An Information Analysis Decision System

In recent years, we are increasingly coping with macro, complex and large-scale system in whichinformations twist together. It is a worthwhile research to develop general computer-aided meth-od for decision-making on the basis of processing, analysing and deducing from the informationobtained.

GIS-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) Techniques to Derive Flood Risks Management on Rice Productivity in Gishari Marshland

Floods are phenomenon with significant socio-economic implications mainly for human loss, agriculture, livestock, soil loss and land degradation, for which many researchers try to identify the most appropriate methodologies by analyzing their temporal and spatial development. This study therefore attempts to employ the GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis and analytical hierarchy process techniques to derive the flood risks management on rice productivity in the Gishari Agricultural Marshland in Rwamagana district, Rwanda. Here, six influencing potential factors to flooding, including river slope, soil texture, Land Use Land Cover through Land Sat 8, rainfall, river distance and Digital Elevation Model are considered for the delineation of flood risk zones. Data acquisition like Landsat 8 images, DEM, land use land cover, slope, and soil class in the study area were considered. Results showed that if the DEM is outdated or inaccurate due to changes in the terrain, such as construction, excavation, or erosion, the predicted flood patterns might not reflect the actual water flow. This could result unexpected flood extents and depths, potentially inundating rice fields that were not previously at risk and this, expectedly explained that the increase 1 m in elevation would reduce the rice productivity by 0.17% due to unplanned flood risks in marshland. It was found that the change in rainfall distribution in Gishari agricultural marshland would also decrease the rice productivity by 0.0018%, which is a sign that rainfall is a major factor of flooding in rice scheme. Rainfall distribution plays a crucial role in flooding analysis and can directly impact rice productivity. Oppositely, another causal factor was Land Use Land Cover (LULC), where the Multivariate Logistic Regression Model Analysis findings showed that the increase of one unit in Land Use Land Cover would increase rice productivity by 0.17% of the total rice productivity from the Gishari Agricultural Marshland. Based on findings from these techniques, the Gishari Agricultural Marshlands having steeped land with grassland is classified into five classes of flooding namely very low, low, moderate, high, and very high which include 430%, 361%, 292%, 223%, and 154%. Government of Rwanda and other implementing agencies and major key actors have to contribute on soil and water conservation strategies to reduce the runoff and soil erosion as major contributors of flooding.

Potential landfill site selection for solid waste disposal using GIS and multi-criteria decision analysis(MCDA)

Proper solid waste disposal is an important socioeconomic concern for all developing countries.Municipalities have their own policies,individual approaches and methods to manage the solid wastes.They consider wastelands outside the urban area as the best suitable for the solid waste disposal.Such improper site selection will create morphological changes that lead to environmental hazards in the urban and its surrounding areas.In this research,the site selection for urban solid waste disposal in the Coimbatore district used geographical information system(GIS)and multi-criteria decision analysis(MCDA).Thematic layers of lineament density,landuse/landcover,population density,groundwater depth,drainage density,slope,soil texture,geology and geomorphology were considered as primary criteria and weights for criteria,and sub-criteria were assigned by MCDA analysis.The resultant weight score was validated by consistency ratio so that the efficiency of the selected criteria was justified.The overlay analysis in GIS environment provides 17 potential zones in Coimbatore district,among which,four suitable sites were screened and refined with the help of field investigation and visual interpretation of satellite image.The result of landfill suitability map shows the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Canadian children’s and youth’s adherence to the 24-h movement guidelines during the COVID-19 pandemic: A decision tree analysis

Purpose:The purpose of this study was to use decision tree modeling to generate profiles of children and youth who were more and less likely to meet the Canadian 24-h movement guidelines during the coronavirus disease-2019(COVID-19)outbreak.Methods:Data for this study were from a nationally representative sample of 1472 Canadian parents(Meanage=45.12,SD=7.55)of children(511 years old)or youth(1217 years old).Data were collected in April 2020 via an online survey.Survey items assessed demographic,behavioral,social,micro-environmental,and macro-environmental characteristics.Four decision trees of adherence and non-adherence to all movement recommendations combined and each individual movement recommendation(physical activity(PA),screen time,and sleep)were generated.Results:Results revealed specific combinations of adherence and non-adherence characteristics.Characteristics associated with adherence to the recommendation(s)included high parental perceived capability to restrict screen time,annual household income ofCAD 100,000,increases in children’s and youth’s outdoor PA/sport since the COVID-19 outbreak began,being a boy,having parents younger than 43 years old,and small increases in children’s and youth’s sleep duration since the COVID-19 outbreak began.Characteristics associated with non-adherence to the recommendation(s)included low parental perceived capability to restrict screen time,youth aged 1217 years,decreases in children’s and youth’s outdoor PA/sport since the COVID-19 outbreak began,primary residences located in all provinces except Quebec,low parental perceived capability to support children’s and youth’s sleep and PA,and annual household income ofCAD 99,999.Conclusion:Our results show that specific characteristics interact to contribute to(non)adherence to the movement behavior recommendations.Results highlight the importance of targeting parents’perceived capability for the promotion of children’s and youth’s movement behaviors during challenging times of the COVID-19 pandemic,paying particular attention to enhancing parental perceived capability to restrict screen time.

Utilizing comprehensive decision analysis methods to determine an optimal planting pattern and nitrogen application for winter oilseed rape

Oilseed rape is one of the most important oil crops globally.Attaining the appropriate cultivation method(planting pattern and nitrogen level)is necessary to achieve high yield,quality and resource utilization efficiency.However,the optimal method for oilseed rape varies across countries and regions.The objective of the present study was to determine an appropriate cultivation method,including planting pattern and nitrogen application,for winter oilseed rape in northwestern China.Two planting patterns:ridge film mulching and furrow planting(RFMF)and flat planting(FP),and six nitrogen(N)amounts:0(N0),60(N60),120(N120),180(N180),240(N240),and 300(N300)kg N ha–1 were applied across three growing seasons(2014–2017).Three comprehensive decision analysis methods:principal component analysis,grey correlation degree analysis and the combined entropy weight and dynamic technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution method were used to evaluate the growth and physiological indicators,nutrient uptake,yield,quality,evapotranspiration,and water use efficiency of winter oilseed rape.Planting pattern,nitrogen amount and their interaction significantly affected the indicators aforementioned.The RFMF pattern significantly increased all indicators over the FP pattern.Application of N also markedly increased all the indicators except for seed oil content,but the yield,oil production and water use efficiency were decreased when N fertilizer exceeded 180 kg N ha–1 under FP and 240 kg N ha–1 under RFFM.The evaluation results of the three comprehensive decision analysis methods indicated that RFMF planting pattern with 240 kg N ha–1 is an appropriate cultivation method for winter oilseed rape in northwestern China.These findings are of vital significance to maximize yield,optimize quality and improve resource use efficiencies of winter oilseed rape.

Holistic approach of GIS based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis(MCDA) and WetSpass models to evaluate groundwater potential in Gelana watershed of Ethiopia

Appropriate quantification and identification of the groundwater distribution in a hydrological basin may provide necessary information for effective management,planning and development of groundwater resources.Groundwater potential assessment and delineation in a highly heterogeneous environment with limited Spatiotemporal data derived from Gelana watershed of Abaya Chamo lake basin is performed,using integrated multi-criteria decision analysis(MCDA),water and energy transfer between soil and plant and atmosphere under quasi-steady state(WetSpass)models.The outputs of the WetSpass model reveal a favorable structure of water balance in the basin studied,mainly using surface runoff.The simulated total flow and groundwater recharge are validated using river measurements and estimated baseflow at two gauging stations located in the study area,which yields a good agreement.The WetSpass model effectively integrates a water balance assessment in a geographical information system(GIS)environment.The WetSpass model is shown to be computationally reputable for such a remote complex setting as the African rift,with a correlation coefficient of 0.99 and 0.99 for total flow and baseflow at a significant level of p-value<0.05,respectively.The simulated annual water budget reveals that 77.22%of annual precipitation loses through evapotranspiration,of which 16.54%is lost via surface runoff while 6.24%is recharged to the groundwater.The calibrated groundwater recharge from the WetSpass model is then considered when determining the controlling factors of groundwater occurrence and formation,together with other multi-thematic layers such as lithology,geomorphology,lineament density and drainage density.The selected five thematic layers through MCDA are incorporated by employing the analytical hierarchy process(AHP)method to identify the relative dominance in groundwater potential zoning.The weighted factors in the AHP are procedurally aggregated,based on weighted linear combinations to provide the groundwater potential index.Based on the potential indexes,the area then is demarcated into low,moderate,and high groundwater potential zones(GWPZ).The identified GWPZs are finally examined using the existing groundwater inventory data(static water level and springs)in the region.About 70.7%of groundwater inventory points are coinciding with the delineated GWPZs.The weighting comparison shows that lithology,geomorphology,and groundwater recharge appear to be the dominant factors influence on the resources potential.The assessment of groundwater potential index values identify 45.88%as high,39.38%moderate,and 14.73%as low groundwater potential zones.WetSpass model analysis is more preferable in the area like Gelana watershed when the topography is rugged,inaccessible and having limited gauging stations.

Use of Multi-criteria Decision Analysis Methods for Water Supply Problems： A Framework for Improved Rainwater Harvesting

Several conflicting objectives are considered in decision-making. MCDA （multi-criteria decision analysis） methods are developed to facilitate better decision making by decision-makers. Water supply problems are complex problems with multiple decision making and criteria. Hence, the use of multi-criteria decision analysis is very appropriate for solving these problems. Multi-criteria decision analysis can be divided into three main groups： value measurement models, goals, aspiration and reference level models and outranking models. The methods listed have been applied to water supply problems, especially in the evaluation of alternative water supply strategies. Each method has its advantages and limitations. A good alternative for concluding a better-suited method for water supply problems is to apply more than one method, either in combination to make use of the strengths of both methods, or in parallel to obtain a broader decision basis for the decision maker. Previous studies of MCDA in water supply planning have usually considered water supply networks with only one water service delivery. Advanced water supply sources with multiple water service delivery systems have been neglected. This is an on-going study in which analytical hierarchical multi-criteria decision analysis methods are proposed for solving water supply problems and a framework for improved rainwater harvesting systems will be developed.

A Risk-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Approach to Evaluating Transboundary Water Development—The Case of Lower Mekong River Basin

The Lower Mekong River basin (LMB) covers the lower part of the Mekong river basin, including Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. Due to numerous pressures from high population growth and intensive hydropower development, the LMB has been facing significant challenges concerning its biodiversity and ecosystem. In 2017, Mekong River Commission (MRC), an intergovernmental organisation founded in 1995 among LMB countries, established the Council Study, which analysed the impacts of water development scenarios concerning the environmental, socioeconomic aspects of the LMB. This paper explores the nature of risks to the LMB water development and subsequently evaluates LMB’s water development scenarios described in the Council Study by using a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method. MCDA method has been widely applied in the field of water resource management in order to assist the decision-making process by systematically evaluating a certain number of alternatives against well-selected criteria through a preference rating scheme. By implementing a risk-based comprehensive assessment of the LMB transboundary water, this study provides insights into the impacts of the increasing risks to the ecosystem and human beings on the water development of the basin over time, which assists to change the awareness and the perspective toward humans’ risks and transboundary river ecosystem of decision-makers. This paper provides valuable recommendations for MRC to improve their policy concerning benefit-sharing scheme, water planning and risk mitigation strategies.

Groundwater Exploration Using Multi Criteria Decision Analysis and Analytic Hierarchy Process in Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, Central Nigeria

There exists a growing demand for potable water resources to fill the abysmally insufficient water needs for domestic and industrial especially in the Basement Complex terrains of Nigeria. This situation is attributable to its complex hydrogeologic character. The present challenge has worsened due to the non-incorporation of integrated methods in groundwater exploration campaigns. To effectively combat the challenge of unacceptable failure rates in drilled water well development, there is a need for innovative scientific principles and quantitative assessment of groundwater resources to enhance sustainable and proper utilisation of these resources. Hence, it is the objective of this research to exploit the potential application of remote sensing, Geographic Information System (GIS), and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) techniques and freely open datasets in mapping groundwater potential zones. Seven thematic maps have been produced based on factors that are deemed to influence and deemed to have significant control on the occurrence and movement of groundwater. These factors are geology, lineament density, slope, drainage density, rainfall, land-use/land cover, and soil class. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to assign normalised weights to the thematic maps based on the various relative contributions to groundwater occurrence and movement. These thematic maps were then processed in a GIS environment using the Weighted Overlay tool which implements the MCDA. The resulting Groundwater Potential Zones (GPZ) of the area gave rise to Five classes viz: Very good, Good, Moderate, Poor and Very Poor representing 19%, 8%, 14%, 47% and 13% respectively. It is recommended that the GPZ map should be used as a reconnaissance tool for selecting prospective sites for detailed groundwater resource exploitation.

Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for Usage Based Optimization of Powertrains

The electrification of powertrains leads to an increasing diversification of powertrain configurations. Each single configuration has its specific advantages which appear depending on the usage profile. To find the usage based optimal powertrain in consideration of a variety of evaluation criteria, the powertrains have to be optimized for the usage profile and characteristics have to be extracted from the usage profile. The carbon dioxide emissions of the optimized powertrains and usage based criteria are used in a multi-criteria decision analysis to determine the optimal powertrain for a specific usage profile. The description of characteristic maps forms the objective function of a minimization problem. The determined carbon dioxide emissions are one criterion in a multi-criteria decision process. All considered criteria are at least partly objective so that subjective ratings are eliminated as far as possible. The result is an optimized powertrain for a desired usage under the consideration of objective criteria that are extracted from the usage profile.

“AniFair”:A GUI Based Software Tool for Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis--An Example of Assessing Animal Welfare

Multi-criteria decision analysis deals with decision problems in which multiple criteria need to be considered. The criteria might be measured on different scales so that comparability is difficult. One approach to help the user to organize the problem and to reflect on his or her assessment on the decision is Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation TecHnique (MACBETH). Here the user needs to provide qualitative judgment about differences of attractiveness regarding pairs of options. MACBETH was implemented in the M-MACBETH software using the additive aggregation model. The present article introduces the software tool “AniFair” which combines the MACBETH approach with the Choquet integral as an aggregation function, because the Choquet integral enables the modeling of interaction between criteria. With the Choquet integral, the user can define constraints on the relative importance of criteria (Shapley value) and the interaction between criteria. In contrast to M-MACBETH, with every instance of “AniFair” the user is made available at least two aggregation level. “AniFair” provides Graphical User Interfaces for the entering of information. The software tool is introduced via an example from the Welfare Quality Assessment protocol for pigs. With this, “AniFair” is applied to real data that were collected from thirteen farms in Northern Germany by an animal welfare expert. The “AniFair” results enabled a division of the farms into five groups of comparable performance concerning the welfare principle “Good feeding”. Hereby, the results differed in how much the interaction between criteria contributed to the Choquet integral values. The shares varied from 5% to 55%. With this, the vulnerability of aggregation results towards relative importance of and interaction between criteria was stressed, as changes in the ranking due to the definition of constraints could be shown. All results were exported to human readable txt or csv files for further analyses, and advice could be given to the farmers on how to improve their welfare situation.

Financing Decisions Analysis of E-commerce Supply Chain Finance for Fresh Agricultural Products in China

The supply chain finance(SCF)solutions are becoming increasingly diversified with the continuous perfection of the economic system.However,financing for small and medium sized enterprises(SMEs)is still a difficult issue waiting to be solved by enterprises and the government in China.SCF solutions based on e-commerce platforms have developed rapidly in China that provide an alternative for SMEs when few studies have been conducted on e-commerce SCF solutions which focus on fresh agricultural products.Therefore,this research focuses on the SCF solutions applicable to e-commerce enterprises of fresh agricultural products.

Decision modelling for economic evaluation of liver transplantation

As the gap between a shortage of organs and the im-mense demand for liver grafts persists, every available donor liver needs to be optimized for utility, urgency and equity. To overcome this challenge, decision modelling might allow us to gather evidence from previous studies as well as compare the costs and consequences of alternative options. For public health policy and clinical intervention assessment, it is a potentially powerful tool. The most commonly used types of decision analytical models include decision trees, the Markov model, microsimulation, discrete event simulation and the system dynamic model. Analytic models could support decision makers in the field of liver transplantation when facing specifc problems by synthesizing evidence, comprising all relevant options, generalizing results to other contexts, extending the time horizon and exploring the uncertainty. For modeling studies of economic evaluation for transplantation, understanding the current nature of the disease is crucial, as well as the selection of appropriate modelling techniques. The quality and availability of data is another key element for the selection and development of decision analytical models. In addition, good practice guidelines should be complied, which is important for standardization and comparability between economic outputs.

The Application of Optimum Decision in Oilfield Development

The major steps of oilfield development are given in this paper. The optimal model of oilfield development is built and the methods of optimum decision analysis are studied. The solution and analysis of the optimal tactics have been set up according to the data collected in the oilfield.

Multi-factors decision-making entropy method and its application in engineering management

In order to meet the strict requirements for information in engineering management, the positive interval （0, 1 ] in Shannon information entropy is extended to the real number interval [ - 1, 1 ]. The information theory and the decision theory are combined effectively, and the deficiencies that the traditional Bayes decision-making methods only consider a single factor are made up for. The multi-factors engineering decision-making methods are proposed, and some critical problems are solved in the practical engineering management decision-making process.

System failure analysis based on DEMATEL–ISM and FMECA

A new method of system failure analysis was proposed. First, considering the relationships between the failure subsystems,the decision making trial and evaluation laboratory(DEMATEL) method was used to calculate the degree of correlation between the failure subsystems, analyze the combined effect of related failures, and obtain the degree of correlation by using the directed graph and matrix operations. Then, the interpretative structural modeling(ISM) method was combined to intuitively show the logical relationship of many failure subsystems and their influences on each other by using multilevel hierarchical structure model and obtaining the critical subsystems. Finally, failure mode effects and criticality analysis(FMECA) was used to perform a qualitative hazard analysis of critical subsystems, determine the critical failure mode, and clarify the direction of reliability improvement.Through an example, the result demonstrates that the proposed method can be efficiently applied to system failure analysis problems.

Game Analysis for the Pricing Strategy in Manufacturer-Retailer Supply Chains

Supply Chain Management(SCM) is the term used to de sc ribe the management of the flow of materials, information and funds across the e ntire supply chain, from suppliers to component producers to final assemblers to distribution(warehouses and retailers) and ultimately to the consumers.This pap er studies the coordinated problem for a manufacturing and retailing supply chai n. Differentiating from traditional joint optimization in the literature, the ap proach applies game theory structure as the researching framework to address the problem of coordinating the pricing decisions of the manufacturer and retailer. Three co-op pricing models are developed and discussed which are based on two noncooperative games and one cooperative game. They are a Stakelberg’s two-sta ge game model, a simultaneously move game model and an cooperative game model, r espectively. The results obtained by the sufficient comparisons and discusses te ll us that the noncooperative equilibriums are lower efficiently than joint coop erative equilibrium. In order to get the efficient cooperative mechanism, we int roduce the Pareto efficiency concept and obtain so-called feasible Pareto effic ient set of pricing schemes (contract curve). The cooperative mechanism based on the curve would be solid and stable. These and orther related managerial issues are explored in this paper.

Multiobjective Decision Making: the Combined Approach

In this paper, a new approach for generating all or partly efficient solutions called the Combined Approach is developed. The property of efficient solutions generated by the combined approach and its relationships with other four approaches: weighting approach, sequential approach, ε-constraint approach and hybrid approach, are discussed. Based on this combined approach, a decision-making support method called the Combined Decision-Making Method (CDMM) for multiobjective problems is developed, which is an interactive process with the decision maker. Only the aspiration levels, which reflect the decision maker's satisfying degrees for corresponding objectives, are needed to be supplied by the decision maker step by step as he will. This interactive way for objectives can easily be accepted. Finally, the application of the proposed decision making method in the resource allocation problem is discussed, and an example for the production decision analysis of the solar energy cells given.

Uncertainty and Its Description in Decision Models

Various perspectives in uncertainty are briefly summarized in this paper, and the classification of uncertainties is discussed. The descriptions of different classes of uncertainty are also presented. Furthermore, a risk representation model for decision-making analysis is provided.

Competence Set Analysis Under Risk and Uncertainty

The competence set analysis technology can be applied to solve the decision making problems successfully and satisfactorily. This paper mainly focuses on the expanding strategy research and development of the competence set under risk and uncertainty. A systematic expression of the competence set analysis is described, several expanding principles and strategies with regard to several different cases are presented, and their applications in the personnel training program are discussed, some conclusions and suggestions to be developed in a further work are included.