Empirical Study on Impact of China's Economic Growth on Agricultural Trade

The proposal of"Belt and Road Initiative"has brought greater opportunities for the development of China's agricultural trade,but in recent years,China's agricultural trade deficit has shown a trend of gradually expanding.Based on the data of seven years from 2012 to 2018,this paper empirically analyzes the agricultural trade effect of China's economic growth.It is concluded that the consumption effect of agricultural trade in China's economic growth is anti-trade biased,the production effect and comprehensive effect of agricultural trade are pro-trade biased,and China's terms of trade of agricultural products tend to improve.This paper puts forward some relevant suggestions from the aspects of export structure,production mode,agricultural product processing,logistics mode,e-commerce system,inspection and quarantine and so on.

PROSPECTS OF CHINA-U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE

The China—U.S.Agricultural CooperationAgreement is a prelude to China’s accessionto the World Trade Organization(WTO).The basic framework is built,though someDarts are still to be discussed.From a macro prospective,the exportVolume of U.S.agricultural products to Chinawill increase,and vise versa.But the sharein the total trade Volume is dropping.Firstly,no matter how flexible

Impact of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area on China's International Agricultural Trade and Its Regional Development

This study aims to examine the impact of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area （CAFTA） on China＇s international agricultural trade and its regional agricultural development, using the Global Trade Analysis Project model and the China Agricultural Decision Support System. Our analysis showed that： （i） CAFTA will improve resource allocation efficiencies for both China and ASEAN and will promote bilateral agricultural trade and, hence, will have positive effects on the economic development of both sides; （ii） CAFTA will accelerate China＇s export of the agricultural commodities in which it has comparative advantages, such as vegetables, wheat and horticultural products, but at the same time bring about a large increase in imports of commodities such as vegetable oil and sugar; and （iii） CAFTA will have significantly varying impacts on China＇s regional agricultural development because of large differences in the agricultural production structure in each region. Our results indicate that agriculture in the northern, northeastern and eastern regions of China will benefit from CAFTA, whereas agriculture development in southern China will suffer. Those regional specific impacts are quite different from the effects brought by multilateral free trade treaties, such as those of the WTO, which usually have positive effects on south China but negative impacts on the northern and western parts of China.

Direct impacts and spatial spillovers:How does the multilateral resistance affect China-Africa agricultural trade?

The changes of one region’s trade barriers will affect other regions’trade volume.These spatial correlations caused by explanatory variables also constitute another part of“the multilateral resistance”,which tend to be ignored in traditional gravity equations.This paper takes this inconsistency between theoretical basis and empirical analysis as the breakthrough point of research.A multilateral gravity model is built,which has the feature of generalized spatial correlation.Then,frontier techniques of spatial econometrics are used to construct an empirical equation,and to conduct an empirical analysis,which scientifically estimate the magnitudes of bilateral direct impacts and the magnitudes of spatial spillovers on multilateral neighbors.The decomposition of the effects that provides reference for the directional operations of trade policy shows as follows:The negative factors that have significant spatial spillover effects would bring about multilateral resistance on China-Africa agricultural trade,which are caused by relatively poor social and economic conditions,corruption,and ethnic conflicts in some African countries.Energy production may cause crowding-out effects on agriculture of neighboring regions.In addition,the conflicts between African countries would hinder the development of agricultural trade between China and African countries not only because they have negative direct impacts on China-African agricultural trade but also because they have significant spatial spillover effects.When China promotes China-Africa agricultural trade by means of investment or aid,China should pay close attention to some direct or indirect impacts on the stable development of the China-African agricultural trade,which are caused by factors such as the developments of non-agricultural industries,peace,cultural consensus and efficient government.

The impacts of China’s economic policies on Sino-African agricultural trade:evidence from the gravity model analysis

The rapid economic growth of China and some African countries provides tremendous opportunity for the agricultural trade.Both China and African countries have made great efforts in achieving win-win cooperation between the two economies.This paper aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of impacts of various factors on bilateral agricultural trade between China and Africa.The fixed effect Gravity model is adopted in the study to assess the impacts of different factors on Sino-African bilateral agricultural trade,based on the various data sets covering 1992-2010.The economic growth and rising agricultural production are found to be the two key factors to drive Sino-African future bilateral agricultural trade.Therefore,the focus should be put on the long-run effects of investment in promoting bilateral agricultural trade.Moreover,the agricultural cooperation should be enhanced to improve the agricultural production and fully use the comparative advantages in both sides.

Study of Factors Influencing China-ASEAN Agricultural Product Trade Development in the Context of"the Belt and Road"

This paper reviewed and analyzed the current situations and influencing factors of the bilateral agricultural product trade development in China-ASEAN Free Trade Area(CAFTA),which has important practical significance for promoting the in-depth development of the free trade area and has guiding significance for precise policy implementation.Based on the status of import and export trade of agricultural products in CAFTA from 2013 to 2017,it constructed a trade gravity model.With the aid of Stata 14.0 software,it explored major factors influencing the development of bilateral agricultural trade from the total amount of agricultural products import and export and Commodity Indexes for the Standard International Trade Classification,Revision 3(SITC Rev.3)agricultural product classification data.The empirical regression results show that the GDP of ASEAN countries,the ratio of agricultural added value to GDP,and the per capita gross national income(GNI)measured based on the purchasing power parity(PPP)exchange rate have the greatest impact on agricultural product trade in CAFTA in the context of"the Belt and Road"(B&D).Based on empirical research,it came up with recommendations including adjusting the import and export structure of agricultural products,enhancing product competitive advantages,and implementing diversified markets.

THE LAST TRADE CARAVAN IN TIBET WANGCHEN WAS BUSY IN AN AGRICULTURAL AREA

Setting off from Lhasa we followed Lhasa River,passing through Chushur County,then,driving along the banks of the Yarlung Tsangpo River,we finally arrived at Nyemo Bridge.Next we headed northward and into a long valley.Finally,we reached Nyemo County.Although it was not a big county,it looked much more prosperous than Palgon County.A large government office building greeted us in a main street offering shops,both big and small,as well as restaurants-which also caught our eye.Nevertheless,the wandering la...

Agricultural Exports Competitiveness of Pakistan in Global Market

Agricultural sector is a major source of employment and export earnings for Pakistan. Exports of Pakistan are highly concentrated in agricultural products including cotton, rice, sugar and fruit. This study analyzed comparative and competitive advantages of the main agricultural products of Pakistan, i.e. cotton, rice and tangerines. Consumption patterns of top exporting countries in each category were also analyzed. Results revealed that Pakistan had strong competitiveness for export of these commodities. Strong potential for growth in the agricultural sector of Pakistan was found and it could be optimized to raise export earnings and meet the objectives of the strategic trade policy framework （STPF） 2015-2018 of Pakistan.