AIM： To identify the risk factors in predicting the out- come of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure pa- tients. METHODS： We retrospectively divided 113 patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure-hepatitis ...AIM： To identify the risk factors in predicting the out- come of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure pa- tients. METHODS： We retrospectively divided 113 patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure-hepatitis B virus （ACLF-HBV） and without concurrent hepatitis C or D virus infection and hepatocellular carcinoma into two groups according to their outcomes after anti-HBV therapy. Their demographic, clinical, and biochemical data on the day of diagnosis and after the first week of treatment were analyzed using the Mann-Whitney U test, Fisher＇s exact test, and a multiple logistic regres- sion analysis. RESULTS： The study included 113 patients （87 men and 26 women） with a mean age of 49.84 years. Fifty- two patients survived, and 61 patients died. Liver failure （85.2%）, sepsis （34.4%）, and multiple organ failure （39.3%） were the main causes of death. Mul- tivariate analyses showed that Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation （APACHE） Ⅱ scores ≥ 12 [odds ratio （OR） = 7.160, 95% CI： 2.834-18.092, P 〈 0.001] and positive blood culture （OR = 13.520, 95% CI： 2.740-66.721, P = 0.001） on the day of diagnosis and model for end-stage liver disease （MELD） scores 28 （OR = 8.182, 95% CI： 1.884-35.527, P = 0.005） after the first week of treatment were independent predictors of mortality. CONCLUSION： APACHE II scores on the day of diag- nosis and MELD scores after the first week of anti-HBV therapy are feasible predictors of outcome in ACLF- HBV patients.展开更多
AIM:To evaluate the relationship between peptic ulcer disease(PUD) and acute pancreatitis.METHODS:A cohort of 78 patients with acute pancreatitis were included in this study.The presence of PUD and the Helicobacter py...AIM:To evaluate the relationship between peptic ulcer disease(PUD) and acute pancreatitis.METHODS:A cohort of 78 patients with acute pancreatitis were included in this study.The presence of PUD and the Helicobacter pylori(H.pylori) status were assessed by an endoscopic method.The severity of acute pancreatitis was assessed using Ranson's score,the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation(APACHE) □ score,computed tomography severity indexand the clinical data during hospitalization,all of which were compared between the patients with and without PUD.The risk factors for PUD were also evaluated.RESULTS:Among 78 patients,41 patients(52.6%) with acute pancreatitis suffered from PUD,but only 13(31.7%) patients with PUD were infected by H.pylori.On univariate analysis,male gender,an etiology of alcohol-induced pancreatitis,a history of smoking or alcohol consumption,elevated triglyceride and C-reactive protein levels,and high APACHE □ score were signif icantly associated with PUD.However,on multivariate logistic regressionanalysis,the APACHE □ score(odds ratio:7.69;95% conf idence interval:1.78-33.33;P < 0.01) was found to be the only independent risk factor for PUD.CONCLUSION:Patients with acute pancreatitis are liable to suffer from PUD.PUD is associated with severeacute pancreatitis according to the APACHE □ score,and treatment for PUD should be considered for patients with severe acute pancreatitis.展开更多
BACKGROUND There are many risk factors for severe acute pancreatitis(SAP)complicated with acute gastrointestinal injury(AGI),but few reports on the interaction between these risk factors.AIM To analyze the risk factor...BACKGROUND There are many risk factors for severe acute pancreatitis(SAP)complicated with acute gastrointestinal injury(AGI),but few reports on the interaction between these risk factors.AIM To analyze the risk factors for SAP complicated with AGI and their interactive effects.METHODS We selected 168 SAP patients admitted to our hospital between December 2019 and June 2022.They were divided into AGI group and non-AGI group according to whether AGI was present.Demographic data and laboratory test data were compared between the two groups.The risk factors for SAP with concomitant AGI were analyzed using multifactorial logistic regression,and an analysis of the interaction of the risk factors was performed.RESULTS The percentage of patients with multiple organ dysfunction syndrome,acute physiological and chronic health scoring system II(APACHE II)score,white blood cell count and creatinine(CRE)level was higher in the AGI group than in the non-AGI group.There was a statistically significant difference between the two groups(P<0.05).Logistic regression analysis indicated that an APACHE II score>15 and CRE>100μmol/L were risk factors for SAP complicating AGI.The interaction index of APACHE II score and CRE level was 3.123.CONCLUSION An APACHE II score>15 and CRE level>100μmol/L are independent risk factors for SAP complicated with AGI,and there is a positive interaction between them.展开更多
BACKGROUND Liver transplantation aims to increase the survival of patients with end-stage liver diseases and improve their quality of life.The number of organs available for transplantation is lower than the demand.To...BACKGROUND Liver transplantation aims to increase the survival of patients with end-stage liver diseases and improve their quality of life.The number of organs available for transplantation is lower than the demand.To provide fair organ distribution,predictive mortality scores have been developed.AIM To compare the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV(APACHE IV),balance of risk(BAR),and model for end-stage liver disease(MELD)scores as predictors of mortality.METHODS Retrospective cohort study,which included 283 adult patients in the postoperative period of deceased donor liver transplantation from 2014 to 2018.RESULTS The transplant recipients were mainly male,with a mean age of 58.1 years.Donors were mostly male,with a mean age of 41.6 years.The median cold ischemia time was 3.1 hours,and the median intensive care unit stay was 5 days.For APACHE IV,a mean of 59.6 was found,BAR 10.7,and MELD 24.2.The 28-day mortality rate was 9.5%,and at 90 days,it was 3.5%.The 28-day mortality prediction for APACHE IV was very good[area under the curve(AUC):0.85,P<0.001,95%CI:0.76-0.94],P<0.001,BAR(AUC:0.70,P<0.001,95%CI:0.58–0.81),and MELD(AUC:0.66,P<0.006,95%CI:0.55-0.78),P<0.008.At 90 days,the data for APACHE IV were very good(AUC:0.80,P<0.001,95%CI:0.71–0.90)and moderate for BAR and MELD,respectively,(AUC:0.66,P<0.004,95%CI:0.55–0.77),(AUC:0.62,P<0.026,95%CI:0.51–0.72).All showed good discrimination between deaths and survivors.As for the best value for liver transplantation,it was significant only for APACHE IV(P<0.001).CONCLUSION The APACHE IV assessment score was more accurate than BAR and MELD in predicting mortality in deceased donor liver transplant recipients.展开更多
BACKGROUND Severe acute pancreatitis(SAP)is a common condition in the intensive care unit(ICU)and has a high mortality.Early evaluation of the severity and prognosis is very important for SAP therapy.Recently,red bloo...BACKGROUND Severe acute pancreatitis(SAP)is a common condition in the intensive care unit(ICU)and has a high mortality.Early evaluation of the severity and prognosis is very important for SAP therapy.Recently,red blood cell distribution(RDW)was associated with mortality of sepsis patients and could be used as a predictor of prognosis.Similarly,RDW may be associated with the prognosis of SAP patients and be used as a prognostic indicator for SAP patients.AIM To investigate the prognostic value of RDW for SAP patients.METHODS We retrospectively enrolled SAP patients admitted to the ICU of the First Affiliated Hospital of China Medical University from June 2015 to June 2017.According to the prognosis at 90 d,SAP patients were divided into a survival group and a non-survival group.RDW was extracted from a routine blood test.Demographic parameters and RDW were recorded and compared between the two groups.The receiver operator characteristic(ROC)curve was constructed and Cox regression analysis was performed to investigate the prognostic value of RDW for SAP patients.RESULTS In this retrospective cohort study,42 SAP patients were enrolled,of whom 22 survived(survival group)and 20 died(non-survival group).The baseline parameters were comparable between the two groups.The coefficient of variation of RDW(RDW-CV),standard deviation of RDW(RDW-SD),Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II(APACHE II)score,and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment(SOFA)score were significantly higher in the non-survival group than in the survival group(P<0.05).The RDW-CV and RDW-SD were significantly correlated with the APACHE II score and SOFA score,respectively.The areas under the ROC curves(AUCs)of RDW-CV and RDW-SD were all greater than those of the APACHE II score and SOFA score,among which,the AUC of RDW-SD was the greatest.The results demonstrated that RDW had better prognostic value for predicting the mortality of SAP patients.When the RDW-SD was greater than 45.5,the sensitivity for predicting prognosis was 77.8%and the specificity was 70.8%.Both RDW-CV and RDW-SD could be used as independent risk factors to predict the mortality of SAP patients in multivariate logistic regression analysis and univariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis,similar to the APACHE II and SOFA scores.CONCLUSION The RDW is greater in the non-surviving SAP patients than in the surviving patients.RDW is significantly correlated with the APACHE II and SOFA scores.RDW has better prognostic value for SAP patients than the APACHE II and SOFA scores and could easily be used by clinicians for the treatment of SAP patients.展开更多
AIM: To undertake a meta-analysis on the value of urinary trypsinogen activation peptide (uTAP) in predicting severity of acute pancreatitis on admission.METHODS: Major databases including Medline, Embase, Science Cit...AIM: To undertake a meta-analysis on the value of urinary trypsinogen activation peptide (uTAP) in predicting severity of acute pancreatitis on admission.METHODS: Major databases including Medline, Embase, Science Citation Index Expanded and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials in the Cochrane Library were searched to identify all relevant studies from January 1990 to January 2013. Pooled sensitivity, specificity and the diagnostic odds ratios (DORs) with 95%CI were calculated for each study and were compared to other systems/biomarkers if mentioned within the same study. Summary receiver-operating curves were conducted and the area under the curve (AUC) was evaluated.RESULTS: In total, six studies of uTAP with a cut-off value of 35 nmol/L were included in this meta-analysis. Overall, the pooled sensitivity and specificity of uTAP for predicting severity of acute pancreatitis, at time of admission, was 71% and 75%, respectively (AUC = 0.83, DOR = 8.67, 95%CI: 3.70-20.33). When uTAP was compared with plasma C-reactive protein, the pooled sensitivity, specificity, AUC and DOR were 0.64 vs 0.67, 0.77 vs 0.75, 0.82 vs 0.79 and 6.27 vs 6.32, respectively. Similarly, the pooled sensitivity, specificity, AUC and DOR of uTAP vs Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II within the first 48 h of admission were found to be 0.64 vs 0.69, 0.77 vs 0.61, 0.82 vs 0.73 and 6.27 vs 4.61, respectively.CONCLUSION: uTAP has the potential to act as a stratification marker on admission for differentiating disease severity of acute pancreatitis.展开更多
AIM: To assess the value of plasma melatonin in predicting acute pancreatitis when combined with the acute physiology and chronic health evaluation?II?(APACHEII) and bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (B...AIM: To assess the value of plasma melatonin in predicting acute pancreatitis when combined with the acute physiology and chronic health evaluation?II?(APACHEII) and bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) scoring systems.METHODS: APACHEII and BISAP scores were calculated for 55 patients with acute physiology (AP) in the first 24 h of admission to the hospital. Additionally, morning (6:00 AM) serum melatonin concentrations were measured on the first day after admission. According to the diagnosis and treatment guidelines for acute pancreatitis in China, 42 patients suffered mild AP (MAP). The other 13 patients developed severe AP (SAP). A total of 45 healthy volunteers were used in this study as controls. The ability of melatonin and the APACHEII and BISAP scoring systems to predict SAP was evaluated using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The optimal melatonin cutoff concentration for SAP patients, based on the ROC curve, was used to classify the patients into either a high concentration group (34 cases) or a low concentration group (21 cases). Differences in the incidence of high scores, according to the APACHEII and BISAP scoring systems, were compared between the two groups.RESULTS: The MAP patients had increased melatonin levels compared to the SAP (38.34 ng/L vs 26.77 ng/L) (P = 0.021) and control patients (38.34 ng/L vs 30.73 ng/L) (P = 0.003). There was no significant difference inmelatoninconcentrations between the SAP group and the control group. The accuracy of determining SAP based on the melatonin level, the APACHEII score and the BISAP score was 0.758, 0.872, and 0.906, respectively, according to the ROC curve. A melatonin concentration ≤ 28.74 ng/L was associated with an increased risk of developing SAP. The incidence of high scores (≥ 3) using the BISAP system was significantly higher in patients with low melatonin concentration (≤ 28.74 ng/L) compared to patients with high melatonin concentration (> 28.74 ng/L) (42.9% vs 14.7%, P = 0.02). The incidence of high APACHEII scores (≥ 10) between the two groups was not significantly different.CONCLUSION: The melatonin concentration is closely related to the severity of AP and the BISAP score. Therefore, we can evaluate the severity of disease by measuring the levels of serum melatonin.展开更多
Background Severity scoring systems are useful tools for measuring the severity of the disease and its outcome. This pilot study was to verify and compare the prognostic performance of the Simplified Acute Physiology ...Background Severity scoring systems are useful tools for measuring the severity of the disease and its outcome. This pilot study was to verify and compare the prognostic performance of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II （SAPS II） and Glasgow Coma Scale （GCS） in neuro-intensive care unit （N-ICU） patients. Methods A total of 1684 patients consecutively admitted to the N-ICU at Xuanwu Hospital between January 1, 2005 and December 31, 2011 were enrolled in this study. The data-base included admission data, at 24-, 48-, and 72-hour SAPS II and GCS. Repeated measure data analysis of variance, Logistic regression analysis, the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic were used to evaluate the performance. Results There was a significant difference between the SAPS II or GCS score at four time points （F=16.110, P=0.000 or F=8.108, P=0.000）. The SAPS II scores or GCS score at four time points interacted with the outcomes with significant difference （F=116.771, P=0.000 or F=65.316, P=0.000）. Calibration of the SAPS II or GCS score at each time point on all patients was good. The percentage of a risk estimate prediction corresponding to observed mortality was also good. The 72-hour score have the greatest consistency. Discriminations of the SAPS II or GCS score at each time were all satisfactory. The 72-hour score had the greatest discriminative power. The cut-off value was 33 （sensitivity of 85.2% and specificity of 74.3%） and 6 （sensitivity of 70.6% and specificity of 65.0%）. The SAPS II at each time point on all patients showed better calibration, consistency and discrimination than GCS. The binary Logistic regression analysis identified physiological variables, GCS, age, and disease category as significant independent risk factors of death. After the two variables including underlying disease and type of admission were excluded, we built the simplified SAPS II model. A correlation was suggested between the simplified SAPS II score at each time point and outcome, regardless of the diagnosis. Conclusions The GCS scoring system tends to be a little weaker in the predictive power than the SAPS II scoring system in this Chinese cohort of N-ICU patients. The advantage of SAPS II scoring system still exists that it dose not need to take into account the diagnosis or diseases categories, even in the special N-ICU. The simplified SAPS II scoring system is considered a new idea for the estimation of effectiveness.展开更多
BACKGROUND Acute mesenteric venous thrombosis(AMVT)can cause a poor prognosis.Prompt transcatheter thrombolysis(TT)can achieve early mesenteric revascularization.However,irreversible intestinal ischemia still occurs a...BACKGROUND Acute mesenteric venous thrombosis(AMVT)can cause a poor prognosis.Prompt transcatheter thrombolysis(TT)can achieve early mesenteric revascularization.However,irreversible intestinal ischemia still occurs and the mechanism is still unclear.AIM To evaluate the clinical outcomes of and to identify predictive factors for irreversible intestinal ischemia requiring surgical resection in AMVT patients treated by TT.METHODS The records of consecutive patients with AMVT treated by TT from January 2010 to October 2017 were retrospectively analyzed.We compared patients who required resection of irreversible intestinal ischemia to patients who did not require.RESULTS Among 58 patients,prompt TT was carried out 28.5 h after admission.A total of 42(72.4%)patients underwent arteriovenous combined thrombolysis,and 16(27.6%)underwent arterial thrombolysis alone.The overall 30-d mortality rate was 8.6%.Irreversible intestinal ischemia was indicated in 32(55.2%)patients,who had a higher 30-d mortality and a longer in-hospital stay than patients without resection.The significant independent predictors of irreversible intestinal ischemia were Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation(APACHE)II score(odds ratio=2.368,95% confidence interval:1.047-5.357,P=0.038)and leukocytosis(odds ratio=2.058,95% confidence interval:1.085-3.903,P=0.027).Using the receiver operating characteristic curve,the cutoff values of the APACHE II score and leukocytosis for predicting the onset of irreversible intestinal ischemia were calculated to be 8.5 and 12×10^9/L,respectively.CONCLUSION Prompt TT could achieve a favorable outcome in AMVT patients.High APACHE II score and leukocytosis can significantly predict the occurrence of irreversible intestinal ischemia.Therefore,close monitoring of these factors may help with the early identification of patients with irreversible intestinal ischemia,in whom ultimately surgical resection is required,before the initiation of TT.展开更多
AIM To evaluate the numbers of different subsets of monocytes and their associations with the values of clinical measures in mild acute pancreatitis(MAP) patients.METHODS The study included one group of 13 healthy con...AIM To evaluate the numbers of different subsets of monocytes and their associations with the values of clinical measures in mild acute pancreatitis(MAP) patients.METHODS The study included one group of 13 healthy controls and another group of 24 patients with new-onset MAP. The numbers of different subsets of monocytes were examined in these two groups of subjects by flow cytometry. The concentrations of plasma interleukin(IL)-10 and IL-12 were determined by cytometric bead array. The acute physiology and chronic health evaluation(APACHE) II scores of individual patients were evaluated, and the levels of plasma C-reactive protein(CRP) as well as the activities of amylase and lipase were measured. RESULTS In comparison with that in the controls, significantly increased numbers of CD14+CD163-, CD14+CD163-MAC387+ M1 monocytes, but significantly reduced numbers of CD14+CD163+IL-10+ M2 monocytes were detected in the MAP patients(P < 0.01 or P < 0.05). Furthermore, significantly higher levels of plasma IL-10 and IL-12 were observed in the MAP patients(P < 0.01 for all). More importantly, the levels of plasma CRP were positively correlated with the numbers of CD14+CD163-(R = 0.5009, P = 0.0127) and CD14+CD163-MAC387+(R = 0.5079, P = 0.0113) M1 monocytes and CD14+CD163+CD115+ M2 monocytes(R = 0.4565, P = 0.0249) in the patients. The APACHE II scores correlated with the numbers of CD14+CD163+CD115+(R = 0.4581, P = 0.0244) monocytes and the levels of plasma IL-10(R = 0.4178, P = 0.0422) in the MAP patients. However, there was no significant association among other measures tested in this population. CONCLUSION Increased numbers of CD14+CD163- and CD14+ CD163-MAC387+ monocytes may contribute to the pathogenesis of MAP, and increased numbers of CD14+CD163+CD115+ monocytes may be a biomarker for evaluating the severity of MAP.展开更多
BACKGROUND Laparotomy remains one of the commonest emergency surgical procedures.Early prognostic evaluation would aid in selecting the high-risk patients for an aggressive treatment. Awareness about risks could poten...BACKGROUND Laparotomy remains one of the commonest emergency surgical procedures.Early prognostic evaluation would aid in selecting the high-risk patients for an aggressive treatment. Awareness about risks could potentially contribute to the quality of perioperative care and optimum utilization of resources. Portsmouth modification of Physiological and operative severity for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity(P-POSSUM) and the acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ(APACHE-Ⅱ) have been the most widely used scoring systems for emergency laparotomies. It is always better to have a single scoring system to predict outcomes and audit healthcare organizations.AIM To compare the ability of APACHE-Ⅱ and P-POSSUM to predict postoperative morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing emergency laparotomy.METHODS All patients undergoing emergency laparotomy at the Tata Main Hospital,Jamshedpur between December 2013 and November 2014 were included in the study. In this observational study, P-POSSUM and APACHE-Ⅱ scoring were done, and the outcome analysis evaluated with mortality being the primary outcome.RESULTS For P-POSSUM, at a cut off value of 63 to predict mortality using receiver operating characteristics curve analysis, the area under the curve was 0.989; and for APACHE-Ⅱ, at the cut off value of 24, the area under the curve was 0.965.CONCLUSION Because the ability of APACHE-Ⅱ to predict mortality was similar to P-POSSUM and APACHE-Ⅱ does not need scoring for intra-operative findings and histopathology reports, APACHE-Ⅱ can be used pre-operatively to assess the risk in patients undergoing emergency laparotomy. However, for audit purposes,either of the two scoring systems can be used.展开更多
基金Supported by Tri-Service General Hospital,No.TSGH-C101-137
文摘AIM： To identify the risk factors in predicting the out- come of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure pa- tients. METHODS： We retrospectively divided 113 patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure-hepatitis B virus （ACLF-HBV） and without concurrent hepatitis C or D virus infection and hepatocellular carcinoma into two groups according to their outcomes after anti-HBV therapy. Their demographic, clinical, and biochemical data on the day of diagnosis and after the first week of treatment were analyzed using the Mann-Whitney U test, Fisher＇s exact test, and a multiple logistic regres- sion analysis. RESULTS： The study included 113 patients （87 men and 26 women） with a mean age of 49.84 years. Fifty- two patients survived, and 61 patients died. Liver failure （85.2%）, sepsis （34.4%）, and multiple organ failure （39.3%） were the main causes of death. Mul- tivariate analyses showed that Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation （APACHE） Ⅱ scores ≥ 12 [odds ratio （OR） = 7.160, 95% CI： 2.834-18.092, P 〈 0.001] and positive blood culture （OR = 13.520, 95% CI： 2.740-66.721, P = 0.001） on the day of diagnosis and model for end-stage liver disease （MELD） scores 28 （OR = 8.182, 95% CI： 1.884-35.527, P = 0.005） after the first week of treatment were independent predictors of mortality. CONCLUSION： APACHE II scores on the day of diag- nosis and MELD scores after the first week of anti-HBV therapy are feasible predictors of outcome in ACLF- HBV patients.
文摘AIM:To evaluate the relationship between peptic ulcer disease(PUD) and acute pancreatitis.METHODS:A cohort of 78 patients with acute pancreatitis were included in this study.The presence of PUD and the Helicobacter pylori(H.pylori) status were assessed by an endoscopic method.The severity of acute pancreatitis was assessed using Ranson's score,the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation(APACHE) □ score,computed tomography severity indexand the clinical data during hospitalization,all of which were compared between the patients with and without PUD.The risk factors for PUD were also evaluated.RESULTS:Among 78 patients,41 patients(52.6%) with acute pancreatitis suffered from PUD,but only 13(31.7%) patients with PUD were infected by H.pylori.On univariate analysis,male gender,an etiology of alcohol-induced pancreatitis,a history of smoking or alcohol consumption,elevated triglyceride and C-reactive protein levels,and high APACHE □ score were signif icantly associated with PUD.However,on multivariate logistic regressionanalysis,the APACHE □ score(odds ratio:7.69;95% conf idence interval:1.78-33.33;P < 0.01) was found to be the only independent risk factor for PUD.CONCLUSION:Patients with acute pancreatitis are liable to suffer from PUD.PUD is associated with severeacute pancreatitis according to the APACHE □ score,and treatment for PUD should be considered for patients with severe acute pancreatitis.
基金This study was approved by the Medical Ethics Committee of Longyan First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University(Approved No.LYREC2023-k016-01).
文摘BACKGROUND There are many risk factors for severe acute pancreatitis(SAP)complicated with acute gastrointestinal injury(AGI),but few reports on the interaction between these risk factors.AIM To analyze the risk factors for SAP complicated with AGI and their interactive effects.METHODS We selected 168 SAP patients admitted to our hospital between December 2019 and June 2022.They were divided into AGI group and non-AGI group according to whether AGI was present.Demographic data and laboratory test data were compared between the two groups.The risk factors for SAP with concomitant AGI were analyzed using multifactorial logistic regression,and an analysis of the interaction of the risk factors was performed.RESULTS The percentage of patients with multiple organ dysfunction syndrome,acute physiological and chronic health scoring system II(APACHE II)score,white blood cell count and creatinine(CRE)level was higher in the AGI group than in the non-AGI group.There was a statistically significant difference between the two groups(P<0.05).Logistic regression analysis indicated that an APACHE II score>15 and CRE>100μmol/L were risk factors for SAP complicating AGI.The interaction index of APACHE II score and CRE level was 3.123.CONCLUSION An APACHE II score>15 and CRE level>100μmol/L are independent risk factors for SAP complicated with AGI,and there is a positive interaction between them.
文摘BACKGROUND Liver transplantation aims to increase the survival of patients with end-stage liver diseases and improve their quality of life.The number of organs available for transplantation is lower than the demand.To provide fair organ distribution,predictive mortality scores have been developed.AIM To compare the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV(APACHE IV),balance of risk(BAR),and model for end-stage liver disease(MELD)scores as predictors of mortality.METHODS Retrospective cohort study,which included 283 adult patients in the postoperative period of deceased donor liver transplantation from 2014 to 2018.RESULTS The transplant recipients were mainly male,with a mean age of 58.1 years.Donors were mostly male,with a mean age of 41.6 years.The median cold ischemia time was 3.1 hours,and the median intensive care unit stay was 5 days.For APACHE IV,a mean of 59.6 was found,BAR 10.7,and MELD 24.2.The 28-day mortality rate was 9.5%,and at 90 days,it was 3.5%.The 28-day mortality prediction for APACHE IV was very good[area under the curve(AUC):0.85,P<0.001,95%CI:0.76-0.94],P<0.001,BAR(AUC:0.70,P<0.001,95%CI:0.58–0.81),and MELD(AUC:0.66,P<0.006,95%CI:0.55-0.78),P<0.008.At 90 days,the data for APACHE IV were very good(AUC:0.80,P<0.001,95%CI:0.71–0.90)and moderate for BAR and MELD,respectively,(AUC:0.66,P<0.004,95%CI:0.55–0.77),(AUC:0.62,P<0.026,95%CI:0.51–0.72).All showed good discrimination between deaths and survivors.As for the best value for liver transplantation,it was significant only for APACHE IV(P<0.001).CONCLUSION The APACHE IV assessment score was more accurate than BAR and MELD in predicting mortality in deceased donor liver transplant recipients.
基金Supported by Health and Birth Control Committee of Liaoning Province,China
文摘BACKGROUND Severe acute pancreatitis(SAP)is a common condition in the intensive care unit(ICU)and has a high mortality.Early evaluation of the severity and prognosis is very important for SAP therapy.Recently,red blood cell distribution(RDW)was associated with mortality of sepsis patients and could be used as a predictor of prognosis.Similarly,RDW may be associated with the prognosis of SAP patients and be used as a prognostic indicator for SAP patients.AIM To investigate the prognostic value of RDW for SAP patients.METHODS We retrospectively enrolled SAP patients admitted to the ICU of the First Affiliated Hospital of China Medical University from June 2015 to June 2017.According to the prognosis at 90 d,SAP patients were divided into a survival group and a non-survival group.RDW was extracted from a routine blood test.Demographic parameters and RDW were recorded and compared between the two groups.The receiver operator characteristic(ROC)curve was constructed and Cox regression analysis was performed to investigate the prognostic value of RDW for SAP patients.RESULTS In this retrospective cohort study,42 SAP patients were enrolled,of whom 22 survived(survival group)and 20 died(non-survival group).The baseline parameters were comparable between the two groups.The coefficient of variation of RDW(RDW-CV),standard deviation of RDW(RDW-SD),Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II(APACHE II)score,and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment(SOFA)score were significantly higher in the non-survival group than in the survival group(P<0.05).The RDW-CV and RDW-SD were significantly correlated with the APACHE II score and SOFA score,respectively.The areas under the ROC curves(AUCs)of RDW-CV and RDW-SD were all greater than those of the APACHE II score and SOFA score,among which,the AUC of RDW-SD was the greatest.The results demonstrated that RDW had better prognostic value for predicting the mortality of SAP patients.When the RDW-SD was greater than 45.5,the sensitivity for predicting prognosis was 77.8%and the specificity was 70.8%.Both RDW-CV and RDW-SD could be used as independent risk factors to predict the mortality of SAP patients in multivariate logistic regression analysis and univariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis,similar to the APACHE II and SOFA scores.CONCLUSION The RDW is greater in the non-surviving SAP patients than in the surviving patients.RDW is significantly correlated with the APACHE II and SOFA scores.RDW has better prognostic value for SAP patients than the APACHE II and SOFA scores and could easily be used by clinicians for the treatment of SAP patients.
基金Supported by Technology Supported Program of Sichuan Province, No. 2011SZ0291the National Natural Science Foundation of China, No. 81072910National Institute for Health Research, United Kingdom
文摘AIM: To undertake a meta-analysis on the value of urinary trypsinogen activation peptide (uTAP) in predicting severity of acute pancreatitis on admission.METHODS: Major databases including Medline, Embase, Science Citation Index Expanded and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials in the Cochrane Library were searched to identify all relevant studies from January 1990 to January 2013. Pooled sensitivity, specificity and the diagnostic odds ratios (DORs) with 95%CI were calculated for each study and were compared to other systems/biomarkers if mentioned within the same study. Summary receiver-operating curves were conducted and the area under the curve (AUC) was evaluated.RESULTS: In total, six studies of uTAP with a cut-off value of 35 nmol/L were included in this meta-analysis. Overall, the pooled sensitivity and specificity of uTAP for predicting severity of acute pancreatitis, at time of admission, was 71% and 75%, respectively (AUC = 0.83, DOR = 8.67, 95%CI: 3.70-20.33). When uTAP was compared with plasma C-reactive protein, the pooled sensitivity, specificity, AUC and DOR were 0.64 vs 0.67, 0.77 vs 0.75, 0.82 vs 0.79 and 6.27 vs 6.32, respectively. Similarly, the pooled sensitivity, specificity, AUC and DOR of uTAP vs Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II within the first 48 h of admission were found to be 0.64 vs 0.69, 0.77 vs 0.61, 0.82 vs 0.73 and 6.27 vs 4.61, respectively.CONCLUSION: uTAP has the potential to act as a stratification marker on admission for differentiating disease severity of acute pancreatitis.
基金Supported by The Wenzhou Municipal Science and Technology Commission Major Projects Funds,No.20090006
文摘AIM: To assess the value of plasma melatonin in predicting acute pancreatitis when combined with the acute physiology and chronic health evaluation?II?(APACHEII) and bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) scoring systems.METHODS: APACHEII and BISAP scores were calculated for 55 patients with acute physiology (AP) in the first 24 h of admission to the hospital. Additionally, morning (6:00 AM) serum melatonin concentrations were measured on the first day after admission. According to the diagnosis and treatment guidelines for acute pancreatitis in China, 42 patients suffered mild AP (MAP). The other 13 patients developed severe AP (SAP). A total of 45 healthy volunteers were used in this study as controls. The ability of melatonin and the APACHEII and BISAP scoring systems to predict SAP was evaluated using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The optimal melatonin cutoff concentration for SAP patients, based on the ROC curve, was used to classify the patients into either a high concentration group (34 cases) or a low concentration group (21 cases). Differences in the incidence of high scores, according to the APACHEII and BISAP scoring systems, were compared between the two groups.RESULTS: The MAP patients had increased melatonin levels compared to the SAP (38.34 ng/L vs 26.77 ng/L) (P = 0.021) and control patients (38.34 ng/L vs 30.73 ng/L) (P = 0.003). There was no significant difference inmelatoninconcentrations between the SAP group and the control group. The accuracy of determining SAP based on the melatonin level, the APACHEII score and the BISAP score was 0.758, 0.872, and 0.906, respectively, according to the ROC curve. A melatonin concentration ≤ 28.74 ng/L was associated with an increased risk of developing SAP. The incidence of high scores (≥ 3) using the BISAP system was significantly higher in patients with low melatonin concentration (≤ 28.74 ng/L) compared to patients with high melatonin concentration (> 28.74 ng/L) (42.9% vs 14.7%, P = 0.02). The incidence of high APACHEII scores (≥ 10) between the two groups was not significantly different.CONCLUSION: The melatonin concentration is closely related to the severity of AP and the BISAP score. Therefore, we can evaluate the severity of disease by measuring the levels of serum melatonin.
文摘Background Severity scoring systems are useful tools for measuring the severity of the disease and its outcome. This pilot study was to verify and compare the prognostic performance of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II （SAPS II） and Glasgow Coma Scale （GCS） in neuro-intensive care unit （N-ICU） patients. Methods A total of 1684 patients consecutively admitted to the N-ICU at Xuanwu Hospital between January 1, 2005 and December 31, 2011 were enrolled in this study. The data-base included admission data, at 24-, 48-, and 72-hour SAPS II and GCS. Repeated measure data analysis of variance, Logistic regression analysis, the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic were used to evaluate the performance. Results There was a significant difference between the SAPS II or GCS score at four time points （F=16.110, P=0.000 or F=8.108, P=0.000）. The SAPS II scores or GCS score at four time points interacted with the outcomes with significant difference （F=116.771, P=0.000 or F=65.316, P=0.000）. Calibration of the SAPS II or GCS score at each time point on all patients was good. The percentage of a risk estimate prediction corresponding to observed mortality was also good. The 72-hour score have the greatest consistency. Discriminations of the SAPS II or GCS score at each time were all satisfactory. The 72-hour score had the greatest discriminative power. The cut-off value was 33 （sensitivity of 85.2% and specificity of 74.3%） and 6 （sensitivity of 70.6% and specificity of 65.0%）. The SAPS II at each time point on all patients showed better calibration, consistency and discrimination than GCS. The binary Logistic regression analysis identified physiological variables, GCS, age, and disease category as significant independent risk factors of death. After the two variables including underlying disease and type of admission were excluded, we built the simplified SAPS II model. A correlation was suggested between the simplified SAPS II score at each time point and outcome, regardless of the diagnosis. Conclusions The GCS scoring system tends to be a little weaker in the predictive power than the SAPS II scoring system in this Chinese cohort of N-ICU patients. The advantage of SAPS II scoring system still exists that it dose not need to take into account the diagnosis or diseases categories, even in the special N-ICU. The simplified SAPS II scoring system is considered a new idea for the estimation of effectiveness.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.81770532Jiangsu Province Medical Foundation for Youth Talents,China,No.QNRC2016901.
文摘BACKGROUND Acute mesenteric venous thrombosis(AMVT)can cause a poor prognosis.Prompt transcatheter thrombolysis(TT)can achieve early mesenteric revascularization.However,irreversible intestinal ischemia still occurs and the mechanism is still unclear.AIM To evaluate the clinical outcomes of and to identify predictive factors for irreversible intestinal ischemia requiring surgical resection in AMVT patients treated by TT.METHODS The records of consecutive patients with AMVT treated by TT from January 2010 to October 2017 were retrospectively analyzed.We compared patients who required resection of irreversible intestinal ischemia to patients who did not require.RESULTS Among 58 patients,prompt TT was carried out 28.5 h after admission.A total of 42(72.4%)patients underwent arteriovenous combined thrombolysis,and 16(27.6%)underwent arterial thrombolysis alone.The overall 30-d mortality rate was 8.6%.Irreversible intestinal ischemia was indicated in 32(55.2%)patients,who had a higher 30-d mortality and a longer in-hospital stay than patients without resection.The significant independent predictors of irreversible intestinal ischemia were Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation(APACHE)II score(odds ratio=2.368,95% confidence interval:1.047-5.357,P=0.038)and leukocytosis(odds ratio=2.058,95% confidence interval:1.085-3.903,P=0.027).Using the receiver operating characteristic curve,the cutoff values of the APACHE II score and leukocytosis for predicting the onset of irreversible intestinal ischemia were calculated to be 8.5 and 12×10^9/L,respectively.CONCLUSION Prompt TT could achieve a favorable outcome in AMVT patients.High APACHE II score and leukocytosis can significantly predict the occurrence of irreversible intestinal ischemia.Therefore,close monitoring of these factors may help with the early identification of patients with irreversible intestinal ischemia,in whom ultimately surgical resection is required,before the initiation of TT.
文摘AIM To evaluate the numbers of different subsets of monocytes and their associations with the values of clinical measures in mild acute pancreatitis(MAP) patients.METHODS The study included one group of 13 healthy controls and another group of 24 patients with new-onset MAP. The numbers of different subsets of monocytes were examined in these two groups of subjects by flow cytometry. The concentrations of plasma interleukin(IL)-10 and IL-12 were determined by cytometric bead array. The acute physiology and chronic health evaluation(APACHE) II scores of individual patients were evaluated, and the levels of plasma C-reactive protein(CRP) as well as the activities of amylase and lipase were measured. RESULTS In comparison with that in the controls, significantly increased numbers of CD14+CD163-, CD14+CD163-MAC387+ M1 monocytes, but significantly reduced numbers of CD14+CD163+IL-10+ M2 monocytes were detected in the MAP patients(P < 0.01 or P < 0.05). Furthermore, significantly higher levels of plasma IL-10 and IL-12 were observed in the MAP patients(P < 0.01 for all). More importantly, the levels of plasma CRP were positively correlated with the numbers of CD14+CD163-(R = 0.5009, P = 0.0127) and CD14+CD163-MAC387+(R = 0.5079, P = 0.0113) M1 monocytes and CD14+CD163+CD115+ M2 monocytes(R = 0.4565, P = 0.0249) in the patients. The APACHE II scores correlated with the numbers of CD14+CD163+CD115+(R = 0.4581, P = 0.0244) monocytes and the levels of plasma IL-10(R = 0.4178, P = 0.0422) in the MAP patients. However, there was no significant association among other measures tested in this population. CONCLUSION Increased numbers of CD14+CD163- and CD14+ CD163-MAC387+ monocytes may contribute to the pathogenesis of MAP, and increased numbers of CD14+CD163+CD115+ monocytes may be a biomarker for evaluating the severity of MAP.
文摘BACKGROUND Laparotomy remains one of the commonest emergency surgical procedures.Early prognostic evaluation would aid in selecting the high-risk patients for an aggressive treatment. Awareness about risks could potentially contribute to the quality of perioperative care and optimum utilization of resources. Portsmouth modification of Physiological and operative severity for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity(P-POSSUM) and the acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ(APACHE-Ⅱ) have been the most widely used scoring systems for emergency laparotomies. It is always better to have a single scoring system to predict outcomes and audit healthcare organizations.AIM To compare the ability of APACHE-Ⅱ and P-POSSUM to predict postoperative morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing emergency laparotomy.METHODS All patients undergoing emergency laparotomy at the Tata Main Hospital,Jamshedpur between December 2013 and November 2014 were included in the study. In this observational study, P-POSSUM and APACHE-Ⅱ scoring were done, and the outcome analysis evaluated with mortality being the primary outcome.RESULTS For P-POSSUM, at a cut off value of 63 to predict mortality using receiver operating characteristics curve analysis, the area under the curve was 0.989; and for APACHE-Ⅱ, at the cut off value of 24, the area under the curve was 0.965.CONCLUSION Because the ability of APACHE-Ⅱ to predict mortality was similar to P-POSSUM and APACHE-Ⅱ does not need scoring for intra-operative findings and histopathology reports, APACHE-Ⅱ can be used pre-operatively to assess the risk in patients undergoing emergency laparotomy. However, for audit purposes,either of the two scoring systems can be used.
