Perceptions of Bark Beetle Landscape Disturbance Effects on Natural Resources and Drinking Water: Assessing Communication and Knowledge Exchange in the Rocky Mountain Region, USA

Widespread changes to forested watersheds affected by the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) epidemic across western North America raised concerns about the effects of this climate-induced disturbance on drinking water and natural resources. Effective communication and knowledge exchange across scientists and stakeholders (i.e., drinking water managers) is essential for constructively responding to such landscape scale disturbances, providing improved adaptive capacity through knowledge sharing. An assessment of stakeholder knowledge levels, information needs, primary concerns, and suggested communication strategies were conducted via an online elicitation survey and World Science Café workshops. Knowledge levels, assessed via a survey of local water managers and experts, were relatively low with approximately half of the respondents reporting little to no knowledge of the effects of mountain pine beetle on drinking water quality and quantity, thereby indicating limited knowledge exchange between scientists and drinking water stakeholders. Increased accessibility and dissemination of research findings pertinent to the mountain pine beetle epidemic’s effects on drinking water quality and quantity is necessary for natural resource management. Recommendations for improved communication among scientists and drinking water stakeholders in particular and forest health in general include dispersal of non-academic research summaries, information exchange through existing media and community resources, demonstration projects, and information clearinghouses. This information provides a better understanding of the challenges, concerns, and first-hand experience of stakeholders of a landscape disturbance issue to apply this knowledge to enhance land management practice and how researchers on this overall project enhanced science communication efforts.

Case Study: Reviewing Methods of Assessing Community Adaptive Capacity for Jefferson County, Texas

With the increased attention on community sustainability and resilience, different poles have developed voicing similarities and/or differences of the two concepts. This study quantifies adaptive capacity of Jefferson County, Texas, one of the coastal communities at the Gulf of Mexico having some of the worse adverse effects. Review of existing methods is presented. Analyses were conducted for the last ten years: from 2005 to 2014. Interestingly, statistical analyses showed that the County’s socio-economic profile or indicators have not changed throughout the ten years, but the environmental, institutional, and infrastructure indicators have. Focusing on one location magnifies the adaptive capacity of Jefferson County, the temporal aspect of both perspectives, and the relevance of existing methods to this community with its peculiarities. Future assessments need to be based on primary data collected through participatory engagement of all stakeholders. This calls for attempts to quantify adaptive capacity using the comparatively more challenging deductive reasoning, which would allow for incorporation of more risks and thus higher readiness.

Coastal Vulnerability Assessment of Rapu-Rapu and the West Coast of Albay Province, Philippines

Coastal vulnerability assessment using the Integrated Sensitivity, Exposure, and Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment (ICSEA-C-Change) tool provides a deeper understanding of the potential impacts of climate change on coastal zones. Vulnerability ratings were obtained using rubrics that were presented to the stakeholders during focused group discussions. Derived scores were then averaged and consolidated to come up with the overall vulnerability rating. These ratings were based on the resource and status of coastal habitats’ reliance on near-shore fishing and other quality measures like fisheries ecosystem dependency, population, and water quality of the coastal habitats in the barangays. Ratings resulted in identifying 12 barangays out of 23 that are highly vulnerable to climate change impacts such as waves, storm surges, sea level rise, increase in surface temperature, and extreme rainfall. These are Buenavista and Basicao (Pioduran), Catburawan (Ligao), Tapel, Nagas and Maramba (Oas), Talin-Talin, Pantao, Macabugos, and Tambo (Libon) and Buhatan and Villa Hermosa (Rapu-Rapu). Assessment results were highly influenced by the absence of three major marine habitats, i.e., coral reefs, seagrass/seaweeds, and mangroves in the coastal areas. Likewise, 11 barangays out of 23, which were Marigondon and Malidong (Pioduran), Maonon and Cabarian (Ligao), Badian and Cagmanaba (Oas), Apud and Rawis (Libon), and Galicia, Hamorawon, and Poblacion (Rapu-Rapu) obtained moderate vulnerability scores. This was attributed to the presence of marine habitats that although in poor state, may serve their ecological functioning when properly protected. Highly vulnerable barangays must be prioritized in coastal rehabilitation and disaster risk reduction management planning. Parameters encompassing the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of each barangay must be taken into consideration to reduce potential impacts brought by factors attributed to climate change. Vital information from the assessment will serve as basis for developing strategic plans for improving the climate change adaptation strategies of the local government units.

Climate Change vs Cultural Heritage: An Adaptation Strategy for the Archaeological Site of Ancient Messene

This article examines the effects of climate change on archaeological sites, using as a case study the archaeological site of Ancient Messene in Greece, and proposes an integrated adaptation strategy. In order to determine the site’s most significant risks, a climate data analysis was conducted, taking into account three different climate emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) and two future periods (2031-2060, 2071-2100). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) vulnerability assessment methodology was adopted to assess the vulnerability of the archaeological site to the effects of climate change. This is the first time such a methodology has been followed in Greece. The analysis revealed that the site’s critical hazards are fire, desertification, and flooding. The geographical location of the site in an intensely dry microclimate and the lack of safe and functional electromechanical and road infrastructure increase its vulnerability. The materials of the monuments are indirectly and directly impacted by climate change, whereas the vegetation is negatively impacted by the frequency of extreme events, especially wildfires. Based on the analysis results, a five-axis adaptation strategy was developed.

Gender Perspectives of Vulnerability to Climate Change: A Descriptive Evidence from Farming Households at Ikpayongo Community in Gwer Lga, Benue State, Nigeria

Climate change impact and risks on agricultural livelihood affect women and men disproportionately and often to the disadvantage of women and girls. Consequently, this study assessed gender perspectives of vulnerability to climate change of farming households at Ikpayongo community in Gwer local government area, Benue State, Nigeria using descriptive approach. The study identified a total of 120 male-headed and female-headed farming households across four neighbourhoods and administered structured questionnaire on them using simple random sampling method, while data analysis was done using descriptive statistics. The results indicate lower education and income status among female-headed households, though male-headed households have high household size. Both sexes have relatively equal access to land for farming, however men have large farm size compared to women. The major crops cultivated by men were rice and yam, while women cultivated largely groundnut and cassava. Women are more exposed and sensitive to climate-related hazards such as floods and heat stress due to the location of their farms. The result further shows that males possess better adaptive capacity given their higher incomes, social networks and more access to training/capacity building programmes and credit facilities. The study concludes that female-headed farming households are more vulnerable to climate change and variability than male-headed farming households due to higher exposure and a lower adaptive capacity. Programme and policies to improve women access to credit facilities and relevant training to boost their adaptive capacity and build resilience are highly recommended. This would also limit exposure with attendant reduction in vulnerability.

International Cooperation in Adaptation to Climate Change: Foreign Agendas or Local Necessities?

The paper aims to analyze climate change adaptation projects funded from international cooperation in Veracruz, which is a Mexican state. They used 5 criteria based on international, national and local dimensions as well as their relation to climate adaptation. From this evaluation, they were able to determine that the results were particularly negative. Mostly, because the objectives set by donor countries are scarcely related to the objectives and priorities of recipient countries, in this case developing countries, which are the most vulnerable to climate change. This provides insight into international collaborative projects in developing states and their impact on the socioeconomic, environmental and vulnerable ecosystems.

Young and old forest in the boreal:critical stages of ecosystem dynamics and management under global change

The circumboreal forest encompasses diverse landscape structures, dynamics and forest age distributions determined by their physical setting, and historical and current disturbance regimes. However, due to intensifying forest utilisation, and in certain areas due to increasing natural disturbances, boreal forest age-class structures have changed rapidly, so that the proportion of old forest has substantially declined, while that of young post-harvest and post-natural-disturbance forest proportions have increased. In the future, with a warming climate in certain boreal regions, this trend may further be enhanced due to an increase in natural disturbances and large-scale use of forest biomass to replace fossil-based fuels and products.The major drivers of change of forest age class distributions and structures include the use of clearcut shortrotation harvesting, more frequent and severe natural disturbances due to climate warming in certain regions. The decline in old forest area, and increase in managed young forest lacking natural post-disturbance structural legacies,represent a major transformation in the ecological conditions of the boreal forest beyond historical limits of variability.This may introduce a threat to biodiversity, ecosystem resilience and long-term adaptive capacity of the forest ecosystem.To safeguard boreal forest biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, and to maintain the multiple services provided to societies by this forest biome, it is pivotal to maintain an adequate share and the ecological qualities of young postdisturbance stages, along with mature forest stages with old-growth characteristics. This requires management for natural post-disturbance legacy structures, and innovative use of diverse uneven-aged and continuous cover management approaches to maintain critical late-successional forest structures in landscapes.

Vulnerability of Kenya’s Water Towers to Future Climate Change: An Assessment to Inform Decision Making in Watershed Management

Recent trends show that in the coming decades, Kenya’s natural resources will continue to face significant pressure due to both anthropogenic and natural stressors, and this will have greater negative impacts on socio-economic development including food security and livelihoods. Understanding the impacts of these stressors is an important step to developing coping and adaptation strategies at every level. The Water Towers of Kenya play a critical role in supplying ecosystems services such as water supply, timber and non-timber forest products and regulating services such as climate and water quantity and quality. To assess the vulnerability of the Water Towers to climate change, the study adopted the IPCC AR4 framework that defines vulnerability as a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The historical trends in rainfall indicate that the three Water Towers show a declining rainfall trend during the March-April-May (MAM) main rainy season, while the October-November-December (OND) short rainy season shows an increase. The temperature patterns are consistent with the domain having a common rising trend with a rate in the range of 0.3°C to 0.5°C per decade. Projection analysis considered three emissions scenarios: low-emission (mitigation) scenario (RCP2.6), a medium-level emission scenario (RCP4.5), and a high-emission (business as usual) scenario (RCP8.5). The results of the high-emission scenario show that the annual temperature over the Water Towers could rise by 3.0°C to 3.5°C by the 2050s (2036-2065) and 3.6°C to 4.8°C by the 2070s (2055-2085 results not presented), relative to the baseline period 1970-2000. The findings indicate that exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity vary in magnitude, as well as spatially across the Water Towers. This is reflected in the spatially variable vulnerability index across the Water Towers. Overall vulnerability will increase in the water towers leading to erosion of the resilience of the exposed ecosystems and the communities that rely on ecosystem services these landscapes provide.

Exploratory Analyses for Water Quality of the Gulf of Mexico Basin, Texas, 2005-2014

With the increased demand for more water sources, the issues of water quality have become more important. This study presents exploratory data analyses on water quality issues related to the Gulf of Mexico Basin in Texas for the last decade: 2005-2014. Dissolved oxygen, water temperature, specific conductance, PH, transparency, sampling depth and Enterococci observations for the ten years from 2005 to 2014 were analyzed. Statistical testing showed that the observations followed similar distributions between the years. Thus they were combined for each of the variables. Throughout the ten years transparency, water temperature, specific conductance, and Enterococci showed higher variances. Pair-wise correlations were negligible but they had positive spatial autocorrelation. Sampling was constantly conducted in the four months of February, May, August, and November. Water temperature, dissolved oxygen and Enterococci concentrations varied significantly during these four months. Univariate spatial regressions showed that Enterococci is predicted to increase whereas dissolved oxygen, PH, water temperature, specific conductances were predicted to decrease.

Vulnerability assessment of crop production to climate change across Northwest China during 1995–2014

Crop production vulnerability to climate change in Northwest China depends upon multiple socio-ecological factors.Knowledge regarding the specific indicators and methods suitable for assessing crop production vulnerability is limited that address spatiotemporal variations across large and diverse zones.We propose an integrated assessment framework to quantify the vulnerability of crop production derived from crop yield sensitivity,exposure,and adaptive consequences across 338 counties in Northwest China during 1995–2014.Maps on these indices were generated using climatic and socioeconomic data with spatial mapping method.Different clusters of crop production vulnerability were then identified by a k-means cluster method to assess the heterogeneity of vulnerability at a regional scale.Results show that the vulnerability of crop production in 338 counties varies significantly in both geographical and socioeconomic aspects,specifically,vulnerability indicators are generally higher in Minhe,Menyuan,Hualong,and Ledu,and Xayar had the lowest value of vulnerability.This indicates that adaptation strategies for regional crop production need to focus on several levels,from the improvement of adaptive ability to crop yield fluctuation by promoting irrigation agriculture and optimizing limited water resources in typical arid areas,to agriculture-related financial policies incentivizing the capital investment and technology upgrade of crop production on traditional farming regions.This study provides convincing evidence that the factors related to socioeconomic policies are particularly alarming when a crop’s risk is compared to precipitation fluctuations.We recommend these findings be used to facilitate regional agriculture planning to reduce crop production vulnerability and ensure sustainable food security in specific regions.

Indicator Approach to Assessing Climate Change Vulnerability of Communities in Kenya: A Case Study of Kitui County

Community vulnerability to climate change can be conceptualized as an aggregate of three vulnerability components: exposure to climatic stress, sensitivity to climate stress and adaptive capacity. However, even within similar regions these vulnerability components are spatially differentiated necessitating the understanding of a regions vulnerability pattern before targeting adaptation assistance. This research sought to understand the differentiated vulnerability patterns of communities in Kitui County as well as the existing coping strategies to guide implementation of adaptation assistance. Indicator approach to vulnerability assessment and focus group discussions were used to understand the vulnerability pattern and coping strategies respectively. Results showed a differentiated vulnerability pattern with a west to east gradient across Kitui County. The pattern exhibited less vulnerability scores on the western and central parts and more vulnerability scores on the eastern and northern parts of the County. Existing coping strategies have become inadequate with increasing climate variability, severity and frequency of extreme climate events, which render the communities even more vulnerable. The patterns of vulnerability can guide appropriate targeting of adaptation assistance and in turn lead to improved climate change resilience and community livelihoods.

A Nationwide Approach on Measuring Households’ Resilience by Constructing Climate Resilient Livelihoods Index (CRLI) in Rural Bangladesh

This study developed households’ Climate Resilient Livelihoods Index (CRLI) in Bangladesh. CRLI indicators were selected based on the Adequacy of Human livelihood conditions for Well-being and Development (AHEAD) framework and FAO resilience tools. The study was designed on cross-sectional data through a country-wide primary survey of 26,925 rural households. At first, we performed logistic regression to gauge the significance and intensity of different livelihood indicators on any specific livelihood indicator. Secondly, we scored each household with the set criteria of different livelihoods accessibility, if any households fulfill the set criteria was “scored 1” and if not “scored 0”. After scoring the households, eight different scores for each household were summed up to construct a composite score of “CRLI”. If any household scored 0 - 2 was considered as low resilient, if any household scored 3 - 5 was considered as moderate resilient and if any household scored 6 - 8 was considered as highly resilient. Additionally, we used ArcMap to visualize the percentage of households in districts with different resilience categories. Findings revealed that nationally 1.7% of households were low resilient, 60% of households were moderate resilient and only 11.48% of households were high resilient. More specifically, only 1.7% of households failed to secure any of the climate-resilient livelihood indicators, and only 0.06% of households secured all of them. Findings also revealed that food secured households had better adaptive capacity due to ensuring access to basic services, more financial capabilities, lower dependency ratio, and physical connectivity. In contrast, households with social safety net coverage had food insecurity, less financial ability, higher dependency ratio, lower education, and income sources. Among 64 counties, Cox’s Bazar, Bandarban, Chuadanga, Barguna, Bhola, Patuakhali, Narail, Kurigram, Sunamganj, Jamalpur, and Netrokona were the most vulnerable in terms of low CRLI. On the other hand, more than 25% of high resilient households were located in Dhaka, Gazipur, and Munshiganj counties. These findings would propel the government to devise appropriate steps in terms of more investment in area-specific local communities for enhancing regional resilience.

Species richness and adaptive capacity in animal communities:lessons from China

Climate change is already threatening the long-term viability of many important protected areas, and as globalwarming accelerates this will increase. Lowered water tables, melting permafrost, changing vegetation zones, combinedwith the fragmentary distribution of wilderness areas, will cause a wave of local extinctions as species fail toadapt to changing conditions in time or fail to move as climate zones advance across the face of the continents.Ecologists can predict and even model likely scenarios, but can we do anything to help safeguard valuable biodiversityor must we passively document Earth’s changes and accept these losses? Studies of the extraordinary speciesrichness of the Hengduan Mountains and the Qionglai Mountain ranges of South-West China and of theChangbaishan Mountains in North-East China give us some optimism. This paper provides an explanation for thehigh species richness in these ranges and identifies design principles that can be used in the selection of protectedareas or in the revision of existing protected area boundaries to enhance their ecological resilience and allow themto maintain higher levels of biological diversity under conditions of climate change or other disturbance.

Adaptive Fitting Capacity Prediction Method for Lithium‑Ion Batteries

Lithium-ion batteries have become the mainstream power source for electric vehicles because of their excellent performance.However,lithium-ion batteries still experience aging and capacity attenuation during usage.It is therefore critical to accu-rately predict battery remaining capacity for increasing battery safety and prolonging battery life.This paper first adopts the metabolism grey algorithm and a simplified electrochemical model to predict battery capacity under different operating conditions.To improve the prediction performance where the capacity changes nonlinearly,a decoupling analysis of battery capacity loss is then conducted based on the simplified electrochemical model.Finally,an adaptive fitting method is devel-oped for capacity prediction,aiming at improving the prediction accuracy at the inflection point of battery capacity diving.The prediction results indicate that the developed adaptive fitting method can achieve high prediction accuracy under battery capacity attenuation at different discharge stages with errors lower than 2.2%.And the battery capacity decay shows linear variation,and the proposed method effectively forecast the inflection point of battery capacity diving.

Vulnerability analysis of smallholder farmers to climate variability and change: an agroecological system-based approach in the Fincha’a sub-basin of the upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia

Background:Ethiopia is frequently cited as a country that is highly vulnerable to climate variability and change.The country’s high vulnerability arises mostly from climate-sensitive agricultural sector that suffers a lot from risks associated with rainfall variability.The vulnerability factors(exposure,sensitivity,and adaptive capacity)of the agricultural livelihoods to climate variability and change differ across agro-ecological systems(AESs).Therefore,the aim of this study was to analyze AES-specific vulnerability of smallholder farmers to climate variability and change in the Fincha’a sub-basin.We surveyed 380 respondents from 4 AESs(highland,midland,wetland,and lowland)randomly selected.Furthermore,focus group discussion and key informant interviews were also performed to supplement and substantiate the quantitative data.Livelihood vulnerability index was employed to analyze the levels of smallholders’agriculture vulnerability to climate variability and change.Data on socioeconomic and biophysical attribute were collected and combined into the indices and vulnerability score was calculated for each agro-ecological system.Results:Considerable variation was observed across the agro-ecological systems in profile,indicator,and the three livelihood vulnerability indices-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change dimensions(exposure,sensitivity,and adaptive capacity)of vulnerability.The lowland AES exhibited higher exposure,low adaptive capacity,and high vulnerability,while the midland AES demonstrated lower exposure,higher adaptive capacity,and lower vulnerability.The wetland and highland AESs scored intermediate results.Conclusion:Our results suggest that resilience-building adaptation strategies are vital to reduce the vulnerability of smallholder farmers.The measures taken should consider site-specific agro-ecological system requirements to reduce the vulnerability of smallholder mixed crop-livestock agriculture system.Since the approach based on the long-term realization of the community,any strategy designed based on such assessments is applicable to local condition.

The Dynamic Knowledge Loop:Inter- and Transdisciplinary Cooperation and Adaptation of Climate Change Knowledge

The‘‘dynamic knowledge loop’’explores processes of knowledge generation,knowledge exchange,and social learning in inter-and transdisciplinary cooperation and relates them to adaptive capacity.Adaptive capacity building can reduce vulnerabilities and enhance the resilience of urban regions towards the impacts of climate change.We use a mix of empirical methods and apply the dynamic knowledge loop as an innovative analytical tool.The added value of inter-and transdisciplinary cooperation concerning knowledge generation and facilitation of social learning is discussed by applying the dynamic knowledge loop to research about a scenario-planning process and a participatory mapping exercise in the urban region of Rostock,Germany.The results demonstrate that the scenario planning process allowed for a consideration of complex interrelations that have the potential for an integration of different influences,perspectives,and knowledge forms.Scenario planning facilitated social learning by creating a platform for integration and exchange of different epistemologies and for considering alternative futures.The participatory mapping exercise demonstrated the scientific value of the integration of local knowledge as well.Building upon these results,we stress the importance of knowledge generation,knowledge exchange,and social learning to build up adaptive capacity through different forms of cooperation between science and practice.

Rural households’ livelihood vulnerability to climate variability and extremes: a livelihood zone-based approach in the Northeastern Highlands of Ethiopia

Background:The adverse effects of climate variability and extremes exert increasing pressure on rural farm households whose livelihoods are dependent on nature.However,integrated and area-specific vulnerability assessments in Ethiopia in general and the study area,in particular,are scarce and insufficient for policy implications.Therefore,this study aims to quantify,map,classify,and prioritize the level of vulnerability in terms of the components of exposure,sensitivity,and adaptive capacity in the Northeastern Highlands of Ethiopia.The study area is divided into six livelihood zones,namely,Abay-Beshilo Basin(ABB),South Wollo and Oromia eastern lowland sorghum and cattle(SWS),Chefa Valley(CHV),Meher-Belg,Belg,and Meher.A total of 361 sample households were selected using proportional probability sampling techniques.Survey questionnaire,key informant interview,and focus group discussions were used to collect the necessary data.Rainfall and temperature data were also used.Following the IPCC’s climate change vulnerability assessment approach,the climate vulnerability index(CVI)framework of Sullivan and Meigh’s model was used to assess the relative vulnerability of livelihoods of rural households.Twenty-four vulnerability indicators were identified for exposure,sensitivity,and adaptive capacity components.In this regard,Iyengar and Sudarshan’s unequal weighting system was applied to assign a weight to indicators.Results:The results revealed that Belg and Meher were found to be the highest exposure livelihood zones to vulnerability with an aggregated value of 0.71.Equally,SWS,ABB,Belg,and CHV livelihood zones showed moderate level of sensitivity to vulnerability with an aggregated value between 0.45 and 0.60.The study noted that livelihood zone of Belg(0.75)was found to be at high level of livelihood vulnerability.ABB(0.57)and CHV(0.45)were at a moderate level of livelihood vulnerability while Meher-Belg(0.22)was the least vulnerable livelihood zone due to a high level of adaptive capacity such as infrastructure,asset accumulation,and social networks Conclusion:It was identified that disparities of livelihood vulnerability levels of rural households were detected across the study livelihood zones due to differences in the interaction of exposure,sensitivity,and adaptive capacity components.The highest levels of exposure and sensitivity combined with low level of adaptive capacity have increased households’livelihood vulnerability.More importantly,the biophysical and socioeconomic sensitivity to livelihood vulnerability were exacerbated by slope/topography,soil erodibility,and population pressure.Therefore,designing livelihood zone-based identifiable adaptation strategies are essential to reduce the exposure and sensitivity of crop-livestock mixed agricultural systems to climate calamity.

Is there a need for new kitchen design?Assessing the adaptative capacity of space to enable circularity in multiresidential buildings

This paper aims to contribute to the development of spatial criteria for adaptive capacity,which is identified as one important factor for the transition towards more circular housing design.The paper focuses on the kitchen,as an important function of the home which is connected to large resource flows and is exposed to frequent renovations and replacements.This paper identifies spatial characteristics of the kitchen and evaluates their potential to accommodate circular solutions focusing on adaptive capacity.As a first step,previous literature on the spatial characteristics of kitchens and indicators that support adaptability is reviewed.These are then used to develop an analytical framework to assess the adaptive capacity and circularity potential of 3624 kitchens in contemporary Swedish apartments.A qualitative approach in combination with quantitative methods is employed to analyse the selected sample.The main contributions of this paper include its spatial analytical framework,its descriptive presentation of contemporary kitchen and apartment designs,and its adaptive capacity assessment of the studied kitchens.The results point out that although the overcapacity of the floor area of kitchens and apartments can have significance for adaptability,it is not the only determinative spatial characteristics.The windows’location and distribution,the number of door openings and traffic zones,the shafts’location and accessibility from multiple rooms,the room typology and the kitchen typology can improve the adaptive capacity and circularity potential of kitchens and dwellings.The findings show that in contemporary floorplans advantageous design solutions connected to the identified spatial characteristics are not applied in a systematic way.Further research is necessary to define the exact measures of the individual spatial characteristics and their combined application in multiresidential floorplan design.