Glacier area change (1993-2019) and its relationship to debris cover, proglacial lakes, and morphological parameters in the Chandra-Bhaga Basin, Western Himalaya, India

Glacier inventories serve as critical baseline data for understanding the impacts of climate change on glaciers.The present study maps the outlines of glaciers in the Chandra-Bhaga Basin(western Himalaya)for the years 1993,2000,2010,and 2019 using Landsat Thematic Mapper(TM),Enhanced Thematic Mapper(ETM),and Operational Land Imager(OLI)datasets.A total of 251 glaciers,each having an area above 0.5 km^(2),were identified,which include 216 clean-ice and 35 debris-covered glaciers.Area changes are estimated for three periods:1993-2000,2000-2010,and 2010-2019.The total glacierized area was 996±62 km^(2) in 1993,which decreased to 973±70 km^(2) in 2019.The mean rate of glacier area loss was higher in the recent decade(2010-2019),at 0.036 km^(2),compared to previous decades(0.029 km^(2) in 2000-2010 and 0.025 km^(2) in 1993-2000).Supraglacial debris cover changes are also mapped over the period of 1993 and 2019.It is found that the supraglacial debris cover increased by 14.12±2.54 km^(2)(15.2%)during 1993-2019.Extensive field surveys on Chhota Shigri,Panchi II,Patsio,Hamtah,Mulkila,and Yoche Lungpa glaciers were carried out to validate the glacier outlines and supraglacial debris cover estimated using satellite datasets.Controls of various morphological parameters on retreat were also analyzed.It is observed that small,clean ice,south oriented glaciers,and glaciers with proglacial lakes are losing area at faster rates than other glaciers in the basin.

Lake Area Changes and the main causes in the hinterland of Badain Jaran Desert during 1973–2010,China

Lake area information in the Badain Jaran Desert in 1973, 1990, 2000, and 2010 was obtained by visual interpretation and water index analysis of remote sensing images, based on the spatial and temporal characteristics of lake area changes during 37 years. Results indicated that the nttmber of lakes declined from 94 to 82 and the total surface area was reduced by 3.69 km2 during 1973-2010. The desert lake area reduced by different degrees in different periods, but this occurred most rapidly during 1973-1990. According to the statistics of lake area changes, lake area decreases mainly occurred in the lakes with areas less than 0.2 km2, while the areas of lakes greater than 0.9 km2 only fluctuated. The changes of lake areas were probably due to changes in the quantity of underground water supplies rather than the effects of local climate change or human factors.

FAST SIMULATION OF FLOWS IN SHOCK TUBE WITH AREA CHANGE

The shock tubes with area change are used in the free piston shock tunnels,owing to its higher driver effect.For optimized operation of this kind of shock tube,a computer program for fast simulation of transient hypersonic flow is presented.The numerical modeling embodied within this code is based on a quasi-one-dimensional Lagrangian description of the gas dynamics.In this code,a mass-loss model is also applied by using Mirels′theory of shock attenuation.The simulation of particular condition for T4 free piston shock tunnel is conducted and compared with experimental measurements and numerical simulation.The results provide good estimate for shock speed and pressure obtained after shock reflection.

Peatland area change in the southern Altay Mountains over the last twenty years based on GIS and RS analysis

Analyses results of total peatland area changes in the southern AItay Mountain region over the past 20 years are discussed in this paper. These analyses were based on remote sensing （RS） and geographical information system （GIS） studies. Possible control methods are evaluated by comparing these results to other regional records and climate data. The area of the peatland zones was calculated by overlaying a peatland layer of Landsat TM （Thematic Map） image constructed by using supervised classification with a layer of slope based on a digital elevation model （DEM）. The results show that slope layer is crucial to improving the accuracy of peatland extracted from TM images. The peatland area of the Altay Mountains increased from 931.5km^2 in 1990 to 977.7 km^2 in 2010. This trend is consistent with the climate change in this region, due in part to increasing temperatures and precipitation, suggesting possible climate controls on peatland expansion. The increase in the peatland area in the Altay Mountains over the last 20 years has been influenced by the westerlies. Alternatively, changes in the largest highland peatland area of the Zoige Basin, located in the eastern Tibetan Plateau have been influenced by the intensity of the Asian summer monsoons. In addition to increased temperatures, decreased precipitation in the Zoige Basin and increased precipitation in the Altay Mountains, due to varied patterns of atmospheric circulation, are the probable causes for driving the change differences in these two peatland areas.

Effects of Land Use Change on Eco-environment in Hilly Area of Central Sichuan Basin——A Case Study of Yanting County, Sichuan Province

With the artificial alder and cypress mixed forest being planted, there has been a marked land use change since 1970s' in Hilly Area of Central Sichuan Basin, China. Data from meteorological observations or posts operated over long time, measurement and calculation of NPP (net primary production) and biomass of biological community, and analysis of soil organic matter content show that the artificial alder and cypress mixed forest has outstanding eco-environmental effect: adjusting local climate, raising soil fertility, alleviating menace of drought, and raising NPP and biomass of biological community. It is very beneficial for improving ecological environment to afforest artificial alder and cypress mixed forest in populous Hilly Area of Central Sichuan Basin, China. Key Words: land use/land cover change (LUCC); eco-environmental effect; Hilly Area of Central Sichuan Basin; the artificial alder and cypress mixed forest

APPLICATIONS OF REMOTE SENSING IN ENVIRONMENTAL INVESTIGATION AND CHANGE ANALYSIS IN THE THREE GORGES AREA

1. INTRODUCTION The proposed Three Gorges Project, one of the biggest hydroelectric projects in the world, will dam the middle reaches of the Changjiang (Yangtze) River, the third longest river in the world, and form a large reservoir. Its impacts on environment have attracted wide attention. Entrusted by National Scientific-Technical Commission, the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) was in charge of a research project on this issuse from 1984 to 1989. Tho use of remote sensing played an important role in the project considering the study area is mountainous and not convenientlv located, which makes it difficult to conduct the research onlv using conventional means.

Spatiotemporal changes of typical glaciers and their responses to climate change in Xinjiang,Northwest China

Glaciers are highly sensitive to climate change and are undergoing significant changes in mid-latitudes.In this study,we analyzed the spatiotemporal changes of typical glaciers and their responses to climate change in the period of 1990-2015 in 4 different mountainous sub-regions in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of Northwest China:the Bogda Peak and Karlik Mountain sub-regions in the Tianshan Mountains;the Yinsugaiti Glacier sub-region in the Karakorum Mountains;and the Youyi Peak sub-region in the Altay Mountains.The standardized snow cover index(NDSI)and correlation analysis were used to reveal the glacier area changes in the 4 sub-regions from 1990 to 2015.Glacial areas in the Bogda Peak,Karlik Mountain,Yinsugaiti Glacier,and Youyi Peak sub-regions in the period of 1990-2015 decreased by 57.7,369.1,369.1,and 170.4 km^(2),respectively.Analysis of glacier area center of gravity showed that quadrant changes of glacier areas in the 4 sub-regions moved towards the origin.Glacier area on the south aspect of the Karlik Mountain sub-region was larger than that on the north aspect,while glacier areas on the north aspect of the other 3 sub-regions were larger than those on the south aspect.Increased precipitation in the Karlik Mountain sub-region inhibited the retreat of glaciers to a certain extent.However,glacier area changes in the Bogda Peak and Youyi Peak sub-regions were not sensitive to the increased precipitation.On a seasonal time scale,glacier area changes in the Bogda Peak,Karlik Mountain,Yinsugaiti Glacier,and Youyi Peak sub-regions were mainly caused by accumulated temperature in the wet season;on an annual time scale,the correlation coefficient between glacier area and annual average temperature was-0.72 and passed the significance test at P<0.05 level in the Karlik Mountain sub-region.The findings of this study can provide a scientific basis for water resources management in the arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China in the context of global warming.

Flooding and its relationship with land cover change, population growth, and road density

Bangladesh experiences frequent hydro-climatic disasters such as flooding.These disasters are believed to be associated with land use changes and climate variability.However,identifying the factors that lead to flooding is challenging.This study mapped flood susceptibility in the northeast region of Bangladesh using Bayesian regularization back propagation(BRBP)neural network,classification and regression trees(CART),a statistical model(STM)using the evidence belief function(EBF),and their ensemble models(EMs)for three time periods(2000,2014,and 2017).The accuracy of machine learning algorithms(MLAs),STM,and EMs were assessed by considering the area under the curve—receiver operating characteristic(AUC-ROC).Evaluation of the accuracy levels of the aforementioned algorithms revealed that EM4(BRBP-CART-EBF)outperformed(AUC>90%)standalone and other ensemble models for the three time periods analyzed.Furthermore,this study investigated the relationships among land cover change(LCC),population growth(PG),road density(RD),and relative change of flooding(RCF)areas for the period between 2000 and 2017.The results showed that areas with very high susceptibility to flooding increased by 19.72%between 2000 and 2017,while the PG rate increased by 51.68%over the same period.The Pearson correlation coefficient for RCF and RD was calculated to be 0.496.These findings highlight the significant association between floods and causative factors.The study findings could be valuable to policymakers and resource managers as they can lead to improvements in flood management and reduction in flood damage and risks.

Changes in soil organic carbon and nitrogen after 26 years of farmland management on the Loess Plateau of China

Soil carbon（C） and nitrogen（N） play a crucial role in determining the soil and environmental quality. In this study, we investigated the effects of 26 years（from 1984 to 2010） of farmland management on soil organic carbon（SOC） and soil N in abandoned, wheat（Triticum aestivum L.） non-fertilized, wheat fertilized（mineral fertilizer and organic manure） and alfalfa（Medicago Sativa L.） non-fertilized treatments in a semi-arid region of the Loess Plateau, China. Our results showed that SOC and soil total N contents in the 0–20 cm soil layer increased by 4.29（24.4%） and 1.39 Mg/hm2（100%）, respectively, after the conversion of farmland to alfalfa land. Compared to the wheat non-fertilized treatment, SOC and soil total N contents in the 0–20 cm soil layer increased by 4.64（26.4%） and 1.18 Mg/hm2（85.5%）, respectively, in the wheat fertilized treatment. In addition, we found that the extents of changes in SOC, soil total N and mineral N depended on soil depth were greater in the upper soil layer（0–30 cm） than in the deeper soil layer（30–100 cm） in the alfalfa land or fertilizer-applied wheat land. Fertilizer applied to winter wheat could increase the accumulation rates of SOC and soil total N. SOC concentration had a significant positive correlation with soil total N concentration. Therefore, this study suggested that farmland management, e.g. the conversion of farmland to alfalfa forage land and fertilizer application, could promote the sequestrations of C and N in soils in semi-arid regions.

Climatic change: Causal correlations over the last 240 Ma

The climate of the Earth has been oscillating between mega warm periods and mega cold periods for 3,000 Ma. Each mega cold period included alternating major warm and cold events. The present mega cold period commenced about 44 Ma in the polar re- gions as the seas cooled following the loss of the circum-equatorial ocean. Before then, a mega warm period lasted for more than 200 Ma. The frequency of the major cold events within the present mega cold period is increasing, with each continent being un- der the influence of a different set of climatic controls. There are many causes of these shifts in climate, ranging from fluctuating meridional ocean currents, rearrangement of tectonic plates, and changes in ocean gateways. These are enhanced by a combination of Milankovitch cycles and many other medium to small oscillations and cyclic controls that cause the daily, monthly, and season- al fluctuations in weather. Examples are given of how these can cause a change from cold to warm events, or vice versa, at pre- sent-day or mega scales, aided by eustatic changes in sea levels and changes in the distribution of air masses, sea ice, and snow.

Reconstruction of Lu-level cropland areas in the Northern Song Dynasty （AD976-1078）

Based on data on taxed-cropland area and on the number of households in historical documents, a probabilistic model of cropland distribution and a cropland area allocation model were designed and validated. Cropland areas for the years AD976, 997, 1066, and 1078 were estimated at the level of Lu（an administrative region of the Northern Song Dynasty）. The results indicated that（1） the cropland area of the whole study region for AD976, 997, 1066, and 1078 was about 468.27 million mu（a Chinese unit of area, with1 mu=666.7m2）, 495.53 million mu, 697.65 million mu, and 731.94 million mu, respectively. The fractional cropland area（FCA） increased from 10.7% to 16.8%, and the per capita cropland area decreased from 15.7 mu to 8.4 mu.（2） With regard to the cropland spatial pattern, the FCA of the southeast, north, and southwest regions of the Northern Song territory increased by 12.0%, 5.2%, and 1.2%, respectively. The FCA of some regions in the Yangtze River Plain increased to greater than 40%, and the FCA of the North China Plain increased to greater than 20%. However, the FCA of the southwest region（except for the Chengdu Plain） in the Northern Song territory was less than 6%.（3） There were 84.2% Lus whose absolute relative error was smaller than 20% in the mid Northern Song Dynasty. The validation results indicate that our models are reasonable and that the results of reconstruction are credible.

Monitoring variations of inland lakes in the arid region of Central Asia

Inland lakes are the major surface water resource in the arid regions of Central Asia. Therefore, the surface area changes in inland lakes have been a sensitive indicator of climate changes and human activ- ities, and have often been the focus of ecological and environmental research. This study aimed to monitor the changes in surface area of nine major lakes over a 32-year period. The water body was extracted from MSS images from the mid-1970s, TM images from the early 1990s, ETM ＋ images in the late 1990s, and TM images in 2007. The results indicated that the total surface area of these nine lakes had decreased over time to 50.38% of the area, from 91402.06km^2 in 1975 to 46049.23 km^2 in 2007. As the surface area of lakes in the western part of Central Asia was larger than that in the eastern part, the shrinking trend of lake area was more significant in the west than in the east. There was a varied reduction of closed lakes in flat regions. The most substantial decrease was in the surface area of closed lakes in flat regions. Most significantly, the area of the Aral Sea was reduced by 75.7% from its original area in 1975. The area of alpine lakes remained relatively stable; the change in surface area was less than 0.7% during the period 1975-2007. The area change in opened lakes with outlets was notably different from the other two types. The area of Zaysan had increased sharply by 5.85%, and that of Bosten had decreased by 9.1%. Sasykkol had hardly any changes in this period. Due to global climate wanning, vapor transfer to the south via westerly winds had been blocked, resulting in a decrease of much-needed precipitation in the western parts of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan between 1970 and 2000. The decrease in precipitation and the increase in water consumption for agricultural irrigation resulted in the decrease of fiver runoff. Consequently, thearea of inland lakes in Central Asia shrank over the past 32 years.

Can we predict earthquakes with GPS data?

Prediction of earthquakes using GPS remains an unsolved but important problem.Pre-signals in terms of changes in triangular networks of GPS Stations were examined for many large earthquakes in Japan and in other Asian regions.I discovered that the occurrence and location of an earthquake can be predicted with pre-signals found in GPS data analysis.However,more research is required to predict how many days after the pre-signals an earthquake will occur.

Assessment of multifunctional landscapes dynamics in the mountainous basin of the Mo River （Togo, West Africa）

In this study, historical landscape dynamics were investigated to（i） map the land use/cover types for the years 1972, 1987, 2000 and 2014;（ii） determine the types and processes of landscape dynamics; and（iii） assess the landscape fragmentation and habitat loss over time. Supervised classification of multi-temporal Landsat images was used through a pixel-based approach. Post–classification methods included systematic and random change detection, trajectories analysis and landscape fragmentation assessment. The overall accuracies（and Kappa statistics） were of 68.86%（0.63）, 91.32%（0.79）, 90.66%（0.88） and 91.88%（0.89） for 1972, 1987, 2000 and 2014, respectively. The spatio-temporal analyses indicated that forests, woodlands and savannahs dominated the landscapes during the four dates, though constant areal decreases were observed. The most important dynamic process was the decline of woodlands with an average annual net loss rate of –2%. Meanwhile, the most important land transformation occurred during the transition 2000–2014, due to anthropogenic pressures. Though the most important loss of vegetation greenness occurred in the unprotected areas, the overall analyses of change indicated a declining trend of land cover quality and an increasing landscape fragmentation. Sustainable conservation strategies should be promoted while focusing restoration attention on degraded lands and fragmented ecosystems in order to support rural livelihood and biodiversity conservation.