A new car-following model considering velocity anticipation

The full velocity difference model proposed by Jiang et al. [2001 Phys. Rev. E 64 017101] has been improved by introducing velocity anticipation. Velocity anticipation means the follower estimates the future velocity of the leader. The stability condition of the new model is obtained by using the linear stability theory. Theoretical results show that the stability region increases when we increase the anticipation time interval. The mKdV equation is derived to describe the kink-antikink soliton wave and obtain the coexisting stability line. The delay time of car motion and kinematic wave speed at jam density are obtained in this modeh Numerical simulations exhibit that when we increase the anticipation time interval enough, the new model could avoid accidents under urgent braking cases. Also, the traffic jam could be suppressed by considering the anticipation velocity. All results demonstrate that this model is an improvement on the full velocity difference model.

Anticipation,anti-glaucoma drug treatment response and phenotype of a Chinese family with glaucoma caused by the Pro370Leu myocilin mutation

AIM: To describe the anticipation and anti-glaucoma drugs response of a Chinese family with juvenile-onset open angle glaucoma(JOAG) caused by the Pro370Leu myocilin(MYOC) mutation. ·METHODS: Fifteen members of a three-generation Chinese family with JOAG were recruited to this study. They all underwent ophthalmic common examinations. Patients suspected to have JOAG got an assessment of visual field and optical coherence tomography. Intraocular pressures(IOPs) of four patients were measured at 8,10,12,14,17 o’clock respectively after using anti-glaucoma drugs. Mutation screening of all MYOC gene coding exons of the participants was performed by using direct sequencing of PCR products. ·RESULTS: Clinical examinations and pedigree analysis revealed eight family members were suffered from JOAG. Apparent genetics anticipation phenomenon was observed in this family. Their clinical features included elevated IOP of 35-55mmHg,loss of visual field,thinning of retinal nerve fiber layer,and glaucomatous optic disc damage. Noticeably,their intraocular pressure levels could be controlled within normal range at 8 and 10 o’clock by anti-glaucoma drugs,but their IOPs would elevate 】21mmHg after 12 o’clock. Seven patients received trabeculectomy produced thin-walled,pale,and saccate filtering blebs maintaining lower intraocular pressure efficiently. Mutation screening indentified aheterozygous C→T missense mutation in the MYOC gene at position 1 109 in exon 3,corresponding to a substitution of a highly conserved proline to leucine at codon 370 in the olfactomedin domain of MYOC. ·CONCLUSION: The clinical characteristics of JOAG in this family were 1) genetics anticipation; 2) high IOP; 3) temporay response to anti-glaucoma drugs; 4) filtering surgery produced thin-walled and saccate filtering blebs,helping maintain lower IOP.

Density waves in a lattice hydrodynamic traffic flow model with the anticipation effect

By introducing the traffic anticipation effect in the real world into the original lattice hydrodynamic model, we present a new anticipation effect lattice hydrodynamic （AELH） model, and obtain the linear stability condition of the model by applying the linear stability theory. Through nonlinear analysis, we derive the Burgers equation and Korteweg-de Vries （KdV） equation, to describe the propagating behaviour of traffic density waves in the stable and the metastable regions, respectively. The good agreement between simulation results and analytical results shows that the stability of traffic flow can be enhanced when the anticipation effect is considered.

Anticipation phenomenon in familial adenomatous polyposis:an analysis of its origin

AIM To analyze the origin of the anticipationphenomenon,which means earlier death insuccessive generation in familial adenomatouspolyposis.METHODS The study subjects were 2161patients with familial adenomatous polyposisand their 7465 first-degree relatives who weremembers of 750 families registered at ourPolyposis Registry.The ages at death andcumulative mortality rates in the parent,theproband,and the child generations werecompared for both all subjects and the patientsalone.RESULTS In the patients over 5 years of age,the mean age at death was 50.9 years for theparent,42.3 years for the proband,and 33.3years for the child generations,respectively(P【0.001).The deceased rates in the threegenerations were 90.7%,51.3% and 23.1% ofthe patients,respectively,and this differencewas the main cause of the anticipation measuredby parent-child paring method.The cumulativemortality rates for all subjects failed to showanticipation,however the cumulative mortalityrates for the patients showed the anticipation.The anticipation phenomenon was shown by anyparent-child pairing methods for the deceasedpatients.Other important causes of theanticipation were different proportion of causesof death between generations(P【0.001),and alow proportion of detected or deceased patients (P【0.001)in the child generation.CONCLUSION Anticipation in familialadenomatous polyposis may be caused byparent-child paring methods as well as severalintergenerational biases.

Velocity anticipation in the optimal velocity model

In this paper, the velocity anticipation in the optimal velocity model （OVM） is investigated. The driver adjusts the velocity of his vehicle by the desired headway, which depends on both instantaneous headway and relative velocity. The effect of relative velocity is measured by a sensitivity function. A specific form of the sensitivity function is supposed and the involved parameters are determined by the both numerical simulation and empirical data. It is shown that inclusion of velocity anticipation enhances the stability of traffic flow. Numerical simulations show a good agreement with empirical data. This model provides a better description of real traffic, including the acceleration process from standing states and the deceleration process approaching a stopped car.

The Bionic Anticipation of Natural Disasters

After major natural disasters, such as the recent earthquake-tsunami event in South Asia, reports appear about the mysterious ability of animals to anticipate and to escape the impending danger. This is an opportunity to recall the long history of this phenomenon in the traditions of different civilizations, to evaluate Chinese efforts, 30-40 years ago, to use this phenomenon for earthquake prediction, and to judge its state of acceptance in modem science. An effort is made to introduce this phenomenon as a research field of modem bionics. The timing is favorable since, increasingly, infrared thermal anomalies, monitored from satellite, suggesting litho-atmospheric processes, are found to precede earthquakes. They were unexpected by seismologists and are here suggested to essentially reflect the energy conversion patterns responsible for the signals monitored by animals. The aim is to learn from animals in the long term how natural disasters can better be anticipated, and how simple technical warning systems can be developed. Some challenges are analyzed. One is interpretation of the nature of energy release prior to the main earthquake disaster resulting in ＂macro-anomaly＂ precursors, another is better to understand the effect on animal senses. The role of non-linear cooperative phenomena including tsunamitype waves is emphasized.

Stochastic Optimization of Dual Constraints with Anticipation

A stochastic control model is studied.The objective of the investor is to maximize expected utility from terminalconsumption.However,the investor possesses informa-tion about the terminal values of the components of the Brownian motion which drives securities’prices.With the method of stochastic control being applied,investor’s optimal decision is obtained.Especially,the logarith-

Generalized Anticipation Effect Models for Traffic Flow

Taking into account the startup behaviour of following vehicles in the waiting area of urban traffic signal, we propose an extended Nagel-Schreckenberg model for single-lane traffic flow, in which the dynamic behavior of each vehicle depends on not only its own headway but also the headway of the immediately preceding one. The numerical simulation of the present model reproduces some complicated nonlinear phenomena observed in real traffic such as free flow, ghostly blockage, synchronized flow and so on. For specific parameter combinations the flow-density relation of this model shows two meta-stable branches near the transition density from free flow to wide moving traffic jam. Finally, the analytical results of the model under some specific parameters are given by using the mean field theory.

Role of telomere shortening in anticipation of inflammatory bowel disease

BACKGROUND The existence of genetic anticipation has been long disputed in inflammatory bowel disease(IBD)in the absence of the explanatory mechanism.AIM To determine whether it was predictive of genetic anticipation,we evaluated telomere length in IBD.We hypothesized that multiplex IBD families exhibit a genetic defect impacting telomere maintenance mechanisms.METHODS We studied three IBD families with multiple affected members in three successive generations.We determined telomere length(TL)in lymphocytes and granulocytes from peripheral blood of the affected members using flow cytometry and fluorescence in-situ hybridization(flow FISH).We also performed whole exome sequencing in the blood of all available family members and used PhenoDB to identify potential candidate gene variants with recessive or dominant modes of inheritance.RESULTS Out of twenty-four patients of European descent selected to participate in the study,eleven patients,eight parent-child pairs affected by IBD,were included in the genetic anticipation analysis.Median difference in age at diagnosis between two successive generations was 16.5 years,with earlier age at onset in the younger generations.In most of the affected members,the disease harbored similar gastrointestinal and extraintestinal involvement but was more aggressive among the younger generations.TL was not associated with earlier age at onset or more severe disease in members of successive generations affected by IBD.NOD2 gene mutations were present in the Crohn’s disease patients of one family.However,no gene variants were identified as potential candidates for inheritance.CONCLUSION Telomere shortening appears unlikely to be involved in mechanisms of possible genetic anticipation in IBD.Further studies using a larger sample size are required to confirm or refute our findings.

Relation Between Both Sides of the Taiwan StraitsIn Anticipation of the Trends of Its Development

In the issue of January, 2002, the magazine "Relation Between Both Sides of the Taiwan Straits" published by the Association of the Relation Between the Both Sides of the Taiwan Straits, a signed essay was carried out, stating that the development of the relation between the both sides last year, anticipates the trends of such relation in the future.

New scheme of anticipating synchronization for arbitrary anticipation time and its application to long-term prediction of chaotic states

How to predict the dynamics of nonlinear chaotic systems is still a challenging subject with important real-life applications. The present paper deals with this important yet difficult problem via a new scheme of anticipating synchronization. A global, robust, analytical and delay-independent sufficient condition is obtained to guarantee the existence of anticipating synchronization manifold theoretically in the framework of the Krasovskii-Lyapunov theory. Different from ＇traditional techniques （or regimes）＇ proposed in the previous literature, the present scheme guarantees that the receiver system can synchronize with the future state of a transmitter system for an arbitrarily long anticipation time, which allows one to predict the dynamics of chaotic transmitter at any point of time if necessary. Also it is simple to implement in practice. A classical chaotic system is employed to demonstrate the application of the proposed scheme to the long-term prediction of chaotic states.

Weakly supervised action anticipation without object annotations

Anticipating future actions without observing any partial videos of future actions plays an important role in action prediction and is also a challenging task.To obtain abundant information for action anticipation,some methods integrate multimodal contexts,including scene object labels.However,extensively labelling each frame in video datasets requires considerable effort.In this paper,we develop a weakly supervised method that integrates global motion and local finegrained features from current action videos to predict next action label without the need for specific scene context labels.Specifically,we extract diverse types of local features with weakly supervised learning,including object appearance and human pose representations without ground truth.Moreover,we construct a graph convolutional network for exploiting the inherent relationships of humans and objects under present incidents.We evaluate the proposed model on two datasets,the MPII-Cooking dataset and the EPIC-Kitchens dataset,and we demonstrate the generalizability and effectiveness of our approach for action anticipation.

用于学习和解释行人预期行为的群体交互场

Anticipating others’actions is innate and essential in order for humans to navigate and interact well with others in dense crowds.This ability is urgently required for unmanned systems such as service robots and self-driving cars.However,existing solutions struggle to predict pedestrian anticipation accurately,because the influence of group-related social behaviors has not been well considered.While group relationships and group interactions are ubiquitous and significantly influence pedestrian anticipation,their influence is diverse and subtle,making it difficult to explicitly quantify.Here,we propose the group interaction field(GIF),a novel group-aware representation that quantifies pedestrian anticipation into a probability field of pedestrians’future locations and attention orientations.An end-to-end neural network,GIFNet,is tailored to estimate the GIF from explicit multidimensional observations.GIFNet quantifies the influence of group behaviors by formulating a group interaction graph with propagation and graph attention that is adaptive to the group size and dynamic interaction states.The experimental results show that the GIF effectively represents the change in pedestrians’anticipation under the prominent impact of group behaviors and accurately predicts pedestrians’future states.Moreover,the GIF contributes to explaining various predictions of pedestrians’behavior in different social states.The proposed GIF will eventually be able to allow unmanned systems to work in a human-like manner and comply with social norms,thereby promoting harmonious human-machine relationships.

Parallel Error Detection for Leading Zero Anticipation

The algorithm and its implementation of the leading zero anticipation （LZA） are very vital for the performance of a high-speed floating-point adder in today＇s state of art microprocessor design. Unfortunately, in predicting ＂shift amount＂ by a conventional LZA design, the result could be off by one position. This paper presents a novel parallel error detection algorithm for a general-case LZA. The proposed approach enables parallel execution of conventional LZA and its error detection, so that the error-indicatlon signal can be generated earlier in the stage of normalization, thus reducing the critical path and improving overall performance. The circuit implementation of this algorithm also shows its advantages of area and power compared with other previous work.

Egocentric Action Anticipation Based on Unsupervised Gaze Estimation

Gaze information is important for finding region of interest(ROI)which implies where the next action will happen.Supervised gaze estimation does not work on EPIC-Kitchens for lack of ground truth.In this paper,we develop an unsupervised gaze estimation method that helps with egocentric action anticipation.We adopt gaze map as a feature representation,and input it into a multiple modality network jointly with red-green-blue(RGB),optical flow and object features.We explore the method on EGTEA dataset.The estimated gaze map is further optimized with dilation and Gaussian filter,masked onto the original RGB frame and encoded as the important gaze modality.Our results outperform the strong baseline Rolling-Unrolling LSTMs(RULSTM),with top-5 accuracy achieving 34.31%on the seen test set(S1)and 22.07%on unseen test set(S2).The accuracy is improved by 0.58%and 0.87%,respectively.

A Lattice Hydrodynamic Model for Trafc Flow Accounting for Driver Anticipation Efect of the Next-Nearest-Neighbor Site

In this paper, a new lattice hydrodynamic model is proposed by incorporating the driver anticipation effect of next-nearest-neighbor site. The linear stability analysis and nonlinear analysis show that the driver anticipation effect of next-nearest-neighbor site can enlarge the stable area of traffic flow. The space can be divided into three regions： stab/e, metastable, and unstable. Numerical simulation further illuminates that the driver anticipation effect of the next-neaxest-neighbor site can stabilize tramc flow in our modified lattice model, which is consistent with the analytical results.

Stable anticipation synchronization in mutually coupled vertical-cavity surface-emitting lasers system

Two vertical-cavity surface-emitting lasers（VCSELs） are mutually coupled through a partially transparent mirror （PTM） placed in the pathway. The PTM plays the role of external mirror, which controls the feedback strength and coupling strength. We numerically simulate this system by establishing a visible SIMULINK model. The results demonstrate that the anticipation synchronization is achieved and it can tolerate some extent frequency detuning. Moreover, the system shows similar chaos-pass filtering effect on unidireetionally coupled system even both VCSELs are modulated. This system allows simultaneously bidirectional secure message transmission on public channels.

A Diffusively Corrected Multiclass Lighthill-Whitham-Richards Traffic Model with Anticipation Lengths and Reaction Times

Multiclass Lighthill-Whitham-Richards trafficmodels[Benzoni-Gavage and Colombo,Euro.J.Appl.Math.,14(2003),pp.587–612;Wong and Wong,Transp.Res.A,36(2002),pp.827–841]give rise to first-order systems of conservation laws that are hyperbolic under usual conditions,so that their associated Cauchy problems are wellposed.Anticipation lengths and reaction times can be incorporated into these models by adding certain conservative second-order terms to these first-order conservation laws.These terms can be diffusive under certain circumstances,thus,in principle,ensuring the stability of the solutions.The purpose of this paper is to analyze the stability of these diffusively correctedmodels under varying reaction times and anticipation lengths.It is demonstrated that instabilities may develop for high reaction times and short anticipation lengths,and that these instabilities may have controlled frequencies and amplitudes due to their nonlinear nature.