A Study of Wind Statistics Through Auto-Regressive and Moving-Average (ARMA) Modeling

Statistical properties of winds near the Taichung Harbour are investigated. The 26 years'incomplete data of wind speeds, measured on an hourly basis, are used as reference. The possibility of imputation using simulated results of the Auto-Regressive (AR), Moving-Average (MA), and/ or Auto-Regressive and Moving-Average (ARMA) models is studied. Predictions of the 25-year extreme wind speeds based upon the augmented data are compared with the original series. Based upon the results, predictions of the 50- and 100-year extreme wind speeds are then made.

Application of Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average Model in Forecasting the Incidence of Hand-foot-mouth Disease in Wuhan,China

Outbreaks of hand-foot-mouth disease（HFMD） have occurred many times and caused serious health burden in China since 2008. Application of modern information technology to prediction and early response can be helpful for efficient HFMD prevention and control. A seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average（ARIMA） model for time series analysis was designed in this study. Eighty-four-month（from January 2009 to December 2015） retrospective data obtained from the Chinese Information System for Disease Prevention and Control were subjected to ARIMA modeling. The coefficient of determination（R^2）, normalized Bayesian Information Criterion（BIC） and Q-test P value were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of constructed models. Subsequently, the best-fitted ARIMA model was applied to predict the expected incidence of HFMD from January 2016 to December 2016. The best-fitted seasonal ARIMA model was identified as（1,0,1）（0,1,1）12, with the largest coefficient of determination（R^2=0.743） and lowest normalized BIC（BIC=3.645） value. The residuals of the model also showed non-significant autocorrelations（P_（Box-Ljung（Q））=0.299）. The predictions by the optimum ARIMA model adequately captured the pattern in the data and exhibited two peaks of activity over the forecast interval, including a major peak during April to June, and again a light peak for September to November. The ARIMA model proposed in this study can forecast HFMD incidence trend effectively, which could provide useful support for future HFMD prevention and control in the study area. Besides, further observations should be added continually into the modeling data set, and parameters of the models should be adjusted accordingly.

CONSTRUCTION OF POLYNOMIAL MATRIX USING BLOCK COEFFICIENT MATRIX REPRESENTATION AUTO-REGRESSIVE MOVING AVERAGE MODEL FOR ACTIVELY CONTROLLED STRUCTURES

The polynomial matrix using the block coefficient matrix representation auto-regressive moving average(referred to as the PM-ARMA)model is constructed in this paper for actively controlled multi-degree-of-freedom(MDOF)structures with time-delay through equivalently transforming the preliminary state space realization into the new state space realization.The PM-ARMA model is a more general formulation with respect to the polynomial using the coefficient representation auto-regressive moving average(ARMA)model due to its capability to cope with actively controlled structures with any given structural degrees of freedom and any chosen number of sensors and actuators.(The sensors and actuators are required to maintain the identical number.)under any dimensional stationary stochastic excitation.

基于MOVES模型的污染物排放相关性分析

道路机动车排放是大气污染物的重要来源,同时也是量化评价最困难的污染源之一。目前,国内主要利用MOVES模型进行道路机动车排放预测,但在参数本地化时进行地理区域选择方面缺少深入分析,基于太原实际的道路交通流信息,共选取8个相近地理区域,模拟得出机动车CO,CH_(4),NO_(x),PM_(2.5)污染物排放量,并运用SPSS进行污染物排放量与所选地理区域纬度和海拔相关性分析。结果显示:在纬度确定的情况下,海拔和污染物排放量不存在显著相关;在海拔确定的情况下,纬度和污染物CH 4,NO_(x),PM_(2.5)排放量不存在显著相关性,但与CO排放量存在显著相关性。

Optimal zero-crossing group selection method of the absolute gravimeter based on improved auto-regressive moving average model

An absolute gravimeter is a precision instrument for measuring gravitational acceleration, which plays an important role in earthquake monitoring, crustal deformation, national defense construction, etc. The frequency of laser interference fringes of an absolute gravimeter gradually increases with the fall time. Data are sparse in the early stage and dense in the late stage. The fitting accuracy of gravitational acceleration will be affected by least-squares fitting according to the fixed number of zero-crossing groups. In response to this problem, a method based on Fourier series fitting is proposed in this paper to calculate the zero-crossing point. The whole falling process is divided into five frequency bands using the Hilbert transformation. The multiplicative auto-regressive moving average model is then trained according to the number of optimal zero-crossing groups obtained by the honey badger algorithm. Through this model, the number of optimal zero-crossing groups determined in each segment is predicted by the least-squares fitting. The mean value of gravitational acceleration in each segment is then obtained. The method can improve the accuracy of gravitational measurement by more than 25% compared to the fixed zero-crossing groups method. It provides a new way to improve the measuring accuracy of an absolute gravimeter.

Auto-regressive模型在全国婴儿死亡率拟合中的应用

目的分析我国1991～2007年的婴儿死亡率的变化规律,探讨Auto-regressive模型在非平稳时间序列数据拟合中的适用性和有效性。方法对我国婴儿死亡率数据序列的平稳性和纯随机性进行预处理,然后利用SAS程序拟合Auto-regressive模型,并根据决定系数R2评价其拟合效果。结果我国婴儿死亡率为非平稳时间序列,总体呈现随时间线性递减的长期趋势,同时又包含一定的随机信息,采用Auto-regressive模型拟合效果较好。结论 Auto-regressive模型可以用来拟合我国婴儿死亡率的数据,并可以推广应用到卫生领域中其他具有非平稳时间序列特征的数据,为相关卫生管理部门制定策略措施提供科学的理论依据。

基于(残差)Auto-Regressive模型利用MATLAB解决经济非平稳时间序列的预测分析

利用(残差)Auto—Regressive模型对我国1978年—2005年的GDP进行建模与预测,显示出该拟合模型优于ARIMA模型,并运行MATLAB软件,实现了建模仿真的全过程,显示了MATLAB的强大科学计算与可视化功能.

基于Auto-Regressive的河北省旅游接待人数预测研究

旅游人数是发展旅游业的重要指标,对河北省未来接待旅游人数的预测一直受到河北省旅游局的重视。本文通过以1990年~2019年河北省旅游数据为依托,首先,从市场、景区、政策三个方面分析了河北省旅游业现状,然后进行了河北省历年来旅游接待人数数据的平稳性和白噪声检验,分别运用非平稳时间序列的两种残差自回归模型方法(因变量关于时间的回归模型和延迟因变量回归模型)对以往河北省旅游接待人数建立模型。研究结果发现,前者模型拟合效果较好,并对未来旅游人数进行短期预测。最后为促进河北省旅游业的发展提出了一些相关建议。

Parametric SNR Estimation Based on Auto-Regressive Model in AWGN Channels

Signal-to-noise ratio（SNR）estimation for signal which can be modeled by Auto-regressive（AR）process is studied in this paper.First,the conventional frequency domain method is introduced to estimate the SNR for the received signal in additive white Gauss noise（AWGN）channel.Then a parametric SNR estimation algorithm is proposed by taking advantage of the AR model information of the received signal.The simulation results show that the proposed parametric method has better performance than the conventional frequency doma in method in case of AWGN channel.

MOVES模型在城市交通碳减排评估中的应用

为准确评估城市道路交叉口信号优化的碳减排效果,在实际交通调查的基础上利用MOVES模型模拟信号优化后道路车辆污染物排放的变化,对交通管控的节能减排效应进行定量分析。结果表明:信号优化不仅能有效缓解交通拥堵,提高主干道交通流的速度,还能够不同程度降低不同污染物的排放总量,尤其是CO_(2)的排放量;虽然信号优化后不同污染物排放总量都在降低,但对于道路行驶的基数较小的车型,其污染物排放趋势有可能增加;不同污染物对信号优化的敏感性不同,因此减排效果不同,但相同车型的不同污染物的减排趋势相似。通过详细分析模型参数的本地化过程和排放结果,所研究的污染物排放测算方法更符合实际情况,可以为其他城市交通管控的减排效益研究提供参考,为城市的低碳绿色发展提供理论基础。

Numerical analysis of moving train induced vibrations on tunnel,surrounding ground and structure

This study is focused on the effect of vibration induced by moving trains in tunnels on the surrounding ground and structures.A three-dimensional finite element model is established for a one-track railway tunnel and an adjacent twelve-storey building frame by using commercial software Midas GTS-NX(2019)and Midas Gen.This study considered the moving load effect of a complete train,which varies with space as well as with time.The effect of factors such as train speed,overburden pressure on the tunnel and variation in soil properties are studied in the time domain.As a result,the variations in horizontal and vertical acceleration for two different sites,i.e.,the free ground surface(without structure)and the area containing the structure,are compared.Also,the displacement pattern of the raft foundation is plotted for different train velocities.At lower speeds,the heaving phenomenon is negligible,but as the speed increases,both the heaving and differential settlement increase in the foundation.This study demonstrates that the effect of moving train vibrations should be considered in the design of new nearby structures and proper ground improvement should be considered for existing structures.

Semi-analytical investigation of heat transfer in a porous convective radiative moving longitudinal fin exposed to magnetic field in the presence of a shape-dependent trihybrid nanofluid

The thermal examination of a non-integer-ordered mobile fin with a magnetism in the presence of a trihybrid nanofluid(Fe_3O_4-Au-Zn-blood) is carried out. Three types of nanoparticles, each having a different shape, are considered. These shapes include spherical(Fe_3O_4), cylindrical(Au), and platelet(Zn) configurations. The combination approach is utilized to evaluate the physical and thermal characteristics of the trihybrid and hybrid nanofluids, excluding the thermal conductivity and dynamic viscosity. These two properties are inferred by means of the interpolation method based on the volume fraction of nanoparticles. The governing equation is transformed into a dimensionless form, and the Adomian decomposition Sumudu transform method(ADSTM) is adopted to solve the conundrum of a moving fin immersed in a trihybrid nanofluid. The obtained results agree well with those numerical simulation results, indicating that this research is reliable. The influence of diverse factors on the thermal overview for varying noninteger values of γ is analyzed and presented in graphical representations. Furthermore, the fluctuations in the heat transfer concerning the pertinent parameters are studied. The results show that the heat flux in the presence of the combination of spherical, cylindrical, and platelet nanoparticles is higher than that in the presence of the combination of only spherical and cylindrical nanoparticles. The temperature at the fin tip increases by 0.705 759% when the value of the Peclet number increases by 400%, while decreases by 11.825 13% when the value of the Hartman number increases by 400%.

Application of Auto-regressive Linear Model in Understanding the Effect of Climate on Malaria Vectors Dynamics in the Three Gorges Reservoir

It is important to understand the dynamics of malaria vectors in implementing malaria control strategies. Six villages were selected from different sections in the Three Gorges Reservoir fc,r exploring the relationship between the climatic ｜：actors and its malaria vector density from 1997 to 2007 using the auto-regressive linear model regressi^n method. The result indicated that both temperature and precipitation were better modeled as quadratic rather than linearly related to the density of Anopheles sinensis.

Numerical analysis of geosynthetic-reinforced embankment performance under moving loads

The performance of geosynthetic-reinforced embankments under traffic moving loads is always a hotspot in the geotechnical engineering field.A three-dimensional(3D)model of a geosynthetic-reinforced embankment without drainage consolidation was established using the finite element software ABAQUS.In this model,the traffic loads were simulated by two moving loads of rectangular pattern,and their amplitude,range,and moving speed were realized by a Fortran subroutine.The embankment fill was simulated by an equivalent linear viscoelastic model,which can reflect its viscoelasticity.The geogrid was simulated by the truss element,and the geocell was simulated by the membrane element.Infinite elements were utilized to weaken the boundary effect caused by the model geometry at the boundaries.Validation of the established numerical model was conducted by comparing the predicted deformations in the cross-section of the geosynthetic-reinforced embankment with those from the existing literature.On this basis,the dynamic stress and strain distribution in the pavement structure layer of the geosynthetic-reinforced embankment under a moving load was also analyzed.Finally,a parametric study was conducted to examine the influences of the different types of reinforcement,overload,and the moving load velocity on the geosynthetic-reinforced embankment.

Efficient 2-D MUSIC algorithm for super-resolution moving target tracking based on an FMCW radar

Frequency modulated continuous wave(FMCW)radar is an advantageous sensor scheme for target estimation and environmental perception.However,existing algorithms based on discrete Fourier transform(DFT),multiple signal classification(MUSIC)and compressed sensing,etc.,cannot achieve both low complexity and high resolution simultaneously.This paper proposes an efficient 2-D MUSIC algorithm for super-resolution target estimation/tracking based on FMCW radar.Firstly,we enhance the efficiency of 2-D MUSIC azimuth-range spectrum estimation by incorporating 2-D DFT and multi-level resolution searching strategy.Secondly,we apply the gradient descent method to tightly integrate the spatial continuity of object motion into spectrum estimation when processing multi-epoch radar data,which improves the efficiency of continuous target tracking.These two approaches have improved the algorithm efficiency by nearly 2-4 orders of magnitude without losing accuracy and resolution.Simulation experiments are conducted to validate the effectiveness of the algorithm in both single-epoch estimation and multi-epoch tracking scenarios.

Random vibration analysis of FGM plates subjected to moving load using a refined stochastic finite element method

The article introduces a finite element procedure using the bilinear quadrilateral element or four-node rectangular element(namely Q4 element) based on a refined first-order shear deformation theory(rFSDT) and Monte Carlo simulation(MCS), so-called refined stochastic finite element method to investigate the random vibration of functionally graded material(FGM) plates subjected to the moving load.The advantage of the proposed method is to use r-FSDT to improve the accuracy of classical FSDT, satisfy the stress-free condition at the plate boundaries, and combine with MCS to analyze the vibration of the FGM plate when the parameter inputs are random quantities following a normal distribution. The obtained results show that the distribution characteristics of the vibration response of the FGM plate depend on the standard deviation of the input parameters and the velocity of the moving load.Furthermore, the numerical results in this study are expected to contribute to improving the understanding of FGM plates subjected to moving loads with uncertain input parameters.

High-order Bragg forward scattering and frequency shift of low-frequency underwater acoustic field by moving rough sea surface

Acoustic scattering modulation caused by an undulating sea surface on the space-time dimension seriously affects underwater detection and target recognition.Herein,underwater acoustic scattering modulation from a moving rough sea surface is studied based on integral equation and parabolic equation.And with the principles of grating and constructive interference,the mechanism of this acoustic scattering modulation is explained.The periodicity of the interference of moving rough sea surface will lead to the interference of the scattering field at a series of discrete angles,which will form comb-like and frequency-shift characteristics on the intensity and the frequency spectrum of the acoustic scattering field,respectively,which is a high-order Bragg scattering phenomenon.Unlike the conventional Doppler effect,the frequency shifts of the Bragg scattering phenomenon are multiples of the undulating sea surface frequency and are independent of the incident sound wave frequency.Therefore,even if a low-frequency underwater acoustic field is incident,it will produce obvious frequency shifts.Moreover,under the action of ideal sinusoidal waves,swells,fully grown wind waves,unsteady wind waves,or mixed waves,different moving rough sea surfaces create different acoustic scattering processes and possess different frequency shift characteristics.For the swell wave,which tends to be a single harmonic wave,the moving rough sea surface produces more obvious high-order scattering and frequency shifts.The same phenomena are observed on the sea surface under fully grown wind waves,however,the frequency shift slightly offsets the multiple peak frequencies of the wind wave spectrum.Comparing with the swell and fully-grown wind waves,the acoustic scattering and frequency shift are not obvious for the sea surface under unsteady wind waves.

Evaluation of Moving Grid Adjustment (MGA) Method in Field Variation Control

Spatial variation is often encountered when large scale field trials are conducted which can result in biased estimation or prediction of treatment (i.e. genotype) values. An effective removal of spatial variation is needed to ensure unbiased estimation or prediction and thus increase the accuracy of field data evaluation. A moving grid adjustment (MGA) method, which was proposed by Technow, was evaluated through Monte Carlo simulation for its statistical properties regarding field spatial variation control. Our simulation results showed that the MGA method can effectively account for field spatial variation if it does exist;however, this method will not change phenotype results if field spatial variation does not exist. The MGA method was applied to a large-scale cotton field trial data set with two representative agronomic traits: lint yield (strong field spatial pattern) and lint percentage (no field spatial pattern). The results suggested that the MGA method was able to effectively separate the spatial variation including blocking effects from random error variation for lint yield while the adjusted data remained almost identical to the original phenotypic data. With application of the MGA method, the estimated variance for residuals was significantly reduced (62.2% decrease) for lint yield while more genetic variation (29.7% increase) was detected compared to the original data analysis subject to the conventional randomized complete block design analysis. On the other hand, the results were almost identical for lint percentage with and without the application of the MGA method. Therefore, the MGA method can be a useful addition to enhance data analysis when field spatial pattern exists.

A High-Accuracy Curve Boundary Recognition Method Based on the Lattice Boltzmann Method and Immersed Moving Boundary Method

Applying numerical simulation technology to investigate fluid-solid interaction involving complex curved bound-aries is vital in aircraft design,ocean,and construction engineering.However,current methods such as Lattice Boltzmann(LBM)and the immersion boundary method based on solid ratio(IMB)have limitations in identifying custom curved boundaries.Meanwhile,IBM based on velocity correction(IBM-VC)suffers from inaccuracies and numerical instability.Therefore,this study introduces a high-accuracy curve boundary recognition method(IMB-CB),which identifies boundary nodes by moving the search box,and corrects the weighting function in LBM by calculating the solid ratio of the boundary nodes,achieving accurate recognition of custom curve boundaries.In addition,curve boundary image and dot methods are utilized to verify IMB-CB.The findings revealed that IMB-CB can accurately identify the boundary,showing an error of less than 1.8%with 500 lattices.Also,the flow in the custom curve boundary and aerodynamic characteristics of the NACA0012 airfoil are calculated and compared to IBM-VC.Results showed that IMB-CB yields lower lift and drag coefficient errors than IBM-VC,with a 1.45%drag coefficient error.In addition,the characteristic curve of IMB-CB is very stable,whereas that of IBM-VC is not.For the moving boundary problem,LBM-IMB-CB with discrete element method(DEM)is capable of accurately simulating the physical phenomena of multi-moving particle flow in complex curved pipelines.This research proposes a new curve boundary recognition method,which can significantly promote the stability and accuracy of fluid-solid interaction simulations and thus has huge applications in engineering.

Prediction and Output Estimation of Pattern Moving in Non-Newtonian Mechanical Systems Based on Probability Density Evolution

A prediction framework based on the evolution of pattern motion probability density is proposed for the output prediction and estimation problem of non-Newtonian mechanical systems,assuming that the system satisfies the generalized Lipschitz condition.As a complex nonlinear system primarily governed by statistical laws rather than Newtonian mechanics,the output of non-Newtonian mechanics systems is difficult to describe through deterministic variables such as state variables,which poses difficulties in predicting and estimating the system’s output.In this article,the temporal variation of the system is described by constructing pattern category variables,which are non-deterministic variables.Since pattern category variables have statistical attributes but not operational attributes,operational attributes are assigned to them by posterior probability density,and a method for analyzing their motion laws using probability density evolution is proposed.Furthermore,a data-driven form of pattern motion probabilistic density evolution prediction method is designed by combining pseudo partial derivative(PPD),achieving prediction of the probability density satisfying the system’s output uncertainty.Based on this,the final prediction estimation of the system’s output value is realized by minimum variance unbiased estimation.Finally,a corresponding PPD estimation algorithm is designed using an extended state observer(ESO)to estimate the parameters to be estimated in the proposed prediction method.The effectiveness of the parameter estimation algorithm and prediction method is demonstrated through theoretical analysis,and the accuracy of the algorithm is verified by two numerical simulation examples.