Quantifying major sources of uncertainty in projecting the impact of climate change on wheat grain yield in dryland environments

Modelling the impact of climate change on cropping systems is crucial to support policy-making for farmers and stakeholders.Nevertheless,there exists inherent uncertainty in such cases.General Circulation Models(GCMs)and future climate change scenarios(different Representative Concentration Pathways(RCPs)in different future time periods)are among the major sources of uncertainty in projecting the impact of climate change on crop grain yield.This study quantified the different sources of uncertainty associated with future climate change impact on wheat grain yield in dryland environments(Shiraz,Hamedan,Sanandaj,Kermanshah and Khorramabad)in eastern and southern Iran.These five representative locations can be categorized into three climate classes:arid cold(Shiraz),semi-arid cold(Hamedan and Sanandaj)and semi-arid cool(Kermanshah and Khorramabad).Accordingly,the downscaled daily outputs of 29 GCMs under two RCPs(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)in the near future(2030s),middle future(2050s)and far future(2080s)were used as inputs for the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator(APSIM)-wheat model.Analysis of variance(ANOVA)was employed to quantify the sources of uncertainty in projecting the impact of climate change on wheat grain yield.Years from 1980 to 2009 were regarded as the baseline period.The projection results indicated that wheat grain yield was expected to increase by 12.30%,17.10%,and 17.70%in the near future(2030s),middle future(2050s)and far future(2080s),respectively.The increases differed under different RCPs in different future time periods,ranging from 11.70%(under RCP4.5 in the 2030s)to 20.20%(under RCP8.5 in the 2080s)by averaging all GCMs and locations,implying that future wheat grain yield depended largely upon the rising CO2 concentrations.ANOVA results revealed that more than 97.22% of the variance in future wheat grain yield was explained by locations,followed by scenarios,GCMs,and their interactions.Specifically,at the semi-arid climate locations(Hamedan,Sanandaj,Kermanshah and Khorramabad),most of the variations arose from the scenarios(77.25%),while at the arid climate location(Shiraz),GCMs(54.00%)accounted for the greatest variation.Overall,the ensemble use of a wide range of GCMs should be given priority to narrow the uncertainty when projecting wheat grain yield under changing climate conditions,particularly in dryland environments characterized by large fluctuations in rainfall and temperature.Moreover,the current research suggested some GCMs(e.g.,the IPSL-CM5B-LR,CCSM4,and BNU-ESM)that made moderate effects in projecting the impact of climate change on wheat grain yield to be used to project future climate conditions in similar environments worldwide.

Influence of Climate and Tectonics on the Crystallization of Carnallite and Related Salts in the Congolese Atlantic Basin during the Lower Cretaceous, Republic of Congo

Lithological, petrographic, and morphoscopic studies were conducted on cuttings and cores from three boreholes drilled in the Loemé salt, Kanga site, Republic of the Congo, to determine 1) the preferential conditions for crystallization of carnallite and associated salts and 2) to reconstruct paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic conditions at the time of sedimentation. Sequential analysis of logs, sedimentary structures, carnallitite facies and associated salts concluded to the existence of a potassic carnallitite lagoon basin with low water cover, on a very wide and extensive plateau, affected by coastal waves and swells resulting from successive collapses. This basin evolved in two phases: confined and then open. The regular stratifications of halite, the rhythmicity of the halite-carnallitite elementary sequences are characteristic of salts that precipitated in relatively stable brines. These salts are therefore tectonosedimentary. The brecciated facies of the carnallitites sometimes associated with tachyhydrite result from the evolution of these deposits into salt crusts reworked by the surges into subaquatic allochemical gravelly cords under water. These crusts mark stages of partial and complete drying of the basin in a very hot and arid climate. Prolonged exposure of halite brines as well as their homogenization by surges accelerated evaporation and their abrupt evolution into carnallite brines obstructing the fossilization of sylvite. The precipitation of tachyhydrite marks the final stage of the successive complete drying of the basin.

Geochemical evidences of dry climate in the Mid-Holocene in Gonghe Basin, northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Previous research on climatic change in the Mid-Holocene in China indicates that it was a warm and humid period, accompanied by stronger summer monsoons, and it is defined as the Megatherrnal in the Holocene, or the Holocene Optimum period. However, this conclusion is mainly dh＇eeted at the monsoonal region in eastem China. In this research, we chose the Gonghe Basin in the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau as the study area. Geochemical analysis of the profiles of paleosols and aeolian sand in the Santala area in the middle of the Gonghe Basin, along with OSL （optically stimulated luminescence） dating, indicates that the regional climate has experienced several warm-humid and cold-dry cycles since 11.8 ka. In particular, the Mid-Holocene （8.14.6 ka） was relatively cold and dry as evidenced by drastic fluctuations in chemical weathering degree and humidity, a higher aridity index, and sparse vegetation, accompanying increased winter monsoonal strength. In order to clarify whether this is an individual or local signal, we compared our geochemical analysis results with lake and peat records and aeolian de- posits of the monsoonal boundary region. The results indicate that the climate deteriorated widely, with declines in temperature and moisture, in the Mid-Holocene in the modem monsoonal boundary zone. Furthermore, the duration of climate deteriora- tion （relatively dry period） generally decreased from west to east in the aforementioned regions. Therefore, this dry phase in Gonghe Basin may be representative of dry events in Mid-Holocene in northem China. In addition, we discuss the reasons for this dry climate from several perspectives： （1） it probably can be attributed to a decline in summer monsoonal strength; （2） the regional evaporation loss （forced by high temperature） was not compensated by regional precipitation; （3） the thermal dynamic effect of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.

Supergene Geochemistry of Gold and Oxidation Zone of the Sain Us Gold Deposit in the Inner Mongolian Arid Region

The Sain Us gold deposit is a typical auriferous sulphide quartz vein deposit in the InnerMongolian arid steppe climatic region. The oxidation zone has been controlled by the arid cli-mate since the beginning of the Holocene. Gold supergene evolution is characterized by enlarge-ment of gold grains, complication of the gold form, raising of the gold grade and increase of thegold fineness; besides, gold and silver have two enrichment peaks at the same depth, which is insharp contrast to the unimodal enrichment of gold and silver and the occurrence of gold aboveand silver below in a humid climatic region. Sun pumping is the main cause for the bimodalenrichment of gold and silver. Illite 2 M_1 is one of the main causes for the upper enrichment peakof gold and silver.

Change in Precipitation and Temperature Amounts over Three Decades in Central Anatolia,Turkey

The study presents the change in precipitation and temperature of the Central Anatolia region which a semi-arid climate prevails. The climatic data consists of the monthly rainfall totals and temperatures from 33 stations in region for the period of 1975-2007. The spatial distribution, the inter-seasonal and the inter-annual amounts of rainfall were studied, along with the vulnerability of Central Anatolia to desertification processes and the place of this semiarid region. Annual temperature frequency has been calculated and shows significant increase in temperature of approximately 2.6% corresponding to 0.4?C. The change in climate was determined according to Erin?’s aridity index. Semi-arid and semi-humid climate types prevailed in ürgüp, Kirikkale, Develi, Kir?ehir and Ak?ehir between 1975 and 1990. However, arid and semi-arid conditions prevailed in these stations after 1990. The decrease of the mean rainfall intensity (MRI) has varied between 0.3% and 21% annually since 1990. Decreases in seasonal rainfall intensity (SRI) and annual rainfall totals are found generally in the south, east and southeast of the region. Increases in SRI and annual rainfall totals are observed in the north and northwest of the region however, these increasing percentages are not as great as the decreasing percentages. Rainfall series have been analyzed for long-term trend according Mann-Kendall test. Results of this test indicate that a decreasing trend of winter and spring rainfall intensity is evident, whereas a generally increasing trend is observed for summer and autumn rainfall intensity. These changes began in the late 1970s and early 1980s across most of Central Anatolia.

Desert-steppe migration on the Loess Plateau at about 450 kaBP

According to the field investigation, observation by an electronic microscope and x-ray identification and chemical analysis, desert-steppe migration in the Loess Plateau at about 450 kaBP was studied. The data show that gypsum illuvial horizon indicating the desert-steppe environment developed in the early stage of the formation of the fifth layer loess in Shaoling tableland in Chang'an and Bailu tableland in Xi'an of Shaanxi are situated in the southern Loess Plateau. This indicates that remarkable drying occurred, a large-scope migration of desert steppe took place toward south and the climate zone migrated 5 degrees in latitude to south which is the largest migration range indicated by geochemical indexes. The desert-steppe and more wild environment distributed widely on the Loess Plateau at that time. The development of gypsum also indicates that the climate changed at 450 kaBP from monsoon climate to nonmonsoon climate in the Loess Plateau, and the region was not affected by summer monsoon and was in the cold and dry environment of nonmonsoon climate. Annual mean precipitation was about 200 mm, 400 mm less at that time than at present.

Cryogenic wedges on the NE Qinghai-Tibet and Ordos Plateaus:Their characteristics,origin and OSL dating

Cryogenic wedges developed due to very cold,rather arid conditions during the maximum of the last cold event when the drying up of the neighboring China Sea resulted in the failure of the East Asian Monsoon.As the climate ameliorated and the Monsoon rains reappeared,ice-wedges developed.Further warming permitted thawing of the ice infillings accompanied by replacement of the ice by sediments partly from the host ground as well as from the surface by wind or sheet wash.In cases of extreme surface water flow on slopes after 10 ka B.P.,small baydjarakhs typically c.50 cm high developed,only to have the resulting hollows infilled by sediments carried by wind and/or sheet wash.These shallow structures form a network on top of many of the cryogenic wedges.This complex history makes dating the ages of the wedges difficult using OSL methodology.Unfortunately,past field work ignored the problem of the angle of the cut face to the direction of the wedge infilling when sampling the contents of the narrow wedges,resulting in potential contamination of the samples with the host sediment.Sampling of the larger deposits should be alright,but the likelihood of contamination makes the interpretation of the resulting OSL dates from the narrow wedges questionable.Primary wedges consisting of primary mineral infillings should still have similar OSL dates with depth for a given wedge,but the distinction between ice-wedge infillings and soil wedges is difficult since both can exhibit older dates of the infillings with depth.The available data suggests that ice-wedges were significantly more common than sediment-filled primary wedges.A protocol to avoid having to obtain large numbers of OSL dates by more careful field sampling and the use of grain size determinations is provided in the Appendix.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN DRY AND WET SUMMER IN THE VERTICAL MOTION ON NORTH SIDE OF QINGHAI-XIZANG PLATEAU AND THE THERMAL IMPACT OF PLATEAU

To better analyse and understand the causes of Northwest China(NW China)arid climate formation,firstly the dry and wet standards were chosen and the yearly dry and wet grades on the north side of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau(hereafter NSQXP)in summers were classified utilizing the rainfall data of five stations over the area in June-August of 1952—1990.Then the differences between the vertical motion over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau(QXP)and NSQXP in dry and wet summers were comparatively analyzed using the ECMWF's gridded data of June—August of 1979 —1986.Finally the connection between the QXP surface thermal condition and the dry and wet summers on the NSQXP was discussed as well. The main results are the following:(1)the dry and wet standards taking the rainfall standard deviation as criterion are suitable for the arid climate area;(2)the QXP may be,to some extent. responsible for the environment background of Middle Asia,NW China and North China arid climate areas;(3)there are the striking differences between the dominant vertical motion over the QXP and NSQXP in the dry and wet summers of NSQXP:(4)the QXP surface thermal condition is.to a great extent,responsible for the year—to—year variation of NW China arid climate as well.

A NUMERICAL STUDY OF THE PBL CONDITIONS OVER RECLAIMED GRASSLAND

PBL conditions over reclaimed grassland in North China(49°19′N, 119°55′E) are examined using the improved ver- sion of the model developed by Nickerson et al. (1986). Basic results are presented as follows: i) the reclaimed section, or the 'heat island', has noon intensity of 4—6℃, the surface disturbance can be felt at 700 m AGL and convective perturbance at the PBL top, with a convective speed of 1—2 cm / s; ii) once grassland is reclaimed on a large scale, the PBL climate will develop into further aridity; iii) irrigation can alleviate the intensity and dryness of the 'island' but fails to prevent the climate from aridization; iv) the local circulation in the PBL keeps its direction unchanged in 24 hours, i.e., wind blows toward the 'island' at the height below 150—200 m at roughly 2 m/s and returns at higher levels with a slightly smaller speed. Further, moist flow can extend 30—50 km horizontally inside the reclamation.