Central Asian Economies(CAEs)have diverse exchange rate policies.They have recorded higher volatility in the foreign exchange market since inception.High volatility of the transition era has drifted these economies to...Central Asian Economies(CAEs)have diverse exchange rate policies.They have recorded higher volatility in the foreign exchange market since inception.High volatility of the transition era has drifted these economies towards partial dollarization.Monetary authorities in CAEs,(already have a challenge of maintaining monetary policy autonomy)have a gigantic task of price stability and stopping the spread of dollarization.This study is directed towards assessing the drivers and the determinants of foreign exchange market pressure in CAEs.The results,based on panel data analysis and the System GMM model,have provided useful insights about the exchange market pressure determinants particularly USD,Euro,Ruble,and Renminbi.The results show that China and Russia exchange market pressure has a negative effect on the exchange market pressure of CAEs.While the dollar index shows a positive impact on the exchange market pressure of CAEs.Overall,the findings imply that China and Russia currency appreciation results in a trade deficit across CAEs.The policy implication suggests that the floating exchange rate regime(inflation targeting regime)is not in favor of CAEs,and they must use managed-float to reduce their trade deficits.展开更多
China and some other Asian economies are the main providers of manufactured goods to the world. Similar geographical distribution, endowment structure and level of economic development mean that there is ferce competi...China and some other Asian economies are the main providers of manufactured goods to the world. Similar geographical distribution, endowment structure and level of economic development mean that there is ferce competition among Asian economies in the international market. In an effort to understand thoroughly the model of export competition of Asian economies, this paper breaks the trade flow data into the quantity, variety and quality. The main conclusions are as follows： First, the export competition of the Asian economies takes place at the several levels of quantity, quality and variety, and the competitive advantage of different countries and regions lies in different aspect,＂ second, the variety and quality of exports are closely related to the economic development level; third, there are strong trade ties among the Asian economies competing in the world commodity market;fourth, bigger countries export more produets in terms of quantity;fifth, the change from quantity competition to quality and variety competition is the only way for China to achieve sustainable export growth.展开更多
Society is currently transitioning from the era of informatization and digitization to the era of intelligence.Advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence,the Internet of Things,and big data are permeating e...Society is currently transitioning from the era of informatization and digitization to the era of intelligence.Advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence,the Internet of Things,and big data are permeating every aspect of production and life.This penetration presents a rare opportunity for the development of digital trade and catalyzes innovation in traditional trade patterns.This paper first analyzes the inevitability of digital trade development in Northeast Asia.Secondly,it delves into the challenges faced by digital trade development and explores in-depth the promotion strategy for digital trade’s impact on the economic development of the Northeast Asia region,providing insights from various perspectives for reference.展开更多
The rapid growth of Asian economies and their rising share of the global economy give rise to a prevailing view that the global economic center is moving eastward. At least over the next decade, however, Asia is unlik...The rapid growth of Asian economies and their rising share of the global economy give rise to a prevailing view that the global economic center is moving eastward. At least over the next decade, however, Asia is unlikely to become the global economic center. There are multiple reasons .for this. First, insufficient demands from end consumers will make it difficult to reduce Asian economies＇ reliance on other markets for exports. Second, Asian economies＇ continued growth will be constrained both by insufficient innovation and by future global climate change regulations. Because of international labor division, moreover, it will be increasingly difficult to achieve leapfrog development. Third, there are several obstacles to building an integrated Asian market： these will prevent Asian economies .from shaping a common ground regarding international affairs. If Asian countries are unable to make breakthroughs in these three areas, the global economic system may exhibit asymmetrical ＂dual centers＂, i.e, a global manufacturing center in Asia and a global financial center in Europe and America.展开更多
Based on the convergence hypothesis and referring to the experience of East Asian high-performing economies from 1950 to 2010, this paper projects and plots the potential growth rate of the Chinese economy over the ne...Based on the convergence hypothesis and referring to the experience of East Asian high-performing economies from 1950 to 2010, this paper projects and plots the potential growth rate of the Chinese economy over the next 20years. It predicts that the potential growth rate of per capita GDP adjusted by purchasing power parity averages at 6. 02 percent from 2015 to 2035, while the potential GDP growth rate of 2015 would still be above 8percent, which implies that the realized rate of growth has not reached its potential since 2012. Besides, based on the per capita GDP projected and on cross -country comparison, the paper plots the trajectory of structural change of the Chinese economy from 2015 to 2035. The result shows that： （i） the value-added share of primary industry will drop more rapidly than the employment share; （ii） the value-added share of secondary industry will decline and employment share will present an inverted U shape whose turning point will probably come between 2020 and 2025; （iii） both the value-added and employment share of tertiary industry will increase continuously.展开更多
文摘Central Asian Economies(CAEs)have diverse exchange rate policies.They have recorded higher volatility in the foreign exchange market since inception.High volatility of the transition era has drifted these economies towards partial dollarization.Monetary authorities in CAEs,(already have a challenge of maintaining monetary policy autonomy)have a gigantic task of price stability and stopping the spread of dollarization.This study is directed towards assessing the drivers and the determinants of foreign exchange market pressure in CAEs.The results,based on panel data analysis and the System GMM model,have provided useful insights about the exchange market pressure determinants particularly USD,Euro,Ruble,and Renminbi.The results show that China and Russia exchange market pressure has a negative effect on the exchange market pressure of CAEs.While the dollar index shows a positive impact on the exchange market pressure of CAEs.Overall,the findings imply that China and Russia currency appreciation results in a trade deficit across CAEs.The policy implication suggests that the floating exchange rate regime(inflation targeting regime)is not in favor of CAEs,and they must use managed-float to reduce their trade deficits.
基金Financial support from Young Scientists Fund of National Natural Science Foundation of China （Grant No. 71003107）, and Special Fund of Fundamental Scientific Research for Central Government-Supervised Higher Education Institutions, is gratefully acknowledged.
文摘China and some other Asian economies are the main providers of manufactured goods to the world. Similar geographical distribution, endowment structure and level of economic development mean that there is ferce competition among Asian economies in the international market. In an effort to understand thoroughly the model of export competition of Asian economies, this paper breaks the trade flow data into the quantity, variety and quality. The main conclusions are as follows： First, the export competition of the Asian economies takes place at the several levels of quantity, quality and variety, and the competitive advantage of different countries and regions lies in different aspect,＂ second, the variety and quality of exports are closely related to the economic development level; third, there are strong trade ties among the Asian economies competing in the world commodity market;fourth, bigger countries export more produets in terms of quantity;fifth, the change from quantity competition to quality and variety competition is the only way for China to achieve sustainable export growth.
文摘Society is currently transitioning from the era of informatization and digitization to the era of intelligence.Advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence,the Internet of Things,and big data are permeating every aspect of production and life.This penetration presents a rare opportunity for the development of digital trade and catalyzes innovation in traditional trade patterns.This paper first analyzes the inevitability of digital trade development in Northeast Asia.Secondly,it delves into the challenges faced by digital trade development and explores in-depth the promotion strategy for digital trade’s impact on the economic development of the Northeast Asia region,providing insights from various perspectives for reference.
文摘The rapid growth of Asian economies and their rising share of the global economy give rise to a prevailing view that the global economic center is moving eastward. At least over the next decade, however, Asia is unlikely to become the global economic center. There are multiple reasons .for this. First, insufficient demands from end consumers will make it difficult to reduce Asian economies＇ reliance on other markets for exports. Second, Asian economies＇ continued growth will be constrained both by insufficient innovation and by future global climate change regulations. Because of international labor division, moreover, it will be increasingly difficult to achieve leapfrog development. Third, there are several obstacles to building an integrated Asian market： these will prevent Asian economies .from shaping a common ground regarding international affairs. If Asian countries are unable to make breakthroughs in these three areas, the global economic system may exhibit asymmetrical ＂dual centers＂, i.e, a global manufacturing center in Asia and a global financial center in Europe and America.
文摘Based on the convergence hypothesis and referring to the experience of East Asian high-performing economies from 1950 to 2010, this paper projects and plots the potential growth rate of the Chinese economy over the next 20years. It predicts that the potential growth rate of per capita GDP adjusted by purchasing power parity averages at 6. 02 percent from 2015 to 2035, while the potential GDP growth rate of 2015 would still be above 8percent, which implies that the realized rate of growth has not reached its potential since 2012. Besides, based on the per capita GDP projected and on cross -country comparison, the paper plots the trajectory of structural change of the Chinese economy from 2015 to 2035. The result shows that： （i） the value-added share of primary industry will drop more rapidly than the employment share; （ii） the value-added share of secondary industry will decline and employment share will present an inverted U shape whose turning point will probably come between 2020 and 2025; （iii） both the value-added and employment share of tertiary industry will increase continuously.
