotation Parameters(ERPs)such as Polar Motion(PM:PMX and PMY)play an essential role in real-time applications related to high-precision reference frame conversion.Currently,least squares(LS)+auto-regressive(AR)hybrid method is one of the main techniques of PM prediction.Besides,the weighted LS+AR hybrid method performs well for PM short-term prediction.However,the corresponding covariance information of LS fitting residuals deserves further exploration in the AR model.In this study,we have derived a modified stochastic model for the LS+AR hybrid method,namely the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method.By using the PM data products of IERS EOP 14 C04,the numerical results indicate that for PM short-term forecasting,the proposed weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows an advantage over both the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method.Compared to the mean absolute errors(MAEs)of PMX/PMY sho rt-term prediction of the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method,the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows average improvements of 6.61%/12.08%and 0.24%/11.65%,respectively.Besides,for the slopes of the linear regression lines fitted to the errors of each method,the growth of the prediction error of the proposed method is slower than that of the other two methods.展开更多
In this article we study the empirical likelihood inference for AR（p） model. We propose the moment restrictions, by which we get the empirical likelihood estimator of the model parametric, and we also propose an emp...In this article we study the empirical likelihood inference for AR（p） model. We propose the moment restrictions, by which we get the empirical likelihood estimator of the model parametric, and we also propose an empirical log-likelihood ratio base on this estimator. Our result shows that the EL estimator is asymptotically normal, and the empirical log-likelihood ratio is proved to be asymptotically standard chi-squared.展开更多
As there are lots of non-linear systems in the real engineering, it is very important to do more researches on the modeling and prediction of non-linear systems. Based on the multi-resolution analysis (MRA) of wavelet...As there are lots of non-linear systems in the real engineering, it is very important to do more researches on the modeling and prediction of non-linear systems. Based on the multi-resolution analysis (MRA) of wavelet theory, this paper combined the wavelet theory with neural network and established a MRA wavelet network with the scaling function and wavelet function as its neurons. From the analysis in the frequency domain, the results indicated that MRA wavelet network was better than other wavelet networks in the ability of approaching to the signals. An essential research was can:led out on modeling and prediction with MRA wavelet network in the non-linear system. Using the lengthwise sway data received from the experiment of ship model, a model of offline prediction was established and was applied to the short-time prediction of ship motion. The simulation results indicated that the forecasting model improved the prediction precision effectively, lengthened the forecasting time and had a better prediction results than that of AR linear model. The research indicates that it is feasible to use the MRA wavelet network in the short-time prediction of ship motion.展开更多
The Varzaghan district at the northwestern margin of the Urumieh–Dokhtar magmatic arc, is considered a promising area for the exploration of porphyry Cu deposits in Iran. In this study we identified mono-and multi-el...The Varzaghan district at the northwestern margin of the Urumieh–Dokhtar magmatic arc, is considered a promising area for the exploration of porphyry Cu deposits in Iran. In this study we identified mono-and multi-element geochemical anomalies associated with Cu–Au–Mo–Bi mineralization in the central parts of the Varzaghan district by applying the concentration–area fractal method. After mono-element geochemical investigations, principal component analysis was applied to ten selected elements in order to acquire a multi-element geochemical signature based on the mineralization-related component. Quantitative comparisons of the obtained fractal-based populations were carried out in accordance with known Cu occurrences using Student's t-values. Then,significant mono-and multi-element geochemical layers were separately combined with related geologic and structural layers to generate prospectivity models, using the fuzzy GAMMA approach. For quantitative evaluation of the effectiveness of different geochemical signatures in final prospectivity models, a prediction-area plot was adapted. The results show that the multi-element geochemical signature of principal component one(PC1) is more effective than mono-element layers in delimiting exploration targets related to porphyry Cu deposits.展开更多
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China,China(No.42004016)HuBei Natural Science Fund,China(No.2020CFB329)+1 种基金HuNan Natural Science Fund,China(No.2023JJ60559,2023JJ60560)the State Key Laboratory of Geodesy and Earth’s Dynamics self-deployment project,China(No.S21L6101)。
文摘Short-term(up to 30 days)predictions of Earth Rotation Parameters(ERPs)such as Polar Motion(PM:PMX and PMY)play an essential role in real-time applications related to high-precision reference frame conversion.Currently,least squares(LS)+auto-regressive(AR)hybrid method is one of the main techniques of PM prediction.Besides,the weighted LS+AR hybrid method performs well for PM short-term prediction.However,the corresponding covariance information of LS fitting residuals deserves further exploration in the AR model.In this study,we have derived a modified stochastic model for the LS+AR hybrid method,namely the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method.By using the PM data products of IERS EOP 14 C04,the numerical results indicate that for PM short-term forecasting,the proposed weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows an advantage over both the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method.Compared to the mean absolute errors(MAEs)of PMX/PMY sho rt-term prediction of the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method,the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows average improvements of 6.61%/12.08%and 0.24%/11.65%,respectively.Besides,for the slopes of the linear regression lines fitted to the errors of each method,the growth of the prediction error of the proposed method is slower than that of the other two methods.
文摘In this article we study the empirical likelihood inference for AR（p） model. We propose the moment restrictions, by which we get the empirical likelihood estimator of the model parametric, and we also propose an empirical log-likelihood ratio base on this estimator. Our result shows that the EL estimator is asymptotically normal, and the empirical log-likelihood ratio is proved to be asymptotically standard chi-squared.
基金Supported by the National Defence Science and Industry Committee(41314020201)
文摘As there are lots of non-linear systems in the real engineering, it is very important to do more researches on the modeling and prediction of non-linear systems. Based on the multi-resolution analysis (MRA) of wavelet theory, this paper combined the wavelet theory with neural network and established a MRA wavelet network with the scaling function and wavelet function as its neurons. From the analysis in the frequency domain, the results indicated that MRA wavelet network was better than other wavelet networks in the ability of approaching to the signals. An essential research was can:led out on modeling and prediction with MRA wavelet network in the non-linear system. Using the lengthwise sway data received from the experiment of ship model, a model of offline prediction was established and was applied to the short-time prediction of ship motion. The simulation results indicated that the forecasting model improved the prediction precision effectively, lengthened the forecasting time and had a better prediction results than that of AR linear model. The research indicates that it is feasible to use the MRA wavelet network in the short-time prediction of ship motion.
文摘The Varzaghan district at the northwestern margin of the Urumieh–Dokhtar magmatic arc, is considered a promising area for the exploration of porphyry Cu deposits in Iran. In this study we identified mono-and multi-element geochemical anomalies associated with Cu–Au–Mo–Bi mineralization in the central parts of the Varzaghan district by applying the concentration–area fractal method. After mono-element geochemical investigations, principal component analysis was applied to ten selected elements in order to acquire a multi-element geochemical signature based on the mineralization-related component. Quantitative comparisons of the obtained fractal-based populations were carried out in accordance with known Cu occurrences using Student's t-values. Then,significant mono-and multi-element geochemical layers were separately combined with related geologic and structural layers to generate prospectivity models, using the fuzzy GAMMA approach. For quantitative evaluation of the effectiveness of different geochemical signatures in final prospectivity models, a prediction-area plot was adapted. The results show that the multi-element geochemical signature of principal component one(PC1) is more effective than mono-element layers in delimiting exploration targets related to porphyry Cu deposits.
