Intensified Impact of Northern Tropical Atlantic SST on Tropical Cyclogenesis Frequency over the Western North Pacific after the Late 1980s

Previous studies suggest that spring SST anomalies over the northern tropical Atlantic（NTA） affect the tropical cyclone（TC） activity over the western North Pacific（WNP） in the following summer and fall. The present study reveals that the connection between spring NTA SST and following summer–fall WNP TC genesis frequency is not stationary. The influence of spring NTA SST on following summer–fall WNP TC genesis frequency is weak and insignificant before, but strong and significant after, the late 1980 s. Before the late 1980 s, the NTA SST anomaly-induced SST anomalies in the tropical central Pacific are weak, and the response of atmospheric circulation over the WNP is not strong. As a result, the connection between spring NTA SST and following summer–fall WNP TC genesis frequency is insignificant in the former period. In contrast,after the late 1980 s, NTA SST anomalies induce pronounced tropical central Pacific SST anomalies through an Atlantic–Pacific teleconnection. Tropical central Pacific SST anomalies further induce favorable conditions for WNP TC genesis,including vertical motion, mid-level relative humidity, and vertical zonal wind shear. Hence, the connection between NTA SST and WNP TC genesis frequency is significant in the recent period. Further analysis shows that the interdecadal change in the connection between spring NTA SST and following summer–fall WNP TC genesis frequency may be related to the climatological SST change over the NTA region.

Unprecedented East Asian warming in spring 2018 linked to the North Atlantic tripole SST mode

An unusually warm East Asia in spring 2018,when exceptionally high surface air temperatures were recorded in large areas of Asia,such as northern China,southern China,and Japan,was investigated based on the ERA-Interim reanalysis.The East Asian warming anomalies were primarily attributed to a tripole mode of North Atlantic SST anomalies,which could have triggered anomalous Rossby wave trains over the North Atlantic and Eurasia through modulating the North Atlantic baroclinic instability.Atlantic-forced Rossby waves tend to propagate eastward and induce anomalously high pressure and anticyclonic activity over East Asia,leading to a northward displacement of the Pacific subtropical high.As a result,descending motion,reduced precipitation,and increased surface solar radiation due to less cloud cover appear over East Asia,accompanied by remarkably warm advection from the ocean to southern China,northern China,and Japan.The transportation of anomalously warm advection and the feedbacks between soil moisture and surface temperature were both favorable for the recordbreaking warmth in East Asia during spring 2018.The seasonal‘memory’of the North Atlantic tripole SST mode from the previous winter to the following spring may provide useful implications for the seasonal prediction of East Asian weather and climate.

Impact of the North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Tripole on the East Asian Summer Monsoon

A strong （weak） East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） is usually concurrent with the tripole pattern of North Atlantic SST anomalies on the interannual timescale during summer, which has positive （negative） SST anomalies in the northwestern North Atlantic and negative （positive） SST anomalies in the subpolar and tropical ocean. The mechanisms responsible for this linkage are diagnosed in the present study. It is shown that a barotropie wave-train pattern occurring over the Atlantic-Eurasia region likely acts as a link between the EASM and the SST tripole during summer. This wave-train pattern is concurrent with geopotential height anomalies over the Ural Mountains, which has a substantial effect on the EASM. Diagnosis based on observations and linear dynamical model results reveals that the mechanism for maintaining the wave-train pattern involves both the anomalous diabatic heating and synoptic eddy-vorticity forcing. Since the North Atlantic SST tripole is closely coupled with the North Atlantic Oscillation （NAO）, the relationships between these two factors and the EASM are also examined. It is found that the connection of the EASM with the summer SST tripole is sensitive to the meridional location of the tripole, which is characterized by large seasonal variations due to the north-south movement of the activity centers of the NAO. The SST tripole that has a strong relationship with the EASM appears to be closely coupled with the NAO in the previous spring rather than in the simultaneous summer.

North Atlantic forcing of autumn drought in Southwest China

Drought often lasts long and is thus closely related to slowly varying external forcing such as sea surface temperature(SST).Here,based on observed precipitation and SST data along with NCEP-DOE reanalysis data,the possible impacts of North Atlantic SST on drought formation in Southwest China are investigated.Results show that northeast-southwest-orientated dipole SST anomalies in the mid-high latitudes of the North Atlantic are closely related to autumn drought in Southwest China;the linear correlation coefficient between them reaches 0.48 during 1979-2020,significant at the 0.001 level.The dipole SST anomalies trigger southeastward-propagating Rossby waves and induce barotropic cyclonic circulation anomalies over India and the western Tibetan Plateau.This enhances the upward motion in northern India and the western Tibetan Plateau and causes a compensating downdraft,reduced precipitation,and consequent drought formation in Southwest China.

The Drought of Amazonia in 2023-2024

The Amazon basin has experienced an extreme drought that started in the austral summer of 2022-23 and extends into 2024. This drought started earlier than other previous droughts. Although some rain fell during the austral summer, totals remained below average. Higher temperatures during austral winter and spring 2023, which affected most of Central South America, then aggravated drought conditions. This coincided with an intense El Niño and abnormally warm tropical North Atlantic Ocean temperatures since mid-2023. Decreased rainfall across the Amazon basin, negative anomalies in evapotranspiration (derived from latent heat) and soil moisture indicators, as well as increased temperatures during the dry-to-wet transition season, September-October-November (SON) 2023, combined to delay the onset of the wet season in the hydrological year 2023-24 by nearly two months and caused it to be uncharacteristically weak. SON 2023 registered a precipitation deficit of the order of 50 to 100 mm/month, and temperatures +3˚C higher than usual in Amazonia, leading to reduced evapotranspiration and soil moisture indicators. These processes, in turn, determined an exceptionally late onset and a lengthening of the dry season, affecting the 2023-2024 hydrological year. These changes were aggravated by a heat wave from June to December 2023. Drought-heat compound events and their consequences are the most critical natural threats to society. River levels reached record lows, or dried up completely, affecting Amazonian ecosystems. Increased risk of wildfires is another concern exacerbated by these conditions.

A Cross-Seasonal Linkage between Arctic Sea Ice and Eurasian Summertime Temperature Fluctuations

This study explores the linkage between summertime temperature fluctuations over midlatitude Eurasia and the preceding Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) by utilizing the squared norm of the temperature anomaly, the essential part of local eddy available potential energy, as a metric to quantify the temperature fluctuations with weather patterns on various timescales. By comparing groups of singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis, we suggest a significant linkage between strong (weak) August 10-to-30-day temperature fluctuations over mid-west Asia and enhanced (decreased) Barents-Kara Sea ice in the previous February. We find that when the February SIC increases in the Barents-Kara Sea, a zonal dipolar pattern of SST anomalies appears in the Atlantic subpolar region and lasts from February into the summer months. Evidence suggests that in such a background state, the atmospheric circulation changes evidently from July to August, so that the August is characterized by an amplified meridional circulation over Eurasia, weakened westerlies, and high- pressure anomalies along the Arctic coast. Moreover, the 10-to-30-day wave becomes more active in the North Atlantic-Barents-Kara Sea-Central Asia regions and manifests a more evident southward propagation from the Barents- Kara Sea into the Ural region, which is responsible for the enhanced 10-to-30-day wave activity and temperature fluctuations in the region.

The Relationship between Melt Season Sea Ice over the Bering Sea and Summer Precipitation over Mid-Latitude East Asia

Independent datasets consistently indicate a significant correlation between the sea ice variability in the Bering Sea during melt season and the summer rainfall variability in the Lake Baikal area and Northeastern China.In this study,four sea ice datasets(HadISST1,HadISST2.2,ERA-Interim and NOAA/NSIDC)and two global precipitation datasets(CRU V4.01 and GPCP V2.3)are used to investigate co-variations between melt season(March−April−May−June,MAMJ)Bering Sea ice cover(BSIC)and summer(June−July−August,JJA)East Asian precipitation.All datasets demonstrate a significant correlation between the MAMJ BSIC and the JJA rainfall in Lake Baikal−Northeastern China(Baikal−NEC).Based on the reanalysis datasets and the numerical sensitivity experiments performed in this study using Community Atmospheric Model version 5(CAM5),a mechanism to understand how the MAMJ BSIC influences the JJA Baikal−NEC rainfall is suggested.More MAMJ BSIC triggers a wave train and causes a positive sea level pressure(SLP)anomaly over the North Atlantic during MAMJ.The high SLP anomaly,associated with an anti-cyclonic wind stress circulation anomaly,favors the appearance of sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies in a zonal dipole-pattern in the North Atlantic during summer.The dipole SST anomaly drives a zonally orientated wave train,which causes a high anomaly geopotential height at 500 hPa over the Sea of Japan.As a result,the mean East Asian trough moves westward and a low geopotential height anomaly occurs over Baikal−NEC.This prevailing regional low pressure anomaly together with enhanced moisture transport from the western North Pacific and convergence over Baikal−NEC,positively influences the increased rainfall in summer.

Enhanced correlation between ENSO and western North Pacific monsoon during boreal summer around the 1990s

The correlation between summertime Nino3.4 index and western North Pacific(WNP)summer monsoon index has strikingly enhanced since the early 1990 s,with nonsignificant correlation before the early1990 s but significant correlation afterward.This observed interdecadal change around the 1990 s may be associated with more frequent occurrences of central Pacific(CP)El Nino and the interdecadal changes in ENSO-associated SST anomalies.During the post-1990 s period(the pre-1990 s period),highly noticeable tropical Atlantic(Indian)Ocean SST anomalies tend to co-occur with the summertime Nino3.4 SST anomalies.The concurrent tropical Atlantic(Indian)Ocean SST anomalies could constructively reinforce(destructively mitigate)the WNP monsoon circulation anomalies induced by the summertime Nino3.4 SST,thus boosting(muting)the correlation between summertime Nino3.4 SST and WNP monsoon.In addition,the faster decaying pace of preceding-winter El Nino after the 1990 s,which may have been mainly induced by the influences from the spring tropical North Atlantic SST anomalies,could also have contributed to the enhanced correlation between the summertime Nino3.4 index and WNP monsoon.These results suggest that the enhanced influences from the tropical Atlantic SST may have triggered the intensified correlation between summertime ENSO and WNP monsoon since the early 1990 s.

A dark October in Beijing 2016

In recent years, haze pollution events in Beijing have increased sharply, and the haze pollution of Beijing in October 2016 reached a new high. Meteorological conditions are thought to have influences on the haze occurrence, yet the associated atmospheric circulation of haze in October and why the most severe haze pollution occurred in 2016 is still unclear. Here, the authors show through daily observation and reanalysis data that key regions of North Atlantic and North Pacific sea surface temperature （SST） anomalies may be the main factors for this most severe haze event. Since 2013, the SSTs of these two key regions have increased dramatically and reached a peak, which could have induced the severe haze pollution by affecting the Eurasia teleconnection （EU） and the North Pacific Oscillation, with these factors then providing favorable dynamic and thermodynamic conditions for haze development.

Contributions of tropical-extratropical oceans to the prediction skill of ENSO after 2000

The skill of most ENSO prediction models has declined significantly since 2000.This decline may be due to a weakening of the correlation between tropical predictors and ENSO.Moreover,the effects of extratropical ocean variability on ENSO have increased during this period.To improve ENSO predictability,the authors investigate the influence of the extratropical Atlantic and Pacific oceans on ENSO during the pre-2000 and post-2000 periods,and find that the influence of the northern tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature(NTA SST)on ENSO has significantly increased since 2000.Furthermore,there is a much earlier and stronger correlation between NTA SST and ENSO over the central-eastern Pacific during June-July-August in the post-2000 period compared with the pre-2000 period.The extratropical Pacific SST predictors for ENSO retain an approximate 10-month lead time after 2000.The authors use SST signals in the extratropical Atlantic and Pacific to predict ENSO using a statistical prediction model.This results in a significant improvement in ENSO prediction skill and an obvious decrease in the spring predictability barrier phenomenon of ENSO.These results indicate that extratropical Atlantic and Pacific SSTs can make substantial contributions to ENSO prediction,and can be used to enhance ENSO predictability after 2000.

An Interdecadal Change of Summer Atmospheric Circulation over Asian Mid-High Latitudes and Associated Effects

The atmospheric circulation over the mid-high latitudes in Asia has an important influence on regional climate,yet its long-term variation has not been fully explored.The main task of this study is to reveal the interdecadal variation features of summer atmospheric circulation over Asian mid-high latitudes in recent decades.The results show that the atmospheric circulation over mid-high latitudes of Asia has stronger interdecadal fluctuations than that over low latitudes and one significant change center appears near Lake Baikal.It is found that the atmospheric circulation near Lake Baikal has a significant interdecadal change around 1996 and a deep anomalous anticyclonic circulation has been controlling this region since then,which contributes to the significant increase in the surface temperature near Lake Baikal since 1997 and makes the region a remarkable warming center in Asia in recent 40 years.During 1997-2015,the pattern of less precipitation in the north and more precipitation in the south of east China is closely related to the anomalous anticyclonic circulation near Lake Baikal.Especially,this anomalous circulation near Lake Baikal has been found to contribute to the obvious interdecadal decrease of the precipitation in northeast China and north China near1997.The sea surface temperature(SST)of northwestern Atlantic is an important influence factor to the interdecadal change in the atmospheric circulation near Lake Baikal around 1996.

Solar Wind：A Possible Factor Driving the Interannual Sea Surface Temperature Tripolar Mode over North Atlantic

The effect of solar wind（SW） on the North Atlantic sea surface temperature（SST） in boreal winter is examined through an analysis of observational data during 1964-2013.The North Atlantic SSTs show a pronounced meridional tripolar pattern in response to solar wind speed（SWS） variations.This pattern is broadly similar to the leading empirical orthogonal function（EOF） mode of interannual variations in the wintertime SSTs over North Atlantic.The time series of this leading EOF mode of SST shows a significant interannual period,which is the same as that of wintertime SWS.This response also appears as a compact north-south seesaw of sea level pressure and a vertical tripolar structure of zonal wind,which simultaneously resembles the North Atlantic Oscillation（NAO） in the overlying atmosphere.As compared with the typical low SWS winters,during the typical high SWS winters,the stratospheric polar night jet（PNJ） is evidently enhanced and extends from the stratosphere to the troposphere,even down to the North Atlantic Ocean surface.Notably,the North Atlantic Ocean is an exclusive region in which the SW signal spreads downward from the stratosphere to the troposphere.Thus,it seems that the SW is a possible factor for this North Atlantic SST tripolar mode.The dynamical process of stratosphere-troposphere coupling,together with the global atmospheric electric circuit-cloud microphysical process,probably accounts for the particular downward propagation of the SW signal.

The Enhancement of the East Asian Summer Monsoon over Northeast Asia over the Most Recent Two Decades

The East Asian summer monsoon in Northeast Asia(NEA)has experienced an increase in summer rainfall and a delayed end to the rainy season after 2000,suggesting a trend of enhancement.Based on the data analyses spanning 1979-2022,our results show that the increased rainfall amounts are associated with a more pronounced Mongolian cyclone(MC)in July−August,a manifestation of a portion of the Eurasian barotropic Rossby wave train.Sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies in the North Atlantic(NA)regulate this wave train,with SST increases leading to its amplification.Somewhat independently,a delayed end to the rainy season in September is related to an enhanced anticyclone over the Kuril Islands(ACKI)in the Russian Far East.This anticyclone originates in the Arctic region,possibly induced by the loss of sea ice in the East Siberian Sea,a condition that can be detected two months in advance.The stronger MC and ACKI jointly contribute to the observed enhancement in the East Asian summer monsoon in NEA since 2000 by facilitating ascending motion and moisture transport.Therefore,the SST anomaly in the NA,which is responsible for the intensified rainfall in the rainy season in NEA,coupled with the sea ice conditions in the East Siberian Sea,provides a potential prediction source for the retreat of the rainy season.

Recent Weakening in Interannual Variability of Mean Tropical Cyclogenesis Latitude over the Western North Pacific during Boreal Summer

The intensity of the interannual variability(IIV)of the mean tropical cyclone(TC)genesis latitude over the western North Pacific(WNP)has been weakening significantly since the late 1990 s.It is found that the IIV of the mean TC genesis latitude depends largely on the strength of the out-of-phase relationship between TC genesis numbers in the north(north of 15°N)and south(south of 15°N)of the WNP.A weaker(stronger)north–south TC see-saw has led to a smaller(larger)IIV of the mean TC genesis latitude after(before)the late 1990 s.Different configurations of sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies are found to be responsible for the decadal changes in the north–south TC see-saw and dipole structure.Before the late 1990 s,the joint effect of SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific and tropical North Indian Ocean dominated,rendering the obvious north–south TC see-saw and larger IIV of the mean TC genesis latitude.After the late 1990 s,however,the dominant SST anomalies associated with TC genesis shift to the tropical central Pacific(CP)and tropical North Atlantic Ocean,which have weakened the north–south TC seesaw and reduced the IIV of the mean TC genesis latitude.These observed decadal changes in the configuration of SST anomalies are considered to be closely associated with the shift of the El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)from eastern Pacific(EP)type to the CP type during the recent decades.The results suggest that the increased influences from the tropical Atlantic Ocean have become more important to the variations of TC activity in the WNP during the recent decades.These results may have important implications for assessing the latitudinal distributions of TC-induced hazards.