Knee Arthroplasty Incidence Rate vs. Revision of Knee Arthroplasty and Its Associated Comorbidities in Colombia

Introduction: Total knee arthroplasty (TKA) has been established as a transformative solution in the treatment of advanced degenerative diseases of the knee, such as osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, and posttraumatic arthritis. In this sense, TKA surgery, which seeks to replace the damaged joint with prosthetic components, has proven to be highly effective in relieving pain, improving joint function, and, ultimately, significantly increasing patients’ quality of life. The present study describes the TKA and revision knee arthroplasty (RKA) rates and, identifies the associated co morbidities in the Colombian context. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was carried out. It describes demographic and clinical characteristics between two groups of patients, TKA or RKA, and its association with mortality at 30 days, 90 days, or one year after the intervention. Results: The incidence rate of the population undergoing TKA was approximately 11.71 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. Furthermore, the incidence rate for revision knee arthroplasty (RKA) procedures in the same period was around 0.96 per 100,000 inhabitants. In both groups at 30 days postoperatively, a total mortality rate of 0.09%was recorded. When the follow-up was extended to 90 days, it increased to 0.15%;at one year postoperatively, it rose to 0.88%. Conclusion: Mortality after surgery was low in Colombia in 2019. Although RKA is a beneficial procedure, in certain circumstances, it was noted that it carries a higher risk compared to primary TKA. Our results emphasize the importance of careful evaluation of co morbidities and risk factors in patients undergoing these surgical procedures. The application of quality-of-life questionnaires should be considered in future studies on effectiveness and mortality for TKA and RKA in our country.

Incidence and mortality rate of esophageal cancer has decreased during past 40 years in Hebei Province,China

Background： Hebei province is located in North of China with of approximately 6% of whole national population. It is known as a high-risk area for esophageal cancer in China and worldwide. The aim of our study was to estimate the esophageal cancer burden and trend in Hebei Province. Methods： Eight cancer registries in Hebei Province submitted cancer registry data to the Hebei Provincial Cancer Registry Center. All data were qualified and compiled for cancer statistics in 2011. The pooled data were stratified by gender and age group （0, 1-4, 5-9, 10-14...80＋）. Incidence and mortality rates were age-standardized to World Segi＇s population standard and expressed per 100,000 persons. In addition, proportions and cumulative incidence/mortality rates for esophageal cancer were calculated. Esophageal cancer mortality data during the periods 1973-1975, 1990-1992, and 2004-2005 were extracted from the national death surveys. Mortality and incidence rate data from Cixian and Shexian were obtained from population-based cancer registries in each county. Results： The estimated number of newly diagnosed esophageal cancer cases and deaths in 2011 in Hebei Province was 24,318 and 18,226, respectively. The crude incidence rate of esophageal cancer was 33.37/100,000 （males, 42.18/100,000 and females, 24.31/100,000）. The age-standardized rate by world standard population （ASRW） was 28.09/100,000, ranking third among all cancers. The esophageal cancer mortality rate was 25.01/100,000 （males, 31.40/100,000 and females, 18.45/100,000）, ranking third in deaths among all cancers. The mortality rates of esophageal cancer displayed a significant decreasing trend in Hebei Province from 1973-1975 （ASRW =48.69/100,000） to 2004-2005 （ASRW =28.02/100,000）, with a decreased rate of 42.45%. In Cixian, the incidence of esophageal cancer decreased from 250.76/100,000 to 106.74/100,000 in males and from 153.86/100,000 to 75.41/100,000 in females, with annual percentage changes （APC） of 2.13 and 2.16, while the mortality rates declined with an APC of 2.46 for males and 3.10 for females from 1988 to 2011. In Shexian, the incidence rate decreased from 116.90/100,000 to 74.12/100,000 in males and from 46.98/100,000 to 40.64/100,000 in females, while the mortality rates declined, with an APC of 4.89 in males from 2003 to 2011. Conclusions： Although the incidence and mortality rates of esophageal cancer remain high, an obvious decreasing trend has been observed in Hebei Province, as well as in high-risk regions, such as Cixian and Shexian, over the past 40 years.

GLOBAL STABILITY OF SIRS EPIDEMIC MODELS WITH A CLASS OF NONLINEAR INCIDENCE RATES AND DISTRIBUTED DELAYS

In this article, we establish the global asymptotic stability of a disease-free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium of an SIRS epidemic model with a class of nonlin- ear incidence rates and distributed delays. By using strict monotonicity of the incidence function and constructing a Lyapunov functional, we obtain sufficient conditions under which the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. When the nonlinear inci- dence rate is a saturated incidence rate, our result provides a new global stability condition for a small rate of immunity loss.

Evaluation and application of a milk antibody ELISA for assessing the prevalence and incidence of bovine tuberculosis in dairy herds in Hubei Province,China

Bovine tuberculosis(bTB)is a chronic zoonotic disease that is endemic in China.Current in-vitro tests for bTB are mainly based on blood assays.Collection of samples results in some stress to the sampled cattle and associated economic losses for the herd owner.This study was designed to investigate the relationship between milk and serum antibody tests for bTB in dairy cows using 85 cows with milk and corresponding blood samples.Totally 4,395 milk samples were used to assesse the apparent(test)prevalence and incidence of bTB using the milk antibody ELISA.The association between levels of bTB milk antibody and milk quality was also evaluated.Milk and serum antibody tests showed a good correlation with a 87.5%(95%CI:61.7%,98.4)positive agreement and 98.7%(95%CI:95.4,99.8)negative agreement.The animal level lactoprevalence ranged from 0.3%(95%CI:0,1.2)to 33.3%(95%CI:26.6,40.6)in different farms and the incidence rate ranged from 0 head/cow-month(95%CI:0,0.02)to 0.04 head/cow-month(95%CI:0.02,0.07).Twenty percent of sampled farms met the criteria for bTB control in China.The prevalence on large-scale farms was lower(p<0.001)than on small farms.The bTB milk antibody levels had a negative correlation with milk yield and a positive correlation with somatic cell count(SCC),milk protein percentage(MPP)and percentage of total solids(TS).According to this research,milk ELISA could be used as a supplement of blood samples to assist in the surveillance for bTB and for alerting control and eradication of bTB.

TWO DIFFERENTIAL INFECTIVITY EPIDEMIC MODELS WITH NONLINEAR INCIDENCE RATE

This paper considers two differential infectivity（DI） epidemic models with a nonlinear incidence rate and constant or varying population size. The models exhibits two equilibria, namely., a disease-free equilibrium O and a unique endemic equilibrium. If the basic reproductive number σ is below unity,O is globally stable and the disease always dies out. If σ〉1, O is unstable and the sufficient conditions for global stability of endemic equilibrium are derived. Moreover,when σ〈 1 ,the local or global asymptotical stability of endemic equilibrium for DI model with constant population size in n-dimensional or two-dimensional space is obtained.

Analysis of the Influence of Operating Room Nursing Care Management on the Incidence Rate of Nosocomial Infection in Orthopedic Surgery Patients

Objective:To analysis the influence of operating room nursing care management on the incidence rate of nosocomial infection in orthopedic surgery patients.Methodology:Fifty six orthopedic surgery patients who admitted into the hospital between January to December 2018 were enrolled into this study and randomly divided into two groups,which were the control group(under general management)and the observation group(under the operating room nursing care management).Further,the incidence rate of nosocomial infections,the incidence rate of irregular nursing care phenomena,the satisfaction score of nursing care management,and the quality of life score were observed and recorded.Result:The incidence rate of nosocomial infection,the incidence rate of irregular nursing care management,the satisfaction score of nursing care management,and the quality of life score of the observation group were compared to that of the control group,and the result showed P<0.05,indicates the statistical significance between the data indicators.Conclusion:The use of operating room nursing care management in patients with orthopedic surgery has shown a significant effect.

Global Dynamics Analysis of a Cholera Transmission Model with General Incidence and Multiple Modes of Infection

This paper develops an SIBR cholera transmission model with general incidence rate. Necessary and sufficient conditions for local and global asymptotic stability of the equilibria are established by Routh Hurwitz criterium, Lyapunov function, and the second additive composite matrix theorem. What is more, exploiting the DED is cover simulation tool, the parameter values of the model are estimated with the 1998-2021 cholera case data in China. Finally, we perform sensitivity analysis for the basic reproduction number to seek for effective interventions for cholera control. .

Stability Analysis of SIQS Epidemic Model with Saturated Incidence Rate

A SIQS epidemic model with saturated incidence rate is studied. Two equilibrium points exist for the system, disease-free and endemic equilibrium. The stability of the disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium exists when the basic reproduction number R0, is less or greater than unity respectively. The global stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibrium is proved using Lyapunov functions and Poincare-Bendixson theorem plus Dulac’s criterion respectively.

Dynamics of a Nonautonomous SIR Model with Time-Varying Impulsive Release and General Nonlinear Incidence Rate in a Polluted Environment

In a polluted environment, considering the biological population infected with a kind of disease and hunted by human beings, we formulate a nonautonomous SIR population-epidemic model with time-varying impulsive release and general nonlinear incidence rate and investigate dynamical behaviors of the model. Under the reasonable assumptions, the sufficient conditions which guarantee the globally attractive of the disease-free periodic solution and the permanence of the infected fish are established, that is, the infected fish dies out if , whereas the disease persists if . To substantiate our theoretical results, extensive numerical simulations are performed for a hypothetical set of parameter values.

Functional Time Series Models to Estimate Future Age-Specific Breast Cancer Incidence Rates for Women in Karachi, Pakistan

Background： Breast cancer is the most common female cancer in Pakistan. The incidence of breast cancer in Pakistan is about 2.5 times higher than that in the neighboring countries India and Iran. In Karachi, the most populated city of Pakistan, the age-standardized rate of breast cancer was 69.1 per 100,000 women during 1998-2002, which is the highest recorded rate in Asia. The carcinoma of breast in Pakistan is an enormous public health concern. In this study, we examined the recent trends of breast cancer incidence rates among the women in Karachi. Methods： We obtained the secondary data of breast cancer incidence from various hospitals. They included Jinnah Hospital, KIRAN （Karachi Institute of Radiotherapy and Nuclear Medicine）, and Civil hospital, where the data were available for the years 2004-2011. A total of 5331 new cases of female breast cancer were registered during this period. We analyzed the data in 5-year age groups 15-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49, 50-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75＋. Nonparametric smoothing were used to obtained age-specific incidence curves, and then the curves are decomposed using principal components analysis to fit FTS （functional time series） model. We then used exponential smoothing statspace models to estimate the forecasts of incidence curve and construct prediction intervals. Results： The breast cancer incidence rates in Karachi increased with age for all available years. The rates increased monotonically and are relatively sharp with the age from 15 years to 50 years and then they show variability after the age of 50 years. 10-year forecasts for the female breast cancer incidence rates in Karachi show that the future rates are expected to remain stable for the age-groups 15-50 years, but they will increase for the females of 50-years and over. Hence in future, the newly diagnosed breast cancer cases in the older women in Karachi are expected to increase. Conclusion： Prediction of age related changes in breast cancer incidence rates will provide useful information for controlling the overall burden of cancer in Pakistan and also serve as a resource for health planning in future research. Moreover, these models will be the most useful for modeling and projecting future trends of other cancers and chronic diseases.

Implication of Reported Viral Hepatitis Incidence Rate Change in Hubei Province, China, between 2004-2010

This study examined the change of reported incidence rate for viral hepatitis in Hubei province, China, between 2004 to 2010 to provide scientific evidence for viral hepatitis control. Reported viral hepatitis infection cases were queried from Centre for Disease Control of Hubei Province, China. The incidence of viral hepatitis A decreased steadily across the study period. Viral hepatitis B composed 85% of the viral hepatitis cases. When reported incidence rates for chronic hepatitis B increased, the rates of acute and unclassified cases dropped from 2005 to 2010. The reported viral hepatitis B incidence rate for males was around 1.5-2 times higher than for females. The average annual percentage change of reported viral hepatitis B incidence rates was 4%. The same index for viral hepatitis C was 28%. The reported viral hepatitis B incidence rate of people under 20 years old declined over the period. This decrease was mainly attributed to the recent implementation of vaccination plan. Reported incidence rate of viral hepatitis E also rose in those years. Having a better understanding on reported incidence rates of the present surveillance system is important for developing strategies for further prevention of viral hepatitis. In addition, the data showed that a surveillance system that differentiates new and former infected cases will be more effective in providing evidence for disease control.

Global Analysis of an SEIR Epidemic Model with Nonlinear Incidence Rates

In this paper,an SEIR model with nonlinear incidence rates are studied.The basic reproduction number R_0 characterizes the disease transmission dynamics: if R_0≤ 1,the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and the disease always dies out,if R_0> 1 then there is a unique endemic equilibrium which is globally asymptotically stable and the disease persists.

National Breast Cancer Mortality and Incidence Rates According to the Human Development Index: An Ecological Study

Background: This study aimed to identify the role of human development index (HDI) in the incidence and mortality rates of breast cancer (BC) worldwide. Methods: Data on the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of BC for 184 countries were obtained from the GLOBOCAN. Data about the HDI and other indices were obtained from the World Bank Report 2013. Linear regression model was used for assessment the effect of HDI on BC occurrence rates. Results: In 2012, BCs were estimated to have affected a total of 1,671,149 individuals (crude rate: 47.8 per 100,000 individuals), and caused 521,907 deaths worldwide (crude rate: 14.7 per 100,000 individuals). Nearly half of total female BC cases (46.3%) with the highest risk of incidence (age-standardized Rate (ASR): 128 per 100,000) had occurred in very high HDI regions. The most proportion of the mortality burden was in low HDI and medium HDI areas. Linear regression analyses showed a direct significant correlation between the incidence of BC and HDI at the global level (B = 104.5, P < 0.001). The mortality rate of BC was not significantly associated with HDI (B = 3.26, P = 0.160). Conclusion: Our study showed that the burden of female BC is enormous in very high HDI and low HID regions. Targeted interventions have the ability to reduce this number significantly through resource-dependent interventions. Moreover, further reductions in mortality could be brought about by increasing access to curative treatment for patients with BC.

Trends of incidence and mortality rates of stroke from 1983 to 2000 in Hanzhong rural population

Objective: To explore the trends of incidence and mortality rates of stroke in Hanzhong rural population. Methods: Acting as the WHO MONICA project. Results: The incidence rate of stroke was 152.9/100 000. There was decline trend in male(P<0.05). The mortality rate of stroke was 115.9/100 000. There was no significant decline trend during 18-year period (P<0.05). The incidence and mortality rates of stroke of male were higher than those of female(P<0.05).The incidence and mortality rates were all increased with age(P<0.01). Conclusion: It must stick to the long- term prevention measures to decrease incidence rate, and improve the condition of medical treatment to reduce the mortality rate in rural population.

Dynamic Analysis for a SIQR Epidemic Model with Specific Nonlinear Incidence Rate

The article investigates a SIQR epidemic model with specific nonlinear incidence rate and stochastic model based on the former, respectively. For deterministic model, we study the existence and stability of the equilibrium points by controlling threshold parameter R0 which determines whether the disease disappears or prevails. Then by using Routh-Hurwitz criteria and constructing suitable Lyapunov function, we get that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R0 or unstable if R0>1. In addition, the endemic equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable in certain region when R0>1. For the corresponding stochastic model, the existence and uniqueness of the global positive solution are discussed and some sufficient conditions for the extinction of the disease and the persistence in the mean are established by defining its related stochastic threshold R0s. Moreover, our analytical results show that the introduction of random fluctuations can suppress disease outbreak. And numerical simulations are used to confirm the theoretical results.

Stability Analysis of an SIR Epidemic Model with Non-Linear Incidence Rate and Treatment

We consider a SIR epidemic model with saturated incidence rate and treatment. We show that if the basic reproduction number, R0 is less than unity and the disease free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable. Moreover, we show that if R0 > 1, the endemic equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable. In the end, we give some numerical results to compare our model with existing model and to show the effect of the treatment term on the model.

A Novel Analysis Approach of Uniform Persistence for an Epidemic Model with Quarantine and Standard Incidence Rate

Inspired by the transmission characteristics of the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19),an epidemic model with quarantine and standard incidence rate is first developed,then a novel analysis approach is proposed for finding the ultimate lower bound of the number of infected individuals,which means that the epidemic is uniformly persistent if the control reproduction number R_(c)>1.This approach can be applied to the related biomat hem at ical models,and some existing works can be improved by using that.In addition,the infection-free equilibrium V^(0)of the model is locally asymptotically stable(LAS)if R_(c)<1 and linearly stable if R_(c)=1;while V^(0)is unstable if R_(c)>1.

Reconstruction of incidence reporting rate for SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant of COVID-19 pandemic in the US

In recent years,advanced regularization techniques have emerged as a powerful tool aimed at stable estimation of infectious disease parameters that are crucial for future projections,prevention,and control.Unlike other system parameters,i.e.,incubation and recovery rates,the case reporting rate,Ψ,and the time-dependent effective reproduction number,R_(e)t,are directly influenced by a large number of factors making it impossible to pre-estimate these parameters in any meaningful way.In this study,we propose a novel iteratively-regularized trust-region optimization algorithm,combined with SuSvIuIvRD compartmental model,for stable reconstruction ofΨand R_(e)t from reported epidemic data on vaccination percentages,incidence cases,and daily deaths.The innovative regularization procedure exploits(and takes full advantage of)a unique structure of the Jacobian and Hessian approximation for the nonlinear observation operator.The proposed inversion method is thoroughly tested with synthetic and real SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant data for different regions in the United States of America from July 9,2021,to November 25,2021.Our study shows that case reporting rate during the Delta wave of COVID-19 pandemic in the US is between 12%and 37%,with most states being in the range from 15%to 25%.This confirms earlier accounts on considerable under-reporting of COVID-19 cases due to the impact of”silent spreaders”and the limitations of testing.

A mathematical model for a disease outbreak considering waningimmunity class with nonlinear incidence and recovery rates

In the spread of infectious diseases,intervention levels play a crucial role in shaping interactions between healthy and infected individuals,leading to a nonlinear transmission process.Additionally,the availability of medical resources limits the recovery rate of infected patients,adding further nonlinear dynamics to the healing process.Our research introduces novelty by combining nonlinear incidence and recovery rates alongside waning immunity in an epidemic model.We present a modified SIRW-type model,examining the epidemic problem with these factors.Through analysis,we explore conditions for non-endemic and co-existing cases based on the basic reproduction ratio.The local stability of equilibria is verified using the Routh-Hurwitz criteria,while global stability is assessed using Lyapunov functions for each equilibrium.Furthermore,we investigate bifurcations around both non-endemic and co-existing equilibria.Numerically,we give some simulations to support our analytical findings.

The effect of the fear factor on the dynamics of an eco-epidemiological system with standard incidence rate

In order to protect endangered prey,ecologists suggest introducing parasites into predators which have achieved the expected goal in practice.Then how to explain the inherent mechanism and validate the effectiveness of this approach theoretically?In response to this question,we propose an eco-epidemiological system with the standard incidence rate and the anti-predator behavior in this paper,where the predator population is infected by parasites.We show the existence and local stability of equilibria for the system,and verify the occurrence of Hopf bifurcation.Theoretical and numerical results suggest that the fear effect reduces the density of the predator population but has no effect on the density of prey population.In addition,the cost of fear may not only break the stability of the equilibrium of the system,but also induce the equilibrium to change from unstable to stable.Based on the theoretical analysis,we confirm that introducing parasites into the predator population is an effective method to protect endangered prey.