Analysis of the Impact of Off-farm Employment of Agricultural Labor on Grain Production in Shandong Province and Henan Province

[Objective] This study aimed to investigate the impact of off-farm employment of agricultural labor on grain production. [Method] Impact of off-farm employment of agricultural labor on grain production was investigated based on path analysis by using data from 200 counties and cities in Shandong Province and Henan Province in 2000 and 2008. [Result] Off-farm employment of agricultural labor affects grain production through agricultural land use patterns, off-farm employment of agricultural labor has negative impacts on grain production through multiple cropping index and positive impacts through the proportion of grain planting area. The positive impacts were greater in 2008. [Conclusion] Prerequisite of the positive impacts of off-farm employment on grain production is the substitution of agricultural mechanization development and agricultural technology advancement for agricultural labor. Orderly land circulation and scale land use should be promoted to avoid the lack of agricultural labor due to off-farm employment.

Demand,Supply and Surplus of Agricultural Labor Force in China

China's economy enjoys the prominent characteristics of a dual structure,with a severe surplus in the agricultural labor force.Scholars in China and overseas have conducted extensive research on the issue of labor surplus and have developed estimates on the size and percentage of surplus labor.The results,however,vary considerably due to the differences in methods and data sources.Based on existing research and using the National Agricultural Costs and Returns Compilation as the data source,this paper proposes that the size of the agricultural surplus labor force is only 8,520,000 persons,accounting for 2.1% of the total rural labor force.

Increasing China's Agricultural Labor Productivity: Comparison and Policy Implications from Major Agrarian Countries

China's low agricultural labor productivity has become the key weakness of its agricultural competitive- ness and sustainable development,and strategies for improving China's agricultural labor productivity lack clear and consistent theory and empirical support.To address this issue,the current study uses the methods of convergence index,correlation coefficient,and nonparametric test,to analyze the characteristics and influencing factors of agricultural labor productivity among 32 major agrarian countries during 1961-2013.This analysis shows that the development gap among countries has been narrowing.The USA takes the leading position among all the countries, while some countries with scarce land like Japan have succeeded in achieving transcendence,and other countries like India have experienced relatively slow speed.The agricultural labor productivity is significantly driven by agricultural labor surplus,agricultural product processing,and agricultural industrial structure.The effects of land resource endowment,agricultural mechanization,and biochemical inputs have been declining and in some cases are no longer even significant.It is therefore necessary to shift attention to marketization,diversification,and high quality,instead of the former focus on agricultural intensification,concentration and large-scale operations,and this shift is probably more closely aligned with current practices.There are more people and less land in China,and the agricultural labor force in China still accounts for nearly 30% of the total population.Considering these national conditions,it is very important to simultaneously improve the efficiency of agricultural production of small farmers and promote the successful urbanization of the agricultural labor force.In the medium and long term,it is imperative to improve the competitiveness of Chinese agriculture by adopting related policy arrangements such as induced agricultural technological innovation,production factor substitution,and multifunctional agriculture development.

Analysis of the coupled relationship between grain yields and agricultural labor changes in China

In this paper we establish a model that expresses the coupled relationship between grain yield and agricultural labor changes in China, and present a preliminary discussion of the coupled processes involved in changes in these factors at the county level. Thus, we develop two coefficients on the basis of county-level statistical data for grain yield and agri- cultural labor for the years 1991,2000, and 2010, namely, the grain-labor elasticity coefficient （GLEC） and the agricultural labor-transfer effect coefficient （ALTEC）. The results of this study show that during the transformation process of agricultural development in China, different kinds of coupled relationships between grain yield and agricultural labor changes co-existed at the same time. For example, between 1991 and 2010, counties characterized by three different coupled modes （i.e., increasing grain yield and decreasing agricultural labor, in- creasing grain yield and agricultural labor, and decreasing grain yield and agricultural labor） account for 48.85%, 29.11%, and 19.74% of the total across the study area, respectively. Interestingly, a coupled relationship between increasing grain yield and decreasing agricul- tural labor is mainly concentrated in the traditional farming areas of China, while a coupled relationship between increasing grain yield and agricultural labor is primarily concentrated in pastoral areas and agro-pastoral ecotones in underdeveloped western China. At the same time, a coupled relationship between decreasing grain yield and agricultural labor is concen- trated in areas that have experienced a rapid development transition in agriculture, especially the developed southeastern coast of China. The results of this study also show that between 1991 and 2010, 1961 counties experienced a decline in the proportion of agricultural labor; of these, 1452 are also characterized by increasing grain yield, 72.38% of the total. This coupled relationship between grain yield and changes in the proportion of agricultural labor shows a stepped fluctuation and has continually strengthened over time. Data show that mean values for the GLEC and ALTEC increased from -0.25 and -2.93 between 1991 and 2000 to -0.16and -1.78 between 2000 and 2010, respectively. These changes in GLEC and ALTEC illus- trate that the influence of agricultural labor changes on increasing grain yields has gradually diminished. Finally, the results of this study reveal that the ＇Hu Huanyong Line＇ is a significant boundary sub-dividing this coupled relationship between grain yield and changes in agricul- tural labor.

Impact of Agricultural Labor Transfer on Agricultural Nonpoint Source Pollution: A Case Study of Jiangxi, China

A large proportion of the rural labor force in China will continue to transfer to non-agricultural sectors in the near future, which will inevitably lead to the transformation of the agricultural production mode and the structure of the farmers’ livelihood. The Chinese government is making great efforts to govern agricultural nonpoint source pollution(ANSP), and farmers’ environmental behavior is a key factor that must be considered in the formulation of agricultural environmental policies. Based on a set of micro survey data on farmers in the study area and econometric methods, this study investigates the impact of agricultural labor transfer on ANSP by considering the substitution effect of agricultural factors and the effect of agricultural economies of scale. The results show that the increase of the agricultural labor force will not be conducive to reducing ANSP, while the income increase brought by agricultural labor transfer will improve the input structure of agricultural factors and have a positive impact on ANSP reduction. Government departments should provide subsidies or incentive measures to help agricultural social service organizations to expand their coverage and increase the frequency of socialized agricultural services, in order to guide farmers in the use of environment-friendly agricultural technology to reduce the ANSP caused by agricultural factors at the source. Furthermore, it is necessary to facilitate the development of small-sized agricultural machinery suitable for small-area land cultivation.

Analysis of Influential Factors on Agricultural Surplus Labor Professionalization During China's Economic Downturn

This paper contributed to the pool of studies about agricultural surplus labor in China, also acted as the root to the imminent settlement of the issues concerning agriculture, countryside and farmers. Using data from survey of agricultural surplus labor in 2012, which covered three provinces in northern, midwestem and southern parts of China, this paper analyzed the influential factors on agricultural surplus labor professionalization by adoption of a logistic regression model. It showed that agricultural surplus labor shortage could be explained by low-quality professionalization. It was a feasible and effective way to solve the issue of workforce shortage during economic downturn by improving agricultural surplus labor＇s professionalization.

Measurement of Surplus Labor in Viet Nam Agriculture

The large shift of surplus labor from agriculture to industry and services is seen in many countries around the world as well as in Vietnam in the process of industrialization and modernization of the country that has set questions about the sustainability of rural surplus labor： is there still a source of surplus labor in rural areas？ If so, how large is the source of surplus labor and how long it can be lasting？ These questions were hotly debated in the literature abroad. But in Vietnam there is very little or hardly exchanged opinions about the concepts and methods of measurement of surplus labor in general and surplus labor in agriculture in particular. This article refers to the measurement approach of surplus labor in agriculture in Vietnam.

The Labor Market and China＇s Economic Cycle： A Discussion of Okun＇s Law in Relation to China

In recent years, the Chinese economy has been facing downward pressure from slowing growth, but there has not been a significant rise in the registered/surveyed unemployment rate. The combination of these factors shows yet again that Okun＇s law does not fit China. Based on empirical observation of the relationship between China＇s economic cycle and its 1 abor market transition, we put forward a broader version of Okun＇s law which is applicable to analyses of the Chinese transition. The specific applications of the broad version of the law are connected with stages of economic development. The standard Okun model, which includes only the unemployment variable, is suited to developed countries in which labor transfer is complete. The broader version of Okun＇s law, which is applicable to transitional economies, introduces a variable for the transfer of agricultural labor. Using Chinese and cross-country panel data, we find that, compared with long-term trends, short-term changes in the transfer of agricultural 1 abor are significantly correlated with the economic cycle. This finding broadens our understanding of the general pattern of the relationship between the labor market and the economic cycle and provides scientific support for employment policy adjustments that takes ＂new urban jobs and the surveyed unemployment rate as an important indicator of macro-adjustment and control.＂

Effects of rural–urban migration on vegetation greenness in fragile areas: A case study of Inner Mongolia in China

Different government departments and researchers have paid considerable atten- tion at various levels to improving the eco-environment in ecologically fragile areas. Over the past decade, large numbers of people have emigrated from rural areas as a result of the rapid urbanization in Chinese society. The question then remains： to what extent does this migra- tion affect the regional vegetation greenness in the areas that people have moved from？ Based on normalized difference vegetation index （NDVI） data with a resolution of 1 km, as well as meteorological data and socio-economic data from 2000 to 2010 in Inner Mongolia, the spatio-temporal variation of vegetation greenness in the study area was analyzed via trend analysis and significance test methods. The contributions of human activities and natural factors to the variation of vegetation conditions during this period were also quantita- tively tested and verified, using a multi-regression analysis method. We found that： （1）the vegetation greenness of the study area increased by 10.1% during 2000-2010. More than 28% of the vegetation greenness increased significantly, and only about 2% decreased evi- dently during the study period. （2） The area with significant degradation showed a banded distribution at the northern edge of the agro-pastoral ecotone in central Inner Mongolia. This indicates that the eco-environment is still fragile in this area, which should be paid close at- tention. The area where vegetation greenness significantly improved showed a concentrated distribution in the southeast and west of Inner Mongolia. （3） The effect of agricultural labor on vegetation greenness exceeded those due to natural factors （i.e. precipitation and tempera- ture）. The emigration of agricultural labor improved the regional vegetation greenness sig- nificantly.