我国高校债务风险动态预警模型研究

目前,高校负债日趋严重,所面临的债务风险受到广泛关注,如何对高校债务风险进行动态预警尤为重要。文章综合考虑影响高校债务风险的各种因素,选取了10个财务指标和4个非财务指标,利用样本数据,运用主成分分析法算出主成分的综合得分,分别运用模糊隶属度与BP-神经网络分析法,对高校债务风险综合评价比较。实例验证主成分-BP-神经网络分析模型更优。

Prediction of Injection-Production Ratio with BP Neural Network

Injection of water to enhance oil production is commonplace, and improvements in understanding the process are economically important. This study examines predictive models of the injection-to-production ratio. Firstly, the error between the fitting and actual injection-production ratio is calculated with such methods as the injection-production ratio and water-oil ratio method, the material balance method, the multiple regression method, the gray theory GM (1,1) model and the back-propogation (BP) neural network method by computer applications in this paper. The relative average errors calculated are respectively 1.67%, 1.08%, 19.2%, 1.38% and 0.88%. Secondly, the reasons for the errors from different prediction methods are analyzed theoretically, indicating that the prediction precision of the BP neural network method is high, and that it has a better self-adaptability, so that it can reflect the internal relationship between the injection-production ratio and the influencing factors. Therefore, the BP neural network method is suitable to the prediction of injection-production ratio.

DNA Sequence Classification Based on the Side Chain Radical Polarity of Amino Acids

The features of DNA sequence fragments were extracted from the distribution density of the condons in the individual cases of DNA sequence fragments. Based on the polarity of side chain radicals of amino acids molecules, the amino acids were classified into five categories, and the frequencies of these five categories were calculated. This kind of feature extraction based on the biological meanings not only took the content of basic groups into consideration, but also considered the marshal ing sequence of the basic groups. The hierarchical clustering analysis and BP neural network were used to classify the DNA sequence fragments. The results showed that the classification results of these two kinds of algo-rithms not only had high accuracy, but also had high consistence, indicating that this kind of feature extraction was superior over the traditional feature extraction which only took the features of basic groups into consideration.

Satellite retrieval of hurricane wind speeds using the AMSR2 microwave radiometer

The AMSR2 microwave radiometer is the main payload of the GCOM-W1 satellite,launched by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency in 2012. Based on the pre-launch information extraction algorithm,the AMSR2 enables remote monitoring of geophysical parameters such as sea surface temperature,wind speed,water vapor,and liquid cloud water content. However,rain alters the properties of atmospheric scattering and absorption,which contaminates the brightness temperatures measured by the microwave radiometer. Therefore,it is difficult to retrieve AMSR2-derived sea surface wind speeds under rainfall conditions. Based on microwave radiative transfer theory,and using AMSR2 L1 brightness temperature data obtained in August 2012 and NCEP reanalysis data,we studied the sensitivity of AMSR2 brightness temperatures to rain and wind speed,from which a channel combination of brightness temperature was established that is insensitive to rainfall,but sensitive to wind speed. Using brightness temperatures obtained with the proposed channel combination as input parameters,in conjunction with HRD wind field data,and adopting multiple linear regression and BP neural network methods,we established an algorithm for hurricane wind speed retrieval under rainfall conditions. The results showed that the standard deviation and relative error of retrievals,obtained using the multiple linear regression algorithm,were 3.1 m/s and 13%,respectively. However,the standard deviation and relative error of retrievals obtained using the BP neural network algorithm were better(2.1 m/s and 8%,respectively). Thus,the results of this paper preliminarily verified the feasibility of using microwave radiometers to extract sea surface wind speeds under rainfall conditions.

Predict typhoon-induced storm surge deviation in a principal component back-propagation neural network model

To reduce typhoon-caused damages, numerical and empirical methods are often used to forecast typhoon storm surge. However, typhoon surge is a complex nonlinear process that is difficult to forecast accurately. We applied a principal component back-propagation neural network (PCBPNN) to predict the deviation in typhoon storm surge, in which data of the typhoon, upstream flood, and historical case studies were involved. With principal component analysis, 15 input factors were reduced to five principal components, and the application of the model was improved. Observation data from Huangpu Park in Shanghai, China were used to test the feasibility of the model. The results indicate that the model is capable of predicting a 12-hour warning before a typhoon surge.

A back-propagation neural-network-based displacement back analysis for the identification of the geomechanical parameters of the Yonglang landslide in China

Xigeda formation is a type of hundredmeter-thick lacustrine sediments of being prone to triggering landslides along the trunk channel and tributaries of the upper Yangtze River in China. The Yonglang landslide located near Yonglang Town of Dechang County in Sichuan Province of China, which was a typical Xigeda formation landslide, was stabilized by anti-slide piles. Loading tests on a loading-test pile were conducted to measure the displacements and moments. The uncertainty of the tested geomechanical parameters of the Yonglang landslide over certain ranges would be problematic during the evaluation of the landslide. Thus, uniform design was introduced in the experimental design,and by which, numerical analyses of the loading-test pile were performed using Fast Lagrangian Analysis of Continua(FLAC3D) to acquire a database of the geomechanical parameters of the Yonglang landslide and the corresponding displacements of the loadingtest pile. A three-layer back-propagation neural network was established and trained with the database, and then tested and verified for its accuracy and reliability in numerical simulations. Displacement back analysis was conducted by substituting the displacements of the loading-test pile to the well-trained three-layer back-propagation neural network so as to identify the geomechanical parameters of the Yonglang landslide. The neuralnetwork-based displacement back analysis method with the proposed methodology is verified to be accurate and reliable for the identification of the uncertain geomechanical parameters of landslides.

A quantitative BP neural network analysis of the relationships between ΣREE content and impact factors in the Beibu Gulf

The distribution characteristics of rare earth elements （REE） in bottomsediments are influenced by many factors. Hence, conducting a quantitative analysis isdifficult. A qualitative analysis of the relationships between ΣREE content andprovenance, hydrodynamics, grain size and mineral distribution in the Beibu Gulf showsthat terrestrial rocks control the ΣREE composition. Both weaker hydrodynamics andfiner grain size lead to a higher ΣREE content. Relative curves revealing therelationships between individual impact factors and ΣREE content were obtained fromthe combination of qualitative and quantitative analyses of the BP neural network,which trained the position of samples, gravel content, sand content, silt content, claycontent and clay mineral content. The results are consistent with those of thequantitative analysis. The self-learning algorithm is automatically determined andcalculated quantitatively. The impact of each factor on REEs and how each factorcontrols the ΣREE distribution is identified. Thus, environmental changes and thegeological evolution of the region can be inferred based on curve variation and the geological evolution of the region can be inferred based on curve variation and theactual situation. This method also provides useful theoretical guidance for the analysisof REE enrichment and dispersion.

An Evaluating Model for Enterprise's Innovation Capability Based on BP Neural Network

To meet the challenge of knowledge-based economy in the 21st century,scientifically evaluating the innovation capability is important to strengthen the international competence and acquire long-term competitive advantage for Chinese enterprises.In the article,based on the description of concept and structure of enterprise's innovation capability,the evaluation index system of innovation capability is established according to Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP).In succession,evaluation model based on Back Propagation(BP) neural network is put forward,which provides some theoretic guidance to scientifically evaluating the innovation capability of Chinese enterprises.

Experimental study of fatigue degree quantification for multi-feature fusion identification

A comprehensive quantification method of fatigue degree is proposed concerning subjective and objective quantifications.Using the fatigue degree test software,fatigue degree is objectively quantified by analyzing the reaction and operation abilities of drivers about traffic signals.By comparison experiment with that EEG signal based,multivariate statistical analysis and fusion identification based on BP neural network(BPNN) results show that the experimental procedure is simple and practical,and the proposed method can reveal the correlation between fatigue feature parameters and fatigue degree in theory,and also can achieve accurate and reliable quantification of fatigue degree,especially under the associated action of multiple fatigue feature parameters.

Parameter sensitivity and inversion analysis of a concrete faced rock-fill dam based on HS-BPNN algorithm

Considering the complex nonlinear relationship between the material parameters of a concrete faced rock-fill dam(CFRD) and its displacements, the harmony search(HS) algorithm is used to optimize the back propagation neural network(BPNN), and the HS-BPNN algorithm is formed and applied for the inversion analysis of the parameters of rock-fill materials. The sensitivity of the parameters in the Duncan and Chang's E-B model is analyzed using the orthogonal test design. The case study shows that the parameters φ0, K, Rf, and Kb are sensitive to the deformation of the rock-fill dam and the inversion analysis for these parameters is performed by the HS-BPNN algorithm. Compared with the traditional BPNN, the HS-BPNN algorithm exhibits the advantages of high convergence precision, fast convergence rate, and strong stability.