Impact of Agricultural Labor Transfer on Agricultural Nonpoint Source Pollution: A Case Study of Jiangxi, China

A large proportion of the rural labor force in China will continue to transfer to non-agricultural sectors in the near future, which will inevitably lead to the transformation of the agricultural production mode and the structure of the farmers’ livelihood. The Chinese government is making great efforts to govern agricultural nonpoint source pollution(ANSP), and farmers’ environmental behavior is a key factor that must be considered in the formulation of agricultural environmental policies. Based on a set of micro survey data on farmers in the study area and econometric methods, this study investigates the impact of agricultural labor transfer on ANSP by considering the substitution effect of agricultural factors and the effect of agricultural economies of scale. The results show that the increase of the agricultural labor force will not be conducive to reducing ANSP, while the income increase brought by agricultural labor transfer will improve the input structure of agricultural factors and have a positive impact on ANSP reduction. Government departments should provide subsidies or incentive measures to help agricultural social service organizations to expand their coverage and increase the frequency of socialized agricultural services, in order to guide farmers in the use of environment-friendly agricultural technology to reduce the ANSP caused by agricultural factors at the source. Furthermore, it is necessary to facilitate the development of small-sized agricultural machinery suitable for small-area land cultivation.

The Labor Market and China＇s Economic Cycle： A Discussion of Okun＇s Law in Relation to China

In recent years, the Chinese economy has been facing downward pressure from slowing growth, but there has not been a significant rise in the registered/surveyed unemployment rate. The combination of these factors shows yet again that Okun＇s law does not fit China. Based on empirical observation of the relationship between China＇s economic cycle and its 1 abor market transition, we put forward a broader version of Okun＇s law which is applicable to analyses of the Chinese transition. The specific applications of the broad version of the law are connected with stages of economic development. The standard Okun model, which includes only the unemployment variable, is suited to developed countries in which labor transfer is complete. The broader version of Okun＇s law, which is applicable to transitional economies, introduces a variable for the transfer of agricultural labor. Using Chinese and cross-country panel data, we find that, compared with long-term trends, short-term changes in the transfer of agricultural 1 abor are significantly correlated with the economic cycle. This finding broadens our understanding of the general pattern of the relationship between the labor market and the economic cycle and provides scientific support for employment policy adjustments that takes ＂new urban jobs and the surveyed unemployment rate as an important indicator of macro-adjustment and control.＂