A Workable Solution for Reducing the Large Number of Vehicle and Pedestrian Accidents Occurring on a Yellow Light

Traffic intersections are incredibly dangerous for drivers and pedestrians. Statistics from both Canada and the U.S. show a high number of fatalities and serious injuries related to crashes at intersections. In Canada, during 2019, the National Collision Database shows that 28% of traffic fatalities and 42% of serious injuries occurred at intersections. Likewise, the U.S. National Highway Traffic Administration (NHTSA) found that about 40% of the estimated 5,811,000 accidents in the U.S. during the year studied were intersection-related crashes. In fact, a major survey by the car insurance industry found that nearly 85% of drivers could not identify the correct action to take when approaching a yellow traffic light at an intersection. One major reason for these accidents is the “yellow light dilemma,” the ambiguous situation where a driver should stop or proceed forward when unexpectedly faced with a yellow light. This situation is even further exacerbated by the tendency of aggressive drivers to inappropriately speed up on the yellow just to get through the traffic light. A survey of Canadian drivers conducted by the Traffic Injury Research Foundation found that 9% of drivers admitted to speeding up to get through a traffic light. Another reason for these accidents is the increased danger of making a left-hand turn on yellow. According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Association (NHTSA), left turns occur in approximately 22.2% of collisions—as opposed to just 1.2% for right turns. Moreover, a study by CNN found left turns are three times as likely to kill pedestrians than right turns. The reason left turns are so much more likely to cause an accident is because they take a driver against traffic and in the path of oncoming cars. Additionally, most of these left turns occur at the driver’s discretion—as opposed to the distressingly brief left-hand arrow at busy intersections. Drive Safe Now proposes a workable solution for reducing the number of accidents occurring during a yellow light at intersections. We believe this fairly simple solution will save lives, prevent injuries, reduce damage to public and private property, and decrease insurance costs.

Analysis of Thorax Injuries in 112 Death Cases Caused by Traffic Accidents

Objective: To explore the characteristics and mechanisms of serious injuries of chest caused by road traffic accidents. Methods: Totally 112 autopsy cases with chest injuries in the urban of Jingzhou road traffic accidents were collected. Systematic review and analysis of the general information, postmortem examinations and assessments of chest injury had carried out from Feb. 2016 to Mar. 2018. Results: Average age of the victims was 52.2 years and the ratio of male to female deaths was 2.39:1. The proportion of motor-cyclists and pedestrians increased significantly. The overwhelming majority of accident vehicles were motorcycles and bicycles. Fractures of ribs and pulmonary contusion were the most common injuries. Craniocerebral and abdominal injuries were the most common associated injuries. Conclusion: Fractures of ribs and pulmonary contusion were the most common features of fatal road traffic injuries, often associated with vitreoretinal damage and serious multiple damages. These features reflect the characteristics of great violence in traffic accidents, which provides the evidence of identification of violent injuries.

Factors and Pattern of Injuries Associated with Road Traffic Accidents in Hilly District of Nepal

Introduction: In 21st century, road traffic accidents (RTA) are considered as increasing epidemic of non-communicable disease which is abandoned and needs special attention to prevent them. The aim of this study was to assess the factors and pattern of injuries associated with road traffic accidents. Methods: A cross sectional study was conducted among 112 RTA victims and 56 drivers in Palpa District of Nepal. The association of factors and pattern of injuries with exposure to accidents was assessed using Fisher’s exact test. Bivariate logistic regression examined the association between driving and socio-demographics factors and exposure to road accidents. Results: Of 112 RTA victims, 50% were in the age group of 21 to 40 years and 71.4% were male. Drivers who were in the age less than or equal to 30 years were more likely (OR: 3.6;95% CI: 1.0, 14.3) to expose to an accident than those who were above 30 years. Similarly, those having driving speed less than 40 km/hr were less likely to expose to an accident than those with speed 40 - 60 km/hr (OR: 6.0;95% CI: 0.8, 73.5) and those with speed more than 60 km/hr (OR 7.8;95% CI: 1.0, 100.1). Moreover, the driving experience was also found positively associated (OR: 5.6;95% CI: 1.1, 35.5) with the exposure to an accident. Conclusion: Being in younger age group, male gender, morning time, the driving speed, driving experiences, and driving hours on the road were positively associated with RTA. The efforts should be made to enforce laws in control of speed targeting experienced drivers and those with younger age groups.

Postmortem MSCT Diagnosis of Whiplash Injuries in a Traffic Accident：A Case Report and Review of the Literature

A 45-year-old male car driver died in a traffic accident of four cars rear-end collision on the highway.He was found to have died after a respiratory and cardiac arrest at the scene.No sign of skin injuries was observed from the external inspection.The autopsy was not permitted by the family members because of the local culture.Multislice computed tomography(MSCT)was applied to the current case,showing dislocation of C3~4cervical vertebrae withⅡdegree,C4vertebral plate fractures,and spinal stenosis.Post-mortem MSCT confirmed the diagnosis as whiplash injuries.MSCT was verified to be effective in showing the severity of whiplash injuries,thus providing certain objective evidence for medicolegal expertise.

3D Finite Element Model of Human Knee Injuries in the Traffic Accident

Objective To explore the injury mechanism of the human knee in a traffic accident by establishing a 3D finite element(FE) model. Methods The FE model, composed of femur, tibia, fibula, patella, meniscus, knee ligaments and surrounding soft tissues, was reconstructed by CT scanning data from a male volunteer. Validation was performed by the lateral impact simulation, and the stress and strain results were obtained to be compared with those previously reported for injury prediction. Results The results derived from the FE model were found to be similar with those previously reported, most of the ligaments and meniscus wounded at 40 m/s collision, which was readily observed. Conclusion The simulation results generated by FE model can be effectively used for the injury mechanism analysis of initial contact.

Injury patterns of seniors in traffic accidents: A technical and medical analysis

AIM:To investigate the actual injury situation of seniors in traffic accidents and to evaluate the different injury patterns.METHODS:Injury data,environmental circumstances and crash circumstances of accidents were collected shortly after the accident event at the scene.With these data,a technical and medical analysis was performed,including Injury Severity Score,Abbreviated Injury Scale and Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale.The method of data collection is named the German InDepth Accident Study and can be seen as representative.RESULTS:A total of 4430 injured seniors in traffic accidents were evaluated.The incidence of sustaining severe injuries to extremities,head and maxillofacial region was significantly higher in the group of elderly people compared to a younger age(P<0.05).The number of accident-related injuries was higher in the group of seniors compared to other groups.CONCLUSION:Seniors are more likely to be involved in traffic injuries and to sustain serious to severe injuries compared to other groups.

Injury Pattern among Road Traffic Accidents’ Victims in Najran City, Saudi Arabia

Traffic accidents constitute the substantial cause of disability and mortality in the young Saudi individuals reaching horrible figures. The aim of this study was to review and identify the pattern of injury among road traffic accident (RTA) victims as well as the peak time of accidents and their implications. This retrospective hospital-based cross-sectional study was carried out in the period between April 2016 to March 2017 in King Khalid Hospital, Maternity and Children Hospital and Najran General Hospital, Najran, Saudi Arabia. All RTA victims admitted to the emergency departments of the pre-mentioned hospitals. Data collected from 435 Saudis and non-Saudis’ files were statistically analyzed with regard to age, gender, the timing of road traffic accidents, injury pattern, and neurological deficits incidence. Most of the RTAs’ cases (92%) were male victims with the highest peak in the age group 20 - 29 years. 58% of the RTAs happened in the evening (6:00 PM-9:00 PM) while 20% occurred in the morning. Head injury represented the most frequent pattern (36%) followed by the spinal injury (23%), lower limb injury (23%), upper limb injury (20%), thoracic injury (17%), pelvic injury and abdominal injury (8%). 4.4% of RTAs resulted in death whilst 9% of cases experienced neurological deficits. In conclusion, young male drivers in Najran recorded the highest frequency of RTAs. Initiation of road safety education and expansion of speed detectors (Saher) system deployment is highly recommended.

Parametric analysis of craniocerebral injury mechanism in pedestrian trafficaccidents based on finite element methods

Purpose:The toughest challenge in pedestrian traffic accident identification lies in ascertaining injurymanners.This study aimed to systematically simulate and parameterize 3 types of craniocerebral injuryincluding impact injury,fall injury,and run-over injury,to compare the injury response outcomes ofdifferent injury manners.Methods:Based on the total human model for safety(THUMS)and its enhanced human model THUMShollow structures,a total of 84 simulations with 3 injury manners,different loading directions,andloading velocities were conducted.Von Mises stress,intracranial pressure,maximum principal strain,cumulative strain damage measure,shear stress,and cranial strain were employed to analyze the injuryresponse of all areas of the brain.To examine the association between injury conditions and injuryconsequences,correlation analysis,principal component analysis,linear regression,and stepwise linearregression were utilized.Results:There is a significant correlation observed between each criterion of skull and brain injury(p<0.01 in all Pearson correlation analysis results).A 2-phase increase of cranio-cerebral stress andstrain as impact speed increases.In high-speed impact(>40 km/h),the Von Mises stress on the skull waswith a high possibility exceed the threshold for skull fracture(100 MPa).When falling and makingtemporal and occipital contact with the ground,the opposite side of the impacted area experienceshigher frequency stress concentration than contact at other conditions.Run-over injuries tend to have amore comprehensive craniocerebral injury,with greater overall deformation due to more adequate kinetic energy conduction.The mean value of maximum principal strain of brain and Von Mises stress ofcranium at run-over condition are 1.39 and 403.8 MPa,while they were 1.31,94.11 MPa and 0.64,120.5 MPa for the impact and fall conditions,respectively.The impact velocity also plays a significant rolein craniocerebral injury in impact and fall loading conditions(the p of all F-test<0.05).A regressionequation of the craniocerebral injury manners in pedestrian accidents was established.Conclusion:The study distinguished the craniocerebral injuries caused in different manners,elucidatedthe biomechanical mechanisms of craniocerebral injury,and provided a biomechanical foundation forthe identification of craniocerebral injury in legal contexts.

Risk factors and predictive model of cerebral edema after road traffic accidents-related traumatic brain injury

Purpose:Cerebral edema(CE)is the main secondary injury following traumatic brain injury(TBI)caused by road traffic accidents(RTAs).It is challenging to be predicted timely.In this study,we aimed to develop a prediction model for CE by identifying its risk factors and comparing the timing of edema occurrence in TBI patients with varying levels of injuries.Methods:This case-control study included 218 patients with TBI caused by RTAs.The cohort was divided into CE and non-CE groups,according to CT results within 7 days.Demographic data,imaging data,and clinical data were collected and analyzed.Quantitative variables that follow normal distribution were presented as mean±standard deviation,those that do not follow normal distribution were presented as median(Q1,Q3).Categorical variables were expressed as percentages.The Chi-square test and logistic regression analysis were used to identify risk factors for CE.Logistic curve fitting was performed to predict the time to secondary CE in TBI patients with different levels of injuries.The efficacy of the model was evaluated using the receiver operator characteristic curve.Results:According to the study,almost half(47.3%)of the patients were found to have CE.The risk factors associated with CE were bilateral frontal lobe contusion,unilateral frontal lobe contusion,cerebral contusion,subarachnoid hemorrhage,and abbreviated injury scale(AIS).The odds ratio values for these factors were 7.27(95%confidence interval(CI):2.08-25.42,p=0.002),2.85(95%CI:1.11-7.31,p=0.030),2.62(95%CI:1.12-6.13,p=0.027),2.44(95%CI:1.25-4.76,p=0.009),and 1.5(95%CI:1.10-2.04,p=0.009),respectively.We also observed that patients with mild/moderate TBI(AIS≤3)had a 50%probability of developing CE 19.7 h after injury(χ^(2)=13.82,adjusted R2=0.51),while patients with severe TBI(AIS>3)developed CE after 12.5 h(χ^(2)=18.48,adjusted R2=0.54).Finally,we conducted a receiver operator characteristic curve analysis of CE time,which showed an area under the curve of 0.744 and 0.672 for severe and mild/moderate TBI,respectively.Conclusion:Our study found that the onset of CE in individuals with TBI resulting from RTAs was correlated with the severity of the injury.Specifically,those with more severe injuries experienced an earlier onset of CE.These findings suggest that there is a critical time window for clinical intervention in cases of CE secondary to TBI.

Numerical Reconstruction and Injury Biomechanism in a Car- Pedestrian Crash Accident

Objective To reconstruct a car-pedestrian crash accident using numerical simulation technology and explore the injury biomechanism as forensic evidence for injury identification. Methods An integration of multi-body dynamic, finite element (FE), and classical method was applied to a car-pedestrian crash accident. The location of the collision and the details of the traffic accident were determined by vehicle trace verification and autopsy. The accident reconstruction was performed by coupling the three-dimensional car behavior from PC-CRASH with a MADYMO dummy model. The collision FE models of head and leg, developed from CT scans of human remains, were loaded with calculated dummy collision parameters. The data of the impact biomechanical responses were extracted in terms of von Mises stress, relative displacement, strain and stress fringes. Results The accident reconstruction results were identical with the examined ones and the biomechanism of head and leg injuries, illustrated through the FE methods, were consistent with the classical injury theories. Conclusion The numerical simulation technology is proved to be effective in identifying traffic accidents and exploring of injury biomechanism.

Clinical analysis of 28 children suffering from intracranial hematoma and multiple injuries following traffic accidents

Objective: To evaluate the result of diagnosis and treatment of intracranial hematoma and multiple injuries caused by road traffic accidents. Methods: Twenty-eight patients, aged from 1 to 14 years, receiving craniotomy and other surgical treatments were retrospectively reviewed. Results: Among the 28 cases, 23 cured with the recovery rate of (82.3)%, 2 had a sequel of moderate disability, and 3 died from severe brain injury, hemorrhagic shock, and other visceral complications. The clinical sympotoms and signs were severe and perplexing. The major characters included: severe head injury, usually combined by multiple injuries, and easy of access to missed diagnosis and misdiagnosis. Conclusions: The occurrence of infection is high after traffic accidents as a result of depression of humoral and cellular immunity, long-term bed rest, and fractures of limbs. Hence, on the basis of maintaining vital signs, the management of primary wound is essential to reduce infection and underlying death. In addition to the management of brain injury, concurrent injuries should also be highlighted so as to reach a good result for their patients.

Treatment of limb arterial injuries caused by traffic accidents

Objective: To analyze the features, diagnosis and treatment of limb arterial injuries caused by traffic accidents. Methods: A total of 43 patients with limb arterial injury admitted in our department over the past 30 years (about 50% of them happened during the last 10 years) were analyzed retrospectively in this article. The popliteal, femoral and brachial arteries were mainly involved, accounting for 43.2 %, 20.5 % and 20.5 % respectively of all the involvements. There were 35 cases of open injury and 9 of close injury. The involved vessels were transected in 43.2 % of the cases and contused in 40.9 %. All the patients had various complications, such as fractures, dislocations and severe soft tissue injuries. The injured vessels were repaired by means of end to end anastomosis in 10 cases, autogenous vein graft in 23 cases and intraluminal hydraulic dilatation in 4 cases. Results: Successful limb salvage was achieved in 34 cases initially, whereas 10 amputations were carried out due to injuries to popliteal arteries in 7, femoral arteries in 2 and humeral artery in 1 and severe soft tissue damages in 9 cases. Twenty nine patients were followed up for 1 156 months, with the average of 48.8 months. There was good circulation in 22 cases and certain ischemia in 5 cases. Two amputations were carried out in the late stage because of popliteal artery thrombosis after repair in 2 cases. There was no death in this series. Conclusions: The limb arterial injuries caused by traffic accidents are severe and complicated. It is proposed that particular attentions should be paid to the features in diagnosis and treatment for this type of injury and special efforts should be made for both life saving and limb salvage.

Analysis on the accident casualties influenced by several economic factors based on the traffic-related data in China from 2004 to 2016

Purpose:By studying the economic data related to road traffic accidents in recent 10 years,this paper explores the impact of various economic factors on the number of casualties in traffic accidents in China,and puts forward related prevention and management measures.Methods:Based on five economic factors including the number of new health institutions,health investment,transportation investment and disposable income per capita,this paper collects the data of traffic accidents in 31 provinces and municipalities of China from 2004 to 2016 and estimates the parameters using fixed effect model.Results:The number of health institutions,health investment,transportation investment and disposable income per capita are negatively correlated with the number of traffic accident casualties;the number of new health institutions is positively correlated with the number of traffic accident casualties;health investment and transportation investment have a great impact on the number of road traffic accident casualties.Conclusion:Economic development has a positive impact on improving traffic conditions,but the increase in the number of new health institutions does not reduce the number of casualties in accidents.The irrational layout of health institutions and imperfect road traffic management mechanism should be taken into account.

An epidemiologic survey of road traffic accidents in Iran： analysis of driver-related factors

ObjectiveRoad 交通事故(RTA ) 和它的相关损害在伊朗贡献疾病的负担的重要部分。这份报纸在 countryMethodsThis 探索在司机相关的因素和 RTA 之间的协会代表性的学习从 2010 年 3 月 20 日关于 RTA 在伊朗和所有数据被进行到 2010 年 6 月 10 日从交通警察部门被获得。我们包括了 538 588 RTA 记录，它被分类为主要 confounders 控制：事故类型，事故的最后的原因，事故的时间和司机相关的因素。司机相关的因素包括了性，教育水平，许可证类型，损害的类型，在事故之间的持续时间并且得到驾驶执照和 538 588 位司机的 driver&rsquo;s 错误 type.ResultsA 总数(91.83% 男性，几乎 13:1 的性比率) 涉及 RTA。在他们之中 423 (78.71%) 932 是未受损伤的；224 (41.74%) 818 有证书度。等级 2 驾驶执照代表了所有驾驶执照的最高的比例(290 811， 54.00%) 。事故的最大的数字发生在 12:00-13:59 (75 024， 13.93%) 。涉及 RTA 的司机的比例在在 10 &#xA0 以后得到一个驾驶执照到 3.13% 的第一年里从 15.90% 减少了； years&rsquo;驾驶经验。规定的疏忽是交通碰撞的最普通的原因(345 589， 64.17%) 。到前面的优先级和疏忽的违反是死亡的最经常的最后的原因(138 175， 25.66% 和 129 352， 24.02% ，分别地) 。我们发现了在事故和性的类型之间的重要协会，教育，许可证类型，事故的时间，事故的最后的原因，在事故之间的 driver&rsquo;s 错误以及持续时间并且得到驾驶执照(所有 P&#xA0 ；< &#xA0 ； 0.001 ) .ConclusionOur 结果将改进交通法律实施措施，它将改变司机的不恰当的行为并且保护最不富有经验的道路用户。

Improving hospital-based trauma care for road traffic injuries in Malawi

BACKGROUND: The mortality rate from road traffic injuries has increased in sub-Saharan Africa as the number of motor vehicles increase. This study examined the capacity of hospitals along Malawi's main north-south highway to provide emergency trauma care.METHODS: Structured interviews and checklists were used to evaluate the infrastructure, personnel, supplies, and equipment at all four of Malawi's central hospitals, ten district hospitals, and one mission hospital in 2014. Most of these facilities are along the main north-south highway that spans the country.RESULTS: Between July 2013 and March 2014, more than 9 200 road traffic injuries(RTIs) and 100 RTI deaths were recorded by the participating hospitals. All of the hospitals reported staff shortages, especially during nights and weekends. Few clinicians had completed formal training in emergency trauma management, and healthcare workers reported gaps in knowledge and skills, especially at district hospitals. Most central hospitals had access to the critical supplies and medications necessary for trauma care, but district hospitals lacked some of the supplies and equipment needed for diagnosis, treatment, and personal protection.CONCLUSION: The mortality and disability burden from road traffi c injuries in Malawi(and other low-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa) can be reduced by ensuring that every central and district hospital has a dedicated trauma unit with qualified staff who have completed primary trauma care courses and have access to the equipment necessary to save lives.

Study on characteristics of fractures from road traffic accidents in 306 cases

Objective: To investigate the characteristics of bone fractures from road traffic accidents and analyze their injury mechanisms so as to provide reference for the research and medical care of traffic trauma. Methods: Three hundred and six patients with fractures from road traffic accidents were included into this study. A total of 507 fractures were identified and the injury mechanism, location distribution and frequency were analyzed. Results: The most common location of fractures was the lower extremities, followed by the upper extremities, skull and maxillofacial region, and the rarest was the spine. A total of 56% of the patients suffered from multiple fractures. The fractures of the patella, femur and pelvis and the fractures of the olecranon, humerus and shoulder often happened simultaneously. Conclusions: The injury mechanisms can be classified into four types: impact, incoordinate movement, stretch injury and crush and extrusion. The fractures from traffic accidents have the following characteristics: centrifugal distribution of the injuries, multiple fractures, force transmission and ipsilateral occurrence.

Trauma outcomes in nonfatal road traffic accidents:a Portuguese medico-legal approach

The objective of this study was to compare the outcomes of nonfatal road traffic accidents by the victims’age group and sex.We used the Portuguese medico-legal rules for personal injury assessment,in the scope of the Civil Law in that country,which includes a three-dimensional methodology.This was a retrospective study including 667 victims of road traffic accidents aged 3–94 years old.Their final medico-legal reports all used the Portuguese methodology for personal injury assessment.Outcomes were analysed by the victims’age group(children,working-age adults,and older people)and sex.Road traffic accidents were generally serious(ISS mean 9.5),with higher severity in children and older people.The most frequent body sequelae were musculoskeletal(64.8%),which were associated with functional and situational outcomes.Temporary damage resulted in an average length of impairment of daily life of 199.6 days,171.7 days to return to work,and an average degree of quantum doloris(noneconomic damage related to physical and psychological harm)of 3.7/7.The average permanent damage was 7.3/100 points for Permanent Functional Deficit,0.43/3 for Permanent Professional Repercussion,2/7 for Permanent Aesthetic Damage,3.9/7 for Permanent Repercussion on Sexual Activity and 3.2/7 for Permanent Repercussion on Sport and Leisure Activities.Overall,19%of people became permanently dependent(10.6%needed third-party assistance).The medico-legal methodology used,considering victims’real-life situation,allows a comprehensive assessment.There were several significant differences among the three age groups but none between sexes.These differences and the impact of the more severe cases justify further detailed medico-legal studies in these specific situations on children,older people,and severely injured victims.

Evaluation of differences in injury patterns according to seat position in trauma victims survived traffic accidents

Purpose： Investigation of injury patterns epidemiology among car occupants may help to develop different therapeutic approach according to the seat position. The aim of the study was to evaluate and compare differences in the incidence of serious injuries, between occupants in different locations in private cars. Methods： A retrospective study including trauma patients who were involved in motor vehicle accidents and admitted alive to 20 hospitals （6 level I trauma centers and 14 level II trauma centers）. We examined the incidence of injures with abbreviated injury score 3 and more, and compared their occurrence be- tween seat locations. Results： The study included 28,653 trauma patients, drivers account for 60.8% （17,417）. Front passenger mortality was 0.47% higher than in drivers. Rear seat passengers were at greater risk （10.26%） for trau- matic brain injuries than front seat passengers （7.48%） and drivers （7.01%）. Drivers are less likely to suffer from serious abdominal injuries （3.84%） compared to the passengers （front passengers - 5.91%, rear passengers - 5.46%）. Conclusion： Out of victims who arrived alive to the hospital, highest mortality was found in front seat passengers. The rate of serious chest injuries was higher as well. Rear seat passengers are at greater risk for serious traumatic brain injuries. All passengers have a greater incidence of abdominal injuries. These findings need to be addressed in order to develop ＂customized＂ therapeutic policy in trauma victims.

Road Traffic Accident Fatalities and its Association with Key SocioDemographic Determinants in Nashik,Maharashtra:A Recurring Challenge

Background:Road traffic accidents are not a new phenomenon,rather ifs a disturbing occurrence which shows no sign of abating very soon.Rather,it remains one of those public health issues which even the most educated and civilized populations tend to ignore,primarily for the thrill of it.This study aims to identify the outcome associated with vehicular accidents and its association with socio-demographic factors.Method:This is a retrospective,record-based study of victims of road traffic accidents admitted in a tertiary care hospital in Nashik,Maharashtra.The data would include records from the 2018 to 2019.The variables will include the socio-demographic factors,site of injuries and its severity.A descriptive analysis would be done by SPSS software to find out the prevalence of vehicular accidents,association of site of injury with age and severity of the trauma.Ethical approval would be taken before the initiation of the study.Result:A total of486 victims ofRTAs were included from the medical records of the casualty of a tertiary care hospital,out of which 330 were from the year 2018 and 156 from 2019.A look at the sociodemographic profiles of the RTA victims showed that females comprised only 19.3%(2018)and 18.6%(2019)of the total victims in road traffic accidents,while majority,80.6%(2018)and 81.4%(2019)were males during the same period.Overall,we can also observe that both in 2018(38.5%)and 2019(50.6%)most of the road traffic accidents among the victims were of moderate grade.Conclusion:The need of the hour is to bring about a change from within through self-reflection of lawmakers,strict implementation of traffic rules and guidelines with hefty fines,lockup,and criminal punishment to habitual wrongdoers.

Prediction of the burden of road traffic injuries in Iran by 2030: Prevalence, death,and disability-adjusted life years

Purpose:Road traffic accidents pose a global challenge with substantial human and economic costs.Iranexperiences a high incidence of road traffic injuries,leading to a significant burden on society.This studyaims to predict the future burden of road traffic injuries in Iran until 2030,providing valuable insights forpolicy-making and interventions to improve road safety and reduce the associated human and economiccosts.Methods:This analytical study utilized time series models,specifically autoregressive integrated movingaverage(ARIMA)and artificial neural networks(ANNs),to predict the burden of road traffic accidents byanalyzing past data to identify patterns and trends in Iran until 2030.The required data related toprevalence,death,and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)rates were collected from the Institute forHealth Metrics and Evaluation database and analyzed using R software and relevant modeling andstatistical analysis packages.Results:Both prediction models,ARIMA and ANNs indicate that the prevalence rates(per 100,000)of allroad traffic injuries,except for motorcyclist road injuries which have an almost flat trend,remaining ataround 430,increase by 2030.Based on estimations of both models,the rates of death and DALYs due tomotor vehicle and pedestrian road traffic injuries decrease.For motor vehicle road injuries,estimatedtrends decrease to approximately 520 DALYs and 10 deaths.Also,for pedestrian road injuries these ratesreached approximately 300 DALYs and 6 deaths,according to the models.For cyclists and other roadtraffic injuries,the predicted DALY rates by the ANN model increase to almost 50 and 8,while predictionsconducted by the ARIMA model show a static trend,remaining at 40 and approximately 6.5.Moreover,these rates for the prediction of death rate by the ANN model increased to 0.6 and 0.1,while predictionsconducted by the ARIMA model show a static trend,remaining at 0.43 and 0.07.According to the ANNmodel,the predicted rates of DALY and death for motorcyclists decrease to 100 and approximately 2.7,respectively.On the other hand,predictions made by the ARIMA model show a static trend,with ratesremaining at 200 and approximately 3.2,respectively.Conclusion:The prevalence of road traffic injuries is predicted to increase,while the death and DALYrates of road traffic injuries show different patterns.Effective intervention programs and safety measuresare necessary to prevent and reduce road traffic accidents.Different interventions should be designedand implemented specifically for different groups of pedestrians,cyclists,motorcyclists,and motorvehicle drivers.