In this study,we evaluate the forecast skill of the subseasonal-to-seasonal(S2S)prediction model of the Beijing Climate Center(BCC)for the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation(BSISO).We also discuss the key factors...In this study,we evaluate the forecast skill of the subseasonal-to-seasonal(S2S)prediction model of the Beijing Climate Center(BCC)for the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation(BSISO).We also discuss the key factors that inhibit the BSISO forecast skill in this model.Based on the bivariate anomaly correlation coefficient(ACC)of the BSISO index,defined by the first two EOF modes of outgoing longwave radiation and 850-hPa zonal wind anomalies over the Asian monsoon region,we found that the hindcast skill degraded as the lead time increased.The ACC dropped to below 0.5for lead times of 11 days and longer when the predicted BSISO showed weakened strength and insignificant northward propagation.To identify what causes the weakened forecast skill of BSISO at the forecast lead time of 11 days,we diagnosed the main mechanisms responsible for the BSISO northward propagation.The same analysis was also carried out using the observations and the outputs of the four-day forecast lead that successfully predicted the observed northward-propagating BSISO.We found that the lack of northward propagation at the 11-day forecast lead was due to insufficient increases in low-level cyclonic vorticity,moistening and warm temperature anomalies to the north of the convection,which were induced by the interaction between background mean flows and BSISO-related anomalous fields.The BCC S2S model can predict the background monsoon circulations,such as the low-level southerly and the northerly and easterly vertical shears,but has limited capability in forecasting the distributions of circulation and moisture anomalies.展开更多
Based on the idea of systematic science of alloys, we derived the interaction equations of binary alloys in BCC structure in this paper. According to the basic information of characteristic atoms sequences and charact...Based on the idea of systematic science of alloys, we derived the interaction equations of binary alloys in BCC structure in this paper. According to the basic information of characteristic atoms sequences and characteristic crystals sequences of Nb-Mo alloy system and the concentrations of characteristic atoms of Nb-Mo alloy system, the properties of DO3-Nb3Mo type ordered alloys, B2-NbMo type ordered alloys and DO3-NbMo3 type ordered alloys and disordered alloys were calcu-lated. The results show that the properties of ordered alloys exhibit stronger variations than those of disordered Nb(1-x)Mox alloys when approaching the stoichiometric ratio, whereas the opposite trend occurs when deviating from the stoichiometric ratio. The main reason is that the ordering degree is maximal at the stoichiometric ratio while it decreases linearly when deviating from stoichiometric ratio. On the contrary, the number of bonding electrons among atoms increases with the simultaneous decreasing of the nearly free electrons, which shortens the bond lengths and thus strengthens the crystal bonding.展开更多
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) (Grant No.2015CB453200)
文摘In this study,we evaluate the forecast skill of the subseasonal-to-seasonal(S2S)prediction model of the Beijing Climate Center(BCC)for the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation(BSISO).We also discuss the key factors that inhibit the BSISO forecast skill in this model.Based on the bivariate anomaly correlation coefficient(ACC)of the BSISO index,defined by the first two EOF modes of outgoing longwave radiation and 850-hPa zonal wind anomalies over the Asian monsoon region,we found that the hindcast skill degraded as the lead time increased.The ACC dropped to below 0.5for lead times of 11 days and longer when the predicted BSISO showed weakened strength and insignificant northward propagation.To identify what causes the weakened forecast skill of BSISO at the forecast lead time of 11 days,we diagnosed the main mechanisms responsible for the BSISO northward propagation.The same analysis was also carried out using the observations and the outputs of the four-day forecast lead that successfully predicted the observed northward-propagating BSISO.We found that the lack of northward propagation at the 11-day forecast lead was due to insufficient increases in low-level cyclonic vorticity,moistening and warm temperature anomalies to the north of the convection,which were induced by the interaction between background mean flows and BSISO-related anomalous fields.The BCC S2S model can predict the background monsoon circulations,such as the low-level southerly and the northerly and easterly vertical shears,but has limited capability in forecasting the distributions of circulation and moisture anomalies.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 50954006)Hunan Science and Technology Department (Grant No. 2010RS4015)+2 种基金Hunan Provincial Construction Department (Grant No. 201012)Hunan Provincial Education Department (Grant No. 21KZ)Changsha City Science and Technology Department (GrantNo. K1003048-11)
文摘Based on the idea of systematic science of alloys, we derived the interaction equations of binary alloys in BCC structure in this paper. According to the basic information of characteristic atoms sequences and characteristic crystals sequences of Nb-Mo alloy system and the concentrations of characteristic atoms of Nb-Mo alloy system, the properties of DO3-Nb3Mo type ordered alloys, B2-NbMo type ordered alloys and DO3-NbMo3 type ordered alloys and disordered alloys were calcu-lated. The results show that the properties of ordered alloys exhibit stronger variations than those of disordered Nb(1-x)Mox alloys when approaching the stoichiometric ratio, whereas the opposite trend occurs when deviating from the stoichiometric ratio. The main reason is that the ordering degree is maximal at the stoichiometric ratio while it decreases linearly when deviating from stoichiometric ratio. On the contrary, the number of bonding electrons among atoms increases with the simultaneous decreasing of the nearly free electrons, which shortens the bond lengths and thus strengthens the crystal bonding.
