Model Output Statistics (MOS) is a well-known technique that allows improving outputs from numerical atmospheric models. In this contribution, we present the development of a MOS algorithm to improve air quality forec...Model Output Statistics (MOS) is a well-known technique that allows improving outputs from numerical atmospheric models. In this contribution, we present the development of a MOS algorithm to improve air quality forecasts in Catalonia, a region in the northeast of Spain. These forecasts are obtained from an Eulerian coupled air quality modelling system developed by Meteosim. Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2), Particulate Matter (PM10) and Ozone (03) have been the pollutants considered and the methodology has been applied on statistical values of these pollutants according to regulatory levels. Four MOS algorithms have been developed, characterized by different approaches in relation with seasonal stratification and stratification according to the measurement stations considered. Algorithms have been compared among them in order to obtain a MOS that reduces the forecast uncertainties. Results obtained show that the best MOS designed increases the accuracy of NO2 maximum 1-h daily value forecast from 71% to 75%, from 68% to 81% in the case of daily values of PM10, and finally, the accuracy of O3 maximum 1-h daily value from 79% to 87%.展开更多
The ambient air quality standard(AAQS)is a vital policy instrument for protecting the environment and human health.Hainan Province is at the forefront of China's efforts to protect its ecological environment,with ...The ambient air quality standard(AAQS)is a vital policy instrument for protecting the environment and human health.Hainan Province is at the forefront of China's efforts to protect its ecological environment,with an official goal to achieve world-leading air quality by 2035.However,neither the national AAQS nor the World Health Organization guideline offers sufficient guidance for improving air quality in Hainan because Hainan has well met the former while the latter is excessively stringent.Consequently,the establishment of Hainan's local AAQS becomes imperative.Nonetheless,research regarding the development of local AAQS is scarce,especially in comparatively more polluted countries such as China.The relatively high background values and significant interannual fluctuations in air pollutant concentrations in Hainan present challenges in the development of local AAQS.Our research proposes a world-class local AAQS of Hainan Province by reviewing the AAQS in major countries or regions worldwide,analyzing the influence of different statistical forms,and carefully evaluating the attainability of the standard.In the proposed AAQS,the annual mean concentration limit for PM2.5,the annual 95th percentile of daily maximum 8-h mean(MDA8)concentration limit for O_(3),and the peak season concentration limit for O_(3) are set at 10,120,and 85μg/m^(3),respectively.Our study indicates that,with effective control policies,Hainan is projected to achieve compliance with the new standard by 2035.The implementation of the local AAQS is estimated to avoid 1,526(1,253–1,789)and 259(132–501)premature deaths attributable to longterm exposure to PM2.5 and O_(3) in Hainan in 2035,respectively.展开更多
基金This work was funded by the Catalan Government and the Spanish Government through the projects PTOP-2013-608 and PTQ-12-05244 respectively.
文摘Model Output Statistics (MOS) is a well-known technique that allows improving outputs from numerical atmospheric models. In this contribution, we present the development of a MOS algorithm to improve air quality forecasts in Catalonia, a region in the northeast of Spain. These forecasts are obtained from an Eulerian coupled air quality modelling system developed by Meteosim. Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2), Particulate Matter (PM10) and Ozone (03) have been the pollutants considered and the methodology has been applied on statistical values of these pollutants according to regulatory levels. Four MOS algorithms have been developed, characterized by different approaches in relation with seasonal stratification and stratification according to the measurement stations considered. Algorithms have been compared among them in order to obtain a MOS that reduces the forecast uncertainties. Results obtained show that the best MOS designed increases the accuracy of NO2 maximum 1-h daily value forecast from 71% to 75%, from 68% to 81% in the case of daily values of PM10, and finally, the accuracy of O3 maximum 1-h daily value from 79% to 87%.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(2022YFC3700702)the Energy Foundation,and the Tsinghua-Toyota Joint Research Institute Inter-disciplinary Program.
文摘The ambient air quality standard(AAQS)is a vital policy instrument for protecting the environment and human health.Hainan Province is at the forefront of China's efforts to protect its ecological environment,with an official goal to achieve world-leading air quality by 2035.However,neither the national AAQS nor the World Health Organization guideline offers sufficient guidance for improving air quality in Hainan because Hainan has well met the former while the latter is excessively stringent.Consequently,the establishment of Hainan's local AAQS becomes imperative.Nonetheless,research regarding the development of local AAQS is scarce,especially in comparatively more polluted countries such as China.The relatively high background values and significant interannual fluctuations in air pollutant concentrations in Hainan present challenges in the development of local AAQS.Our research proposes a world-class local AAQS of Hainan Province by reviewing the AAQS in major countries or regions worldwide,analyzing the influence of different statistical forms,and carefully evaluating the attainability of the standard.In the proposed AAQS,the annual mean concentration limit for PM2.5,the annual 95th percentile of daily maximum 8-h mean(MDA8)concentration limit for O_(3),and the peak season concentration limit for O_(3) are set at 10,120,and 85μg/m^(3),respectively.Our study indicates that,with effective control policies,Hainan is projected to achieve compliance with the new standard by 2035.The implementation of the local AAQS is estimated to avoid 1,526(1,253–1,789)and 259(132–501)premature deaths attributable to longterm exposure to PM2.5 and O_(3) in Hainan in 2035,respectively.
