Influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on Antarctic surface air temperature during 1900 to 2015

The importance of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation(IPO)in influencing zonally asymmetric changes in Antarctic surface air temperature(SAT)has been established.However,previous studies have primarily concentrated on examining the combined impact of the contrasting phases of the AMO and IPO,which have been dominant since the advent of satellite observations in 1979.This study utilizes long-term reanalysis data to investigate the impact of four combinations of+AMO+IPO,–AMO–IPO,+AMO–IPO,and–AMO+IPO on Antarctic SAT over the past 115 years.The+AMO phase is characterized by a spatial mean temperature amplitude of up to 0.5℃over the North Atlantic Ocean,accompanied by positive sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies in the tropical eastern Pacific and negative SST anomalies in the extratropical-mid-latitude western Pacific,which are indicative of the+IPO phase.The Antarctic SAT exhibits contrasting spatial patterns during the+AMO+IPO and+AMO–IPO periods.However,during the–AMO+IPO period,apart from the Antarctic Peninsula and the vicinity of the Weddell Sea,the entire Antarctic region experiences a warming trend.The most pronounced signal in the SAT anomalies is observed during the austral autumn,whereas the combination of–AMO and–IPO exhibits the smallest magnitude across all the combinations.The wavetrain excited by the SST anomalies associated with the AMO and IPO induces upper-level and surface atmospheric circulation anomalies,which alter the SAT anomalies.Furthermore,downward longwave radiation anomalies related to anomalous cloud cover play a crucial role.In the future,if the phases of AMO and IPO were to reverse(AMO transitioning to a negative phase and IPO transitioning to a positive phase),Antarctica could potentially face more pronounced warming and accelerated melting compared to the current observations.

Air–Sea Coupling Enhances the East Asian Winter Climate Response to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

A simple air-sea coupled model, the atmospheric general circulation model （AGCM） of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction coupled to a mixed-layer slab ocean model, is employed to investigate the impact of air-sea coupling on the signals of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation （AMO）. A regional coupling strategy is applied, in which coupling is switched off in the extratropical North Atlantic Ocean but switched on in the open oceans elsewhere. The coupled model is forced with warm-phase AMO SST anomalies, and the modeled responses are compared with those from parallel uncoupled AGCM experiments with the same SST forcing. The results suggest that the regionally coupled responses not only resemble the AGCM simulation, but also have a stronger intensity. In comparison, the coupled responses bear greater similarity to the observational composite anomaly. Thus, air-sea coupling enhances the responses of the East Asian winter climate to the AMO. To determine the mechanism responsible for the coupling amplification, an additional set of AGCM experiments, forced with the AMO-induced tropical SST anomalies, is conducted. The SST anomalies are extracted from the simulated AMO-induced SST response in the regionally coupled model. The results suggest that the SST anomalies contribute to the coupling amplification. Thus, tropical air-sea coupling feedback tends to enhance the responses of the East Asian winter climate to the AMO.

Simulation by CMIP5 Models of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Its Climate Impacts

This study focuses on the climatic impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation （AMO） as a mode of internal vari- ability. Given the difficulties involved in excluding the effects of external forcing from internal variation, i.e., owing to the short record length of instrumental observations and historical simulations, we assess and compare the AMO and its related climatic impacts both in observations and in the ＂Pre-industrial＂ experiments of models participating in CMIP5. First, we evaluate the skill of the 25 CMIP5 models＇ ＂Historical＂ simulations in simulating the observational AMO, and find there is generally a considerable range of skill among them in this regard. Six of the models with higher skill relative to the other models are selected to investigate the AMO-related climate impacts, and it is found that their ＂Pre-industrial＂ simulations capture the essential features of the AMO. A positive AMO favors warmer surface temperature around the North Atlantic, and the Atlantic ITCZ shifts northward leading to more rainfall in the Sahel and less rainfall in Brazil. Furthermore, the results confirm the existence of a teleconnection between the AMO and East Asian surface temperature, as well as the late withdrawal of the Indian summer monsoon, during positive AMO phases. These connections could be mainly caused by internal climate variability. Opposite patterns are true for the negative phase of the AMO.

Modulation of the Aleutian–Icelandic Low Seesaw and Its Surface Impacts by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

Early studies suggested that the Aleutian–Icelandic low seesaw(AIS) features multidecadal variation. In this study, the multidecadal modulation of the AIS and associated surface climate by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) during late winter(February–March) is explored with observational data. It is shown that, in the cold phase of the AMO(AMO|-),a clear AIS is established, while this is not the case in the warm phase of the AMO(AMO|+). The surface climate over Eurasia is significantly influenced by the AMO’s modulation of the Aleutian low(AL). For example, the weak AL in AMO|-displays warmer surface temperatures over the entire Far East and along the Russian Arctic coast and into Northern Europe,but only over the Russian Far East in AMO|+. Similarly, precipitation decreases over central Europe with the weak AL in AMO|-, but decreases over northern Europe and increases over southern Europe in AMO|+.The mechanism underlying the influence of AMO|-on the AIS can be described as follows: AMO|-weakens the upward component of the Eliassen–Palm flux along the polar waveguide by reducing atmospheric blocking occurrence over the Euro–Atlantic sector, and hence drives an enhanced stratospheric polar vortex. With the intensified polar night jet, the wave trains originating over the central North Pacific can propagate horizontally through North America and extend into the North Atlantic, favoring an eastward-extended Pacific–North America–Atlantic pattern, and resulting in a significant AIS at the surface during late winter.

Current Networks of Long Proxies for Building Reconstruction Models of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

Currently available proxies were studied as networks for building reconstruction models of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Only proxies that would double the current record length (backwards in time from AD 1564) were included. We present two proxy networks and corresponding reconstruction (transfer) models, one for tree-growth based proxies only and another for multiproxies. Both of them show a useful match in timing as well as amplitude with the AMO. These model structures demonstrated reasonable model performance (overall r2 = 0.45 - 0.36). The time stability of proxy-AMO relationships was also validated. The new models produced acceptable results in cross-calibration-verification (reduction of error and coefficient of efficiency statistics in 1856-1921 and 1922-1990 vary between 0.41 and 0.21). The spatial distribution of these data series indicate that proxies respond to an AMO-like climatic oscillation over much of the Northern Hemisphere.

Influence of the NAO on Wintertime Surface Air Temperature over East Asia:Multidecadal Variability and Decadal Prediction

In this paper,we investigate the influence of the winter NAO on the multidecadal variability of winter East Asian surface air temperature(EASAT)and EASAT decadal prediction.The observational analysis shows that the winter EASAT and East Asian minimum SAT(EAmSAT)display strong in-phase fluctuations and a significant 60-80-year multidecadal variability,apart from a long-term warming trend.The winter EASAT experienced a decreasing trend in the last two decades,which is consistent with the occurrence of extremely cold events in East Asia winters in recent years.The winter NAO leads the detrended winter EASAT by 12-18 years with the greatest significant positive correlation at the lead time of 15 years.Further analysis shows that ENSO may affect winter EASAT interannual variability,but does not affect the robust lead relationship between the winter NAO and EASAT.We present the coupled oceanic-atmospheric bridge(COAB)mechanism of the NAO influences on winter EASAT multidecadal variability through its accumulated delayed effect of~15 years on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)and Africa-Asia multidecadal teleconnection(AAMT)pattern.An NAO-based linear model for predicting winter decadal EASAT is constructed on the principle of the COAB mechanism,with good hindcast performance.The winter EASAT for 2020-34 is predicted to keep on fluctuating downward until~2025,implying a high probability of occurrence of extremely cold events in coming winters in East Asia,followed by a sudden turn towards sharp warming.The predicted 2020/21 winter EASAT is almost the same as the 2019/20 winter.

Recent Decrease in the Difference in Tropical Cyclone Occurrence between the Atlantic and the Western North Pacific

Climatologically,among all ocean basins,the western North Pacific(WNP)has the largest annual number of tropical cyclones(TCs)of around 26 while the Atlantic has around 13,yielding a difference of 13.However,the difference is-7 in 2020,with 30 TCs in the Atlantic and 23 in the WNP,which is the most negative difference within the last 46 years.In fact,during the last 26 years,the difference in TC number is below 10 in ten years,with four years being negative.Such a decreasing difference in TC number can be attributed to the natural multidecadal variation of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation,as well as other external forcings such as anthropogenic aerosol forcing and increased greenhouse gases,with the additional impact from the La Niña condition.This result has significant implications on climate model projections of future TC activity in the two ocean basins.

Influence of Internal Decadal Variability on the Summer Rainfall in Eastern China as Simulated by CCSM4

The combined impact of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation （AMO） on the summer rainfall in eastern China was investigated using CCSM4. The strongest signals occur with the combination of a positive PDO and a negative AMO （＋PDO- AMO）, as well as a negative PDO and a positive AMO （-PDO ＋ AMO）. For the ＋PDO- AMO set, significant positive rainfall anomalies occur over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley （YR）, when the East Asian summer monsoon becomes weaker, while the East Asian westerly jet stream becomes stronger, and ascending motion over the YR becomes enhanced due to the jet-related secondary circulation. Contrary anomalies occur over East Asia for the -PDO ＋ AMO set. The influence of these two combinations of PDO and AMO on the summer rainfall in eastern China can also be observed in the two interdecadal rainfall changes in eastern China in the late 1970s and late 1990s.

Effects of Large-Scale Climatic Oscillations on the Variability of the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

In India,large-scale climatic oscillations have strong influences on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall(ISMR),which plays a crucial role in India’s agricultural production and economic growth.However,there are limited studies in India that explore the influences of decadal and multidecadal oscillations on the ISMR and associated El Niño–Southern Oscillation(ENSO).Therefore,in this study we carried out a comprehensive and detailed investigation to understand the influences of ENSO,Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO),and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation(AMO)on ISMR across different regions in India.The statistical significance of ISMR associated with different phases(positive/warm and negative/cold)of ENSO,PDO,and AMO(individual analysis),and combined ENSO–AMO,and ENSO–PDO(coupled analysis)were analysed by using the nonparametric Wilcoxon Rank Sum(WRS)test.The individual analysis results indicate that in addition to the ENSO teleconnection,AMO and PDO significantly affect the spatial patterns of ISMR.Coupled analysis was performed to understand how the phase shift of PDO and AMO has modulated the rainfall during El Niño and La Niña phases.The results indicate that the La Niña associated with a positive PDO phase caused excessive precipitation of about 21%–150%in the peninsular,west–central,and hilly regions compared to the individual effect of ENSO/PDO/AMO on ISMR;similarly,the west–central,coastal,and northwest regions received 15%–56%of excessive rainfall.Moreover,during the El Niño combined with PDO positive(AMO positive),above-normal precipitation was observed in hilly,northeast,and coastal(hilly,northeast,west–central,and coastal)regions,opposite to the results obtained from the individual ENSO analysis.This study emphasizes the importance of accounting the decadal and multidecadal forcing when examining variations in the ISMR during different phases of ENSO events.

Synergistic Impacts of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans on Interdecadal Variations of Summer Rainfall in Northeast Asia

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the synergistic impacts of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation(AMO)and Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO)on the interdecadal variations of summer rainfall in Northeast Asia.Following the construction of four probable scenarios under various combinations of the AMO and PDO phases,it is found that when the AMO and PDO are out of phase,both of them induce a strong or weak East Asian summer monsoon and a low or high pressure system over Northeast Asia through atmospheric teleconnection,which results in significant wet or dry conditions over the whole of Northeast Asia through the effects of superimposition.In contrast,when the AMO and PDO are in-phase,they induce moderate and regional wet or dry conditions in Northeast Asia,and only a slightly strong or weak East Asian summer monsoon through the effects of cancellation.During the mid-1960 s-1990 s,a period of drought first began in Northeast Asia under a negative AMO and negative PDO in the mid-1960 s,which then increased in severity under a negative AMO and positive PDO in the 1980 s,before finally coming to an end under a positive AMO and negative PDO in the late 1990 s.The interdecadal predictability of summer rainfall in Northeast Asia may reside in the interdecadal behavior of the North Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.

Interdecadal Variability of the East Asian Winter Monsoon and Its Possible Links to Global Climate Change

This paper presents a concise summary of the studies on interdecadal variability of the East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM） from three main perspectives. （1） The EAWM has been significantly affected by global climate change. Winter temperature in China has experienced three stages of variations from the beginning of the 1950s： a cold period （from the beginning of the 1950s to the early or mid 1980s）, a warm period （from the early or mid 1980s to the early 2000s）, and a hiatus period in recent 10 years （starting from 1998）. The strength of the EAWM has also varied in three stages： a stronger winter monsoon period （1950 to 1986/87）, a weaker period （1986/87 to 2004/05）, and a strengthening period （from 2005）. （2） Corresponding to the interdecadal variations of the EAWM, the East Asian atmospheric circulation, winter temperature of China, and the occurrence of cold waves over China have all exhibited coherent interdecadal variability. The upper-level zonal circulation was stronger, the mid-tropospheric trough over East Asia was deeper with stronger downdrafts behind the trough, and the Siberian high was stronger during the cold period than during the warm period. （3） The interdecadal variations of the EAWM seem closely related to major modes of variability in the atmospheric circulation and the Pacific sea surface temperature. When the Northern Hemisphere annular mode/Arctic Oscillation and the Pacific decadal oscillation were in negative （positive） phase, the EAWM was stronger （weaker）, leading to colder （warmer） temperatures in China. In addition, the negative （positive） phase of the Atlantic multi decadal oscillation coincided with relatively cold （warm） temperatures and stronger （weaker） EAWMs. It is thus inferred that the interdecadal variations in the ocean may be one of the most important natural factors influencing long-term variability in the EAWM, although global warming may have also played a significant role in weakening the EAWM.

Interdecadal Variability of Summer Precipitation in Northwest China and Associated Atmospheric Circulation Changes

Daily precipitation data from 149 rain gauge stations in China and NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data during 1961-2018are used to investigate the interdecadal variability of summer precipitation in Northwest China and related causes.The results suggest that,on the interdecadal timescale,Northwest China shifts into a rainy period from the year 1987,with an increase in the precipitation amount and intensity;an increase in the probability of moderate rain,heavy rain,torrential rain,and extremely heavy rain;and a decrease in the probability of light rain.More than 60%of the increase in precipitation can be attributed to rainfall with intensity above the grade of heavy rain.The associated interdecadal variability of atmospheric circulations over midlatitude Eurasia in summer is examined and it is found that the interdecadal variability is mainly characterized by the Silk Road pattern(SRP),with a cyclonic circulation anomaly and an anticyclonic circulation anomaly over central Asia and Mongolia,respectively;enhanced ascending motion and atmospheric instability in Northwest China;and strengthened easterly winds caused by the Mongolian anticyclonic anomaly along the northern boundary of the Tibetan Plateau.On the south side of the Mongolian anticyclone,the water vapor transported from the Pacific and Indian Oceans as well as the South China Sea to Northwest China by easterly winds increases significantly,providing the main water vapor source for the increase in precipitation in Northwest China on the interdecadal timescale.The transition of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation to a positive phase may be the main cause of the interdecadal transition of the SRP to a positive phase,resulting in the interdecadal increase in summer precipitation in Northwest China.

Numerical simulation and cause analysis of persistent summer drought during the 1920s in eastern China

In the late 1920’s,a mega-drought in China resulted in widespread crop failure and famine.Sufficient evidence suggests that this drought belonged to a dry period ranging from approximately 1922 to 1932.To understand the characteristics and the cause of this persistent drought period,we combined various data,including observations,tree ring proxy data,reanalysis data,simulation results of the Fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and numerical downscaling simulations.The results show that during 1922-1932,most regions in eastern China suffered from a persistent drought that lasted for six years,and the maximum negative precipitation anomaly reached−1.5 times the standard deviation.Given its spatial coverage,duration,and strength,the 1920s drought was unique for the 20th century.The 1920s drought was primarily caused by internal variability.Strong easterlies in lower latitudes,strong monsoon circulation,and abnormally high geopotential heights at middle and upper levels were responsible for the 1920s drought conditions in eastern China;these drought conditions could be further attributed to the joint impact of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation,Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Indian Ocean Basin Mode.