Comparison of Crop Model Validation Methods

In this paper, the many indices used in validation of crop models, such as RMSE （root mean square errors）, Sd （standard error of absolute difference）, da （mean absolute difference）, dap （ratio of da to the mean observation）, r （correlation）, and R2 （determination coefficient）, are compared for the same rice architectural parameter model, and their advantages and disadvantages are analyzed. A new index for validation of crop models, dap between the observed and the simulated values, is proposed, with dap〈5% as the suggested standard for precision of crop models. The different kinds of validation methods in crop models should be combined in the following aspects：（1） calculating da and dap; （2） calculating the RMSE or Sd; （3） calculating r and R2, at the same time, plotting 1：1 diagram.

An Environmental Risk Evaluation Method Employing Atmospheric Dispersion Models and GIS

This study aims to develop a method for evaluating the environmental risk of harmful chemical substances released from specific sources, using two atmospheric dispersion models and GIS (Geographic Information Systems). In the first stage of evaluation, ADMER was used to conduct a wide-area evaluation which covered the entire area of the evaluation target region. In the second stage, METI-LIS was used to conduct a detailed limited-area evaluation which targeted the vicinity of sources. In this study, incinerators were selected as sources and dioxins were selected as harmful chemical substances. The area selected for evaluation was the Tokyo Metropolis in Japan, and the evaluation method proposed in this study was used to evaluate environmental risk. Through the use of atmospheric dispersion models and GIS, the behavior of dioxins emitted into the atmosphere from incinerators was estimated. By superimposing atmospheric levels and population data, the amounts of dioxins that humans exposed to were found. Additionally, by superimposing deposition amounts and land use data, the amounts of dioxins accumulated in each land environment were found. Conducting these steps enabled the impact of dioxins on humans and the environment to be grasped quantitatively and visually, and the risk that dioxins emitted from incinerators pose to the environment to be evaluated.

Study on Conventional Atmospheric Dispersion Models in China,America and Canada

The conventional atmospheric dispersion models used in China (CRADM), America (HPDM) and Canada (AMS) are investigated. The main differences between the three models are described, and the various aspects of CRADM, HPDM and AMS for same input are compared and discussed. Some problems in application of atmospheric dispersion models to environmental impact assessment are analyzed and suggestions for rivision are proposed. Results show that the Briggs plume rise formula in neutral condition overestimates the real rise due to the fact that the accumulative effect of ambient turbulence on plume is not considered in his model.

Modeling the Dispersion and Atmospheric Mitigation of Pollutants in the Dibamba-Douala Thermal Power Plant

This work simulates the dispersion and atmospheric attenuation of pollutants from the Dibamba-Douala thermal power plant. The objective of this research is to study the dispersion of air pollutants and mitigate the impact of pollutants on the populations living around the power plant. The methodology used is as follows: the Gaussian model is used for the representation of the dispersion in the form of a plume, the finite difference method for digital resolution. Finally, dispersion charts are constructed which allow the heights of the chimneys to be fixed for which the concentrations of pollutants discharged comply with ambient air quality standards. The results obtained using the simulation made in the MATLAB software version 2016 show that, for a wind regime of 1.5 m/s;we have a predicted distance of 150 m at which the concentration is canceled out. Then, for the wind speed of 2 m/s;we had a predicted distance of 125 m and finally for a wind speed of 2.5 m/s;we observed the 120 m distance at which the concentration is canceled. In addition, for the same wind regimes, the attenuation of pollutants at ground level is obtained for a height of 60 m.

Simplified Atmospheric Dispersion Model andModel Based Real Field Estimation System ofAir Pollution

The atmospheric dispersion model has been well developed and applied in pollution emergency and prediction. Based on thesophisticated air diffusion model, this paper proposes a simplified model and some optimization about meteorological andgeological conditions. The model is suitable for what is proposed as Real Field Monitor and Estimation system. The principle ofsimplified diffusion model and its optimization is studied. The design of Real Field Monitor system based on this model and itsfundamental implementations are introduced.

Direct Pointwise Comparison of FE Predictions to StereoDIC Measurements:Developments and Validation Using Double Edge-Notched Tensile Specimen

To compare finite element analysis(FEA)predictions and stereovision digital image correlation(StereoDIC)strain measurements at the same spatial positions throughout a region of interest,a field comparison procedure is developed.The procedure includes(a)conversion of the finite element data into a triangular mesh,(b)selection of a common coordinate system,(c)determination of the rigid body transformation to place both measurements and FEA data in the same system and(d)interpolation of the FEA nodal information to the same spatial locations as the StereoDIC measurements using barycentric coordinates.For an aluminum Al-6061 double edge notched tensile specimen,FEA results are obtained using both the von Mises isotropic yield criterion and Hill’s quadratic anisotropic yield criterion,with the unknown Hill model parameters determined using full-field specimen strain measurements for the nominally plane stress specimen.Using Hill’s quadratic anisotropic yield criterion,the point-by-point comparison of experimentally based full-field strains and stresses to finite element predictions are shown to be in excellent agreement,confirming the effectiveness of the field comparison process.

Performance of a Reconfigured Atmospheric General Circulation Model at Low Resolution

Paleoclimate simulations usually require model runs over a very long time. The fast integration version of a state-of-the-art general circulation model （GCM）, which shares the same physical and dynamical processes but with reduced horizontal resolution and increased time step, is usually developed. In this study, we configure a fast version of an atmospheric GCM （AGCM）, the Grid Atmospheric Model of IAP/LASG （Institute of Atmospheric Physics/State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics）, at low resolution （GAMIL-L, hereafter）, and compare the simulation results with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and other data to examine its performance. GAMIL-L, which is derived from the original GAMIL, is a finite difference AGCM with 72 × 40 grids in longitude and latitude and 26 vertical levels. To validate the simulated climatology and variability, two runs were achieved. One was a 60-year control run with fixed climatological monthly sea surface temperature （SST） forcing, and the other was a 50-yr （1950-2000） integration with observational time-varying monthly SST forcing. Comparisons between these two cases and the reanalysis, including intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability are also presented. In addition, the differences between GAMIL-L and the original version of GAMIL are also investigated.The results show that GAMIL-L can capture most of the large-scale dynamical features of the atmosphere, especially in the tropics and mid latitudes, although a few deficiencies exist, such as the underestimated Hadley cell and thereby the weak strength of the Asia summer monsoon. However, the simulated mean states over high latitudes, especially over the polar regions, are not acceptable. Apart from dynamics, the thermodynamic features mainly depend upon the physical parameterization schemes. Since the physical package of GAMIL-L is exactly the same as the original high-resolution version of GAMIL, in which the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model （CAM2） physical package was used, there are only small differences between them in the precipitation and temperature fields. Because our goal is to develop a fast-running AGCM and employ it in the coupled climate system model of IAP/LASG for paleoclimate studies such as ENSO and Australia-Asia monsoon, particular attention has been paid to the model performances in the tropics. More model validations, such as those ran for the Southern Oscillation and South Asia monsoon, indicate that GAMIL-L is reasonably competent and valuable in this regard.

Random walk modeling of wake dispersion for the exhaust tower of an underground tunnel in urban area

In this paper, some experimental studies on the impact of effluent from an exhaust tower of an underground tunnel with special construction are reported. By measuring the flow field downstream of the tower in NJU meteorological wind tunnel, some flow characteristics in the make area were established. Based on these, an advanced random\|walk dispersion model was set up and applied successfully to the simulation of dispersion in the wake area. The modelling results were in accordance with wind tunnel measurements. The computed maximum of ground surface concentration in the building case was a factor of 3-4 higher than that in the flat case and appeared much closer to the source. The simulation indicated that random walk modelling is an effective and practical tool for the wake stream impact assessment.

Review of Air Dispersion Modelling Approaches to Assess the Risk of Wind-Borne Spread of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is one of the most economically serious veterinary pathogens due to its negative effects on livestock and its highly infectious nature via a variety of transmission paths through oral and inhalation routes. Measures to enhance outbreak management can be designed according to analytical results predicted by mathematical models for wind-borne dispersion, an important path of virus transmission. Accurate atmospheric dispersion models are useful tools for properly determining risk management plans, while inaccurate models may conversely lead to accidental loss in two possible ways. Overly strict measures, e.g., slaughter for too wide an area, can cause severe economic difficulties, including irreversible loss of business operations for a number of farms. On the contrary, inestimable loss potentially caused by lax controls is a persistent threat. In this paper, available modelling procedures for forecasting the spread of FMDV, which have been used since the 1970s, each having its advantages and limitations, are reviewed for the purpose of ensuring suitable application in various conditions of any future emergency cases.

The comparison of ensemble or deterministic dispersion modeling on global dispersion during Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident

Ensemble forcasting,originally developed for weather prediction,is lately being extended to atmospheric dispersion applications,which is a new,effective methodology for improving the atmospheric dispersion numerical modeling.In March 2011,due to the massive 9.0 earthquakes and ensuing tsunami that struck off the northern coast of the island of Honshu,the Fukushima Nuclear Plant I had the substantial leak of radioactive materials into surrounding environment and atmosphere.To aim at the global dispersion modeling of atmospheric radionuclides from Fukushima Nuclear Accident,this paper presents two approaches of atmospheric dispersion forecasting:ensemble dispersion modeling(EDM) and deterministic dispersion modeling(DDM),conducts the globally dispersion modeling cases for Fukushima nuclear accident,and analyzes and evaluates the simulation results using observation data.In this paper,EDM includes three different perturbation methods:meteorological perturbation method,turbulence perturbation method,and physical parameterization ensemble forecasting method.The simulation results show that the trajectories from EDM have a better performance,which is in better agreement with the atmospheric circulation and observation data; the spread from DDM is slower and not as far as EDM.Additionally,the results from EDM display a better performance in the modeling of transport from Japan to China East Sea on April 4.The reasons for these results are:the techniques of MET and TUR are performed by adding perturbations on mean wind and turbulent velocity,respectively; the various different flow fields will result in far spreading in horizontal and the simulation results closer to observation; PHY is performed by using different diffusion physical parameterizations and produces the perturbations on vertical wind,which results the spreading in smaller range and discontinuous in horizontal.Finally,the comparative analysis between modeling results and observation data shows that all cases results are in good agreement with trends of observed radionuclides surface concentration; however,the modeling surface concentration is smaller than observation,especially in DDM and PHY.Furthermore,the EDM results show that MET and TUR are of more evolutionary advantage than PHY in modeling of average and maximum concentration.Therefore,this study can serve as a reference to atmospheric dispersion and environmental emergency response(EER).

基于无人机多光谱实测数据的草地生物量反演模型比较

应用无人机近地面遥感技术估算草地生物量是目前较热门的方法,但构建的反演模型类型、变量、算法差异较大。通过在内蒙古锡林郭勒获取的无人机多光谱影像提取出波段反射率、植被指数等变量,与实际获取的地面样方调查数据结合,构建并对比了8种最常用的参数与非参数方法构建的草地地上生物量预测模型,评估不同模型的精度和建模变量,以期能够优化得到最佳预测模型。研究结果表明8种模型中参数模型精度相对较低,非参数模型具有更高精度;参数模型中多变量的广义线性模型优于线性、对数和指数这3个参数模型;非参数模型中K近邻、支持向量机、极端梯度提升和随机森林4种模型的决定系数R^(2)都大于0.7,但随机森林模型相对更稳健,且模型变量数最少。建模变量中归一化植被指数和红波段反射率变量对生物量估算作用较大。综上,随机森林模型是较适用于内蒙古锡林郭勒地区草原无人机近地面遥感技术估算草地生物量的模型,然而在超参数调整、算法优化,以及植被多源变量筛选等方面还需要更深入的研究。

JRODOS模拟核事故时核素扩散及剂量时空分布

核事故时核素扩散范围和造成的辐射剂量是核电厂事故应急措施制定的重要参考,利用JRODOS软件模拟了不同气象源和大气扩散模型对核电厂核素浓度和辐射剂量时空分布的影响。结果表明:WRF气象场情景下核素的扩散范围广,FNL气象场情景下核素浓度和有效剂量区域均值较高。不同大气扩散模型中LASAT模型模拟的有效剂量最高。这为核事故后果评价数据来源和大气扩散模型选择提供了依据。

小保当煤矿地质建模空间插值方法对比

三维地质建模促进了煤矿智能化发展,在煤炭行业的应用非常广泛且具有极其重要的意义。三维地质建模中插值方法对建模结果的准确性尤为重要,利用地面钻孔数据信息,分别采用反距离加权、最小曲率、径向基函数插值和简单克里金4种方法对各层面海拔高程进行空间插值,进行交叉验证,以MAE、MRE和RMSE评估插值精度,确定煤矿建模中最优插值方法。结果表明:M1、M3和M4煤层界面最优插值方法为简单克里金,M2煤层界面插值方法简单克里金与最小曲率法结果表现相当,MRE检验指标表明,简单克里金插值精度为M4>M3>M2>M1,M3和M4煤层结果MRE分别为0.013%和0.014%,M2和M1结果MRE分别为0.183%和0.274%,M3和M4煤层界面插值精度显著优于M2和M1界面。

The Investigation of Atmospheric Angular Momentum as a Contributor to Polar Wobble and Length of Day Change with AMIP II GCM Data

The atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) functions in terms of contribution to polar wobble and length of day change, are calculated from the output data of GSM9603 global circulation model (GCM) of Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), from the reanalysis data of the National Centers for the Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and from the operational objective analysis data of JMA, respectively. The comparison shows that during the period from 1985 to 1995, the values of the pressure terms in the equatorial components of AAM functions calculated from three data sets agree with each other better along 90°E longitude than along Greenwich meridian direction. The axial component of relative AAM function estimated from GSM 9603 agrees well with those from the other two data sets in terms of seasonal variations with the moderate amplitudes, but not so well with the composite axial component of relative AAM functions estimated from 23 GCM models anticipating in the first phase of AMIP. In addition, its interannual variation from 1979 to 1996 shows the main characteristics of ENSO evolution, just as does the axial component of relative AAM function estimated from NCEP reanalysis data except for the period of anomalous ENSO from 1991 to 1993.

Cloud Water Resource in North China in 2017 Simulated by the CMA-CPEFS Cloud Resolving Model:Validation and Quantification

Based on the concept of cloud water resource(CWR)and the cloud microphysical scheme developed by the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(CAMS),a coupled mesoscale and cloud-resolving model system is developed in the study for CWR numerical quantification(CWR-NQ)in North China for 2017.The results show that(1)the model system is stable and capable for performing 1-yr continuous simulation with a water budget error of less than 0.2%,which indicates a good water balance.(2)Compared with the observational data,it is confirmed that the simulating capability of the CWR-NQ approach is decent for the spatial distribution of yearly cumulative precipitation,daily precipitation intensity,yearly average spatial distribution of water vapor.(3)Compared with the CWR diagnostic quantification(CWR-DQ),the results from the CWR-NQ differ mainly in cloud condensation and cloud evaporation.However,the deviation of the net condensation(condensation minus evaporation)between the two methods is less than 1%.For other composition variables,such as water vapor advection,surface evaporation,precipitation,cloud condensation,and total atmospheric water substances,the relative differences between the CWR-NQ and the CWR-DQ are less than 5%.(4)The spatiotemporal features of the CWR in North China are also studied.The positive correlation between water vapor convergence and precipitation on monthly and seasonal scales,and the lag of precipitation relative to water vapor convergence on hourly and daily scales are analyzed in detail,indicating the significance of the state term on hourly and daily scales.The effects of different spatial scales on the state term,advection term,source-sink term,and total amount are analyzed.It is shown that the advective term varies greatly at different spatiotemporal scales,which leads to differences at different spatiotemporal scales in CWR and related characteristic quantities.

基于HMSC模型分析山东近海夏季底层鱼类的环境适应性与种间关系

传统的物种分布模型很少将种间关系纳入建模框架中,妨碍了对物种栖息分布的准确预测。近年来联合物种分布模型(JSDMs)越来越受到关注,但在海洋领域实际应用仍较为缺乏。本研究根据2017年夏季山东近海底拖网调查数据,结合水深、底层水温和底层盐度等环境数据,采用物种群落层次模型(HMSC)方法研究了山东近海17种底层鱼类与环境因素之间的关系和种间相关性。本研究根据生物与环境之间的线性或非线性关系以及随机效应构建了5种HMSC,并利用广泛适用信息准则(WAIC)等指标以及交叉验证方法,评价了模型拟合程度和预测效果。结果表明,最优模型为包含随机效应的非线性模型(模型五),非线性模型优于线性模型,且在模型中考虑种间关系能明显地提高模型的拟合效果。温度是影响山东近海底层鱼类分布的主要因素,占平均可解释方差的51.4%,其次是水深和随机效应,分别占35.7%和12.8%。山东近海大部分底层鱼类与水深存在显著线性正相关关系,而与水温存在显著的非线性关系。底层鱼类种间具有显著相关性,按其相关性的正负可大致分为3组,表明种间关系在预测物种分布方面的作用不容忽视。本研究建议,在建模中应同时考虑非生物因素和生物之间的相互关系,研究结果为预测渔业资源栖息分布提供了重要参考。

Spatial distribution,patterns and source contributions of POPs in the atmosphere of Great Mendoza using the WRF/CALMET/CALPUFF modelling system

Global monitoring of Persistent Organic Pollutants(POPs)has allowed the knowledge of levels and distribution around the world as well as the understanding of its transport through the atmosphere.However,there are still some gaps in this regard,especially in some locations,as the case of Great Mendoza,a medium-sized urban area located in the center-west of Argentina.In this work,the WRF/CALMET/CALPUFF modeling system was used to estimate airborne levels of four families of POPs(PCBs,PBDEs,DDTs and HCB)in the study area.The model was validated from measured data obtained from eleven sites using passive air samplers with polyurethane foam disks(PUFs),subsequently analyzed by GC-ECNI/MS.Considering both sets of data,measured and simulated airborne concentrations,five statistical performance metrics were calculated for each family of POP[Mean bias error,(MBE),Fractional Bias(FB),Normalized Mean Square Error(NMSE),Factor of two(Fa2)and Pearson correlation coefficient(r)].Results exhibited a good agreement between modeled and measured data,showing that WRF/CALMET/CALPUFF modeling system predicts POPs airborne concentrations with reasonable accuracy at a local scale.Model output was used to examine the relative source contribution to ground-level concentrations and to assess the spatial variability of the studied POPs in the study area.Source apportionment showed the prevalence of emissions from open burning of municipal solid waste(ranging from 9%to 90%)on the simulated atmospheric concentrations.HCB presented the lowest mean contribution from this activity(37%)but the highest variability(SD=20%),followed by PCBs(69±9%),and PBDEs(84±4%).The spatial pattern obtained from simulations exhibited that both,lowest and highest levels predicted by the model,occurred in areas where no samples were taken,suggesting that the real gradient in the POPs air concentrations would be much greater than those reflected by measured data.This work highlights the usefulness of the implementation of an atmospheric dispersion model,not only in the study of air quality and exposure levels but also as a tool for the proper design of monitoring networks,taking into account the time and cost that sampling campaigns take,and the conclusions that are intended to be made from the analysis of the obtained data.

建筑环境设计模拟分析软件DeST 第3讲 建筑热环境动态模拟结果的验证

首先介绍了建筑热环境模拟软件容易出现问题的三个方面以及针对这三方面的问题所发展出的验证方法 :理论验证、程序间对比验证及实验验证。在此基础上 ,详细介绍了DeST所进行的这三种验证的验证特点、验证方法及验证结果。通过上述验证 。

大气折射率高度分布模式及其应用

光束通过大气时,由于大气密度的不均匀性使光束发生偏折,光传播的程长增加及其轨迹产生弯曲,由此造成待测目标的角位置和距离的测量误差。分析了近几年新疆戈壁地区大气参数探空数据的主要结果,给出了大气参数的平均高度分布廓线,依据光波波段的折射率公式,利用以上结果计算了该地区折射率高度分布数据,通过模式拟合给出了该地区大气折射率指数分布模式和三参数伽马分布模式。详细分析了大气压强、温度、波长等因素单独对大气折射率的影响。应用该地区的大气折射率高度分布模式对光传输的大气折射效应进行了理论分析,给出了整层激光传输的折射角、蒙气差和大气色散。以期对该地区光传输折射效应进行修正。

AERMOD模式系统理论

作为新一代法规性质的稳态大气扩散模式,AERMOD将最新的大气边界层和大气扩散理论应用到空气污染扩散模式中。AERMOD具有下述特点:(1)按空气湍流结构和尺度的概念,湍流扩散由参数化方程给出,稳定度用连续参数表示;(2)中等浮力通量对流条件采用非正态的PDF模式;(3)考虑了对流条件下浮力烟羽和混合层顶的相互作用;(4)AERMOD模式系统可以处理:地面源和高架源、平坦和复杂地形和城市边界层;(5)AERMAP提出了一个有效高度对流场的影响。示踪试验表明,AERMOD模拟的结果比较理想。