How to Create“Asianism”:A Reading of Takeuchi Yoshimi’s “Asia as Method”and“Prospects for Asianism”

Takeuchi Yoshimi is one of the very few postwar Japanese intellectuals to openly engage in discussions on Asia intricacy and to deal with the most complicated component of the Japan-Asia relationship:problems of emotion.One key feature of Takeuchi^approach lies in the fact that he is not only a profound thinker but also a sensitive litterateur.For this reason,in addition to the fact that it is already very difficult to form an objective and widely agreed view on Takeuchi and his approach,it is hard to avoid the emotional aspect when evaluating his thoughts.This essay does not aim to discuss his rights and wrongs;rather,it is an attempt to analyze the inner logic of Takeuchi^thoughts,to understand and grasp the intensity and structure of his thoughts and emotions,and to demonstrate where his sense of urgency lies,thereby allowing to view the examination of the diverse and complex nature of discourses on Asianism in Japan in a new light.

Historical biogeography and evolutionary diversification of Lilium(Liliaceae): New insights from plastome phylogenomics

Here, we infer the historical biogeography and evolutionary diversification of the genus Lilium. For this purpose, we used the complete plastomes of 64 currently accepted species in the genus Lilium(14plastomes were newly sequenced) to recover the phylogenetic backbone of the genus and a timecalibrated phylogenetic framework to estimate biogeographical history scenarios and evolutionary diversification rates of Lilium. Our results suggest that ancient climatic changes and geological tectonic activities jointly shaped the distribution range and drove evolutionary radiation of Lilium, including the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum(MMCO), the late Miocene global cooling, as well as the successive uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP) and the strengthening of the monsoon climate in East Asia during the late Miocene and the Pliocene. This case study suggests that the unique geological and climatic events in the Neogene of East Asia, in particular the uplift of QTP and the enhancement of monsoonal climate, may have played an essential role in formation of uneven distribution of plant diversity in the Northern Hemisphere.

Early Neoproterozoic Granite-Gneisses of the Junggar Alataw(Southeastern Kazakhstan):Age,Petrogenesis and Tectonic Implications

The combined petrographic,petrological,geochemical and geochronological study of the Neoproterozoic gneisses of the Sarychabyn and Baskan complexes of the Junggar Alataw of South Kazakhstan elucidate the Precambrian tectonic evolution of the Aktau–Yili terrane.It is one of the largest Precambrian crustal blocks in the western Central Asian orogenic belt.The U-Pb single-grain zircon ages indicate that granite-gneisses formed from the same source and crystallised in the early Neoproterozoic ca.930–920 Ma.The chemical composition of gneisses corresponds to A2-type granites.The whole-rock Nd isotopic characteristics(εNd(t)=−4.9 to−1.0 and TNd(DM-2st)=1.9 to 1.7 Ga)indicate the involvement of Paleoproterozoic crustal rocks in magma generation.Early Neoproterozoic ca.930–920 Ma A-type granitoids in the Aktau–Yili terrane of South and Central Kazakhstan might reflect within-plate magmatism adjacent to the collisional belt or a local extension setting in back-arc areas of the continental arc.

Geochronology and Geochemistry of the Xingxingxia Triassic A-type Granites in Central Tianshan,NW China:Petrogenesis and Tectonic Implications

The Triassic granitoids in Central Tianshan play a key role in determining the petrogenesis and tectonic evolution on the southern margin of the Central Asian orogenic belt.In this study,we present SHRIMP zircon U-Pb ages,Hf isotopic and geochemical data on the Xingxingxia biotite granite,amazonite granite and granitic pegmatite in Central Tianshan,NW China.Zircon U-Pb dating yielded formation ages of 242 Ma for the biotite granite and 240 Ma for the amazonite granite.These granitoid rocks have high K_(2)O with low MgO and CaO contents.They are enriched in Nb,Ta,Hf and Y,while being depleted in Ba and Sr,showing flat HREE patterns and negative Eu anomalies.They have typical A-type granite geochemical signatures with high Ga/A_(1)(8–13)and TFeO/(TFeO+MgO)ratios,showing an A_(2) affinity for biotite granite and an A_(1) affinity for amazonite granite and granitic pegmatite.Zircon ε_(Hf)(t)values of the granitoids are 0.45–2.66,with Hf model ages of 0.99–1.17 Ga.This suggests that these A-type granites originated from partial melting of the lower crust.We propose that Xingxingxia Triassic A-type granites formed under lithospheric extension from post-orogenic to anorogenic intraplate settings and NE-trending regional strike-slip fault-controlled magma emplacement in the upper crust.

Zircon U-Pb ages in the Nuratau ophiolitic mélange in the southern Tianshan,Uzbekistan:Implication for the closure of Paleo-Asian Ocean

1.Objective The Central Asian Orogenic Belt(CAOB),which is located between the European craton,Siberian craton,and Tarim-North China craton(Fig.1a),is the largest phanerozoic accretionary orogen in the world.It resulted from the longterm subduction and accretion of the Paleo-Asian Ocean(PAO).The PAO has been in existence since at least the late Mesoproterozoic(about 1020 Ma).However,there has been debate about the closing time of the PAO.

Plastid phylogenomics provides new insights into the systematics,diversification,and biogeography of Cymbidium(Orchidaceae)

Cymbidium(Orchidaceae:Epidendroideae),with around 60 species,is widely-distributed across Southeast Asia,providing a nice system for studying the processes that underlie patterns of biodiversity in the region.However,phylogenetic relationships of Cymbidium have not been well resolved,hampering investigations of species diversification and the biogeographical history of this genus.In this study,we construct a plastome phylogeny of 56 Cymbidium species,with four well-resolved major clades,which provides a framework for biogeographical and diversification rate analyses.Molecular dating and biogeographical analyses show that Cymbidium likely originated in the region spanning northern IndoBurma to the eastern Himalayas during the early Miocene(~21.10 Ma).It then rapidly diversified into four major clades in East Asia within approximately a million years during the middle Miocene.Cymbidium spp.migration to the adjacent regions(Borneo,Philippines,and Sulawesi)primarily occurred during the Pliocene-Pleistocene period.Our analyses indicate that the net diversification rate of Cymbidium has decreased since its origin,and is positively associated with changes in temperature and monsoon intensity.Favorable hydrothermal conditions brought by monsoon intensification in the early Miocene possibly contributed to the initial rapid diversification,after which the net diversification rate was reduced with the cooling climate after the middle Miocene.The transition from epiphytic to terrestrial habits may have enabled adaptation to cooler environments and colonization of northern niches,yet without a significant effect on diversification rates.This study provides new insights into how monsoon activity and temperature changes affected the diversification dynamics of plants in Southeast Asia.

Persistent Variations in the East Asian Trough from March to April and the Possible Mechanism

The East Asian trough(EAT)profoundly influences the East Asian spring climate.In this study,the relationship of the EATs among the three spring months is investigated.Correlation analysis shows that the variation in March EAT is closely related to that of April EAT.Extended empirical orthogonal function(EEOF)analysis also confirms the co-variation of the March and April EATs.The positive/negative EEOF1 features the persistent strengthened/weakened EAT from March to April.Further investigation indicates that the variations in EEOF1 are related to a dipole sea surface temperature(SST)pattern over the North Atlantic and the SST anomaly over the tropical Indian Ocean.The dipole SST pattern over the North Atlantic,with one center east of Newfoundland Island and another east of Bermuda,could trigger a Rossby wave train to influence the EAT in March−April.The SST anomaly over the tropical Indian Ocean can change the Walker circulation and influence the atmospheric circulation over the tropical western Pacific,subsequently impacting the southern part of the EAT in March−April.Besides the SST factors,the Northeast Asian snow cover could change the regional thermal conditions and lead to persistent EAT anomalies from March to April.These three impact factors are generally independent of each other,jointly explaining large variations in the EAT EEOF1.Moreover,the signals of the three factors could be traced back to February,consequently providing a potential prediction source for the EAT variation in March and April.

Provenance of Conglomerate and Sandstone from Early Permian Shoushangou Formation in Xi Ujimqin,Inner Mongolia:Implications for Understanding Paleo-Asian Ocean Subduction

During the Late Carboniferous to Early Permian,a rift was formed by post-collisional extension after ocean closure or an island arc-related basin formed by Paleo-Asian Ocean(PAO)subduction in the Xi Ujimqin area.Nevertheless,the closure time of the PAO is still under debate.Thus,to identify the origin of the PAO,the geochemistry and U-Pb age of zircons were analyzed for the extra-large deep marine,polymict clastic boulders and sandstones in the Shoushangou Formation within the basin.The analyses revealed magmatic activity and tectonic evolution.The conglomerates include megaclasts of granite(298.8±9.1 Ma)and granodiorite porphyry(297.1±3.1 Ma),which were deposited by muddy debris flow.Results of this study demonstrated that the boulders of granitoids have the geochemistry of typical I-type granite,characterized by low Zr+Nb+Ce+Y and low Ga/Al values.The granitoid boulders were formed in island arc setting,indicating the presence of arc magmatism in the area that is composed of the Late Carboniferous to Early Permian subduction-related granitoid in southern Xi Ujimqin.Multiple diagrams for determining sedimentary provenance using major and trace elements indicate that Shoushangou sediments originated from continental island arc-related felsic rocks.Detrital zircon U-Pb age cluster of 330–280 Ma was obtained,indicating input from granite,ophiolite,Xilin Gol complex,and Carboniferous sources to the south.The basin was geographically developed behind the arc during the Early Permian period because the outcropped intrusive rocks in the Late Carboniferous to Early Permian form a volcanic arc.The comprehensive analyses of source areas suggest that Shoushangou sediments developed in a backarc basin in response to the northward subduction of the PAO.The backarc basin and intrusive rocks,in addition to previously published Late Carboniferous to Early Permian magmatic rocks of arc unit in Xilin Gol,confirm the presence of an Early Permian trencharc-basin system in the region,represented by the Baolidao arc and Xi Ujimqin backarc basin.This study highlights the importance and potential of combined geochemical and geochronological studies of conglomerates and sandstone for reconstructing the geodynamic setting of a basin.

Apatite Fission-Track Thermochronology in the Tamusu Area,Bayingobi Basin,NW China,and its Geological Significance

The Bayingobi basin is located in the middle of Central Asia Orogenic Belt,at the intersection of Paleo-Asian Ocean and Tethys Ocean,as well as the junction of multiple tectonic plates.This unique tectonic setting underpins the basin's intricate history of tectonic activity.To unravel the multifaceted tectono-thermal evolution within the southwestern region of the basin and to elucidate the implications of sandstone-hosted uranium mineralization,granitic and clastic rock samples were collected from the Zongnai Mts.uplift and Yingejing depression,and apatite fission track(AFT)dating and thermal history simulation analysis were performed.AFT dating findings reveal that the apparent ages of all samples fall within the range of 244 Ma to 112 Ma.In particular,the bedrock of the Zongnai Mts.and Jurassic detrital apatite fission tracks have undergone complete annealing,capturing the uplift-cooling age.Meanwhile,the AFT ages of Cretaceous detrital rocks are either equivalent to or notably exceed the age of sedimentary strata,signifying the cooling age of the provenance.A comprehensive examination of AFT ages and palaeocurrent direction analyses suggests that the Cretaceous source in the Tamusu area predominantly originated from the central and southern sectors of the Zongnai Mts.uplift.However,at a certain juncture during the Late Early Cretaceous,the Cretaceous provenance expanded to include the northern part of the Zongnai Mts.uplift.Based on the results of thermal history simulations and previous studies,it is considered that the Tamusu area has undergone four distinct tectonic uplift events since the Late Paleozoic.The first is the Late Permian to Early Triassic(260-240 Ma),which is associated with the closure of the Paleo-Asian Ocean and the accretionary orogeny within the Alxa region.The second uplift event took place in the Early Jurassic(190-175 Ma)and corresponded to intraplate orogeny following the closure of the Paleo-Asian Ocean.The third uplift event is the Late Jurassic to Early Cretaceous(160-120 Ma),which is linked to the East Asia's position as the convergence center of multiple tectonic plates during this period.The fourth uplift event is linked to the Late Early Cretaceous(112-100 Ma),driven either by the westward subduction of the eastern Pacific plate or the mantle upwelling resulting from the Bangong-Nujiang oceanic lithosphere subduction and slab break-off.The primary stress orientation for the first three tectonic uplift phases approximated a nearly SN direction,while the fourth stage featured a principal stress direction of NW.The fourth tectonic uplift event of the Late Early Cretaceous and basaltic eruption thermal event during this period likely exerted a significant influence on the formation of the Tamusu sandstone-hosted uranium deposit.

A predictive model for regional zenith tropospheric delay correction

The conventional zenith tropospheric delay(ZTD)model(known as the Saastamoinen model)does not consider seasonal variations affecting the delay,giving it low accuracy and stability.This may be improved with adjustments to account for annual and semi-annual variations.This method uses ZTD data provided by the Global Geodetic Observing System to analyze seasonal variations in the bias of the Saastamoinen model in Asia,and then constructs a model with seasonal variation corrections,denoted as SSA.To overcome the dependence of the model on in-situ meteorological parameters,the SSA+GPT3 model is formed by combining the SSA and GPT3(global pressure-temperature)models.The results show that the introduction of annual and semi-annual variations can substantially improve the Saastamoinen model,yielding small and time-stable variations in bias and root mean square(RMS).In summer and autumn,the bias and RMS are noticeably smaller than those from the Saastamoinen model.In addition,the SSA model performs better in low-latitude and low-altitude areas,and bias and RMS decease with the increase of latitude or altitude.The prediction accuracy of the SSA model is also evaluated for external consistency.The results show that the accuracy of the SSA model(bias:-0.38 cm,RMS:4.43 cm)is better than that of the Saastamoinen model(bias:1.45 cm,RMS:5.16 cm).The proposed method has strong applicability and can therefore be used for predictive ZTD correction across Asia.

KCNQ1 rs2237895 gene polymorphism increases susceptibility to type 2 diabetes mellitus in Asian populations

BACKGROUND The association of single nucleotide polymorphism of KCNQ1 gene rs2237895 with type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM)is currently controversial.It is unknown whether this association can be gene realized across different populations.AIM To determine the association of KCNQ1 rs2237895 with T2DM and provide reliable evidence for genetic susceptibility to T2DM.METHODS We searched PubMed,Embase,Web of Science,Cochrane Library,Medline,Baidu Academic,China National Knowledge Infrastructure,China Biomedical Literature Database,and Wanfang to investigate the association between KCNQ1 gene rs2237895 and the risk of T2DM up to January 12,2022.Review Manager 5.4 was used to analyze the association of the KCNQ1 gene rs2237895 polymorphism with T2DM and to evaluate the publication bias of the selected literature.RESULTS Twelve case–control studies(including 11273 cases and 11654 controls)met our inclusion criteria.In the full population,allelic model[odds ratio(OR):1.19;95%confidence interval(95%CI):1.09–1.29;P<0.0001],recessive model(OR:1.20;95%CI:1.11–1.29;P<0.0001),dominant model(OR:1.27.95%CI:1.14–1.42;P<0.0001),and codominant model(OR:1.36;95%CI:1.15–1.60;P=0.0003)(OR:1.22;95%CI:1.10–1.36;P=0.0002)indicated that the KCNQ1 gene rs2237895 polymorphism was significantly correlated with susceptibility to T2DM.In stratified analysis,this association was confirmed in Asian populations:allelic model(OR:1.25;95%CI:1.13–1.37;P<0.0001),recessive model(OR:1.29;95%CI:1.11–1.49;P=0.0007),dominant model(OR:1.35;95%CI:1.20–1.52;P<0.0001),codominant model(OR:1.49;95%CI:1.22–1.81;P<0.0001)(OR:1.26;95%CI:1.16–1.36;P<0.0001).In non-Asian populations,this association was not significant:Allelic model(OR:1.06,95%CI:0.98–1.14;P=0.12),recessive model(OR:1.04;95%CI:0.75–1.42;P=0.83),dominant model(OR:1.06;95%CI:0.98–1.15;P=0.15),codominant model(OR:1.08;95%CI:0.82–1.42;P=0.60.OR:1.15;95%CI:0.95–1.39;P=0.14).CONCLUSION KCNQ1 gene rs2237895 was significantly associated with susceptibility to T2DM in an Asian population.Carriers of the C allele had a higher risk of T2DM.This association was not significant in non-Asian populations.

About Asian Agricultural Research

Asian Agricultural Research(ISSN 1943-9903),founded in 2009,is a monthly comprehensive agricultural academic journal published and approved by the Library of Congress of the United States of America.

Research Suggests New Toolmaking Timeline for East Asian Hominins

Anew study from the Nihewan basin of China has revealed that hominins who possessed advanced knapping abilities equivalent to Mode 2 technological features occupied East Asia as early as 1.1 million years ago(Ma),which is 0.3 Ma earlier than the date associated with the first handaxes found in East Asia.This suggests that Mode 2 hominins dispersed into East Asia much earlier than previously thought.

Study on the Promotion of Digital Trade to Northeast Asian Regional Economy

Society is currently transitioning from the era of informatization and digitization to the era of intelligence.Advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence,the Internet of Things,and big data are permeating every aspect of production and life.This penetration presents a rare opportunity for the development of digital trade and catalyzes innovation in traditional trade patterns.This paper first analyzes the inevitability of digital trade development in Northeast Asia.Secondly,it delves into the challenges faced by digital trade development and explores in-depth the promotion strategy for digital trade’s impact on the economic development of the Northeast Asia region,providing insights from various perspectives for reference.

Discourse Analysis of the Belt and Road Initiative From the Perspective of Central Asian Countries: A Case Study of the Republic of Kazakhstan

This study employs Norman Fairclough’s Critical Discourse Analysis(CDA)three-dimensional model,using the Republic of Kazakhstan as a case study,to delve into the discourse construction of China’s Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)in Central Asian countries.Through detailed analysis of policy documents,media reports,and public discussions in Central Asian countries,this paper reveals how the BRI constructs specific social practices,discourse events,and textual meanings within these nations.The findings indicate that through this global development strategy,China has not only strengthened its economic ties with Central Asian countries but has also exerted profound influences on political,cultural,and social levels.

Analysis of sex pheromone production and field trapping of the Asian corn borer(Ostrinia furnacalis Guenée)in Xinjiang,China

Identifying the sex pheromone systems of local pest populations facilitates their management,especially for moth species that show significant geographic variation in sex pheromone communication.We investigated the pheromone production and behavioral responses of the Asian corn borer(Ostrinia furnacalis Guenée;ACB)in Xinjiang,China.The ACB produces three compounds:(Z)-12-tetradecenyl acetate(Z12-14:Ac)and(E)-12-tetradecenyl acetate(E12-14:Ac)which are two sex pheromone compounds,and n-tetradecyl acetate(14:Ac)which has variable roles in mediating behavioral responses.The ratios of these three compounds produced in female gland are geographically distinct among different populations.Quantitative analysis of pheromone production showed that the proportions of Z12-14:Ac in the E/Z isomers(i.e.,Z and E12-14:Ac)and the proportions of 14:Ac in the ternary blend respectively averaged 60.46%(SD=5.26)and 25.00%(SD=7.37),with their probabilities normally or near-normally distributed.Trapping experiments in a cornfield indicated that deploying the E/Z isomers and the three compounds in rubber septa close to their gland ratios yielded the most captured males,while other ratios that deviated from the gland ratios showed reduced field captures.The ternary blend was significantly more attractive to males than the E/Z isomers in the field,indicating a functional role of 14:Ac as the third pheromone component used by the local population.Additionally,the dose-response test demonstrated that the application of the three compounds at dosages between 200 and 350μg attracted significantly more males compared to other dosages.Therefore,the characterization of this local ACB pheromone system provides additional information about its geographic variation and serves as a basis for optimizing the pheromone-mediated control of this pest in Xinjiang.

Efficacy and safety of atropine at different concentrations in prevention of myopia progression in Asian children: a systematic review and Meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials

AIM:To assess the efficacy versus the adverse effects of various concentrations of atropine in the prevention of myopia in Asian children.METHODS:Databases(PubMed,EMBASE,the Cochrane Library and Web of science)were comprehensively searched from inception to April 2022.Types of studies included were randomized clinical trials(RCTs).The published languages were limited to English.Two researchers assessed the quality of included studies independently using Cochrane risk of bias tool based on the Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions.Funnel plots and Egger’s test were used for detection of publication bias.Meta-analyses were conducted using STATA(version 15.0;StataCorp).RESULTS:A total of 15 RCTs involving 2268 patients were included in the study.In the atropine group,spherical equivalent progressed at a significantly lower rate[weighted mean difference(WMD)=0.39,95%confidence interval(CI):0.23,0.54]than in the control group.A WMD of 0.15 mm was associated with less axial elongation(95%CI-0.19,-0.10).Different doses showed statistically significant differences(P<0.05)and an improved effect could result from a higher concentration.Changes in photopic pupil size and mesopic pupil size in atropine group is 0.70 mm(95%CI:0.33,1.06)and 0.38 mm(95%CI:0.22,0.54)more than the control group.In the present Meta-analysis,no changes in accommodative amplitude(AA)were associated with atropine administration.Atropine administration increased the risk of adverse effects by 1.37 times.CONCLUSION:Concentrations of less than 1%atropine are able to effectively retard diopter and axis growth of myopia in Asian children in a dose-dependent manner.Meanwhile,it caused pupil enlargement,but induced no change in the AA within this range.Further study is required to determine the dosage needed to achieve maximum efficacy and minimal side effects.

Recent Advances in Understanding Multi-scale Climate Variability of the Asian Monsoon

Studies of the multi-scale climate variability of the Asian monsoon are essential to an advanced understanding of the physical processes of the global climate system.In this paper,the progress achieved in this field is systematically reviewed,with a focus on the past several years.The achievements are summarized into the following topics:(1)the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon;(2)the East Asian summer monsoon;(3)the East Asian winter monsoon;and(4)the Indian summer monsoon.Specifically,new results are highlighted,including the advanced or delayed local monsoon onset tending to be synchronized over the Arabian Sea,Bay of Bengal,Indochina Peninsula,and South China Sea;the basic features of the record-breaking mei-yu in 2020,which have been extensively investigated with an emphasis on the role of multi-scale processes;the recovery of the East Asian winter monsoon intensity after the early 2000s in the presence of continuing greenhouse gas emissions,which is believed to have been dominated by internal climate variability(mostly the Arctic Oscillation);and the accelerated warming over South Asia,which exceeded the tropical Indian Ocean warming,is considered to be the main driver of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall recovery since 1999.A brief summary is provided in the final section along with some further discussion on future research directions regarding our understanding of the Asian monsoon variability.

Transcriptomic analysis reveals the defense mechanisms of citrus infested with Diaphorina citri

Huanglongbing(HLB) is a devastating disease that has led to an acute crisis for growers of citrus, one of the world's most important fruit crops. The phloem-feeding Asian citrus psyllid(ACP), Diaphorina citri, is the main pest at the new shoot stage and is the only natural vector of HLB pathogenic bacteria. Little is known about how plants perceive and defend themselves from this destructive pest. Here, we characterized changes in the expression of various genes in citrus plants that were continuously infested by D. citri for different durations(12, 24, and 48 h). A total of 5 219 differentially expressed genes(DEGs) and 643 common DEGs were identified across all time points. Several pathways related to defense were activated, such as peroxisome, alpha-linolenic acid metabolism, and phenylpropanoid and terpenoid biosynthesis, and some pathways related to growth and signal transduction were suppressed in response to D. citri infestation. The expression of genes including kinases(CML44, CIPK6, and XTH6), phytohormones(SAMT, LOX6, and NPR3), transcription factors(bHLH162, WRKY70, and WRKY40), and secondary metabolite synthesis-related genes(PAL, 4CL2, UGT74B1 and CYP82G1) was significantly altered in response to D. citri infestation. The findings of this study greatly enhance our understanding of the mechanisms underlying the defense response of citrus plants to D. citri infestation at the molecular level. Functional characterization of the candidate defense-related genes identified in this study will aid the molecular breeding of insect-resistant citrus varieties.

Skilful Forecasts of Summer Rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin from November

Variability in the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)brings the risk of heavy flooding or drought to the Yangtze River basin,with potentially devastating impacts.Early forecasts of the likelihood of enhanced or reduced monsoon rainfall can enable better management of water and hydropower resources by decision-makers,supporting livelihoods and major economic and population centres across eastern China.This paper demonstrates that the EASM is predictable in a dynamical forecast model from the preceding November,and that this allows skilful forecasts of summer mean rainfall in the Yangtze River basin at a lead time of six months.The skill for May–June–July rainfall is of a similar magnitude to seasonal forecasts initialised in spring,although the skill in June–July–August is much weaker and not consistently significant.However,there is some evidence for enhanced skill following El Niño events.The potential for decadal-scale variability in forecast skill is also examined,although we find no evidence for significant variation.