The Struggle for Atlantic Maritime Security and Safety:Lessons From Africa’s Maritime Security Governance

The enormous economic potentials of the blue/ocean economy have made the maritime domain increasingly susceptible to transnational organized crime and a theater for great power competition,particularly in the Atlantic maritime domain.The maritime security threats are more prevalent in the Atlantic African maritime domain than in other continents.These threats are becoming increasingly detrimental to the African security,safety,and human security,particularly in the coastal countries of the Atlantic Africa.Despite its increasing susceptibility to maritime security threats including great powers competition and the presence of non-Atlantic great powers more than in other maritime domains in Africa,the coastal countries of the Atlantic Sub-Saharan Africa(SSA)have managed to forge strategic inter-regional maritime security partnership that has relatively improved maritime security and safety in the region.There is a growing interest in forging inter-continental partnership of the coastal Atlantic states to collectively respond and address the shared maritime security threats in the entire Atlantic maritime domain.Yet,the way such a complex multilateral partnership would be structured and operationalized has not been worked out.This article assesses the economic potentials,susceptibility to maritime security threats,and level of response to maritime security threats by the coastal countries of the Atlantic SSA with the aim of identifying some lessons that could be relevant for forging the Atlantic inter-continental maritime security partnership.Some of these lessons include genuine partnership that is based on sovereign equality and inter-dependence,a code of conduct,cooperation,and coordination framework,and shared common value system of democratic governance.

The Role of Third States in the EU Maritime Security Strategy: A Case Study of the South Atlantic States

The global challenges to maritime security have long outnumbered the classic interstate war.Increasingly,the new threats have assumed the most real risks,whether human,weapons or drugs traffic,piracy,illegal fishing among others.Some of these challenges,even if they are not in the European Union’s primary strategic maritime area,they have relevant impacts on this.The unstable region of the Gulf of Guinea,for example,with its cases of armed robbery,piracy,or even trafficking(mainly human and drug trafficking)has attracted attention to the several EU Member States,with individual policies that are often poorly articulated.This paper is the result of field research with stakeholders from 17 South Atlantic countries(the research delimitation occurred in South Atlantic Peace and Cooperation Zone[ZOPACAS]members)and concludes that the exogenous(European)point of view of the major challenges that encourage the collaborative participation of the South Atlantic are,necessarily,the ones that have most demanded attention and engagement from the EU Members States.For example,the highest local priority in allocating resources available in the African coast Navies has been to face and control smuggling acts.The African States are seeing it as the biggest threat to its maritime security.The widespread problem of piracy appears only as of the third priority of the regional countries.Besides,the perception of the reputation of control centers coordinated by exogenous members(States and individuals)to the region does not result in joint information sharing engagement or even in maritime domain awareness.Thus,this paper that starts from the maritime security’s typological conceptual presentation―as a complex,divergent,and convergent concept―presents empirical research and identified actions with potential for greater engagement in the South Atlantic region.It seeks to demonstrate the need for EU analysis of exogenous problems should increase the local point of view problem.It therefore serves both the reflection on many of the action points of the Action Plan of European Union Maritime Security Strategy(EUMSS)and on the competences involved by the EU,in particular,as regards the actual role of the EU and its Member States in relation to the maritime security aspects of EU internal policies and EU external relations,EU in negotiating,concluding and implementing international agreements in this area.On the other hand,it also relates to the accountability of EU Member States with other involved actors(the South Atlantic States,regional organizations,and/or local/multinational private actors).

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS OF US ASIA-PACIFIC SECURITY STRATEGY AND CHINA'S COUNTERMEASURES

The US Asia-Pacific strategy is witnessing and will continue to witness new developments along with the evolution of its domestic politics as well as of the regional situation in Asia Pacific,particularly with Republican candidate Donald

Trajectory Design for UAV-Enabled Maritime Secure Communications:A Reinforcement Learning Approach

This paper investigates an unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV)-enabled maritime secure communication network,where the UAV aims to provide the communication service to a legitimate mobile vessel in the presence of multiple eavesdroppers.In this maritime communication networks(MCNs),it is challenging for the UAV to determine its trajectory on the ocean,since it cannot land or replenish energy on the sea surface,the trajectory should be pre-designed before the UAV takes off.Furthermore,the take-off location of the UAV and the sea lane of the vessel may be random,which leads to a highly dynamic environment.To address these issues,we propose two reinforcement learning schemes,Q-learning and deep deterministic policy gradient(DDPG)algorithms,to solve the discrete and continuous UAV trajectory design problem,respectively.Simulation results are provided to validate the effectiveness and superior performance of the proposed reinforcement learning schemes versus the existing schemes in the literature.Additionally,the proposed DDPG algorithm converges faster and achieves higher utilities for the UAV,compared to the Q-learning algorithm.

海洋安全治理面临的挑战与中国的应对之道

海洋安全是国际社会和人类在海洋空间领域的重要的公共产品。海洋安全治理是指不同主体通过各种形式,在海洋空间有效应对各种风险和威胁、维护和保障海洋空间安全状态和能力的一种持续过程。当前,全球海洋安全治理面临着西方国家治理能力减弱、海洋安全治理的权力路径和权利路径的冲突、海洋传统安全和非传统安全边界模糊化以及海洋安全治理的主权性和公共性之间的张力等诸多挑战。中国作为负责任的大国,以总体国家安全观为指导,积极参与全球海洋安全治理,以“治理海洋”来代替“控制海洋”;倡导海洋安全治理的权责共担意识;推进国家治理体系和治理能力的现代化以为海洋安全治理提供能力保证;以和平发展的道路建设海洋强国;实施“一带一路”倡议来实现治理路径的创新;以人类海洋命运共同体作为海洋安全治理的终极目标,从而为海洋安全的有效治理贡献了具有中国特色的应对之道。

战略矿产海运通道安全研究——以铁矿石为例

战略矿产是维护国家安全和稳定发展的基石,保持海运通道畅通是保障战略矿产进口安全的关键举措。本文梳理了我国战略矿产进口及海运通道整体格局,以铁矿石海运进口网络为例,对重要海运通道进行重要性评价和失效影响评估,最后总结了重要海运通道的风险来源,并提出了相应的风险应对策略。研究发现:我国战略矿产进口对海运通道的依赖性极强;在铁矿石海运案例研究中,识别出了海运通道的重要性及失效影响情况,建议构建差异化、精细化应对策略,重视对好望角、龙目海峡等运输通道的保护,重点关注大尺寸船舶的航运安全。我国战略矿产海运通道的风险主要来自航道通行、国际争端与战争威胁、非传统安全等3个方面,对此可实施多领域应对策略,包括打造多元战略支点、构建多维预警系统与替代航线响应机制、加强跨境铁海联运通道建设、开展预防性外交工作、完善海上保障体系、实施等级化和差异化的风险应对措施等。

《互惠准入协定》与日澳海洋安全合作

《互惠准入协定》为日本与“准同盟国”澳大利亚在海洋安全领域的密切合作提供了清晰的实施路径与法理依据。在双边层面,日澳海洋安全领域的合作内容不断拓宽;在多边层面,两国配合美国推行“印太战略”,持续深化美日澳安全与防务合作。在《互惠准入协定》框架下,未来日澳两国间的海洋安全合作将会继续深化,武装力量在对方国家的相互部署也将常态化。日澳出于自身利益考虑,不断加强防务合作,积极向军事“准同盟”方向迈进,势必破坏亚太地区现有战略平衡,给地区乃至世界的安全与稳定带来严重挑战。

人工智能军事化与海洋安全:风险与应对

人工智能作为当前科技变革中的战略性力量,具备“专用性与通用性”“能力—脆弱悖论”“成长性”“军民两用性”的特征,正从海上作战平台侦测信息的智能化分析、增强海战武器装备效能、推动智能化指挥决策系统建立、提高海上后勤保障可持续性等方面赋能海上作战体系,加速海上人工智能军事化进程。为维护国家海洋安全利益与增强海上军事优势,部分国家与联盟组织也相继出台军用人工智能战略文件或合作协议,各有侧重地将人工智能融入现有军事体系中。在此过程中,美国力求在军用人工智能领域全面发展以护持海上霸权,与盟友协同推进,并高度重视中俄等竞争对手海上的人工智能军事运用。人工智能军事化态势迅疾演进,或将强化全球海洋安全环境的不确定性与复杂性,表现为加剧新型海上军备竞赛风险、升级海上冲突风险、助长海上非传统安全风险、增加中国海洋维权风险。应对军用人工智能对海洋安全的挑战,必须推动海上军用人工智能运用治理,加强大国双边及多边的海上危机管控对话。于中国而言,针对当前最紧迫的海洋安全风险,应在海洋态势感知、军民融合、涉海虚假信息治理等方面提高应对海上人工智能军事化的技术与组织能力。

日本海域态势感知体系的“海洋安全实践”效应

2018年,日本发布第三期《海洋基本计划》,将强化海域态势感知能力列为重点事项。通过加强信息收集系统、信息共享系统和开展国际合作等一系列措施,日本海域态势感知体系渐趋完善。安全实践论认为,行为体以海洋安全的名义进行的实践活动,决定了海洋安全的定义,其中,海域态势感知是最主要的实践。因此,基于海洋安全的意义建构、海洋安全的议题制度化以及海洋安全共同体化趋势三个维度,探究日本海域态势感知体系的“海洋安全实践”效应。一方面,该体系赋予了“海洋安全”必要性,强化了多元主体的“制度化”关联,推动了“准海洋安全联盟”网络建立;另一方面,正是这三方面存在的限定因素,为日本实践“海洋安全”进程带来障碍。

海盗袭击风险评估与反海盗应对策略评价

为合理评估海盗袭击风险,实现反海盗应对策略科学评价,提出一种基于树形增强朴素(tree augmented native,TAN)贝叶斯网络的海盗袭击风险评估模型。根据西非地区海盗袭击事件的实际数据确定贝叶斯网络中各节点之间的概率依赖关系,保障评估结果的准确性。运用情景构建、灵敏度分析和Shapley值模型识别影响海盗袭击的关键因素,并科学评价反海盗应对策略的效果。结果表明:船速、攻击、海军护航是影响海盗袭击的关键因素,船员抵抗和海军护航是较为有效的反海盗应对策略。海盗袭击风险与采取反海盗应对策略之间存在着较为明显的线性影响关系,不同反海盗应对策略组合对海盗袭击的风险概率呈现差异性。该结果可为航运企业科学评估海盗袭击风险、制定反海盗策略提供参考依据。

中国远洋原油运输发展现状及建议

乌克兰危机发生后,部分国家禁止进口购买俄罗斯原油和超过限价的原油,全球原油贸易流向重构,原油海运距离有较大幅度增长,原油油轮运力供不应求,叠加国际海事组织(IMO)环保新规出台等因素,全球原油运输成本和运输风险大幅提高。全球海运形势的变化影响中国能源安全局势,本文分析了中国远洋原油运输中存在的主要问题,包括自有运力无法满足原油进口需求,自有航运保险难以提供有力保障,洲际运输占比大导致运输成本和风险大等。建议加强中国远洋原油油轮能力建设,提高自主承运能力和船队装备水平,提升“国油国运”比例;大力发展海运船舶运输保险业务,增强保赔保险领域反制裁能力,提高“国运国保”能力;增加周边国家原油进口量和陆上进口能力,降低对远洋原油船舶运力的需求。

中美博弈背景下的美国港口国管辖:趋势、风险与应对

海洋是当前中美博弈的重要场域,美国近年来不断推行对华海上竞争,对中国的海上活动进行遏制围堵。在此背景下,美国的港口国立法在入港安全审查和环保要求方面更加严格,并通过扩大执法权增强美国的海上执法力量。其港口国执法实践也呈现新动向,体现在持续强化环保、安全和劳工高标准执法等方面,通过执法协议扩展域外执法范围,意识形态主导的针对性执法增多,加强对北极海域的管控等方面。美国不断强化港口国管辖的态势给我国海上安全和发展利益带来重大风险和挑战。我国应积极应对,重视加强国际海事规则履约,促进港口国管辖权规则完善,同时扩大与港口国家构建蓝色伙伴关系,推动形成港口国监督执法共同体,维护我国的海上安全和发展利益。

日本强化东盟国家海上安保能力的政策及影响分析

利用东盟国家在南海问题上发难,是日本牵制中国、呼应美国的重要政策手段。基于这一地缘政治考虑,日本主要从海域态势感知、海上执法与海上防卫等三个方面为东盟强化海上安保能力提供支持。为了评估这一政策的具体落实及其对南海局势的实际影响,本文从地缘政治视角出发,对日本支持东盟强化海上安保能力进行了系统评估,并以南海争端中两个主要争议方越南、菲律宾为重点,分析了日本政策的演进及其特点。总体上看,日本的支持提高了相关东盟国家海上安保能力现代化的水平,增强了相关东盟国家对抗中国的信心,增加了南海冲突发生的机率,从而成为恶化南海局势的重要外部诱因。与此同时,日本政策及其影响受到东盟大国平衡立场以及不同成员国认知的限制。展望未来,日本在美国的鼓励与要求下还会进一步强化其对东南亚局势的介入,部分东盟国家特别是菲律宾与日本的互动可能进一步强化,中国维护南海的和平与稳定的努力也将面临更大的挑战。

船舶抵押权制度完善研究

如何实现《海商法》与《民法典》的有效对接是修改船舶抵押权法律制度时必须考虑的问题。尤其应当注意,由于个别船舶抵押权规则无法被一般担保物权规则简单地所兼容,需要对其作出有别于《民法典》的制度安排。其一,应当维持限制抵押船舶转让的规则,此时需要将交易安全置于立法价值的优先位置予以考量,但可以引入第三人涤除权保障船舶的交换价值能够得到再次实现。其二,应当在坚守司法保护主义立法模式的前提下,增添“司法变卖”此种途径帮助船舶抵押权实现。其三,应当创设船舶份额抵押权规则,并通过修改《船舶登记条例》的有关规定使得各按份共有人之间的利益达到实质性平衡。

迈向“准同盟”:日菲海洋安全合作的演进、动因与前景

2011年日菲关系升级为“战略伙伴关系”,两国海洋安全合作得以快速发展,在共同身份塑造、合作机制构建、海上演训开展、海洋安全技术与装备援助等方面取得了显著进展。日菲强化安全合作并非偶然现象,除了受美国同盟体系转型、安全承诺下降等外部压力的影响,也受两国亟须共同应对安全议题,协作推进彼此对外战略等内生动力的驱动。在以上多重因素推动下,日菲安全互动进一步升温,呈现向“准同盟”发展的趋势。尤其值得关注的是,美日菲协同打造东海、台海、南海“三海”联动机制的趋向日渐清晰,势必对我国领土主权与海洋权益、外部安全环境带来较明显的负面影响。

美国“重返亚太”以来海岸警卫队的角色调整及其对中国的影响

自美国“重返亚太”以来,海岸警卫队经历了奥巴马政府侧重“培训与援助”的亚太外交角色、特朗普政府聚焦“持久与专业”的印太部署角色到拜登政府承担“重要与核心”的国家安全角色等三个阶段的调整,实质上完成了从海上执法合作的外交工具属性到服务大国竞争的国家安全属性的转化过程。美国海岸警卫队角色的调整是出于充当美国亚太战略软实力工具、维护所谓“基于规则的国际秩序”、应对“混合威胁”与实施“一体化威慑”、完善海域态势感知体系布局以及自身建设发展的需要。这种角色转换将促使中国周边海上安全形势更加复杂,挤压中国与太平洋岛国的海上合作空间,威胁中国海洋资源权益与渔船民安全,损害中国在亚太地区的国际形象,以及配合美国政府深化北极战略竞争等。但美国海岸警卫队参与“印太行动”仍受到诸多因素制约,其对华影响将受到一定限制。鉴于此,中国在提高认识的同时,要积极利用好美国海岸警卫队参与亚太行动的掣肘因素来制定应对之策。

A Security Model and Legal Guarantee for Chinese Maritime Shipping： As Exemplified in the Response to Piracy along the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road

建设“一带一路”，是实现中华民族伟大复兴的重大战略决策。海上航运的安全，在“一带一路”战略中占有重要地位。近年来，海盗、海上武装劫持、海上恐怖袭击等海上暴恐事件频仍，对国际和中国海运利益构成极大威胁，对实施海上丝路战略构成严重挑战。确保海运安全免遭海上暴力的直接威胁的措施有五种。以防范索马里海盗为例，聘请专业安保公司实施驻船武装护卫，是确保海运安全的有效模式，不仅符合国际法，也为许多发达国家和地区法律所允许，在夯实中国海洋总体安全上具有战略意义。在中国语境下，该模式面临法律风险，应在新型国家安全法律观的统合下，加强法律保障，与军舰（机）护航齐力协作，共同型构中国海运安全的最佳模式，确保中国海上核心利益的实现。

Gulf Region and EU’s Maritime Security Strategy:The Expanding‘Blue Border’?

The European Union(EU)and its core member states are active participants and stakeholders in the security affairs of the Gulf region.European maritime security is not only an important extension of European security in geospatial and functional areas,but also an indispensable part of Europe’s overall security strategy.However,the attention to the EU’s maritime security was distracted before 2010,while the concern for European maritime security and the Gulf region was limited to safe transit routes through the international straits and archipelagic waters of the Gulf region.With the tension in Gulf was increased by oil tanker attacks,the role of EU and its core member states as major stakeholders in Gulf maritime security affairs has been more and more important.

Historical Experience for and Realistic Challenges to Building Security Order in the Asia-Pacific Region

Compared with the rest of the world,the Asia-Pacific region has maintained a relatively stable and prosperous overall posture in the past three decades.Despite the ups and downs of hot security issues in the region,they have been basically under reasonable crisis management and control.

Major Changes of China-U.S. Relations and their Impacts on the Asia-Pacific Security

Since Trump in power for about one year and half, the United States has released several documents including the National Security Strategy report, the National Defense Strategy report, Nuclear Posture Review, etc. which have made new judgments on the U.S. security threats, and new adjustments on its diplomatic strategy. Regarding relations with China.