The Impact of Competition on Analysts’Forecasts:A Simple Agent-Based Model

This paper builds an agent-based model to study the impact of analyst competition on analyst optimism.Two strategies(a catering strategy and a pressure strategy)are used to model analysts conflicts of interest between listed corporations and institutional clients.The finding suggests that the relationship between competition and analyst optimism is nonlinear.Low-level competition generates more analyst unbiased forecasts.However,the condition of no competition or high-level competition generates more analyst optimistic forecasts.The empirical test also confirms that analysts issue less biased earnings forecasts under the condition of low-level competition.

Customer Information Disclosure and Analyst Forecasts : Empirical Evidence from Analysts' Perspective

Based on the company's disclosure of key customer information,the impact of corporate customer concentration on analyst forecast was studied,and we further studied the impact of detailed customer names on analyst forecasts. It is found that:(i) customer concentration significantly affects the accuracy of analyst forecasts. The higher the customer concentration is,the lower the accuracy of analyst forecasts is;(ii) Voluntary disclosure of customer names can provide incremental information to analysts and mitigate the negative impact of customer concentration on the accuracy of analyst forests;(iii) further research has found that the incremental information brought by the state-owned enterprises' disclosure of the customer names to analysts is more obvious; disclosure of customer names by companies with high environmental uncertainty is more likely to be of concern to analysts; and star analysts have a higher ability to interpret customer names than non-star analysts.

Carbon emission trading system and stock price crash risk of heavily polluting listed companies in China:based on analyst coverage mechanism

This study reveals the inconsistencies between the negative externalities of carbon emissions and the recognition condition of accounting statements.Hence,the study identifies that heavily polluting enterprises in China have severe off-balance sheet carbon reduction risks before implementing the carbon emission trading system(CETS).Through the staggered difference-in-difference(DID)model and the propen-sity score matching-DID model,the impact of CETS on reducing the risk of stock price crashes is examined using data from China’s A-share heavily polluting listed companies from 2007 to 2019.The results of this study are as follows:(1)CETS can significantly reduce the risk of stock price crashes for heavily polluting companies in the pilot areas.Specifically,CETS reduces the skewness(negative conditional skewness)and down-to-up volatility of the firm-specific weekly returns by 8.7%and 7.6%,respectively.(2)Heterogeneity analysis further shows that the impacts of CETS on the risk of stock price crashes are more significant for heavily polluting enterprises with the bear market condition,short-sighted management,and intensive air pollution.(3)Mechanism tests show that CETS can reduce analysts’coverage of heavy polluters,reducing the risk of stock price crashes.This study reveals the role of CETS from the stock price crash risk perspective and helps to clarify the relationship between climatic risk and corporate financial risk.

川西北某拟建高速公路隧道口高位危岩特征及危险性评价

某拟建高速公路隧道口位于川西北岷江河谷地带,区内地形地貌复杂、新构造运动强烈,高位危岩极其发育,严重威胁拟建公路隧道口。本文基于无人机倾斜摄影及现场调查,采用Rockfall Analyst软件模拟落石三维运动特征。结果表明:(1)危岩区坡度较陡,岩性以砂质千枚岩为主,岩体破碎、节理裂隙发育,稳定性较差,变形破坏模式以滑移式、坠落式为主;(2)落石运动过程以自由飞落、碰撞弹跳以及贴坡运动为主,最大速率33 m/s,最大弹跳高度14.5 m,最大能量约3 100 kJ,在运动过程有大部分会落至隧道洞口上方,危险性高-极高;(3)建议清除隧道洞口上方孤石、危岩,设置锚索(杆)框格梁进行处治,隧道进口接长明洞,同时加强监测。本研究成果对川西北地区公路、铁路工程地质选线、勘察设计及防灾减灾具有一定指导和借鉴意义。

基于ArcView 3D Analyst的土地复垦三维景观模拟

随着GIS技术的发展,其在土地复垦中的应用越来越广泛。利用GIS技术可以进行复垦土地的适宜性评价、规划设计等。在GIS所提供资料的基础上,建立起复垦规划后的具有真实感的三维景观模型,对评价规划方案、展示规划效果、通过三维可视化的形式反映土地复垦前后的景观变化具有重要意义。ArcView3DAnalyst是ArcViewGIS的扩充模块。对ArcView3DAnalyst作了简单介绍,然后阐述了在ArcView3DAnalyst基础上建立土地复垦三维景观模型的方法,最后结合实例建立了1个土地复垦三维景观模型。

基于无人机和Rockfall Analyst的崩塌落石特征分析与运动学模拟--以察雅县崩塌落石为例

崩塌落石是高陡边坡的一种浅表部破坏方式,突发性强且随机性大,是严重的地质灾害之一。分析崩塌落石特征,并对落石进行运动学模拟对于灾害防治具有重大意义。以往的研究对于崩塌落石的运动学模拟大多基于二维模拟软件,人为控制了运动方向,具有一定的干扰性,部分独立的三维模拟软件计算时考虑的参数较多,增加了模拟难度。在调查方式上,无人机技术凭借机动灵活、工作效益高成为一种趋势。因此,文章以昌都市察雅县北西侧斜坡为研究区,结合现场调查和无人机三维倾斜摄影技术,调查分析了斜坡崩塌落石特征,通过三维模型获取了岩体结构面信息,分析了岩体稳定性;基于GIS环境下三维落石模拟软件Rockfall Analyst,根据历史崩塌轨迹采用参数反演的方法获得研究区斜坡下垫面参数,对物源区块石进行了运动轨迹、速度和弹跳高度的数值模拟。结果表明:(1)斜坡上主要存在三处物源区,岩体整体受三组主控结构面控制,不同结构面之间的组合破坏和冻融侵蚀影响下的岩体差异性分化是造成岩体失稳的主要因素;(2)通过模拟的运动轨迹确定了落石的威胁范围,弹跳高度和速度轨迹可为崩塌落石灾害防治的位置和防治措施的选择上提供地质依据。

面向对象影像信息提取软件Feature Analyst和eCognition的分析与比较

介绍了目前最为先进的两种面向对象的影像信息提取软件Feature Analyst和eCognition。通过对两种软件设计思路、工作流程和软件特殊性的对比分析,探讨了影像信息自动提取的发展趋势。

基于ArcView 3D Analyst的矿山环境治理恢复的三维景观模拟

利用GIS所提供的三维可视化功能,建立起矿山治理恢复后的具有真实感的三维景观模型,对评价规划方案、展示规划效果、通过三维可视化的形式反映矿山环境治理恢复前后的景观变化具有重要意义。ArcView 3D Analyst是ArcView GIS的扩充模块,在ArcView 3D Analyst基础上建立了采空塌陷区的回填、削坡设计及其治理后矿山绿化等矿山治理恢复设计的三维景观模拟。

新的数据挖掘工具——Poly Analyst

给出了数据挖掘工具评价的主要指标 ,结合指标对PolyAnalyst的功能和特点进行了较为详尽的介绍 ,并对PolyAnalyst的关键算法进行了分析。对从事数据挖掘软件系统开发和数据挖掘算法研究的人员有所借鉴。

基于ArcGIS 3D Analyst的湛江金沙湾海滩养护分析

以湛江金沙湾海滩养护前后不同时期沉积物粒度监测数据、海底高程扫描数据和遥感影像为依据,运用Arc GIS 3D Analyst进行沉积物和海底地形分析,得出湛江市金沙湾海滩养护工程实施前后不同时期海底沉积物、地形表面和动态剖面变化情况。结果表明,湛江金沙湾海滩侵蚀区域集中在风车广场对出海域和原红嘴鸥码头附近,后期应重点考虑对此区域进行修复重建。

基于Belt Analyst的带式输送机分析

带式输送机因节能、环保、便于管理等优势而在矿山中广泛使用,以一实际工程项目为例,采用Belt Analyst软件对带式输送机进行了静态分析、平面转弯分析和动态分析,以确保带式输送机整体设计的合理性。

基于Geostatistical Analyst的喀斯特地区土壤养分空间变异研究

基于ARCGIS平台Geostatistical Analyst模块对喀斯特地区土壤养分空间变异特征进行研究,以贵州省黔西县韦寨村为研究区,首先对研究区内耕地土壤进行取样,深度为0～ 20cm,并将研究区划分为两片,采样方式分别为25m＊ 25m和50m＊ 50m.通过实验得出土壤中全氮、有效磷、速效钾、有机质含量和pH值.采用GIS地统计分析和常规统计方法对土壤pH值及养分（全氮、有效磷、速效钾、有机质）的空间变异分析和合理采样数目研究.结果表明,研究区内全氮、有效磷、速效钾、pH、有机质均呈对数正态分布;全氮、有效磷、速效钾、pH、有机质均为中等变异强度;研究区内最优采样方式为50m＊ 50m.

Investor Attention,Analyst Optimism,and Stock Price Crash Risk

This paper used the A-shares listed companies in China as samples,constructed a comprehensive indicator of investor attention,and conducted an empirical analysis on the correlations among investor attention,analyst optimism,and stock price crash risk.The results indicated that investor attention aggravates the stock price crash risk and has a positive effect on analyst optimism.Meanwhile,the analyst optimism plays a mediating role in the positive correlation between investor attention and stock price crash risk.In addition to that,institutional investor attention also has direct and indirect effects on the crash risk.

ZTE Positioned in the Leaders Quadrant in Leading Industry Analyst Firm Report

ZTE Corporation announced on July 14, 2010 that it has been positioned in the leaders quadrant in Gartner＇s Magic Quadrant for Softswitch Architecture Report.

Predicting the Seasonal NDVI Change by GIS Geostatistical Analyst and Study on Driver Factors of NDVI Change in Hainan Island, China

As Hainan Island belonged to tropical monsoon influenced region, vegetation coverage was high. It is accessible to acquire the vegetation index information from remote sensing images, but predicting the average vegetation index in spatial distributing trend is not available. Under the condition that the average vegetation index values of observed stations in different seasons were known, it was possible to qualify the vegetation index values in study area and predict the NDVI (Normal Different Vegetation Index) change trend. In order to learn the variance trend of NDVI and the relationships between NDVI and temperature, precipitation, and land cover in Hainan Island, in this paper, the average seasonal NDVI values of 18 representative stations in Hainan Island were derived by a standard 10-day composite NDVI generated from MODIS imagery. ArcGIS Geostatistical Analyst was applied to predict the seasonal NDVI change trend by the Kriging method in Hainan Island. The correlation of temperature, precipitation, and land cover with NDVI change was analyzed by correlation analysis method. The results showed that the Kriging method of ARCGIS Geostatistical Analyst was a good way to predict the NDVI change trend. Temperature has the primary influence on NDVI, followed by precipitation and land-cover in Hainan Island.

基于Arcpy的地震烈度等值线生成

根据高密度地震监测台网生成的实测烈度值,开发1套基于Arcpy的计算程序,利用ArcGIS平台提供的Geostatistical Analyst模块进行克里金插值,得到烈度等值线分布图。在程序功能实现基础上,选用震例进行检验。研究结果显示,对于研究区域内仪器烈度在Ⅱ度以上的地震,基于本程序绘制的等值线图能够直观反映震后烈度分布,可为震后快速评估震害影响提供参考依据。

Analyst Coverage,Forecasting Bias,and Corporate Innovation:Evidence from China

Due to information asymmetry and strategic innovation,firms often encounter challenges related to insufficient driving forces and low-quality innovation outcomes.Analysts always act as information intermediaries who help foster the advancement of corporate innovation activities and the conversion of innovation output.This study examines the impact of analyst coverage and forecasting bias on corporate innovation,employing data from China A-shared listed firms spanning the period 2007 to 2019.We measure corporate innovation from two perspectives:Input and output.Specifically,we use the ratio of research and development(R&D)expenditure to sales as a proxy for the innovation input and the number of patent citations excluding self-citations to measure innovation output.We find that analyst coverage promotes corporate innovation,which is consistent with the“bright”side of analyst coverage.However,the positive effect of analyst coverage hinges on effectively transmitting and disclosing accurate information to investors in the capital market.Based on this,analysts'forecasting bias includes forecasting dispersion and optimism bias.We find evidence that an increase in analysts'forecast dispersion leads to a decrease in corporate innovation quality.Moreover,this paper presents a novel approach by employing the regression discontinuity method to examine the effect of analyst optimistic bias on firm innovation.The empirical findings reveal that overly optimistic forecasts by analysts exacerbate innovation quality.These analyses enrich the research on analyst coverage and corporate innovation,providing an empirical basis for improving the capital market with the help of analysts.

基于DEM和ArcGIS的挖填土方量计算在净水厂设计中的应用

净水厂设计过程中,对原始地表向设计地表转化这一过程进行挖填土方量计算是一项重要的工作。在对国内外各领域现有的挖填土方量计算方法分析研究的基础上,利用DEM和ArcGIS空间分析模块,提出一种可用于净水厂设计中挖填土方量计算的新方法。将其应用于一个净水厂的设计实例,结果表明,利用该方法进行挖填土方量计算是高效和可行的。

起伏地形下地理可照时数空间分异分析——以重庆市为例

基于重庆市100m×100m分辨率的数字高程模型,利用Solar Analyst模型对各月份地理可照时数进行了模拟,并通过空间叠加运算进一步求得了季、年地理可照时数。季节和月地理可照时数变化表明重庆市夏季地理可照时数最长,以6月最高;冬季地理可照时数最小,以12月最低,地形遮蔽对可照时数的影响显著,可明显影响可照时数的局地空间分布。结合坡度、坡向因子,对起伏地形条件下地理可照时数模拟结果进行了时空分布特征分析。分析结果表明:同坡度不同坡向的地理可照时数都随着太阳高度角的增大而增加;同坡向的地理可照时数随着坡度的增加而减小;坡度越高地理可照时数受坡向影响程度越大。

起伏地形下潜在辐射资源空间分异研究

基于DEM数据,利用Solar Analyst模型对重庆市起伏地形下晴天太阳辐射进行了模拟。研究表明,夏季晴天太阳辐射量最大,以7月最高;冬季晴天太阳辐射量最小,以1月最低;各月晴天太阳总辐射受起伏地形影响的程度排序是:1月>10月>4月>7月;随着坡度的增加,太阳总辐射受坡向影响的程度呈增强趋势;从坡向上看,向阳坡太阳总辐射量明显高于背阴坡。