Fragipan Horizon Changes Using Annual Ryegrass and Other Admendments

A greenhouse experiment was conducted involving intact fragipan soil cores of 50 cm thickness after removing the topsoil horizons. The cores were maintained in moist condition throughout the experiment and received several treatments with various amendments for different periods ranging from 9 to 17 months. The amendments included annual ryegrass or Festulolium residues, powder limestone and various humate compounds alone or in combination with the grass residues. The results suggested a significant effect of ryegrass and Festulolium in reducing penetration resistance into the top 10 cm of the fragipan within 9 - 17 months, particularly when used in combination with certain humate materials such as Leonardite. Apparently, this is the result of the release of certain soluble organic compounds from the plant residues or the humate amendments that increase the solubility of Si and Al associated with the fragipan brittleness, thus decreasing the density of the compacted fragipan material.

The changes in the annual distribution of mountain runoff during the period of 1965-2018 in Hexi Corridor,Northwest China

The annual distribution characteristics of river runoff in arid regions have significant implications for water resource stability and management.Based on the mountain runoff data from 1965 to 2018,this study examines the annual change characteristics of monthly runoff of the Shiyang River Basin,Heihe River Basin,and Shule River Basin in the Hexi Corridor,Northwest China.Many indexes are used and analyzed,including the coefficient of variance,the complete regulation coefficient,the concentration degree and concentration period,the magnitude of change,the skewness coefficient,and the kurtosis coefficient of the annual distribution curves.The results reveal the following:(1)The inhomogeneity of annual runoff distribution in the Taolai River and the rivers to the west of it,except the Shiyou River,show an increasing trend.Conversely,the inhomogeneity of the rivers to the east of the Taolai River generally show a downward trend,but the coefficient of variance value is still very high.(2)In the Shiyang River Basin,the annual distribution of the concentration period is characterized by a relatively discrete pattern.Conversely,the Heihe River Basin exhibits a relatively concentrated pattern,and the distribution pattern of the Shule River Basin is quite different.Notably,all concentration periods in the three basins have shifted backward after the 2000s.(3)The Shiyang River Basin exhibits disordered annual distribution curves of runoff in different years.In contrast,the Heihe River Basin presents a typical‘single-peak’pattern with a prominent right-skewed.The Shule River Basin has regular distribution curves,with a gradually significant‘double-peak’pattern from east to west.Overall,there has been a slight change in runoff in the Shiyang River Basin,while the Heihe River Basin and Shule River Basin have experienced significant increases in runoff.The annual distribution curves of runoff in the Liyuan River and the rivers to the east of it exhibit a gentle peak pattern,and the appearance probability of extreme runoff during the year is low.Conversely,the rivers to the west of the Liyuan River,excluding the Danghe River,display a sharp peak and thick tail pattern,indicating that the appearance probability of extreme runoff during the year is high.These findings have practical implications for the planning and management of water resources in the Hexi Corridor.Moreover,they provide a solid foundation for predicting future changes in regional water resources.

Relationship between longitudinal changes in lipid composition and ischemic stroke among hypertensive patients

BACKGROUND Dyslipidemia was strongly linked to stroke,however the relationship between dyslipidemia and its components and ischemic stroke remained unexplained.AIM To investigate the link between longitudinal changes in lipid profiles and dyslipidemia and ischemic stroke in a hypertensive population.METHODS Between 2013 and 2014,6094 hypertension individuals were included in this,and ischemic stroke cases were documented to the end of 2018.Longitudinal changes of lipid were stratified into four groups:(1)Normal was transformed into normal group;(2)Abnormal was transformed into normal group;(3)Normal was transformed into abnormal group;and(4)Abnormal was transformed into abnormal group.To examine the link between longitudinal changes in dyslipidemia along with its components and the risk of ischemic stroke,we utilized multivariate Cox proportional hazards models with hazard ratio(HR)and 95%CI.RESULTS The average age of the participants was 62.32 years±13.00 years,with 329 women making up 54.0%of the sample.Over the course of a mean follow-up of 4.8 years,143 ischemic strokes happened.When normal was transformed into normal group was used as a reference,after full adjustments,the HR for dyslipidemia and ischemic stroke among abnormal was transformed into normal group,normal was transformed into abnormal group and abnormal was transformed into abnormal Wei CC et al.Dyslipidemia changed and ischemic stroke WJCC https://www.wjgnet.com 2 February 6,2025 Volume 13 Issue 4 group were 1.089(95%CI:0.598-1.982;P=0.779),2.369(95%CI:1.424-3.941;P<0.001)and 1.448(95%CI:1.002-2.298;P=0.047)(P for trend was 0.233),respectively.CONCLUSION In individuals with hypertension,longitudinal shifts from normal to abnormal in dyslipidemia-particularly in total and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol-were significantly associated with the risk of ischemic stroke.

Macular microvascular and structural changes on optical coherence tomography angiography in atypical optic neuritis

BACKGROUND Atypical optic neuritis,consisting of neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders(NMOSD)or myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein antibody disease(MOGAD),has a very similar presentation but different prognostic implications and longterm management strategies.Vascular and metabolic factors are being thought to play a role in such autoimmune neuro-inflammatory disorders,apart from the obvious immune mediated damage.With the advent of optical coherence tomography angiography(OCTA),it is easy to pick up on these subclinical macular microvascular and structural changes.AIM To study the macular microvascular and structural changes on OCTA in atypical optic neuritis.METHODS This observational cross-sectional study involved 8 NMOSD and 17 MOGAD patients,diagnosed serologically,as well as 10 healthy controls.Macular vascular density(MVD)and ganglion cell+inner plexiform layer thickness(GCIPL)were studied using OCTA.RESULTS There was a significant reduction in MVD in NMOSD and MOGAD affected as well as unaffected eyes when compared with healthy controls.NMOSD and MOGAD affected eyes had significant GCIPL thinning compared with healthy controls.NMOSD unaffected eyes did not show significant GCIPL thinning compared to healthy controls in contrast to MOGAD unaffected eyes.On comparing NMOSD with MOGAD,there was no significant difference in terms of MVD or GCIPL in the affected or unaffected eyes.CONCLUSION Although significant microvascular and structural changes are present on OCTA between atypical optic neuritis and normal patients,they could not help in differentiating between NMOSD and MOGAD cases.

Impact assessment of climate change and human activities on annual highest water level of Taihu Lake

The annual highest water level of Taihu Lake （Zm） is very significant for flood management in the Taihu Basin. This paper first describes the inter-annual and intra-annual traits of Zm from 1956 to 2000. Then, using the Mann-Kenall （MK） and Spearman （SP） nonparametric tests, the long-term change trends of area precipitation and pan evaporation in the Taihu Basin are determined. Meanwhile, using the Morlet wavelet transformation, the fluctuation patterns and change points of precipitation and pan evaporation are analyzed. Also, human activities in the Taihu Basin are described, including land use change and hydraulic project construction. Finally, the relationship between Zm, the water level of Taihu Lake 30 days prior to the day of Zm （Z0）, and the 30-day total precipitation and pan evaporation prior to the day of Zm （P and E0, respectively） is described based on multi-linear regression equations. The relative influence of climate change and human activities on the change of Zm is quantitatively ascertained. The results demonstrate that： （1） Zm was distinctly higher during the 1980-2000 period than during the 1956-1979 period, and the 30 days prior to the day of Zm are the key phase influencing Zm every year; （2） P increased significantly at a confidence level of 95% during the 1956-2000 period, while the reverse was true for E0; （3） The relationship between Zm, P and E0 distinctly changed after 1980; （4） Climate change and human activities together caused frequent occurrences of high Zm after 1980; （5） Climate change caused a substantially greater Zm difference between the 1956-1979 and 1980-2000 periods than human activities. Climate change, as represented by P and E0, was the dominant factor raising Zm, with a relative influence ratio of 83.6%, while human activities had a smaller influence ratio of 16.4%.

Documented changes in annual runoff and attribution since the 1950s within selected rivers in China

To enable local water resource management and maintenance of ecosystem integrity and to protect and mitigate against flood and drought, it is necessary to determine changes in long-term series of streamflow and to distinguish the roles that climate change and human disturbance play in these changes. A review of previous research on the detection and attribution of observed changes in annual runoff in China shows a decrease in annual runoff since the 1950s in northern China in areas such as the Songhuajiang River water resources zone, the Liaohe River water resources zone, the Haihe River water resources zone, the Yellow River water resources zone, and the Huaihe River water resources Zone. Furthermore, abrupt changes in annual runoff occurred mostly in the 1970s and 1980s in all the above zones, except for some of the sub-basins in the middle Yellow River where abrupt change occurred in the 1990s. Changes in annual runoff are found to be mainly caused by climate change in the western Songhuajiang River basin, the upper mainstream of the Yangtze River, and the western Pearl River basin, which shows that studies on the impact of climate change on future water resources under different climate change scenarios are required to enable planning and management by agencies in these river basins. However, changes in annual runoff were found to be mainly caused by human activities in most of the catchments in northern China (such as the southern Songhuajiang River, Liaohe River, Haihe River, the lower reach and some of the catchments within the middle Yellow River basin) and in middle-eastern China, such as the Huaihe River and lower mainstream of the Yangtze River. This suggests that current hydro-climatic data can continue to be used in water-use planning and that policymakers need to focus on water resource management and protection.

The Role of Changes in the Annual Cycle in Earlier Onset of Climatic Spring in Northern China

Climatic changes in the onset of spring in northern China associated with changes in the annual cycle and with a recent warming trend were quantified using a recently developed adaptive data analysis tool, the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition. The study was based on a homogenized daily surface air temperature （SAT） dataset for the period 1955–2003. The annual cycle here is referred to as a refined modulated annual cycle （MAC）. The results show that spring at Beijing has arrived significantly earlier by about 2.98 d （10 yr）-1, of which about 1.85 d （10 yr）-1 is due to changes in the annual cycle and 1.13 d （10 yr）-1 due to the long-term warming trend. Variations in the MAC component explain about 92.5% of the total variance in the Beijing daily SAT series and could cause as much as a 20-day shift in the onset of spring from one year to another. The onset of spring has been advancing all over northern China, but more significant in the east than in the west part of the region. These differences are somehow unexplainable by the zonal pattern of the warming trend over the whole region, but can be explained by opposite changes in the spring phase of the MAC, i.e. advancing in the east while delaying in the west. In the east of northern China, the change in the spring phase of MAC explains 40%–60% of the spring onset trend and is attributable to a weakening Asian winter monsoon. The average sea level pressure in Siberia （55°–80°N, 50°–110°E）, an index of the strength of the winter monsoon, could serve as a potential short-term predictor for the onset of spring in the east of northern China.

Annual change of the gonadal development of the amphioxus in Xiamen

The study was made by observing the annual change of the gonadal development of amphioxus in Xiamen cohtinuously for two years from November, 1986 to November, 1988. We determined the gonadal diameter, gonadosomatic index of each amphioxus, and observed the histological characteristic of the gonadal development of the female and male by cut section, which provided the basis for dividing the stages gonads and the determining level of the gonadal development of amphioxus in each month.

Interannual Variability of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index on the Tibetan Plateau and Its Relationship with Climate Change

The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, or Tibetan Plateau, is a sensitive region for climate change, where the manifestation of global warming is particularly noticeable. The wide climate variability in this region significantly affects the local land ecosystem and could consequently lead to notable vegetation changes. In this paper, the interannual variations of the plateau vegetation are investigated using a 21-year normalized difference vegetation index （NDVI） dataset to quantify the consequences of climate warming for the regional ecosystem and its interactions. The results show that vegetation coverage is best in the eastern and southern plateau regions and deteriorates toward the west and north. On the whole, vegetation activity demonstrates a gradual enhancement in an oscillatory manner during 1982-2002. The temporal variation also exhibits striking regional differences： an increasing trend is most apparent in the west, south, north and southeast, whereas a decreasing trend is present along the southern plateau boundary and in the central-east region. Covariance analysis between the NDVI and surface temperature/precipitation suggests that vegetation change is closely related to climate change. However, the controlling physical processes vary geographically. In the west and east, vegetation variability is found to be driven predominantly by temperature, with the impact of precipitation being of secondary importance. In the central plateau, however, temperature and precipitation factors are equally important in modulating the interannual vegetation variability.

Annual integral changes of time serial NDVI in mining subsidence area

By means of MORTRAN4 model of FLASSH module, an atmospheric correction of the SPOT II/IV data of four-year period for eight experimental coal faces of Lu'an mine area was done. The mining-affected zones were obtained with probability integral method. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and its mean were obtained by band ratio calculation at the mining subsidence area. Using FOURIER4 model of the fast Fourier transform (FFT) of discrete Fourier analysis theory, the mean NDVI time series data set was reconstructed. With the mean of NDVI transformed into amplitude and the phonological information transformed into phase, the law of NDVI variation by monthly, quarterly, annual were obtained. The annual integral of the time series of NDVI Fourier function (ANDVI) was obtained. The results show that an experience formula of ANDVI variation accompanies with mining time; A fast estimation formula of NPP by means of a coefficient of mining disturbance such as γ.

The influence of changes in the degree and frequency of disturbance on the annual salt marsh plant (<i>Suaeda maritima, Artemisia fukudo</i>) communities in estuarine tidal flats: A case study of the Kushida River in Mie Prefecture, Japan

In this study, we examined the influence of changes in the degree and frequency of disturbance in estuarine tidal flats on the annual salt marsh plant communities (Suaeda maritima, Artemisia fukudo) in Mie Prefecture, Japan. Suaeda maritima and Artemisia fukudo communities occur in the branch river of the Kushida River. Although the areas occupied by these communities were very small in 2006, the Suaeda maritima community expanded significantly to 3609 m2 in 2008, and the Artemisia fukudo community expanded significantly to 2726 m2 in 2008 and 10,396 m2 in 2010. Before the onset of the investigation period in 2006, the overflow warning water level (3.5 m) and the flood fighting corps standby water level (3.0 m) each occurred on one day in August 2004 and October 2004, respectively;at those times, the water volume exceeded 1000 m3·s-1 and 1500 m3·s-1, respectively. We suggest that because much of the estuarine tidal flat erodes when the water volume exceeds 1000 m3·s&#451, the establishment of the Suaeda maritima and Artemisia fukudo communities is delayed until sufficient substrate is formed by the deposition of new sediment. In contrast, a water level of 2 - 3 m was observed on one day each in 2005, 2007 and 2009, with average water volumes of 488.5, 566.4 and 690.1 m3·s-1, respectively. We suggest that following the repeated disturbances caused by water levels of 1 - 3 m and flow volumes of 500 - 700 m3·s-1 over the bare ground exposed after flooding and erosion, Suaeda maritima is a pioneer species that colonizes on bare ground deposited by sediment transported from upstream and the sea during high tides, and following the same level of disturbance, Artemisia fukudo is secondary colonizer that has germinated and grown on the sediment deposited on the Suaeda maritima community.

Asian Hydroclimate Changes and Mechanisms in the Preboreal from an Annually-laminated Stalagmite, Daoguan Cave, Southern China

One-year-resolved and annually-counted stalagmite multi-proxies （j180, ~13C, and layer width） from Daoguan Cave, Guizhou Province revealed detailed variability regarding the Asian Summer Monsoon （ASM） and local humidity across Bond events （BE） in the PreboreaL During BEs 8 and 7, 1.5%o enrichments in jlSo values were generally consistent with high- to low-latitude climate changes. In detail, the decadal-scale minor j180 oscillations in BE8 were broadly less than the mean value, in contrast to the significant changes in local soil moisture derived from the j13C values and layer records. In the mid-BE7, jlSo variability was generally above the average level, and higher- amplitude variations were observed in the three proxy indicators. Wavelet analysis on the total jlSo time series and across the specific time windows of BEs 8 and 7 identified periodicities of about 130, 60, and 20-a, respectively. Exceptionally strong in BE7, the 60-a cycle, pervasively observed in instrumental studies, became prominent starting at 11.4 kaBP. Thus, glacial background conditions are important for suppressing the ASM intensity in BE8, while during BE7, tropical hydrological circulations were potentially actively involved. Consequently, climate internal oscillations, analogous to modern conditions, might have occurred in the distant past once the link between the tropical ocean and atmosphere was established as occurs today.

Decadal Changes in Interannual Dependence of the Bay of Bengal Summer Monsoon Onset on ENSO Modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Interannual variations of the Bay of Bengal summer monsoon (BOBSM) onset in association with El Ni-o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are reexamined using NCEP1, JRA-55 and ERA20C atmospheric and Hadley sea surface temperature (SST) reanalysis datasets over the period 1900-2017. Decadal changes exist in the dependence of the BOBSM onset on ENSO, varying with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). A higher correlation between the BOBSM onset and ENSO arises during the warm PDO epochs, with distinct late (early) onsets following El Ni-o (La Ni-a) events. In contrast, less significant correlations occur during the cold PDO epochs. The mechanism for the PDO modulating the ENSO-BOBSM onset relationship is through the variations in SST anomaly (SSTA) patterns. During the warm PDO epochs, the superimpositions of the PDO-related and ENSO-related SSTAs lead to the SSTA distribution of an El Ni-o (La Ni-a) event exhibiting significant positive (negative) SSTAs over the tropical central-eastern Pacific and Indian Ocean along with negative (positive) SSTAs, especially over the tropical western Pacific (TWP), forming a strong zonal interoceanic SSTA gradient between the TWP and tropical Indian Ocean. Significant anomalous lower tropospheric easterlies (westerlies) together with upper-tropospheric westerlies (easterlies) are thus induced over the BOB, favoring an abnormally late (early) BOBSM onset. During the cold PDO epochs, however, the superimpositions of PDO-related SSTAs with El Ni-o-related (La Ni-a-related) SSTAs lead to insignificant SSTAs over the TWP and a weak zonal SSTA gradient, without distinct circulation anomalies over the BOB favoring early or late BOBSM onsets.

Contributions to the Interannual Summer Rainfall Variability in the Mountainous Area of Central China and Their Decadal Changes

Using a high-resolution precipitation dataset,the present study detected that the mountainous area of central China(MACA)is a hotspot of ENSO’s impact on the summer rainfall variability.Further analysis suggests that both ENSO and atmospheric forcing make contributions to the summer rainfall variability in MACA.The dominant rainfall-related SST mode features as a seasonal transition from an El Niño-like warming in the preceding winter to a La Nina-like cooling in the following autumn,and it explains about 29%of the total variance of the rainfall during 1951–2018.It indicates that ENSO with a rapid phase transition is responsible for inducing summer rainfall anomalies in MACA.Besides,an upperlevel circumglobal wave mode in the Northern Hemisphere during summer also explains about 29%of the summer rainfall variance.Contributions of both the SST and the atmospheric modes have experienced interdecadal changes.The influence of the SST mode gradually increases and plays a dominant role in the recent decades,suggesting that ENSO with a rapid phase transition becomes more important for rainfall prediction in MACA.

Monitoring Intra-annual Spatiotemporal Changes in Urban Heat Islands in 1449 Cities in China Based on Remote Sensing

This study aimed to accurately study the intra-annual spatiotemporal variation in the surface urban heat island intensities(SUHIIs) in 1449 cities in China.First, China was divided into five environmental regions.Then, the SUHIIs were accurately calculated based on the modified definitions of the city extents and their corresponding nearby rural areas.Finally, we explored the spatiotemporal variation of the mean, maximum, and minimum values, and ranges of SUHIIs from several aspects.The results showed that larger annual mean daytime SUHIIs occurred in hot-humid South China and cold-humid northeastern China, and the smallest occurred in arid and semiarid west China.The seasonal order of the SUHIIs was summer > spring > autumn > winter in all the temperate regions except west China.The SUHIIs were obviously larger during the rainy season than the dry season in the tropical region.Nevertheless, significant differences were not observed between the two seasons within the rainy or dry periods.During the daytime, the maximum SUHIIs mostly occurred in summer in each region, while the minimum occurred in winter.A few cold island phenomena existed during the nighttime.The maximum SUHIIs were generally significantly positively correlated with the minimum SUHIIs during the daytime, nighttime and all-day in all environmental regions throughout the year and the four seasons.Moreover, significant correlation scarcely existed between the daytime and nighttime ranges of the SUHIIs.In addition, the daytime SUHIIs were also insignificantly correlated with the nighttime SUHIIs in half of the cases.

Trend Analysis in Annual and Monthly Pan Evaporation and Pan Coefficient in the Context of Climate Change in Togo

Trend analysis was performed for the long-term measured pan evaporation and estimated pan coefficient for 4 meteorological stations during 1976-2011 in Togo. Measured pan evaporation was recorded at four meteorological stations in Togo for the global period of 1976 to 2011 at Lome, Tabligbo, Atakpame, and Sokode. ETo was estimated using the Penman-Monteith model. The Mann-Kendall test was used for trend analysis. The results showed that annual Epan varied from 1803 to 2081 mm at Lome, from 1294 to 1496 mm at Tabligbo, from 1605 to 1974 mm at Atakpame and from 1839 to 1990 mm at Sokode. It had significant increasing trend at Lome, Tabligbo, and Sokode and a negative trend at Atakpame. Monthly Epan varied from 137 to 197 mm at Lome, 89 to 149 mm at Tabligbo, 137 to 214 mm at Atakpame and from 137 to 190 mm at Sokode. At Lome, Kpan varied from 0.61 to 1.17 and averaged 0.81. At Tabligbo, Kpan varied from 0.59 to 0.98 and averaged 0.75. At Atakpame, Kpan varied from 0.5 to 2.0 and averaged 1.12. At Sokode, Kpan varied from 0.43 to 1.92 and averaged 0.98. Monthly mean Kpan is recommended for use in hydrological studies, irrigation scheduling and water management in Togo.

Simulated Change in the Interannual Variability of South Asian Summer Monsoon in the 21st Century

This study investigates the projected changes in interannual variability of South Asian summer monsoon and changes of ENSO–monsoon relationships in the 21st century under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） scenarios A1B and A2, respectively, by analyzing the simulated results of twelve Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 （CMIP3） coupled models. The dynamical monsoon index （DMI） was adopted to describe the interannual variability of South Asian summer monsoon, and the standard deviation （SD） was used to illustrate the intensity of interannual variability. It was found that most models could project enhanced interannual variability of monsoon in the 21st century. The multi-model ensemble （MME） results showed increases in the interannual variability of DMI： 14.3% and 20.0% under scenarios A1B and A2, respectively. The MME result also showed increases in the rainfall variability are of about 10.2% and 22.0% under scenarios A1B and A2. The intensification of interannual variability tended to occur over the regions that have larger variability currently; that is, ＂the strong get stronger＂. Another finding was that ENSO–monsoon relationships are likely to be enhanced in the 21st century. The dynamical component of the monsoon will be more closely correlated to ENSO in the future under global warming, although the ENSO–summer rainfall relationship cannot be reasonably projected by current models. This suggests that the South Asian summer monsoon is more predictable in the future, at least dynamically.

Average Annual Temperature Changes in the Holocene in China

Abstract: In 1876 Blytt proposed a post-glacial climatic classification, maintaining that the then temperature fluctuated 1–2°C higher or lower than that today. Lamb (1969) held that in Europe “the axis of the subtropical high pressure belt was generally displaced north by about 10° latitudes” during the Hypsithermal and that the temperature was three to six times higher than that in the postglacial period.

Optimum Distribution of Two Different Phase Change Materials between Various Components of Roof Air-Conditioned Room, Suitable to Reduce Annual Energy Consumption

Obviously, the outside annual climate change caused either by a major solar input during the hottest period or by a temperature drop during the coldest period leads to discomfort in inside buildings. This effect can be reduced by storing heat transmitted in phase change materials (PCM) as latent heat, in order to ensure a good situation of thermal comfort during all months of the year. In this work, thermal behavior of two roofing systems is studied. One roof is constituted only by usual materials in building. In the other, two phase change materials (PCM) are introduced according to three configurations. Study is interested to assess incorporation effect of two PCMs within the roof and to evaluate the optimum locations to reduce the energy consumption of air-conditioned room. Mono-dimensional numerical model validated analytically and experimentally, is used to carry out a parametric analyzes to determine characteristics of the layers in which the roofs are formed regardless of external climate effect. Numerical calculations are performed for three configurations of roof. Results show that insertion of phase change materials in roof provides best energy consumption saving regardless annual climate change. Generally, the three configurations lead to different results, depending on the combination of PCMs. This difference becomes less important when selection of PCMs take account the thermal comfort level and temperatures of hottest and coldest periods.

Quantifying the Contribution of Track Changes to Interannual Variations of North Atlantic Intense Hurricanes

Previous studies have linked interannual variability of tropical cyclone(TC)intensity in the North Atlantic basin(NA)to Sahelian rainfall,vertical shear of the environmental flow,and relative sea surface temperature(SST).In this study,the contribution of TC track changes to the interannual variations of intense hurricane activity in the North Atlantic basin is evaluated through numerical experiments.It is found that that observed interannual variations of the frequency of intense hurricanes during the period 1958–2017 are dynamically consistent with changes in the large-scale ocean/atmosphere environment.Track changes can account for~50%of the interannual variability of intense hurricanes,while no significant difference is found for individual environmental parameters between active and inactive years.The only significant difference between active and inactive years is in the duration of TC intensification in the region east of 60°W.The duration increase is not due to the slow-down of TC translation.In active years,a southeastward shift of the formation location in the region east of 60°W causes TCs to take a westward prevailing track,which allows TCs to have a longer opportunity for intensification.On the other hand,most TCs in inactive years take a recurving track,leading to a shorter duration of intensification.This study suggests that the influence of track changes should be considered to understand the basin-wide intensity changes in the North Atlantic basin on the interannual time scale.