YUNNAN INSTITUTE OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN STUDIES

Yunnan Institute of Southeast Aslanstudles， the key institute of Yunnan Academy ofSocial Sciences， Is a scientific． non—for—profit organization which Is engaged In studyingSoutheast Asian Affairs． It is one of the major Institutes ofsoutheast Asian Studies In Chl－na．

Numerical Study for Characteristic Change of Asian Summer Monsoon Circulation and Its Influence Mechanism during the EI Nino Period

In this paper, the relation between Asian summer monsoon circulation and sea surface temperature anomalies over equatorial central-eastern Pacific is investigated by using a global spectral model. This model has nine layers in the vertical and the model variables are represented in the horizontal as truncated expansions of the surface spherical harmonics with rhomboidal truncation at wave number 15. The model involves comparatively complete physical processes and parameterizations with mountains.Using the above model, two experimental schemes are designed, namely control case and anomalous sea surface temperature case. The above two schemes are respectively integrated for forty days and the simulated results are obtained from the last 30-day averaged simulations.The simulations show that positive SST anomalies over equatorial central-eastern Pacific weakens Indian monsoon circulation,decreases precipitation in Indian sub-continent whereas it intensifies East Asian monsoon circulation and increases precipitation in East Asian area. All these results reflect the characteristics of Asian summer monsoon during the El Nino period. In this paper, SST anomalies over equatorial central-eastern Pacific have a direct influence on the intensity and position of subtropical high via the wave train over Northern Hemisphere, which is similar to that suggested by Nitta(1987) and the wave train over Southern Hemisphere has an influence on the intensity of Muscarene high and Australia high resulting in affecting cross equatorial flow. As a result, atmospheric interior heat sources and sinks are redistributed because of the change of cross equatorial flow. And the response of atmosphere to the new heat source and sink has a significant influence on Asian summer monsoon.

A STUDY ON MASS BALANCE OF HIGH ASIAN GLACIERS

Glaciers play an important role in the global water cycling especially in the balance of fresh water on our planet, which exhibits a significant impact on global changes. This paper describes the role of glaciers in the water cycle and global changes and that of High Asian glaciers and their fluctuations, and introduces the global monitoring project on glacier mass balance and the progress in corresponding research in China.

Role of ammonia in predicting the outcome of patients with acuteon- chronic liver failure

BACKGROUND High venous ammonia(VA)values have been proven to be a part of the mechanism of hepatic encephalopathy in patients with liver cirrhosis(LC)as well as acute hepatitis.Moreover,VA has been associated with poor prognosis and high mortality in these clinical settings.However,the role of ammonia in acuteon-chronic liver failure(ACLF)has not yet been clearly established.AIM To assess the role of VA in predicting the outcome of cirrhotic patients with ACLF in a tertiary care center.METHODS We performed a retrospective observational study including consecutive patients with LC hospitalized for acute non-elective indications such as ascites,hepatic encephalopathy(HE),upper gastrointestinal bleeding,or bacterial infections that fulfilled the Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver(APASL)criteria for ACLF.The study was conducted in“St.Spiridon”University Hospital,Iasi,Romania,a tertiary care center,between January 2017 and January 2019.The APASL ACLF Research Consortium(AARC)score was calculated and ACLF grade was established accordingly.West-haven classification was used for HE.Statistical analysis was performed using IBM SPSS version 22.0.RESULTS Four hundred and forty-six patients were included,aged 59(50-65)years,57.4%men.Child-Pugh,model for end-stage liver disease(MELD)and AARC scores were 11(10-12),19.13±6.79,and 7(6-8),respectively.66.4%had ACLF grade I,31.2%ACLF grade II,and 2.5%ACLF grade III.HE was diagnosed in 83.9%,34%grade I,37.2%grade II,23.5%grade III,and 5.3%grade IV.Overall mortality was 7.8%.VA was 103(78-148)μmol/L.Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed good accuracy for the prediction of in-hospital mortality for the AARC score[Area under the curve(AUC)=0.886],MELD score(AUC=0.816),VA(AUC=0.812)and a fair accuracy for the Child-Pugh score(AUC=0.799).Subsequently,a cut-off value for the prediction of mortality was identified for VA(152.5μmol/L,sensitivity=0.706,1-specificity=0.190).Univariate analysis found acute kidney injury,severe HE(grade III or IV),VA≥152.5μmol/L,MELD score≥22.5,Child-Pugh score≥12.5,and AARC score≥8.5 to be associated with inhospital mortality.Multivariate analysis identified AARC score≥8.5 and venous ammonia≥152μmol/L to be independent predictors of in-hospital mortality.CONCLUSION VA could be used as an inexpensive predictor of in-hospital mortality in patients with ACLF.Patients with both ACLF and VA>152.5μmol/L have a high risk for a poor outcome.

The Institute of West Asian and African Studies

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