Can Adaptive Observations Improve Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts?

In order to investigate whether adaptive observations can improve tropical cyclone （TC） intensity forecasts,observing system simulation experiments （OSSEs） were conducted for 20 TC cases originating in the western North Pacific during the 2010 season according to the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation （CNOP） sensitivity,using the fifth version of the PSU/NCAR mesoscale model （MM5） and its 3DVAR assimilation system.A new intensity index was defined as the sum of the number of grid points within an allocated square centered at the corresponding forecast TC central position,that satisfy constraints associated with the Sea Level Pressure （SLP）,near-surface horizontal wind speed,and accumulated convective precipitation.The higher the index value is,the more intense the TC is.The impacts of the CNOP sensitivity on the intensity forecast were then estimated.The OSSE results showed that for 15 of the 20 cases there were improvements,with reductions of forecast errors in the range of 0.12％-8.59％,which were much less than in track forecasts.The indication,therefore,is that the CNOP sensitivity has a generally positive effect on TC intensity forecasts,but only to a certain degree.We conclude that factors such as the use of a coupled model,or better initialization of the TC vortex,are more important for an accurate TC intensity forecast.

Ensemble Transform Sensitivity Method for Adaptive Observations

The Ensemble Transform（ET） method has been shown to be useful in providing guidance for adaptive observation deployment.It predicts forecast error variance reduction for each possible deployment using its corresponding transformation matrix in an ensemble subspace.In this paper,a new ET-based sensitivity（ETS） method,which calculates the gradient of forecast error variance reduction in terms of analysis error variance reduction,is proposed to specify regions for possible adaptive observations.ETS is a first order approximation of the ET;it requires just one calculation of a transformation matrix,increasing computational efficiency（60%-80%reduction in computational cost）.An explicit mathematical formulation of the ETS gradient is derived and described.Both the ET and ETS methods are applied to the Hurricane Irene（2011） case and a heavy rainfall case for comparison.The numerical results imply that the sensitive areas estimated by the ETS and ET are similar.However,ETS is much more efficient,particularly when the resolution is higher and the number of ensemble members is larger.

Comparison of Adaptive Simulation Observation Experiments of the Heavy Rainfall in South China and Sichuan Basin

This study examines the effectiveness of adaptive observation experiments using the ensemble transformation sensitivity(ETS) method to improve precipitation forecasts during heavy rainfall events in South China and the Sichuan Basin. High-resolution numerical models are employed to simulate adaptive observations. By identifying the sensitive areas of key weather system positions 42 hours before heavy rainfall events, the adaptive observations improve the prediction of jet streams, strong winds, and shear lines, which are essential for accurate heavy rainfall forecasting. This improvement is reflected in both the precipitation structure and location accuracy within the verification region. In South China, targeted observations enhance rainfall predictions by improving water vapor transport. In the Sichuan Basin, adaptive observations refine water vapor transport and adjust vortex dynamics. This research highlights the importance of accurately predicting shear lines and jet streams for forecasting heavy rainfall in these areas. Overall, this study found that adaptive observation enhances the precipitation forecast skills of the structure and location for heavy rainfall in South China and the Sichuan Basin, emphasizing their potential utility in operational numerical weather prediction.

ROBUST FAULT DIAGNOSIS FOR HELICOPTER FCS BASED ON LINEAR PARAMETERVARYING ADAPTIVE OBSERVER

Based on the linear parameter-varying （LPV） adaptive observer, the robust fault diagnosis for a class of LPV systems with external disturbances is studied. Since the flight control system （FCS） is nonlinear and time-varying, the LPV technique is used for FCS. And then the adaptive fault estimation algorithm based on the LPV adaptive observer is proposed to estimate the fault. To minimize the effect of disturbances on the fault estimation, the H~ robust performance index is introduced to design the LPV adaptive fault diagnosis observer and the fault estimation algorithm. The result shows that the method has good estimation performance and is robust to external disturbances. The design method is presented in terms of linear matrix inequalities （LMIs）. Finally, a helicopter LPV FCS model with the actuator fault is used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

A Comparison Study of the Contributions of Additional Observations in the Sensitive Regions Identified by CNOP and FSV to Reducing Forecast Error Variance for the Typhoon Morakot

The sensitive regions of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations (CNOPs) and the first singular vector (FSV) for a northwest Pacific typhoon case are reported in this paper. A large number of probes have been designed in the above regions and the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) techniques are utilized to examine which approach can locate more appropriate regions for typhoon adaptive observations. The results show that, in general, the majority of the probes in the sensitive regions of CNOPs can reduce more forecast error variance than the probes in the sensitive regions of FSV. This implies that adaptive observations in the sensitive regions of CNOPs are more effective than in the sensitive regions of FSV. Furthermore, the reduction of the forecast error variance obtained by the best probe identified by CNOPs is twice the reduction of the forecast error variance obtained by FSV. This implies that dropping sondes, which is the best probe identified by CNOPs, can improve the forecast more than the best probe identified by FSV. These results indicate that the sensitive regions identified by CNOPs are more appropriate for adaptive observations than those identified by FSV.

Model-driven full system dynamics estimation of PMSM-driven chain shell magazine

Based on the system dynamic model, a full system dynamics estimation method is proposed for a chain shell magazine driven by a permanent magnet synchronous motor(PMSM). An adaptive extended state observer(AESO) is proposed to estimate the unmeasured states and disturbance, in which the model parameters are adjusted in real time. Theoretical analysis shows that the estimation errors of the disturbances and unmeasured states converge exponentially to zero, and the parameter estimation error can be obtained from the extended state. Then, based on the extended state of the AESO, a novel parameter estimation law is designed. Due to the convergence of AESO, the novel parameter estimation law is insensitive to controllers and excitation signal. Under persistent excitation(PE) condition, the estimated parameters will converge to a compact set around the actual parameter value. Without PE signal, the estimated parameters will converge to zero for the extended state. Simulation and experimental results show that the proposed method can accurately estimate the unmeasured states and disturbance of the chain shell magazine, and the estimated parameters will converge to the actual value without strictly continuous PE signals.

Observer Based Control for a Class of Systems with Output Deadzone Nonlinearity

In this paper, a combination of model based adaptive design along with adaptive linear output feedback controller is used to compensate for robotic manipulator with output deadzone nonlinearity. The deadzone dynamics are utilized to adaptively estimate the deadzone parameter and a switching function is designed to eliminate the error produced in the adaptive observer dynamics. The overall design of the closed loop system ensures stability in the BIBO criterion.

Adjoint-based Sensitivity Analysis of a Mesoscale Low on the Mei-yu Front and Its Implications for Adaptive Observation

An adjoint sensitivity analysis of one mesoscale low on the mei-yu Front is presented in this paper. The sensitivity gradient of simulation error dry energy with respect to initial analysis is calculated. And after verifying the ability of a tangent linear and adjoint model to describe small perturbations in the nonlinear model, the sensitivity gradient analysis is implemented in detail. The sensitivity gradient with respect to different physical fields are not uniform in intensity, simulation error is most sensitive to the vapor mixed ratio. The localization and consistency are obvious characters of horizontal distribution of the sensitivity gradient, which is useful for the practical implementation of adaptive observation. The sensitivity region tilts to the northwest with height increasing; the singular vector calculation proves that this tilting characterizes a quick-growing structure, which denotes that using the leading singular vectors to decide the adaptive observation region is proper. When connected with simulation of a mesoscale low on the mei-yu Front, the sensitivity gradient has the following physical characters： the obvious sensitive region is mesoscale, concentrated in the middle-upper troposphere, and locates around the key system; and the sensitivity gradient of different physical fields correlates dynamically.

H_∞tracking design for a class of decentralized nonlinear systems via fuzzy adaptive observer

A novel H∞ tracking-based decentralized indirect adaptive output feedback fuzzy controller for a class of uncertain large-scale nonlinear systems is developed. By virtue of the proper filtering of the observation error dynamics, the observer-based decentralized indirect adaptive fuzzy control scheme is presented for a class of large-scale nonlinear systems using the combination of H∞ tracking technique, a fuzzy adaptive observer and fuzzy inference systems. The output feedback and adaptation mechanisms are both robust and implementable indeed owing to their freedom from the unavailable observation error vector. All the signals of the closed-loop largescale system are guaranteed to stay uniformly bounded and the output errors take on H∞ tracking performance. Simulation results substantiate the effectiveness of the proposed scheme.

Adaptive Observer Based Backstepping Controller Design for Dynamic Ship Positioning

Modified adaptive observer based backstepping control system for dynamic positioning of ship is proposed. As an improvement, the adaptive observer takes the first-order wave frequency model and the bias term which represent the slowly varying environmental disturbances and the unmodeled dynamics. Thus, the wave-frequency motions are filtered out, and only the reconstructed low-frequency motions are sent as inputs of the controller. Furthermore, as the ship dynamics parameters are unknown, the adaptive estimation law is designed for both the unknown ship dynamics and the unmeasured state variables. Based on the estimated states and parameters, backstepping controller considering the integral action is designed. Global exponential stability （GES） for the total system is proved using Lyapunov direct method. Simulation results show a good performance of the observer and control system.

A novel robust proportional-integral (PI) adaptive observer design for chaos synchronization

In this paper, chaos synchronization in the presence of parameter uncertainty, observer gain perturbation and exogenous input disturbance is considered. A nonlinear non-fragile proportional-integral （PI） adaptive observer is designed for the synchronization of chaotic systems; its stability conditions based on the Lyapunov technique are derived. The observer proportional and integral gains, by converting the conditions into linear matrix inequality （LMI）, are optimally selected from solutions that satisfy the observer stability conditions such that the effect of disturbance on the synchronization error becomes minimized. To show the effectiveness of the proposed method, simulation results for the synchronization of a Lorenz chaotic system with unknown parameters in the presence of an exogenous input disturbance and abrupt gain perturbation are reported.

Robust Adaptive Gain Higher Order Sliding Mode Observer Based Control-constrained Nonlinear Model Predictive Control for Spacecraft Formation Flying

This work deals with the development of a decentralized optimal control algorithm, along with a robust observer,for the relative motion control of spacecraft in leader-follower based formation. An adaptive gain higher order sliding mode observer has been proposed to estimate the velocity as well as unmeasured disturbances from the noisy position measurements.A differentiator structure containing the Lipschitz constant and Lebesgue measurable control input, is utilized for obtaining the estimates. Adaptive tuning algorithms are derived based on Lyapunov stability theory, for updating the observer gains,which will give enough flexibility in the choice of initial estimates.Moreover, it may help to cope with unexpected state jerks. The trajectory tracking problem is formulated as a finite horizon optimal control problem, which is solved online. The control constraints are incorporated by using a nonquadratic performance functional. An adaptive update law has been derived for tuning the step size in the optimization algorithm, which may help to improve the convergence speed. Moreover, it is an attractive alternative to the heuristic choice of step size for diverse operating conditions. The disturbance as well as state estimates from the higher order sliding mode observer are utilized by the plant output prediction model, which will improve the overall performance of the controller. The nonlinear dynamics defined in leader fixed Euler-Hill frame has been considered for the present work and the reference trajectories are generated using Hill-Clohessy-Wiltshire equations of unperturbed motion. The simulation results based on rigorous perturbation analysis are presented to confirm the robustness of the proposed approach.

Adaptive backstepping control for levitation system with load uncertainties and external disturbances

To explore the precise dynamic response of the levitation system with active controller, a maglev guide way-electromagnet-air spring-cabin coupled model is derived firstly. Based on the mathematical model, it shows that the inherent nonlinearity, inner coupling, misalignments between the sensors and actuators, load uncertainties and external disturbances are the main issues that should be solved in engineering. Under the assumptions that the loads and external disturbance are measurable, the backstepping module controller developed in this work can tackle the above problems effectively. In reality, the load is uncertain due to the additions of luggage and passengers, which will degrade the dynamic performance. A load estimation algorithm is introduced to track the actual load asymptotically and eliminate its influence by tuning the parameters of controller online. Furthermore,considering the external disturbances generated by crosswind, pulling motor and air springs, the extended state observer is employed to estimate and suppress the external disturbance. Finally, results of numerical simulations illustrating closed-loop performance are provided.

Assimilating temperature and salinity profiles using Ensemble Kalman Filter with an adaptive observation error and T-S constraint

Temperature （T） and salinity （S） profiles from conductivity-temperature-depth data collected during the Northern South China Sea Open Cruise from August 16 to September 13, 2008 are assimilated using Ensemble Kalman Filter （EnKF）. An adaptive observational error strategy is used to prevent filter from diverging. In the meantime, aiming at the limited improvement in some sites caused by the T and S biases in the model, a T-S constraint scheme is adopted to improve the assimilation performance, where T and S are separately updated at these locations. Validation is performed by comparing assimilated outputs with independent in situ data （satellite remote sensing sea level anomaly （SLA）, the OSCAR velocity product and shipboard ADCP）. The results show that the new EnKF assimilation scheme can significantly reduce the root mean square error （RMSE） of oceanic T and S compared with the control run and traditional EnKF. The system can also improve the simulation of circulations and SLA.

Actuator fault diagnosis of time-delay systems based on adaptive observer

A novel approach for the actuator fault diagnosis of time-delay systems is presented by using an adaptive observer technique. Systems without model uncertainty are initially considered, followed by a discussion of a general situation where the system is subjected to either model uncertainty or external disturbance. An adaptive diagnostic algorithm is developed to diagnose the fault, and a modified version is proposed for general system to improve robustness. The selection of the threshold for fault detection is also discussed. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed method.

Adaptive Observer-Based Fault Estimate for Nonlinear Systems

An approach for adaptive observer-based fault estimate for nonlinear system is proposed.H-infinity theory is applied to analyzing the design method and stable conditions of the adaptive observer, from which both system state and fault can be estimated. It is proved that the fault estimate error is related to the given H-infinity track performance indexes,as well as to the changing rate of the fault and the Lipschitz constant of the nonlinear item.The design steps of the adaptive observer are proposed.The simulation results show that the observer has good performance for fault estimate even when the system includes nonlinear terms, which confirms the effectiveness of the method.

Sensor fault diagnosis of time-delay systems based on adaptive observer

Presents a novel approach for the sensor fault diagnosis of time-delay systems by using an adaptive observer technique. The sensor tault is modeled as an additive perturbation described by a time varying function. Systems without model uncertainty are initially considered, followed by a discussion of a general situation where the system is subjected to either model uncertainty or external disturbance. An adaptive diagnostic algorithm is developed to diagnose the fault, and a modified version is proposed for general system to improve robusiness. The stability of fault diagnosis system is proved. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed method.

AN IMPACT STUDY OF A NEW TYPE OF DATA OF ADAPTIVE OR TARGETING OBSERVATION ON TYPHOON FORECAST

There was a new concept of ‘adaptive or targeting observation’ in recent years, which is anadditional and targeting observation based on the existing and fixed observing network for the atmosphere on theimpacted region. Dropsonde is one of the important observing instruments in the adaptive or targetingobservation. In this paper, GRAPES, the next generation of numerical weather prediction system of China hasbeen used. The impacts on the typhoon Dujuan (No.200315) forecast in experiments with dropsonde have beenstudied and experiments on sensitivity have also been done. It was found that the forecasts of the elements havebeen improved obviously with the use of dropsonde, such as the path, the center location, and the intensity oftyphoon. It was also found in the sensitivity studies that the setting of deviation structure also has obviousimpacts on the forecast for typhoons. It is not true that the simulation is better when the proportion of the data ofdropsonde is larger in the course to modify the background.

An adaptive load torque observer using hyperstability for PMSM servo system

An adaptive load torque observer is presented to compensate the torque ripple in PMSM servo system. A simple adaptive scheme is derived using Popov ＇ s hyperstability theory. The torque ripple detected by the observer is compensated by a feed forwarding equivalent current which gives fast response. The noisy current information is exempt from the observer to avoid its deterioration to the quality of the observer. The speed measurement delay is considered by using observed speed sinee the instantaneous velocity can＇t be estimated precisely at low speed because of too few position pulses from the absolute encoder during one time interval. Simulation and experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method can improve the dynamic performance of PMSM servo system satisfyingly.

Integral Event-Triggered Attack-Resilient Control of Aircraft-on-Ground Synergistic Turning System With Uncertain Tire Cornering Stiffness

This article proposes an integral-based event-triggered attack-resilient control method for the aircraft-on-ground(AoG) synergistic turning system with uncertain tire cornering stiffness under stochastic deception attacks. First, a novel AoG synergistic turning model is established with synergistic reverse steering of the front and main wheels to decrease the steering angle of the AoG fuselage, thus reducing the steady-state error when it follows a path with some large curvature. Considering that the tire cornering stiffness of the front and main wheels vary during steering, a dynamical observer is designed to adaptively identify them and estimate the system state at the same time.Then, an integral-based event-triggered mechanism(I-ETM) is synthesized to reduce the transmission frequency at the observerto-controller end, where stochastic deception attacks may occur at any time with a stochastic probability. Moreover, an attackresilient controller is designed to guarantee that the closed-loop system is robust L2-stable under stochastic attacks and external disturbances. A co-design method is provided to get feasible solutions for the observer, controller, and I-ETM simultaneously. An optimization program is further presented to make a tradeoff between the robustness of the control scheme and the saving of communication resources. Finally, the low-and high-probability stochastic deception attacks are considered in the simulations. The results have illustrated that the AoG synergistic turning system with the proposed control method follows a path with some large curvature well under stochastic deception attacks. Furthermore,compared with the static event-triggered mechanisms, the proposed I-ETM has demonstrated its superiority in saving communication resources.