The PMIP3 Simulated Climate Changes over Arid Central Asia during the Mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum

In this study, the climate changes over Arid Central Asia(ACA) during the mid-Holocene(approximately 6,000 calendar years ago, MH) and the Last Glacial Maximum(approximately 21,000 calendar years ago, LGM) were investigated using multimodel simulations derived from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3(PMIP3). During the MH, the multimodel median(MMM) shows that in the core region of ACA, the regionally averaged annual surface air temperature(SAT) decreases by 0.13°C and annual precipitation decreases by 3.45%, compared with the preindustrial(PI) climate. The MMM of the SAT increases by 1.67/0.13°C in summer/autumn, whereas it decreases by 1.23/1.11°C in spring/winter. The amplitude of the seasonal cycles of the SAT increases over ACA due to different MH orbital parameters. For precipitation, the regionally averaged MMM decreases by 5.77%/5.69%/0.39%/5.24% in spring/summer/autumn/winter, respectively. Based on the analysis of the aridity index(AI), compared with the PI, a drier climate appears in southern Central Asia and western Xinjiang due to decreasing precipitation. During the LGM, the MMM shows that the regionally averaged SAT decreases by 5.04/4.36/4.70/5.12/5.88°C and precipitation decreases by 27.78%/28.16%/31.56%/27.74%/23.29% annually and in the spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. Robust drying occurs throughout almost the whole core area. Decreasing precipitation plays a dominant role in shaping the drier conditions, whereas strong cooling plays a secondary but opposite role. In response to the LGM external forcings, over Central Asia and Xinjiang, the seasonal cycle of precipitation has a smaller amplitude compared with that under the PI climate. In the model-data comparison, the simulated MH moisture changes over ACA are to some extent consistent with the reconstructions, further confirming that drier conditions occurred during that period than during the PI.

Holocene precipitationδ^18O as an indicator of temperature history in arid central Asia:an overview of recent advances

Holoceneδ^18O records from various archives(ice cores,cave stalagmites,and peat sediments)from the Xinjiang region of northwestern China,in arid central Asia(ACA),are all derived ultimately from local precipitationδ^18O(δ^18Op).Nevertheless,they have been proposed as indicators of different climatic parameters,such as wetness and temperature changes.This article summarizes previously reported records of moisture sources for the Xinjiang region and the results of modern observations conducted at an ice core site and a peat site in the Altai Mountains.The findings are used to propose that the overall positive trends in Holoceneδ^18O records from the various archives from the Xinjiang region primarily reflect the Holocene's long-term warming trend.It is concluded that more site-specific modern observations are needed to further elucidate the environmental significance of Holoceneδ^18O records from this region,especially for the separation of different seasonal temperature signals present withinδ^18O records.

Late Holocene Moisture Changes in the Core Area of Arid Central Asia Reflected by Rock Magnetic Records of Glacier Lake Kalakuli Sediments in the Westernmost Tibetan Plateau and their Influences on the Evolution of Ancient Silk Road

The evolution of Ancient Silk Road(ASR) was deeply influenced by late Holocene moisture changes in Arid Central Asia(ACA). Nevertheless, controversies in Holocene moisture change pattern of ACA and poorly–constrained age models of related studies have made the discussion about late Holocene moisture changes in ACA and their influences on the evolution of ASR difficult. Recently, a high–resolution age model during the late Holocene was established for Kalakuli Lake, a small glacier lake located in the core area of ACA. A thorough rock magnetic investigation was carried out on Kalakuli Lake sediments based on this age model. The magnetic mineral assemblage of Kalakuli Lake sediments is still dominated by primary magnetite despite minor diagenetic effects. Comparisons of rock magnetic records to parameters previously used as indicator of glacier fluctuations suggest that clastic input to Kalakuli Lake was high(low) and magnetic grain size is relatively larger(smaller), when glaciers on Muztagh Ata advanced(retreated). The ARM/SIRM ratio, a magnetic grain size proxy, is directly related to lake hydrodynamics, which are ultimately controlled by glacier fluctuations on Muztagh Ata as the result of regional moisture changes. Late Holocene moisture changes indicated by the ARM/SIRM ratio are consistent with cool/wet and warm/dry oscillations indicated by the unweighted average of biomarker hydrogen isotopic data of the C26 and C28 n–alkanoic acids in a previous study about Kalakuli Lake, most moisture change records of the core area of ACA and winter insolation of the Northern Hemisphere, but opposite to Asian monsoon evolution. Given Asian monsoon and the westerlies are mutually inhibited, we propose that late Holocene moisture changes in the core area of ACA were controlled by the intensity of Asian monsoon versus the westerlies under the governance of solar insolation. Generally increased moisture since the late Holocene indicated by the ARM/SIRM ratio favored cultural exchange and integration between the western and the eastern Eurasia, which paved the way for the formation of ASR. Coincidence between significant increase in moisture at ~200 BC suggested by the ARM/SIRM ratio and the formation of ASR indicates moisture as an important factor that facilitated the formation of ASR. The onsets of three prosperity periods of ASR in the history generally correspond to periods when moisture was relatively high, nevertheless, stagnant periods of ASR do not coincide with periods when moisture was relatively low in the core area of ACA. Disorganized correlations between stagnant periods of ASR and moisture changes in the core area of ACA suggest that moisture is not the decisive factor influencing the evolution of ASR.

Spatio-temporal pattern and changes of evapotranspiration in arid Central Asia and Xinjiang of China

Accurate inversion of land surface evapotranspiration （ET） in arid areas is of great significance for understanding global eco-hydrological process and exploring the spatio-temporal variation and ecological response of water resources. It is also important in the functional evaluation of regional water cycle and water balance, as well as the rational allocation and management of water resources. This study, based on model validation analysis at varied scales in fiwe Central Asian countries and China＇s Xinjiang, developed an appropriate approach for ET inversion in arid lands. The actual ET during growing seasons of the study area was defined, and the changes in water participating in evaporation in regional water cycle were then educed. The results show the simulation error of SEBS （Surface Energy Balance System） model under cloud amount consideration was 1.34% at 30-m spatial scale, 2.75% at 1-km spatial scale and 6,37% at 4-kin spatial scale. ET inversion for 1980-2007 applying SEBS model in the study area indicates： （1） the evaporation depth （May-September） by land types descends in the order of waters （660.24 ram） 〉 cultivated land （464.66 mm） 〉 woodland （388.44 mm） 〉 urbanized land （168.16 mm） 〉 grassland （160.48 mm） 〉 unused land （83.08 mm）; and （2） ET during the 2005 growing season in Xinjiang and Central Asia was 2,168.68x108 m3 （with an evaporation/precipitation ratio of 1.05） and 9,741.03x108 m3 （with an evaporation/precipitation ratio of 1.4）, respectively. The results unveiled the spatio-temporal variation rules of ET process in arid areas, providing a reference for further research on the water cycle and water balance in similar arid regions.

Spatiotemporal precipitation variations in the arid Central Asia in the context of global warming

This study analyzed the temporal precipitation variations in the arid Central Asia （ACA） and their regional differences during 1930-2009 using monthly gridded precipitation from the Climatic Research Unit （CRU）. Our results showed that the annual precipitation in this westerly circulation dominated arid region is generally increasing during the past 80 years, with an apparent increasing trend （0.7 mm/10 a） in winter. The precipitation variations in ACA also differ regionally, which can be divided into five distinct subregions （Ⅰ West Kazakhstan region, Ⅱ East Kazakhstan region, ⅢCentral Asia Plains region, Ⅳ Kyrgyzstan region, and V Iran Plateau region）. The annual precipitation falls fairly even on all seasons in the two northern subregions （regions Ⅰ and Ⅱ, approximately north of 45°N）, whereas the annual precipitation is falling mainly on winter and spring （accounting for up to 80% of the annual total precipitation） in the three southern subregions. The annual precipitation is increasing on all subregions except the southwestern ACA （subregion Ⅴ） during the past 80 years. A significant increase in precipitation appeared in subregions Ⅰ and Ⅲ. The long-term trends in annual precipitation in all subregions are determined mainly by trends in winter precipitation. Additionally, the precipitation in ACA has significant interannual variations. The 2-3-year cycle is identified in all subregions, while the 5-6-year cycle is also found in the three southern subregions. Besides the inter-annual variations, there were 3-4 episodic precipitation variations in all subregions, with the latest episodic change that started in the mid- to late 1970s. The precipitations in most of the study regions are fast increasing since the late 1970s. Overall, the responses of ACA precipitation to global warming are complicated. The variations of westerly circulation are likely the major factors that influence the precipitation variations in the study region.

High-elevation landforms are experiencing more remarkable wetting trends in arid Central Asia

Since the 1980s,a warming and weting trend in arid Central Asia(ACA)has been widely reported.However,no consistent knowledge has been presented about whether warming and weting trends are evenly distributed throughout ACA or whether there are noticeable topographical differences.We combined the ERA5-Land reanalysis dataset and data from Google Earth Engine to analyze the topographic differences of ACA from 1981 to 2020.The findings indicate that significant(p<0.05)warming has a broader geographic scale in ACA and that warming rate of low-elevation landforms(high plains and hlls)is higher than that of high-elevation landforms(mountains and tablelands).However,the weting trend does not fllow this patern.By contrast,high-elevation landforms have a higher wetting rate than low-elevation landforms and are the main areas of wetting.Additionaly,low-elevation landforms continue to maintain the warming and drying trends.Notably,the wetting trend of high-elevation landforms is amplified with altitude.Meanwhile,the wetting trend is negatively related to the warming trend(p<0.01)across the entire elevation range.Collectively,the findings provide new insights into the current research hotspot of warming-wetting"trend in ACA and highlight the differences in the responses of different landforms to climate change.

Increased water vapor supply in winter and spring leading to the arid Central Asian wetting in last 6000 years

Paleoclimate reconstructions show that the arid Central Asia(ACA)is characterized by a wetting trend from the midHolocene(MH)to the Preindustrial period(PI),which has been acknowledged to be a result of increased mean precipitation.However,a systemic understanding of its governing dynamics remains elusive.Based on model outputs from 13 climate models from the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project phase 4(PMIP4)and proxy records from ACA,here we show that increase in mean precipitation in ACA can be attributed to changes in water vapor source and its transport intensity in winter(December,January,and February)and spring(March,April,and May).In particular,the increase in water vapor supply in winter is associated with the southerly wind anomaly over the northwestern Indian Ocean and Central Asia,caused by an overall weakening of the Asian winter monsoon.This is conducive to water vapor transport from the upwind regions(e.g.,Mediterranean)to ACA.Meanwhile,water vapor supply from the eastern Iceland is also enhanced due to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation-like(NAO-like)atmospheric circulation pattern caused by sea ice expansion in the North Atlantic.In spring,evaporation over land and inland lakes is enhanced by increased insolation in the Northern Hemisphere,which increases atmospheric humidity that fuels midlatitude westerlies to enhance ACA precipitation.In addition,weakened atmospheric subsidence over ACA in winter and spring also contributes to the increased precipitation.Overall,our results indicate that paleoclimate modeling is of great importance for disentangling governing dynamics accounting for reconstructed climate phenomena that might be a synergic consequence of several processes operating in different seasons.

Humid Little Ice Age in arid central Asia documented by Bosten Lake, Xinjiang, China

Short sediment cores retrieved from Bosten Lake, the largest inland freshwater lake in China, were used to explore humidity and precipitation variations in arid central Asia during the past millennium. The chronology of the cores was established using 137Cs, 210Pb and AMS 14C dating re- sults. Multi-proxy high-resolution analysis, including pollen ratios of Artemisia and Chenopodiaceae (A/C), carbonate content and grain size, indicates that the climate during the past millennium can be divided into three stages: a dry climate between 1000―1500 AD, a humid climate during the Little Ice Age (LIA) (c. 1500―1900 AD), and a warm dry period after 1900 AD. On centennial timescales, the climate change in northwestern China during the past 1000 years is characterized by oscillations between warm-dry and cold-humid climate conditions. All the proxies changed significantly and indi- cate increased precipitation during the LIA, including increased pollen A/C ratios and pollen concen- trations, decreased carbonate content and increased grain size. The humid period during the LIA re- corded by the Bosten Lake sediments is representative of arid central Asia and is supported by nu- merous records from other sites. During the LIA, the water runoff into the Keriya River and Tarim River in the Tarim Basin increased, while the ice accumulation in the Guliya ice core increased. Additionally, the lake levels of the Aral and Caspian Sea also rose, while tree-ring analysis indicates that precipita- tion increased. We hypothesize that both the lower temperature within China and the negative anomalies of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during this period may have contributed to the humid climate within this area during LIA.

Precipitation trends and variability from 1950 to 2000 in arid lands of Central Asia

Climate warming will cause differences in precipitation distribution and changes in hydrological cycle both at regional and global scales. Arid lands of Central Asia （ALCA）, one of the largest arid regions at the middle latitudes in the world, is likely to be strongly influenced by climate warming. Understanding the precipitation varia- tions in the past is an important prerequisite for predicting future precipitation trends and thus managing regional water resources in such an arid region. In this study, we used run theory, displacement, extreme deviation theory, precipitation concentration index （PCI）, Mann-Kendall rank correlation and climatic trend coefficient methods to analyze the precipitation in wet and dry years, changes in precipitation over multiple-time scales, variability of precipitation and its rate of change based on the monthly precipitation data during 1950-2000 from 344 meteorological stations in the ALCA. The occurrence probability of a single year with abundant precipitation was higher than that of a single year with less precipitation. The average duration of extreme drought in the entire area was 5 years, with an average annual water deficit of 34.6 mm （accounting for 11.2% of the average annual precipitation over the duration）. The occurrence probability of a single wet year was slightly higher than that of a single dry year. The occurrence probability of more than 5 consecutive wet years was 5.8%, while the occurrence probability of more than 5 consecutive dry years was 6.2%. In the center of the study area, the distribution of precipitation was stable at an intra-annual timescale, with small changes at an inter-annual timescale. In the western part of the study area, the monthly variation of precipitation was high at an inter-annual timescale. There were clear seasonal changes in precipitation （PC1=12-36） in the ALCA. Precipitation in spring and winter accounted for 37.7% and 24.4% of the annual precipitation, respectively There was a significant inter-annual change in precipitation in the arid Northwest China （PC1=24-34）. Annual precipitation increased significantly （P=0.05） in 17.4% of all the meteorological stations over the study period. The probability of an increase in annual precipitation was 75.6%, with this increase being significant （P=-0.05） at 34.0% of all the meteorological stations. The average increasing rate in annual precipitation was 3.9 mm/10a （P=0.01） in the ALCA. There were significant increasing trends （P=0.01） in precipitation in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, with rates of 2.6, 3.1 and 3.7 mm/10a, respectively.

Climate change, water resources and sustainable development in the arid and semi-arid lands of Central Asia in the past 30 years

The countries of Central Asia are collectively known as the five "-stans": Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan. In recent times, the Central Asian region has been affected by the shrinkage of the Aral Sea, widespread desertification, soil salinization, biodiversity loss, frequent sand storms, and many other ecological disasters. This paper is a review article based upon the collection, identification and collation of previous studies of environmental changes and regional developments in Central Asia in the past 30 years. Most recent studies have reached a consensus that the temperature rise in Central Asia is occurring faster than the global average. This warming trend will not only result in a higher evaporation in the basin oases, but also to a significant retreat of glaciers in the mountainous areas. Water is the key to sustainable development in the arid and semi-arid regions in Central Asia. The uneven distribution, over consumption, and pollution of water resources in Central Asia have caused severe water supply problems, which have been affecting regional harmony and development for the past 30 years. The widespread and significant land use changes in the 1990 s could be used to improve our understanding of natural variability and human interaction in the region. There has been a positive trend of trans-border cooperation among the Central Asian countries in recent years. International attention has grown and research projects have been initiated to provide water and ecosystem protection in Central Asia. However, the agreements that have been reached might not be able to deliver practical action in time to prevent severe ecological disasters. Water management should be based on hydrographic borders and ministries should be able to make timely decisions without political intervention. Fully integrated management of water resources, land use and industrial development is essential in Central Asia. The ecological crisis should provide sufficient motivation to reach a consensus on unified water management throughout the region.

Amphibian and reptilian distribution patterns in the transitional zone between the Euro-Siberian and Central Asia Subrealms

There exist some controversies over the larger zoogeographic divisions of the arid areas of Central Asia, whose characteristics include complex ecological environments, complex fauna origins and unique patterns of animal distribution. The aim of this study was to determine, using quantitative analysis, the distribution patterns of amphibians and reptiles in the arid areas of Central Asia, whose various physiographical regions were divided into 17 Operative Geographical Units （OGUs）. Based on the presence or absence of 52 amphibian and reptile genera in the 17 OGUs, and by making use of the Czekanowski Similarity Index, the Baroni-Urbani and Buser＇s Similarity Index, and the strong and weak boundary test, we studied the biotic boundaries within these contested regions. In accordance with our results, the classification dendrogram was divided into two main branches. One branch is composed of the northern OGUs of the Altai Mountains which are a part of the Euro-Siberian Subrealm. The other branch includes all of the OGUs south of the Altai Mountains, which belong to the Central Asia Subrealm. There is a significantly weak biotic boundary （DW〉0, GW〉GS, P〈0.01） between the Euro-Siberian Subrealm and the Central Asia Subrealm that corre- sponded to the transitional zones. The boundary between the two subrealms runs along the Altai Mountains, the Sayan Mountains, the Hangai Mountains and the Mongolian Dagurr Mountains. The boundaries between the main branches in the Central Asia Subrealm are weak, reflecting the widespread existence of transitional zones in the arid areas of Central Asia. The Tianshan Mountains should be elevated to form its own separate region, ＂the Middle Asian Mountain Region＂, which, due to its special fauna and environment, would be classified at the same level as the Mongolia-Xinjiang Region. With the approach of creating a cluster analysis dendogram based upon the genera of amphibians and reptiles, the relationship of these higher level zoogeographical divisions was successfully resolved and the error of long-branch attraction was also avoided. With our clustering dendrogram as the foundation, the in- dependence test was applied to strong and weak boundaries, and this resolved the problem of where to attribute the transition areas and revealed as well the barrier effect that physical, geographic boundaries have upon amphibians and reptiles. The approach of combining genera clustering analysis with a statistical boundary test should be applicable not only to the distribution patterns of other animal groups, but also to delineating large-scale zoogeographical divisions.

Water Productivity of Poplar and Paulownia on Two Sites in Kyrgyzstan, Central Asia

As Central Asia is a region with wide spread water scarcity as a result of excessive irrigation of agriculture, land use changes deserve research about potential impacts on the already strained water resources. Poplars have a long tradition as agroforestry tree across Central Asia, while paulownia is new to the region, but has been gaining extreme attention as a potential plantation and/or agroforestry tree. Therefore, the water productivity of those two tree species is investigated here on 3-year-old trees, in order to provide insights in how far the newly introduced Paulownia could put additional strain on water resources compared to paulownia. Poplar (P. deltoides × nigra) increased the stem biomass by 5.4 kg at an average water consumption of 4.18 l/d (water productivity 6.79 g/l). Paulownia’s (Paulownia tomentosa × fortunei) stem biomass grew by 4.81 kg at 2.36 l/d in average (water productivity 11.9 g/l). Expanding paulownia would not exert more pressure on Central Asia’s water resources than an expansion of poplar.

2005-2020年亚洲中部干旱区生态站月潜在蒸散量数据集

潜在蒸散表征大气蒸发能力,是衡量区域蒸发能力的重要指标,也是评价气候干旱程度变化、水资源供需平衡、植被耗水量等的关键参数。在收集中亚生态系统监测网络12个生态站和中国生态系统研究网络(CERN)11个位于西北干旱区生态站的气象观测数据基础上,经过数据质量控制与插补,采用Penman-Monteith模型计算潜在蒸散量,生成了2005-2020年亚洲中部干旱区生态站月潜在蒸散量数据集。本数据集时间序列较长、覆盖多种生态系统类型,可作为亚洲中部干旱问题研究的基础数据、模型输入数据、模拟结果验证数据等,也可为该区域水资源的合理开发与利用、生态环境保护等方面研究提供数据支撑。

Vegetation patterns and nature reserve construction in an extremely-arid desert in Anxi, NW China's Gansu Province

Anxi County is located in the northwestern part of the Hexi Corridor in Gansu Province and has the sole national level nature reserve of extremely arid desert in China. Phytosociological methods (Braun Blanquet, 1964) are used to classify plant community types in this area. Eleven are distinguished, including six of deserts, four of oases and one transitional type between deserts and oases. Direct gradient analysis(DCA) is employed to correlate the distribution of plant communities to physiogeographic conditions. This study makes clear that water is the most important ecological factor for the distribution of plant species and communities in this area. The effects of water have been demonstrated in different ways. A vegetation gradient from lower altitude to higher altitude in the southern part of the reserve is driven by a precipitation gradient. The effects of the depth of ground water table contribute to the differentiation of vegetation from desert to oasis in the flat area. In a finer scale, the washed gullies have obviously higher species richness and also higher vegetation cover than the surround gobi surfaces, possibly caused by the effects of floods. The vegetation patterns demonstrate that the area of Anxi County is a complete landscape unit. The range of the current nature reserve is not large enough for the purpose of conserving the unique biodiversity in this area.

末次间冰期亚洲中部干旱区干湿变化的模拟研究

利用国际古气候模拟对比计划第四阶段的多模式结果,分析了末次间冰期亚洲中部干旱区的干湿变化及机制。多模式集合平均结果表明,末次间冰期亚洲中部干旱区年降水减少0.7%,其中中亚地区的年降水减少2.8%,新疆地区年降水增加1.8%。水汽收支方程表明,末次间冰期中亚地区在雨季(冬春季)的降水变化主要与垂直动力项有关,新疆地区在雨季(夏季)的降水变化主要与垂直动力与热力项有关。此外,基于Penman-Montieth方法计算的亚洲中部干旱区的干旱指数在末次间冰期减小约10.2%,表明末次间冰期亚洲中部干旱区气候明显变干且存在旱区扩张的现象,这主要受到潜在蒸散变化的调控。潜在蒸散的增加进一步受到有效能量增加与地面风速增大的调控。本研究从模拟的角度揭示了末次间冰期亚洲中部干旱区干湿变化的可能特征及机制,在一定程度上有助于理解旱区气候在增暖情景下对轨道参数的响应特征。

基于Priestley-Taylor方法的中亚干旱区实际蒸散特征及归因

蒸散是水—能—碳循环之间的纽带,了解蒸散的动态过程及其驱动因素对中亚干旱区水资源稳定、生态环境安全及农业水资源管理等方面具有重要意义。本研究基于Priestley-Taylor方法,估算并分析了2000—2019年中亚干旱区蒸散的时空变化,采用Lindeman-Merenda-Gold方法定量评估了不同驱动因素对蒸散各组分的绝对贡献,并以各组分对蒸散变化的贡献加权,评估了各驱动因素对蒸散的贡献。结果表明:中亚干旱区蒸散整体以1.45mm·a^(-1)的速度波动上升,其变化趋势呈“东升西降”的空间分布;植被蒸腾、蒸发、冠层截留蒸发的变化趋势分别是2.46 mm·a^(-1)、-1.03 mm·a^(-1)、0.02 mm·a^(-1),三者对蒸散变化的贡献分别是70.09%、29.34%、0.57%;植被蒸腾和冠层截留蒸发的主导因素是NDVI,蒸发的主导因素是气温;总体上,NDVI是中亚干旱区蒸散变化的主导因素,其绝对贡献为28.16%。

新疆南疆极端干旱区典型暴雨的水汽特征及触发机制分析

为加强对南疆暴雨过程的水汽特征和触发机理的认识,利用FNL和ERA5再分析资料、地面自动气象站观测资料、 FY-2G静止卫星的黑体亮温(TBB)资料,对2019年6月24-28日南疆极端干旱区暴雨过程进行了分析。结果表明,此次南疆地区持续性强降水天气发生在"两槽两脊"的纬向环流形势下,巴湖低涡、伊朗高压脊和辐合线是导致此次强降水过程的主要天气系统。暴雨的水汽主要来自于大西洋、黑海、里/咸海、阿拉伯海和孟加拉湾沿着西北路径、偏西路径和西南路径到达南疆盆地。低空急流引导着偏西北和偏西路径的水汽输送到南疆盆地,西南路径的水汽则在南疆西部500 hPa气旋性风场、 200 hPa高空西南急流的引导下翻越青藏高原输送到南疆地区。水汽收支计算表明:水汽的输入主要集中在南边界对流层高层和北边界对流层低层和高层;水汽的输出集中在东边界对流层低层和高层。南疆盆地南侧高大陡峭地形(昆仑山脉)的阻挡,使得从北部侵入的主导气流在山前辐合生成的中尺度辐合线,是此次强降水的主要触发系统。辐合线以北的偏西北气流带来的水汽在山前堆积,在地形抬升作用下不断辐合并抬升,不稳定能量释放,对流系统在山前不断生成发展,造成和田等地区持续的强降水天气。

中亚5国生态承载力时空动态监测与驱动因素分析

中亚干旱半干旱地区生态环境极其脆弱,研究中亚5国生态承载力,对实现区域可持续发展,保障“丝绸之路经济带”生态安全具有重要意义。针对中亚5国生态环境特征,从自然资源补给、生态环境状态和人类活动3个方面建立评价指标体系,构建像元尺度的生态承载力指数,分析中亚5国2001—2019年生态承载力时空动态特征及驱动因素。结果表明,中亚生态承载力由西南向北部和东部递增;71.56%的地区生态承载力处于相对稳定状态,23.93%的地区呈提升趋势,4.51%的地区呈下降趋势,其中湿地生态系统下降较为明显;生态承载力在2003、2006、2010和2016年发生4次突变,干旱是引起生态承载力突变和波动的主要原因,尤其对中亚北部雨养农田和草地生态系统影响较大;人类活动对中亚生态承载力变化的影响较大,其影响集中在咸海、哈萨克丘陵、图尔盖洼地及耕作区和绿洲区。

亚洲中部干旱区全新世气候变化的西风模式——以新疆博斯腾湖记录为例

位于受西风环流显著影响区的我国最大内陆淡水湖——新疆博斯腾湖提供了全新世亚洲中部干旱区气候变化的可靠记录。对该湖钻探岩芯、沉积年代以及孢粉、碳酸盐含量、粒度等代用指标分析结果表明，末次冰消期到全新世早期湖泊干涸，风砂沉积盛行，气候干旱；约8cal．kaB．P．以来现代湖泊形成，气候相对湿润，其中，约6．0—1．5cal．kaB．P．期间代用指标A／C值指示的流域湿度增加，盘星藻指示的湖泊深度最大，全新世最湿润时段发生在中晚全新世。博斯腾湖记录的早全新世干旱和中晚全新世湿润的气候框架得到中亚其他较高分辨率湖泊记录的支持，具有普遍性。亚洲中部西风影响区这一全新世气候变化框架与亚洲季风区早中全新世夏季风强盛、中晚全新世季风衰落的变化模式显著不同，具有近似反相位（outofphase）变化特征。广大中亚内陆干旱区中晚全新世湿润气候不大可能是东亚季风深入内陆造成的，更可能是通过西风环流与高纬度北大西洋相联系，其驱动机制需要更深入研究。

亚洲中部干旱区在20世纪两次暖期的表现

利用亚洲中部干旱区1901-2002年近100 a气温及北半球海平面气压、冬季西伯利亚高压强度指数、西风指数资料,分析了20世纪全球变暖的两个较明显时期在该干旱区的响应特征,以及大气环流变化和太阳活动对干旱区气温异常的影响.结果表明:亚洲中部干旱区对20世纪全球发生的两次暖期的响应特征是有显著差异的.对1920-1940年代全球发生的第一次暖期,亚洲中部干旱区整体并没有响应,仅在其东部的季风影响边缘区有响应;而对1970年代以后发生的第二次暖期,亚洲中部干旱区整体都作出了响应.冰岛低压的异常加深、同时北大西洋亚速尔高压的显著增强,西伯利亚高压强度指数的异常减弱,以及西风指数的异常增强是导致亚洲中部干旱区气温偏高的可能原因,可以初步解释研究区整体对20世纪全球两次暖期响应不同的原因.太阳活动作为外部影响因子之一,对干旱区气温的影响是阶段性的,且在百年时间尺度上,二者并没有显著的相关性.