National Breast Cancer Mortality and Incidence Rates According to the Human Development Index: An Ecological Study

Background: This study aimed to identify the role of human development index (HDI) in the incidence and mortality rates of breast cancer (BC) worldwide. Methods: Data on the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of BC for 184 countries were obtained from the GLOBOCAN. Data about the HDI and other indices were obtained from the World Bank Report 2013. Linear regression model was used for assessment the effect of HDI on BC occurrence rates. Results: In 2012, BCs were estimated to have affected a total of 1,671,149 individuals (crude rate: 47.8 per 100,000 individuals), and caused 521,907 deaths worldwide (crude rate: 14.7 per 100,000 individuals). Nearly half of total female BC cases (46.3%) with the highest risk of incidence (age-standardized Rate (ASR): 128 per 100,000) had occurred in very high HDI regions. The most proportion of the mortality burden was in low HDI and medium HDI areas. Linear regression analyses showed a direct significant correlation between the incidence of BC and HDI at the global level (B = 104.5, P < 0.001). The mortality rate of BC was not significantly associated with HDI (B = 3.26, P = 0.160). Conclusion: Our study showed that the burden of female BC is enormous in very high HDI and low HID regions. Targeted interventions have the ability to reduce this number significantly through resource-dependent interventions. Moreover, further reductions in mortality could be brought about by increasing access to curative treatment for patients with BC.

Knee Arthroplasty Incidence Rate vs. Revision of Knee Arthroplasty and Its Associated Comorbidities in Colombia

Introduction: Total knee arthroplasty (TKA) has been established as a transformative solution in the treatment of advanced degenerative diseases of the knee, such as osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, and posttraumatic arthritis. In this sense, TKA surgery, which seeks to replace the damaged joint with prosthetic components, has proven to be highly effective in relieving pain, improving joint function, and, ultimately, significantly increasing patients’ quality of life. The present study describes the TKA and revision knee arthroplasty (RKA) rates and, identifies the associated co morbidities in the Colombian context. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was carried out. It describes demographic and clinical characteristics between two groups of patients, TKA or RKA, and its association with mortality at 30 days, 90 days, or one year after the intervention. Results: The incidence rate of the population undergoing TKA was approximately 11.71 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. Furthermore, the incidence rate for revision knee arthroplasty (RKA) procedures in the same period was around 0.96 per 100,000 inhabitants. In both groups at 30 days postoperatively, a total mortality rate of 0.09%was recorded. When the follow-up was extended to 90 days, it increased to 0.15%;at one year postoperatively, it rose to 0.88%. Conclusion: Mortality after surgery was low in Colombia in 2019. Although RKA is a beneficial procedure, in certain circumstances, it was noted that it carries a higher risk compared to primary TKA. Our results emphasize the importance of careful evaluation of co morbidities and risk factors in patients undergoing these surgical procedures. The application of quality-of-life questionnaires should be considered in future studies on effectiveness and mortality for TKA and RKA in our country.

Trends of incidence and mortality rates of stroke from 1983 to 2000 in Hanzhong rural population

Objective: To explore the trends of incidence and mortality rates of stroke in Hanzhong rural population. Methods: Acting as the WHO MONICA project. Results: The incidence rate of stroke was 152.9/100 000. There was decline trend in male(P<0.05). The mortality rate of stroke was 115.9/100 000. There was no significant decline trend during 18-year period (P<0.05). The incidence and mortality rates of stroke of male were higher than those of female(P<0.05).The incidence and mortality rates were all increased with age(P<0.01). Conclusion: It must stick to the long- term prevention measures to decrease incidence rate, and improve the condition of medical treatment to reduce the mortality rate in rural population.

Incidence and mortality rate of esophageal cancer has decreased during past 40 years in Hebei Province,China

Background： Hebei province is located in North of China with of approximately 6% of whole national population. It is known as a high-risk area for esophageal cancer in China and worldwide. The aim of our study was to estimate the esophageal cancer burden and trend in Hebei Province. Methods： Eight cancer registries in Hebei Province submitted cancer registry data to the Hebei Provincial Cancer Registry Center. All data were qualified and compiled for cancer statistics in 2011. The pooled data were stratified by gender and age group （0, 1-4, 5-9, 10-14...80＋）. Incidence and mortality rates were age-standardized to World Segi＇s population standard and expressed per 100,000 persons. In addition, proportions and cumulative incidence/mortality rates for esophageal cancer were calculated. Esophageal cancer mortality data during the periods 1973-1975, 1990-1992, and 2004-2005 were extracted from the national death surveys. Mortality and incidence rate data from Cixian and Shexian were obtained from population-based cancer registries in each county. Results： The estimated number of newly diagnosed esophageal cancer cases and deaths in 2011 in Hebei Province was 24,318 and 18,226, respectively. The crude incidence rate of esophageal cancer was 33.37/100,000 （males, 42.18/100,000 and females, 24.31/100,000）. The age-standardized rate by world standard population （ASRW） was 28.09/100,000, ranking third among all cancers. The esophageal cancer mortality rate was 25.01/100,000 （males, 31.40/100,000 and females, 18.45/100,000）, ranking third in deaths among all cancers. The mortality rates of esophageal cancer displayed a significant decreasing trend in Hebei Province from 1973-1975 （ASRW =48.69/100,000） to 2004-2005 （ASRW =28.02/100,000）, with a decreased rate of 42.45%. In Cixian, the incidence of esophageal cancer decreased from 250.76/100,000 to 106.74/100,000 in males and from 153.86/100,000 to 75.41/100,000 in females, with annual percentage changes （APC） of 2.13 and 2.16, while the mortality rates declined with an APC of 2.46 for males and 3.10 for females from 1988 to 2011. In Shexian, the incidence rate decreased from 116.90/100,000 to 74.12/100,000 in males and from 46.98/100,000 to 40.64/100,000 in females, while the mortality rates declined, with an APC of 4.89 in males from 2003 to 2011. Conclusions： Although the incidence and mortality rates of esophageal cancer remain high, an obvious decreasing trend has been observed in Hebei Province, as well as in high-risk regions, such as Cixian and Shexian, over the past 40 years.

Analysis of the Incidence and Mortality of Common Malignant Tumors in the Xishan District Residence in 2016

Objective:To analyze the cancer incidence and mortality in xishan district in 2016,and to provide scientific basis for tumor prevention and control.Methods:The 2016 malignant tumor registration report data in xishan district were collected and analyzed,stratified according to gender and age,and the reported incidence of malignant tumor in xishan district was calculated and analyzed(all the following incidence rates belong to the reported incidence),gender,age incidence,bid acceptance rate,mortality and other related indicators.Results:The total registered population of malignant tumor in xishan district in 2016 was 540,494(268,553 males and 271,941 females),and 876 new cases were reported.The incidence rate was 162.07/105,the bid-winning rate was 176.39/105,the world standard rate was 91.16/105,and the cumulative rate(0-74 years old)was 10.44%.The incidence of malignant tumors in males(159.00/105)was lower than that in females(165.11/105).Incidence increases with age,rises sharply and rapidly around age 40,and declines after reaching a peak at age 75.Lung cancer,colorectal cancer,thyroid cancer and female breast cancer are common malignant tumors in the western mountainous areas.It accounts for about 55%of the total number of new malignant tumors.In 2016,653 people died of malignant tumors in xishan district.The mortality rate was 120.82/105(male mortality 151.11/105,female mortality 90.46/105),the bidwinning mortality rate was 43.53/105,and the bidwinning mortality rate was 57.72/105.Lung cancer,liver cancer,colorectal cancer and stomach cancer are the malignant tumors with high mortality,accounting for about 62%of the death.Conclusions:The morbidity and mortality of malignant tumors are relatively high in xishan district,and prevention and control of lung cancer,liver cancer,stomach cancer,colorectal cancer,female breast cancer and thyroid cancer should be emphasized.

Analysis of the Onset and Mortality of Common Malignant Tumors Among Registered Residents in Xishan District in 2016

Objective:To analyse the cancer incidence and mortality in xishan district in 2016,and to provide scientific basis for tumor prevention and control.Methods:The 2016 malignant tumor registration report data in xishan district were collected and analysed,stratified according to gender and age,and the reported incidence of malignant tumor in xishan district was calculated and analysed(all the following incidence rates belong to the reported incidence),gender,age incidence,bid acceptance rate,mortality and other related indicators.Results:The total registered population of malignant tumor in xishan district in 2016 was 540,494(268553 males and 271941 females),and 876 new cases were reported.The incidence rate was 162.07/105,the bid-winning rate was 176.39/105,the world standard rate was 91.16/105,and the cumulative rate(0-74 years old)was 10.44%.The incidence of malignant tumors in males(159.00/105)was lower than that in females(165.11/105).Incidence increases with age,rises sharply and rapidly around age 40,and declines after reaching a peak at age 75.Lung cancer,colorectal cancer,thyroid cancer and female breast cancer are common malignant tumors in the western mountainous areas.It accounts for about 55%of the total number of new malignant tumors.In 2016,653 people died of malignant tumors in xishan district.The mortality rate was 120.82/105(male mortality 151.11/105,female mortality 90.46/105),the bidwinning mortality rate was 43.53/105,and the bidwinning mortality rate was 57.72/105.Lung cancer,liver cancer,colorectal cancer and stomach cancer are the malignant tumors with high mortality,accounting for about 62%of the death.Conclusion:The morbidity and mortality of malignant tumors are relatively high in xishan district,and prevention and control of lung cancer,liver cancer,stomach cancer,colorectal cancer,female breast cancer and thyroid cancer should be emphasized.

2015~2019年中国居民脑卒中发病与死亡特征分析

目的:分析2015~2019年中国居民脑卒中发病、死亡特征及其变化情况。方法:利用2014年在全国31个省级行政区100个县(市、区)建立的中国心脑血管事件登记系统中2015~2019年脑卒中发病和死亡数据,以监测地区常住人口为分母,计算年度脑卒中粗发病率;以第七次全国人口普查数据为标准人口,采用直接标化法计算年龄标化发病率;运用Joinpoint模型分析脑卒中发病率的年度变化百分比(APC)及变化趋势;以年度脑卒中病例的死亡数量(例)与报告发病数量(例)的比值计算死亡发病比。结果:2019年脑卒中粗发病率为468.48/10万,比2015年升高9.41%(APC=2.12%,95%CI:1.43%~2.82%,P_(trend)<0.01),且男性脑卒中粗发病率高于女性,农村高于城市。男性和女性的粗发病率分别升高11.26%(APC=2.53%,95%CI:1.83%~3.24%,P_(trend)<0.01)和7.26%(APC=1.63%,95%CI:0.81%~2.46%,P_(trend)<0.01)。2019年脑卒中年龄标化发病率为523.82/10万,比2015年下降7.47%(APC=-1.72%,95%CI:-3.23%~-0.20%,P_(trend)<0.05),女性脑卒中年龄标化发病率降低9.56%(APC=-2.27%,95%CI:-3.99%~-0.52%,P_(trend)<0.05),城市脑卒中年龄标化发病率降低13.19%(APC=-3.49%,95%CI:-5.34%~-1.61%,P_(trend)<0.05),城市女性脑卒中年龄标化发病率下降幅度(15.82%,APC=-4.27%,95%CI:-6.34%~-2.15%,P_(trend)<0.01)大于城市男性(11.40%,APC=-2.95%,95%CI:-4.56%~-1.31%,P_(trend)<0.05)。随着年龄的增长脑卒中粗发病率升高。相比2015年,2019年45~49岁年龄段的脑卒中粗发病率升高了12.48%(APC=3.18%,95%CI:1.67%~4.72%,P_(trend)<0.01),而80~84岁年龄段则降低15.76%(APC=-4.39%,95%CI:-7.63%~-1.04%,P_(trend)<0.05)。2015~2019年总体脑卒中死亡发病比为0.19。总体死亡发病比的年龄分布呈现“U”型,50~54岁及55~59岁人群的死亡发病比最低(0.10),之后随年龄增长逐渐升高,≥85岁最高(0.45),且各年龄段的城市死亡发病比均低于农村。结论:2015~2019年间监测地区脑卒中发病形势严峻,存在城乡、年龄、性别的差异化分布。未来有必要加强脑卒中防控,并在年龄、地区广泛覆盖等方面进一步优化。

2021年重庆市宫颈癌发病率、死亡率与生存率分析

目的:了解2021年重庆市宫颈癌发病率、死亡率与五年生存率,为开展恶性肿瘤防治提供依据。方法:收集整理2021年重庆市新发宫颈癌发病死亡数据,分析2021年重庆市宫颈癌发病率、标化发病率、死亡率、标化死亡率、年龄别发病率与死亡率。中国人口标化率采用2000年第五次人口普查标准人口构成进行标化,世界人口标化率采用2000年世界人口构成进行标化。不同性别和地区率的比较采用χ^(2)检验。对2016年新报告的宫颈癌病例进行主动和被动生存随访,采用生存分析寿命表法计算观察生存率,采用乘积极限法(Kaplan-Meier)计算平均生存时间,生存率的比较采用Log Rank of Mantel-Cox进行统计检验。结果:2021年重庆市宫颈癌发病率、中国标化发病率、世界标化发病率分别为21.60/10万、14.64/10万与14.71/10万,宫颈癌发病率农村(23.32/10万)高于城市(17.67/10万)(χ^(2)=6.96,P<0.01)。宫颈癌死亡率、中国标化死亡率、世界标化死亡率分别为5.00/10万、2.79/10万与3.02/10万,宫颈癌死亡率农村(5.65/10万)高于城市(3.53/10万)(χ^(2)=5.42,P=0.02)。2021年重庆市宫颈癌五年生存率为64.32%,城市地区宫颈癌五年生存率(76.35%)高于农村地区(59.79%),差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=46.65,P<0.01)。结论:重庆市宫颈癌发病率与死亡率高,五年生存率较低,应重视宫颈癌的防治。

基于JoinPoint回归模型的2000—2019年我国肝癌发病与死亡变化趋势

目的分析2000—2019年我国肝癌发病与死亡趋势,为我国肝癌防治策略的制订提供科学依据。方法收集2000—2019年全球健康数据交换(the Global Health Data Exchange,GHDx)数据库中我国肝癌发病与死亡个案信息,运用JoinPoint回归模型以平均年度变化百分比(average annual percent change,AAPC)和年度变化百分比(annual percent change,APC)分别描述全人群、不同性别及不同年龄肝癌发病与死亡的变化趋势。结果2000—2019年我国肝癌发病和死亡总例数分别为4322652例和4093855例,标化发病率和死亡率分别为11.31/10万和9.68/10万。2000—2019年我国肝癌的发病率呈下降趋势(AAPC=-2.11%),其中2000—2002年和2002—2005年均呈下降趋势,APC分别为-10.55%和-15.45%;2005—2010年和2010—2019年均呈上升趋势,APC分别为0.44%和3.39%;男性和女性人群的发病率均呈下降趋势(AAPC=-1.95%,-2.43%)。2000—2019我国肝癌的死亡率呈下降趋势(AAPC=-2.41%),其中2000—2005年呈下降趋势,APC为-13.52%,2005—2012年和2012—2019年均呈上升趋势,APC分别为0.18%和3.64%;男性和女性人群的死亡率均呈下降趋势(AAPC=-2.34%,-2.60%)。我国肝癌的年龄别发病率及死亡率随着年龄的增长呈不断上升的趋势(AAPC=5.94%,7.10%),其中男性年龄别发病率在10~40岁之间增长较快,80岁之后增长速度有所下降,女性则整体呈上升趋势;男性年龄别死亡率在5~10岁之间增长率较大,女性则随着年龄的增长整体呈上升趋势。结论2000—2019年我国肝癌发病率及死亡率整体呈下降趋势,男性的发病率和死亡率大于女性,且随年龄增长呈上升趋势,男性及老年人群是肝癌重点关注人群。

2014—2018年保山市口腔和咽喉癌发病及死亡情况趋势分析

目的分析了解保山市2014—2018年口腔和咽喉癌的发病和死亡情况。方法从保山市肿瘤登记处选择符合标准的2014—2018年口腔和咽喉癌(除鼻咽癌)发病率与死亡率数据,计算年龄标准化发病率(ASIR)、年龄标准化死亡率(ASMR)和年估计百分比变化(EAPC)来描述保山市口腔和咽喉癌(除鼻咽癌)流行情况及其趋势。结果2014—2018年保山市肿瘤登记地区共收集新发口腔和咽喉癌病例243例,口腔癌死亡病例128例。粗发病率1.96/10万~2.99/10万,APC=10.50%;中国人口标化率(简称中标率)为1.66/10万~2.30/10万,APC=8.34%;世界人口标化率(简称世标率)为1.61/10万~2.17/10万,APC=8.10%,总体均呈上升趋势(t=3.98、5.56、5.51,P<0.05)。2014—2018年保山市口腔和咽喉癌(除鼻咽癌)粗死亡率0.70/10万~1.72/10万,APC=22.59%,中标率0.47/10万~1.31/10万,APC=24.30%,世标率0.53/10万~1.27/10万,APC=21.66%,总体变化趋势差异均无统计学意义(t=2.94、2.54、2.59,P>0.05)。结论2014—2018年保山市口腔癌和咽喉癌(除鼻咽癌)的发病率呈上升趋势,尤其是男性,应针对男性开展相应的健康教育,改变其生活习惯,以此来预防疾病的发生。

重庆市忠县恶性肿瘤流行特征及生存率分析

目的:分析2016年重庆市忠县恶性肿瘤发病、死亡特征及生存率,为开展恶性肿瘤防治提供依据。方法:根据重庆市肿瘤随访登记信息系统报告的忠县新发恶性肿瘤患者随访信息,采用SPSS 25.0统计分析发病率、标化发病率、死亡率、标化死亡率等指标。采用生存分析寿命表法和乘积极限法(Kaplan-Meier)计算观察生存率和平均生存时间,生存率的比较采用logrank of Mantel-Cox进行统计检验。结果:2016年重庆市忠县恶性肿瘤发病率和标化发病率分别为367.63/10万和238.57/10万,恶性肿瘤死亡率和标化死亡率分别为252.90/10万和150.83/10万。对2900例恶性肿瘤患者进行5年随访,随访5年平均生存时间为2.68年,1年、2年、3年、4年、5年生存率分别为50.34%、40.62%、36.21%、33.07%、31.59%,女性恶性肿瘤生存率均高于男性,差异有统计学意义(P<0.001)。结论:重庆市忠县恶性肿瘤的发病率和死亡率较高,生存率较低,应该重视恶性肿瘤的预防、筛查和诊断治疗,加强危险因素和高危人群的控制和干预。

全球及我国宫颈癌流行现状及防治策略

国际癌症研究中心(IARC)通过GLOBOCAN 2020数据库估计了全球185个国家/地区的36种癌症发病率和死亡率。GLOBOCAN 2020数据库显示,宫颈癌无论是发病病例还是死亡病例,均为全球女性第四大肿瘤,宫颈癌对女性健康的危害及防治是全世界面临的重要公共卫生问题。本文将从人群特征、地区分布、时间变化趋势等方面汇总和比较全球及中国宫颈癌的发病和死亡流行现状,并结合目前已报道的人乳头瘤病毒等宫颈癌危险因素、一级预防和二级预防策略,以期为今后宫颈癌的防治策略提供科学线索。

2016年重庆市肺癌发病率、死亡率与生存率分析

目的:分析2016年重庆市肺癌发病率、死亡率与随访五年的生存率,为开展肺癌防治提供依据。方法:对2016年新报告的肺癌患者进行主动和被动随访,随访信息网络直报到重庆市肿瘤随访登记信息系统,采用SPSS 25.0统计分析发病率、标化发病率、死亡率、标化死亡率、生存率等指标。标化发病率与死亡率采用2000年第五次人口普查标准人口构成进行标化。不同性别与地区率的比较采用χ^(2)检验。采用生存分析寿命表法计算观察生存率,采用乘积极限法(Kaplan-Meier)计算平均生存时间,生存率的比较采用Log Rank of Mantel-Cox进行统计检验。结果:2016年重庆市肺癌发病率与标化发病率分别为79.13/10万与44.82/10万,男性发病率(110.33/10万)高于女性(46.77/10万)(χ^(2)=63.018,P<0.001),城市(87.65/10万)高于农村(75.86/10万)(χ^(2)=10.47,P=0.001)。肺癌死亡率与标化死亡率分别为65.96/10万与33.77/10万,男性死亡率(95.40/10万)高于女性(35.95/10万)(χ^(2)=64.43,P<0.001),城市(73.30/10万)高于农村(60.83/10万)(χ^(2)=12.28,P<0.001)。对18842例肺癌患者进行五年的随访,随访五年平均生存时间为2.11(2.07,2.14)年。1年、2年、3年、4年、5年生存率分别为41.84%、33.41%、29.97%、28.04%、26.54%,女性肺癌生存率均高于男性,差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=80.05,P<0.001)。城市肺癌生存率均高于农村,差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=271.78,P<0.001)。结论:重庆市肺癌发病率和死亡率高,生存率较低,重点应针对男性和农村地区开展肺癌的预防、早期筛查和规范的诊断治疗。

2009-2019年沈阳市城区居民甲状腺癌发病、死亡及生存趋势分析

目的:分析2009-2019年沈阳市肿瘤登记地区甲状腺癌的发病、死亡及生存趋势,为甲状腺癌提供防制措施。方法:收集2009-2019年国家级肿瘤监测点沈阳市肿瘤登记地区甲状腺癌的发病和死亡病例。计算甲状腺癌的发病率、死亡率、标化率(中标率、世标率)、截缩率(35~64岁)、累积率(0~74岁)和生存率等指标;Joinpoint3.5.3软件计算发病率、死亡率、生存率年度变化百分比(annual percentage change,APC%);SPSS 23.0统计软件对甲状腺癌男女发病率及死亡率进行χ^(2)检验。结果:2009-2019年沈阳市城区甲状腺癌粗发病率15.15/10万,中标率12.11/10万,世标率10.23/10万,发病率女性高于男性(P<0.01);甲状腺癌粗死亡率0.76/10万,中标率0.43/10万,世标率0.41/10万,死亡率女性高于男性(P<0.01);十年间甲状腺癌发病率男女均呈持续上升趋势(P<0.05),发病顺位男性上升至第5位,女性上升至第3位,死亡顺位男女基本未变;2011-2015年男女甲状腺癌5年观察生存率呈上升趋势,均位居恶性肿瘤生存率首位。结论:2009-2019年沈阳市甲状腺癌发病持续上升,女性高于男性,死亡顺位基本未变;5年观察生存率呈上升趋势,位于恶性肿瘤生存率首位。

2018年广西恶性肿瘤流行情况及疾病负担分析

目的分析2018年广西恶性肿瘤流行情况与疾病负担特征,为广西恶性肿瘤防治提供参考。方法根据广西36个肿瘤登记处上报的2018年肿瘤登记数据,计算2018年广西恶性肿瘤发病率、中国人口年龄标准化发病率(简称中标发病率)、死亡率、中国人口年龄标准化死亡率(简称中标死亡率),分析2018年广西恶性肿瘤发病和死亡情况;计算伤残调整生命年(disability adjusted life years,DALYs)、早死所致的寿命损失年(years of life lost with premature death,YLLs)等指标,评价2018年广西恶性肿瘤的疾病负担。结果2018年广西36个肿瘤登记处共报告新发病例数为55552例,粗发病率为222.83/10万,中标发病率为182.50/10万;共报告死亡例数为35001例,粗死亡率为140.40/10万,中标死亡率为110.13/10万。2018年广西恶性肿瘤合计损失的DALYs为519489.94人年,DALYs率为2083.79/10万。肝癌和乳腺癌分别是男性和女性最常见的恶性肿瘤,肝癌和肺癌所导致的DALYs负担分别位居男性和女性恶性肿瘤DALYs顺位的首位。白血病、女性乳腺癌、肝癌和肺癌分别是儿童(0~14岁)、中青年(15~44岁)、中老年(45~64岁)和老年(65岁及以上)人群中最常见的恶性肿瘤。城市地区肺癌、女性乳腺癌、结直肠癌和前列腺癌的发病率和死亡率均高于农村地区,而农村地区肝癌、子宫颈癌、鼻咽癌和食管癌的发病率和死亡率均高于城市地区。结论广西当前的恶性肿瘤主要包括肝癌、肺癌、女性乳腺癌、结直肠癌和子宫颈癌等。广西居民恶性肿瘤负担仍严重,恶性肿瘤负担地区差异、性别差异及年龄差异明显,恶性肿瘤防控形势严峻。

Global burden of inflammatory bowel disease 1990-2019:A systematic examination of the disease burden and twenty-year forecast

BACKGROUND Inflammatory bowel disease(IBD)is an idiopathic intestinal disease with various levels and trends in different countries and regions.Understanding the current burden and trends of IBD in various geographical locations is essential to establish effective strategies for prevention and treatment.We report the average annual percentage change(AAPC)and estimated annual percentage change(EAPC)in age-standardized rates(ASR)of IBD in different regions based on the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)study from 1990-2019,and the relationships between IBD and the human development index(HDI)and socio-demographic index(SDI).The prevalence trends of IBD were predicted by gender from 2019-2039.AIM To comprehensively investigate IBD data,providing further insights into the management of this chronic disease.METHODS We collected the information on the incidence of IBD from the GBD study from 1990-2019 to calculate the AAPC and EAPC in ASR of IBD in different regions.The relationships between IBD,HDI,and SDI were analyzed.The Nordpred and Bayesian age-period-cohort models were used to predict the prevalence trends of IBD by gender from 2019-2039,and the reliability of the results was validated.RESULTS North America consistently had the highest IBD ASR,while Oceania consistently had the lowest.East Asia had the fastest average annual growth in ASR(2.54%),whereas Central Europe had the fastest decline(1.38%).Countries with a low age-standardized incidence rates in 1990 showed faster growth in IBD while there was no significant correlation in 2019.Additionally,IBD increased faster in countries with a low age-standardized death rates in 1990,whereas the opposite was true in 2019.Analysis of SDI and IBD ASR showed that countries with a high SDI generally had a higher IBD ASR.Finally,the projections showed a declining trend in the incidence of IBD from 2019-2039,but a gradual increase in the number of cases.CONCLUSION As the global population increases and ages,early monitoring and prevention of IBD is important to reduce the disease burden,especially in countries with a high incidence of IBD.

发达与发展中国家癌症发病率与死亡率的比较与分析

目的:分析发达国家与发展中国家的常见癌症发病情况与死亡率,并将中国的癌症现状与之比较,明确我国面临的主要癌症负担类型。方法:各国家常见肿瘤的发病人数、发病率、死亡率及世界标化发病率等数据均来源于GLOBOCAN 2008。结果:发达国家和发展中国家的恶性肿瘤发病第1位均是肺癌,其次发达国家为结直肠癌、乳腺癌、前列腺癌,发展中国家的胃癌、乳腺癌和肝癌;发达国家死亡率最高的分别依次为肺癌、结直肠癌、乳腺癌、前列腺癌,发展中国家为肺癌、肝癌、胃癌、食管癌。中国的肺癌发病率和死亡率均居第1位,胃癌、肝癌发病及死亡率均高于发展中国家和发达国家,乳腺癌的死亡率远低于发达国家亦低于其他发展中国家。预计到2020年,中国新增发病和死亡人数最多的癌症是肺癌、胃癌和肝癌。结论:不同国家的癌谱不同,中国癌谱具有发达国家和发展中国家的双重特征。肺癌、胃癌及肝癌是威胁我国居民健康的主要恶性肿瘤,并且未来十几年其增长速度较快,是我国恶性肿瘤防控的重点。

乳腺癌在中国的流行状况和疾病特征

中国女性乳腺癌发病率和死亡率在全球处于比较低的水平,但呈迅速增长的趋势,尤其是农村地区近10年来上升趋势明显。我国女性乳腺癌的发病率和死亡率的年龄和地区分布具有明显特征,总体生存率估计与发展中国家持平,地区和城乡差异明显。目前,尚缺乏以人群为基础的系统资料以描述女性乳腺癌组织病理学、诊断时期别和分子分型等疾病特征的分布。我国乳腺癌的防控策略应更多地侧重于疾病监测、病因学和生存研究,并采取措施提高农村地区乳腺癌预防、筛查和临床诊治服务能力,缩小城乡之间乳腺癌的生存率差距,遏制农村死亡率上升势头。现就中国女性乳腺癌的发病、死亡和生存概况,以及乳腺癌疾病特征的分布状况作一综述。

天津市白血病20年流行状况调查

目的:对天津市区1981年1月～2000年12月白血病流行情况进行统计分析,了解其流行状况及变化趋势。方法:病例皆按照国际疾病统计分类(ICD-O)进行编码。根据有关年份人口数,按年龄、性别和病例的诊断时间计算发病率、死亡率和死亡发病比等。结果:1981年1月～2000年12月白血病发病和死亡分别为3334和1949例,发病率和死亡率分别为4.71/10万和2.76/10万。20年天津市白血病的发病率变化趋势不明显,但死亡率却呈明显下降的趋势,同时死亡发病比也呈明显下降的趋势。白血病发病的细胞类型以急性粒细胞性白血病(42.9%)最为常见,其次为慢性粒细胞性、急性淋巴细胞性和慢性淋巴细胞性白血病。结论:根据上述流行趋势的研究,提示白血病早期诊断和治疗方法得到明显的改善,同时提示今后应加强白血病病因学的研究。

2002-2012年上海市杨浦区社区人群宫颈癌的发病和生存情况分析

目的阐明上海市杨浦区2002-2012年间宫颈癌的发病率和死亡率。方法系统整理上海市肿瘤登记报告系统2002年1月至2012年12月杨浦区户籍人群宫颈癌发病和死亡资料，应用年均变化百分比（APC）模型分析宫颈癌发病率和死亡率的时间变化趋势，应用Kaplan-Meier模型结合Log-rank检验进行生存分析。采用2000年全国人口普查的标准女性人口年龄构成进行标化。结果2002-2012年间上海市杨浦区宫颈癌总新发患者628例，占同期全区女性恶性肿瘤的2.53％。宫颈癌年均粗发病率为10．80／10^5标化发病率为9．56／10^5。在此期间宫颈癌的粗发病率逐年增长（APC=11．10，P〈0．01），但是标化发病率没有明显改变（APC=1．05，P〉0．05）。以30-49岁女性人群宫颈癌发病率最高。2002—2012年问因宫颈癌死亡256例，占全区女性恶性肿瘤死亡患者的1．57％。宫颈癌年均粗死亡率为4．40／10^5，标化死亡率为2．02／10^5。宫颈癌患者的平均生存时间为8．36年。接受手术治疗患者平均生存时间显著高于未接受手术者（9．22年vs7．06年，P〈0．01）。宫颈癌患者的5年生存率为75．45％，其中手术治疗组5年生存率为84．69％，显著高于非手术组60．89％（P〈0．01）。结论上海市杨浦区户籍女性人群宫颈癌标化发病率和死亡率分别为9．56／10^5和2．02／10^5，手术治疗能显著提高患者的生存期。