Improving the accuracy of solar power forecasting is crucial to ensure grid stability,optimize solar power plant operations,and enhance grid dispatch efficiency.Although hybrid neural network models can effectively ad...Improving the accuracy of solar power forecasting is crucial to ensure grid stability,optimize solar power plant operations,and enhance grid dispatch efficiency.Although hybrid neural network models can effectively address the complexities of environmental data and power prediction uncertainties,challenges such as labor-intensive parameter adjustments and complex optimization processes persist.Thus,this study proposed a novel approach for solar power prediction using a hybrid model(CNN-LSTM-attention)that combines a convolutional neural network(CNN),long short-term memory(LSTM),and attention mechanisms.The model incorporates Bayesian optimization to refine the parameters and enhance the prediction accuracy.To prepare high-quality training data,the solar power data were first preprocessed,including feature selection,data cleaning,imputation,and smoothing.The processed data were then used to train a hybrid model based on the CNN-LSTM-attention architecture,followed by hyperparameter optimization employing Bayesian methods.The experimental results indicated that within acceptable model training times,the CNN-LSTM-attention model outperformed the LSTM,GRU,CNN-LSTM,CNN-LSTM with autoencoders,and parallel CNN-LSTM attention models.Furthermore,following Bayesian optimization,the optimized model demonstrated significantly reduced prediction errors during periods of data volatility compared to the original model,as evidenced by MRE evaluations.This highlights the clear advantage of the optimized model in forecasting fluctuating data.展开更多
对于如何抑制正电子发射成像(positron emission tomography,PET)中的噪声效果的问题,Bayesian重建或者最大化后验估计(maximum a posteriori,MAP)的方法在重建图像质量和收敛性方面具有相对于其他方法的优越性。基于Bayesian理论,本文...对于如何抑制正电子发射成像(positron emission tomography,PET)中的噪声效果的问题,Bayesian重建或者最大化后验估计(maximum a posteriori,MAP)的方法在重建图像质量和收敛性方面具有相对于其他方法的优越性。基于Bayesian理论,本文提出了一种新的能够保持其先验能量函数凸性的马尔可夫随机场(Markov Random Fields,MRF)混合多阶二次先验(quadratic hybrid multi-order,QHM),该QHM先验综合了二次-阶(quadratic membrane,QM)先验和二次二阶(quadratic plate,QP)先验,且能够根据不同阶数的二次先验和待重建表面的性质自适应的发挥QM先验和QP先验的作用。文中还给出了使用该新的混合先验的收敛重建算法。模拟实验结果的视觉和量化比较证明了对于PET重建,该先验在抑制背景噪声和保持边缘方面具有很好的表现。展开更多
This article presents an up-to-date tutorial review of nonlinear Bayesian estimation. State estimation for nonlinear systems has been a challenge encountered in a wide range of engineering fields, attracting decades o...This article presents an up-to-date tutorial review of nonlinear Bayesian estimation. State estimation for nonlinear systems has been a challenge encountered in a wide range of engineering fields, attracting decades of research effort. To date,one of the most promising and popular approaches is to view and address the problem from a Bayesian probabilistic perspective,which enables estimation of the unknown state variables by tracking their probabilistic distribution or statistics(e.g., mean and covariance) conditioned on a system's measurement data.This article offers a systematic introduction to the Bayesian state estimation framework and reviews various Kalman filtering(KF)techniques, progressively from the standard KF for linear systems to extended KF, unscented KF and ensemble KF for nonlinear systems. It also overviews other prominent or emerging Bayesian estimation methods including Gaussian filtering, Gaussian-sum filtering, particle filtering and moving horizon estimation and extends the discussion of state estimation to more complicated problems such as simultaneous state and parameter/input estimation.展开更多
Measurement error of unbalance＇s vibration response plays a crucial role in calibration and on-line updating of influence coefficient（IC）. Focusing on the two problems that the moment estimator of data used in cali...Measurement error of unbalance＇s vibration response plays a crucial role in calibration and on-line updating of influence coefficient（IC）. Focusing on the two problems that the moment estimator of data used in calibration process cannot fulfill the accuracy requirement under small sample and the disturbance of measurement error cannot be effectively suppressed in updating process, an IC calibration and on-line updating method based on hierarchical Bayesian method for automatic dynamic balancing machine was proposed. During calibration process, for the repeatedly-measured data obtained from experiments with different trial weights, according to the fact that measurement error of each sensor had the same statistical characteristics, the joint posterior distribution model for the true values of the vibration response under all trial weights and measurement error was established. During the updating process, information obtained from calibration was regarded as prior information, which was utilized to update the posterior distribution of IC combined with the real-time reference information to implement online updating. Moreover, Gibbs sampling method of Markov Chain Monte Carlo（MCMC） was adopted to obtain the maximum posterior estimation of parameters to be estimated. On the independent developed dynamic balancing testbed, prediction was carried out for multiple groups of data through the proposed method and the traditional method respectively, the result indicated that estimator of influence coefficient obtained through the proposed method had higher accuracy; the proposed updating method more effectively guaranteed the measurement accuracy during the whole producing process, and meantime more reasonably compromised between the sensitivity of IC change and suppression of randomness of vibration response.展开更多
This paper considers the Bayesian and expected Bayesian（E-Bayesian） estimations of the parameter and reliability function for competing risk model from Gompertz distribution under Type-I progressively hybrid censori...This paper considers the Bayesian and expected Bayesian（E-Bayesian） estimations of the parameter and reliability function for competing risk model from Gompertz distribution under Type-I progressively hybrid censoring scheme（PHCS）. The estimations are obtained based on Gamma conjugate prior for the parameter under squared error（SE） and Linex loss functions. The simulation results are provided for the comparison purpose and one data set is analyzed.展开更多
To provide a decision-making aid for aircraft carrier battle,the winning probability estimation based on Bradley-Terry model and Bayesian network is presented. Firstly,the armed forces units of aircraft carrier are cl...To provide a decision-making aid for aircraft carrier battle,the winning probability estimation based on Bradley-Terry model and Bayesian network is presented. Firstly,the armed forces units of aircraft carrier are classified into three types,which are aircraft,ship and submarine. Then,the attack ability value and defense ability value for each type of armed forces are estimated by using BP neural network,whose training results of sample data are consistent with the estimation results. Next,compared the assessment values through an improved Bradley-Terry model and constructed a Bayesian network to do the global assessment,the winning probabilities of both combat sides are obtained. Finally,the winning probability estimation for a navy battle is given to illustrate the validity of the proposed scheme.展开更多
Discernment of seismic soil liquefaction is a complex and non-linear procedure that is affected by diversified factors of uncertainties and complexity.The Bayesian belief network(BBN)is an effective tool to present a ...Discernment of seismic soil liquefaction is a complex and non-linear procedure that is affected by diversified factors of uncertainties and complexity.The Bayesian belief network(BBN)is an effective tool to present a suitable framework to handle insights into such uncertainties and cause–effect relationships.The intention of this study is to use a hybrid approach methodology for the development of BBN model based on cone penetration test(CPT)case history records to evaluate seismic soil liquefaction potential.In this hybrid approach,naive model is developed initially only by an interpretive structural modeling(ISM)technique using domain knowledge(DK).Subsequently,some useful information about the naive model are embedded as DK in the K2 algorithm to develop a BBN-K2 and DK model.The results of the BBN models are compared and validated with the available artificial neural network(ANN)and C4.5 decision tree(DT)models and found that the BBN model developed by hybrid approach showed compatible and promising results for liquefaction potential assessment.The BBN model developed by hybrid approach provides a viable tool for geotechnical engineers to assess sites conditions susceptible to seismic soil liquefaction.This study also presents sensitivity analysis of the BBN model based on hybrid approach and the most probable explanation of liquefied sites,owing to know the most likely scenario of the liquefaction phenomenon.展开更多
In practical development of unconventional reservoirs,fracture networks are a highly conductive transport media for subsurface fluid flow.Therefore,it is crucial to clearly determine the fracture properties used in pr...In practical development of unconventional reservoirs,fracture networks are a highly conductive transport media for subsurface fluid flow.Therefore,it is crucial to clearly determine the fracture properties used in production forecast.However,it is different to calibrate the properties of fracture networks because it is an inverse problem with multi-patterns and highcomplexity of fracture distribution and inherent defect of multiplicity of solution.In this paper,in order to solve the problem,the complex fracture model is divided into two sub-systems,namely"Pattern A"and"Pattern B."In addition,the generation method is grouped into two categories.Firstly,we construct each sub-system based on the probability density function of the fracture properties.Secondly,we recombine the sub-systems into an integral complex fracture system.Based on the generation mechanism,the estimation of the complex fracture from dynamic performance and observation data can be solved as an inverse problem.In this study,the Bayesian formulation is used to quantify the uncertainty of fracture properties.To minimize observation data misfit immediately as it occurs,we optimize the updated properties by a simultaneous perturbation stochastic algorithm which requires only two measurements of the loss function.In numerical experiments,we firstly visualize that small-scale fractures significantly contribute to the flow simulation.Then,we demonstrate the suitability and effectiveness of the Bayesian formulation for calibrating the complex fracture model in the following simulation.展开更多
In this paper, we construct a Bayesian framework combining Type-Ⅰ progressively hybrid censoring scheme and competing risks which are independently distributed as exponentiated Weibull distribution with one scale par...In this paper, we construct a Bayesian framework combining Type-Ⅰ progressively hybrid censoring scheme and competing risks which are independently distributed as exponentiated Weibull distribution with one scale parameter and two shape parameters. Since there exist unknown hyper-parameters in prior density functions of shape parameters, we consider the hierarchical priors to obtain the individual marginal posterior density functions,Bayesian estimates and highest posterior density credible intervals. As explicit expressions of estimates cannot be obtained, the componentwise updating algorithm of Metropolis-Hastings method is employed to compute the numerical results. Finally, it is concluded that Bayesian estimates have a good performance.展开更多
The choices of the parameterizations for each component in a microwave emission model have significant effects on the quality of brightness temperature （Tb） sim- ulation. How to reduce the uncertainty in the Tb simu...The choices of the parameterizations for each component in a microwave emission model have significant effects on the quality of brightness temperature （Tb） sim- ulation. How to reduce the uncertainty in the Tb simulation is investigated by adopting a statistical post-processing procedure with the Bayesian model averaging （BMA） ensemble approach. The simulations by the community microwave emission model （CMEM） cou- pled with the community land model version 4.5 （CLM4.5） over China's Mainland are con- ducted by the 24 configurations from four vegetation opacity parameterizations （VOPs）, three soil dielectric constant parameterizations （SDCPs）, and two soil roughness param- eterizations （SRPs）. Compared with the simple arithmetical averaging （SAA） method, the BMA reconstructions have a higher spatial correlation coefficient （larger than 0.99） than the C-band satellite observations of the advanced microwave scanning radiometer on the Earth observing system （AMSR-E） at the vertical polarization. Moreover, the BMA product performs the best among the ensemble members for all vegetation classes, with a mean root-mean-square difference （RMSD） of 4 K and a temporal correlation coefficient of 0.64.展开更多
This paper proposes a hybrid Bayesian Network(BN)method for short-term forecasting of crude oil prices.The method performed is a hybrid,based on both the aspects of classification of influencing factors as well as the...This paper proposes a hybrid Bayesian Network(BN)method for short-term forecasting of crude oil prices.The method performed is a hybrid,based on both the aspects of classification of influencing factors as well as the regression of the out-ofsample values.For the sake of performance comparison,several other hybrid methods have also been devised using the methods of Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC),Random Forest(RF),Support Vector Machine(SVM),neural networks(NNET)and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity(GARCH).The hybrid methodology is primarily reliant upon constructing the crude oil price forecast from the summation of its Intrinsic Mode Functions(IMF)and its residue,extracted by an Empirical Mode Decomposition(EMD)of the original crude price signal.The Volatility Index(VIX)as well as the Implied Oil Volatility Index(OVX)has been considered among the influencing parameters of the crude price forecast.The final set of influencing parameters were selected as the whole set of significant contributors detected by the methods of Bayesian Network,Quantile Regression with Lasso penalty(QRL),Bayesian Lasso(BLasso)and the Bayesian Ridge Regression(BRR).The performance of the proposed hybrid-BN method is reported for the three crude price benchmarks:West Texas Intermediate,Brent Crude and the OPEC Reference Basket.展开更多
Localization of sensor nodes in the internet of underwater things(IoUT)is of considerable significance due to its various applications,such as navigation,data tagging,and detection of underwater objects.Therefore,in t...Localization of sensor nodes in the internet of underwater things(IoUT)is of considerable significance due to its various applications,such as navigation,data tagging,and detection of underwater objects.Therefore,in this paper,we propose a hybrid Bayesian multidimensional scaling(BMDS)based localization technique that can work on a fully hybrid IoUT network where the nodes can communicate using either optical,magnetic induction,and acoustic technologies.These communication technologies are already used for communication in the underwater environment;however,lacking localization solutions.Optical and magnetic induction communication achieves higher data rates for short communication.On the contrary,acoustic waves provide a low data rate for long-range underwater communication.The proposed method collectively uses optical,magnetic induction,and acoustic communication-based ranging to estimate the underwater sensor nodes’final locations.Moreover,we also analyze the proposed scheme by deriving the hybrid Cramer-Rao lower bound(H-CRLB).Simulation results provide a complete comparative analysis of the proposed method with the literature.展开更多
Magnesium(Mg),being the lightest structural metal,holds immense potential for widespread applications in various fields.The development of high-performance and cost-effective Mg alloys is crucial to further advancing ...Magnesium(Mg),being the lightest structural metal,holds immense potential for widespread applications in various fields.The development of high-performance and cost-effective Mg alloys is crucial to further advancing their commercial utilization.With the rapid advancement of machine learning(ML)technology in recent years,the“data-driven''approach for alloy design has provided new perspectives and opportunities for enhancing the performance of Mg alloys.This paper introduces a novel regression-based Bayesian optimization active learning model(RBOALM)for the development of high-performance Mg-Mn-based wrought alloys.RBOALM employs active learning to automatically explore optimal alloy compositions and process parameters within predefined ranges,facilitating the discovery of superior alloy combinations.This model further integrates pre-established regression models as surrogate functions in Bayesian optimization,significantly enhancing the precision of the design process.Leveraging RBOALM,several new high-performance alloys have been successfully designed and prepared.Notably,after mechanical property testing of the designed alloys,the Mg-2.1Zn-2.0Mn-0.5Sn-0.1Ca alloy demonstrates exceptional mechanical properties,including an ultimate tensile strength of 406 MPa,a yield strength of 287 MPa,and a 23%fracture elongation.Furthermore,the Mg-2.7Mn-0.5Al-0.1Ca alloy exhibits an ultimate tensile strength of 211 MPa,coupled with a remarkable 41%fracture elongation.展开更多
The Bayesian approach is considered as the most general formulation of the state estimation for dynamic systems. However, most of the existing Bayesian estimators of stochastic hybrid systems only focus on the Markov ...The Bayesian approach is considered as the most general formulation of the state estimation for dynamic systems. However, most of the existing Bayesian estimators of stochastic hybrid systems only focus on the Markov jump system, few liter- ature is related to the estimation problem of nonlinear stochastic hybrid systems with state dependent transitions. According to this problem, a new methodology which relaxes quite a restrictive as- sumption that the mode transition process must satisfy Markov properties is proposed. In this method, a general approach is presented to model the state dependent transitions, the state and output spaces are discreted into cell space which handles the nonlinearities and computationally intensive problem offline. Then maximum a posterior estimation is obtained by using the Bayesian theory. The efficacy of the estimator is illustrated by a simulated example .展开更多
The Bayesian sampling plans for exponential distributions are studied based on type-Ⅱ hybrid censored samples. The optimal Bayesian sampling plan is derived under a general loss function which includes the sampling c...The Bayesian sampling plans for exponential distributions are studied based on type-Ⅱ hybrid censored samples. The optimal Bayesian sampling plan is derived under a general loss function which includes the sampling cost, time-consuming cost, salvage value,and decision loss. It is employed to determine the Bayes risk and the corresponding optimal sampling plan. An explicit expression of the Bayes risk is derived. Furthermore,for the conjugate prior distribution,the closed-form formula of the Bayes decision rule can be obtained under either the linear or quadratic decision loss.展开更多
基金supported by the State Grid Science&Technology Project(5400-202224153A-1-1-ZN).
文摘Improving the accuracy of solar power forecasting is crucial to ensure grid stability,optimize solar power plant operations,and enhance grid dispatch efficiency.Although hybrid neural network models can effectively address the complexities of environmental data and power prediction uncertainties,challenges such as labor-intensive parameter adjustments and complex optimization processes persist.Thus,this study proposed a novel approach for solar power prediction using a hybrid model(CNN-LSTM-attention)that combines a convolutional neural network(CNN),long short-term memory(LSTM),and attention mechanisms.The model incorporates Bayesian optimization to refine the parameters and enhance the prediction accuracy.To prepare high-quality training data,the solar power data were first preprocessed,including feature selection,data cleaning,imputation,and smoothing.The processed data were then used to train a hybrid model based on the CNN-LSTM-attention architecture,followed by hyperparameter optimization employing Bayesian methods.The experimental results indicated that within acceptable model training times,the CNN-LSTM-attention model outperformed the LSTM,GRU,CNN-LSTM,CNN-LSTM with autoencoders,and parallel CNN-LSTM attention models.Furthermore,following Bayesian optimization,the optimized model demonstrated significantly reduced prediction errors during periods of data volatility compared to the original model,as evidenced by MRE evaluations.This highlights the clear advantage of the optimized model in forecasting fluctuating data.
文摘This article presents an up-to-date tutorial review of nonlinear Bayesian estimation. State estimation for nonlinear systems has been a challenge encountered in a wide range of engineering fields, attracting decades of research effort. To date,one of the most promising and popular approaches is to view and address the problem from a Bayesian probabilistic perspective,which enables estimation of the unknown state variables by tracking their probabilistic distribution or statistics(e.g., mean and covariance) conditioned on a system's measurement data.This article offers a systematic introduction to the Bayesian state estimation framework and reviews various Kalman filtering(KF)techniques, progressively from the standard KF for linear systems to extended KF, unscented KF and ensemble KF for nonlinear systems. It also overviews other prominent or emerging Bayesian estimation methods including Gaussian filtering, Gaussian-sum filtering, particle filtering and moving horizon estimation and extends the discussion of state estimation to more complicated problems such as simultaneous state and parameter/input estimation.
基金supported by National Hi-tech Research and Development Program of China (863 Program, Grant No. 2008 AA04Z114)
文摘Measurement error of unbalance＇s vibration response plays a crucial role in calibration and on-line updating of influence coefficient（IC）. Focusing on the two problems that the moment estimator of data used in calibration process cannot fulfill the accuracy requirement under small sample and the disturbance of measurement error cannot be effectively suppressed in updating process, an IC calibration and on-line updating method based on hierarchical Bayesian method for automatic dynamic balancing machine was proposed. During calibration process, for the repeatedly-measured data obtained from experiments with different trial weights, according to the fact that measurement error of each sensor had the same statistical characteristics, the joint posterior distribution model for the true values of the vibration response under all trial weights and measurement error was established. During the updating process, information obtained from calibration was regarded as prior information, which was utilized to update the posterior distribution of IC combined with the real-time reference information to implement online updating. Moreover, Gibbs sampling method of Markov Chain Monte Carlo（MCMC） was adopted to obtain the maximum posterior estimation of parameters to be estimated. On the independent developed dynamic balancing testbed, prediction was carried out for multiple groups of data through the proposed method and the traditional method respectively, the result indicated that estimator of influence coefficient obtained through the proposed method had higher accuracy; the proposed updating method more effectively guaranteed the measurement accuracy during the whole producing process, and meantime more reasonably compromised between the sensitivity of IC change and suppression of randomness of vibration response.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(7117116471401134+1 种基金71571144)the Natural Science Basic Research Program of Shaanxi Province(2015JM1003)
文摘This paper considers the Bayesian and expected Bayesian（E-Bayesian） estimations of the parameter and reliability function for competing risk model from Gompertz distribution under Type-I progressively hybrid censoring scheme（PHCS）. The estimations are obtained based on Gamma conjugate prior for the parameter under squared error（SE） and Linex loss functions. The simulation results are provided for the comparison purpose and one data set is analyzed.
基金Sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.61374212)the Aeronautical Science Foundation of China(Grant No.20135152047)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Grant No.NJ20160022)
文摘To provide a decision-making aid for aircraft carrier battle,the winning probability estimation based on Bradley-Terry model and Bayesian network is presented. Firstly,the armed forces units of aircraft carrier are classified into three types,which are aircraft,ship and submarine. Then,the attack ability value and defense ability value for each type of armed forces are estimated by using BP neural network,whose training results of sample data are consistent with the estimation results. Next,compared the assessment values through an improved Bradley-Terry model and constructed a Bayesian network to do the global assessment,the winning probabilities of both combat sides are obtained. Finally,the winning probability estimation for a navy battle is given to illustrate the validity of the proposed scheme.
基金Projects(2016YFE0200100,2018YFC1505300-5.3)supported by the National Key Research&Development Plan of ChinaProject(51639002)supported by the Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘Discernment of seismic soil liquefaction is a complex and non-linear procedure that is affected by diversified factors of uncertainties and complexity.The Bayesian belief network(BBN)is an effective tool to present a suitable framework to handle insights into such uncertainties and cause–effect relationships.The intention of this study is to use a hybrid approach methodology for the development of BBN model based on cone penetration test(CPT)case history records to evaluate seismic soil liquefaction potential.In this hybrid approach,naive model is developed initially only by an interpretive structural modeling(ISM)technique using domain knowledge(DK).Subsequently,some useful information about the naive model are embedded as DK in the K2 algorithm to develop a BBN-K2 and DK model.The results of the BBN models are compared and validated with the available artificial neural network(ANN)and C4.5 decision tree(DT)models and found that the BBN model developed by hybrid approach showed compatible and promising results for liquefaction potential assessment.The BBN model developed by hybrid approach provides a viable tool for geotechnical engineers to assess sites conditions susceptible to seismic soil liquefaction.This study also presents sensitivity analysis of the BBN model based on hybrid approach and the most probable explanation of liquefied sites,owing to know the most likely scenario of the liquefaction phenomenon.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.51722406,61573018 and 51874335)the Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation(Grant JQ201808)+1 种基金the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Grant 18CX02097A)the National Science and Technology Major Project of China(Grant 2016ZX05025001-006)
文摘In practical development of unconventional reservoirs,fracture networks are a highly conductive transport media for subsurface fluid flow.Therefore,it is crucial to clearly determine the fracture properties used in production forecast.However,it is different to calibrate the properties of fracture networks because it is an inverse problem with multi-patterns and highcomplexity of fracture distribution and inherent defect of multiplicity of solution.In this paper,in order to solve the problem,the complex fracture model is divided into two sub-systems,namely"Pattern A"and"Pattern B."In addition,the generation method is grouped into two categories.Firstly,we construct each sub-system based on the probability density function of the fracture properties.Secondly,we recombine the sub-systems into an integral complex fracture system.Based on the generation mechanism,the estimation of the complex fracture from dynamic performance and observation data can be solved as an inverse problem.In this study,the Bayesian formulation is used to quantify the uncertainty of fracture properties.To minimize observation data misfit immediately as it occurs,we optimize the updated properties by a simultaneous perturbation stochastic algorithm which requires only two measurements of the loss function.In numerical experiments,we firstly visualize that small-scale fractures significantly contribute to the flow simulation.Then,we demonstrate the suitability and effectiveness of the Bayesian formulation for calibrating the complex fracture model in the following simulation.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China（71571144,71401134,71171164,11701406） Supported by the International Cooperation and Exchanges in Science and Technology Program of Shaanxi Province（2016KW-033）
文摘In this paper, we construct a Bayesian framework combining Type-Ⅰ progressively hybrid censoring scheme and competing risks which are independently distributed as exponentiated Weibull distribution with one scale parameter and two shape parameters. Since there exist unknown hyper-parameters in prior density functions of shape parameters, we consider the hierarchical priors to obtain the individual marginal posterior density functions,Bayesian estimates and highest posterior density credible intervals. As explicit expressions of estimates cannot be obtained, the componentwise updating algorithm of Metropolis-Hastings method is employed to compute the numerical results. Finally, it is concluded that Bayesian estimates have a good performance.
基金Project supported by the China Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest(No.GYHY201306045)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.41305066 and41575096)
文摘The choices of the parameterizations for each component in a microwave emission model have significant effects on the quality of brightness temperature （Tb） sim- ulation. How to reduce the uncertainty in the Tb simulation is investigated by adopting a statistical post-processing procedure with the Bayesian model averaging （BMA） ensemble approach. The simulations by the community microwave emission model （CMEM） cou- pled with the community land model version 4.5 （CLM4.5） over China's Mainland are con- ducted by the 24 configurations from four vegetation opacity parameterizations （VOPs）, three soil dielectric constant parameterizations （SDCPs）, and two soil roughness param- eterizations （SRPs）. Compared with the simple arithmetical averaging （SAA） method, the BMA reconstructions have a higher spatial correlation coefficient （larger than 0.99） than the C-band satellite observations of the advanced microwave scanning radiometer on the Earth observing system （AMSR-E） at the vertical polarization. Moreover, the BMA product performs the best among the ensemble members for all vegetation classes, with a mean root-mean-square difference （RMSD） of 4 K and a temporal correlation coefficient of 0.64.
文摘This paper proposes a hybrid Bayesian Network(BN)method for short-term forecasting of crude oil prices.The method performed is a hybrid,based on both the aspects of classification of influencing factors as well as the regression of the out-ofsample values.For the sake of performance comparison,several other hybrid methods have also been devised using the methods of Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC),Random Forest(RF),Support Vector Machine(SVM),neural networks(NNET)and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity(GARCH).The hybrid methodology is primarily reliant upon constructing the crude oil price forecast from the summation of its Intrinsic Mode Functions(IMF)and its residue,extracted by an Empirical Mode Decomposition(EMD)of the original crude price signal.The Volatility Index(VIX)as well as the Implied Oil Volatility Index(OVX)has been considered among the influencing parameters of the crude price forecast.The final set of influencing parameters were selected as the whole set of significant contributors detected by the methods of Bayesian Network,Quantile Regression with Lasso penalty(QRL),Bayesian Lasso(BLasso)and the Bayesian Ridge Regression(BRR).The performance of the proposed hybrid-BN method is reported for the three crude price benchmarks:West Texas Intermediate,Brent Crude and the OPEC Reference Basket.
文摘Localization of sensor nodes in the internet of underwater things(IoUT)is of considerable significance due to its various applications,such as navigation,data tagging,and detection of underwater objects.Therefore,in this paper,we propose a hybrid Bayesian multidimensional scaling(BMDS)based localization technique that can work on a fully hybrid IoUT network where the nodes can communicate using either optical,magnetic induction,and acoustic technologies.These communication technologies are already used for communication in the underwater environment;however,lacking localization solutions.Optical and magnetic induction communication achieves higher data rates for short communication.On the contrary,acoustic waves provide a low data rate for long-range underwater communication.The proposed method collectively uses optical,magnetic induction,and acoustic communication-based ranging to estimate the underwater sensor nodes’final locations.Moreover,we also analyze the proposed scheme by deriving the hybrid Cramer-Rao lower bound(H-CRLB).Simulation results provide a complete comparative analysis of the proposed method with the literature.
基金supported by the National Natural the Science Foundation of China(51971042,51901028)the Chongqing Academician Special Fund(cstc2020yszxjcyj X0001)+1 种基金the China Scholarship Council(CSC)Norwegian University of Science and Technology(NTNU)for their financial and technical support。
文摘Magnesium(Mg),being the lightest structural metal,holds immense potential for widespread applications in various fields.The development of high-performance and cost-effective Mg alloys is crucial to further advancing their commercial utilization.With the rapid advancement of machine learning(ML)technology in recent years,the“data-driven''approach for alloy design has provided new perspectives and opportunities for enhancing the performance of Mg alloys.This paper introduces a novel regression-based Bayesian optimization active learning model(RBOALM)for the development of high-performance Mg-Mn-based wrought alloys.RBOALM employs active learning to automatically explore optimal alloy compositions and process parameters within predefined ranges,facilitating the discovery of superior alloy combinations.This model further integrates pre-established regression models as surrogate functions in Bayesian optimization,significantly enhancing the precision of the design process.Leveraging RBOALM,several new high-performance alloys have been successfully designed and prepared.Notably,after mechanical property testing of the designed alloys,the Mg-2.1Zn-2.0Mn-0.5Sn-0.1Ca alloy demonstrates exceptional mechanical properties,including an ultimate tensile strength of 406 MPa,a yield strength of 287 MPa,and a 23%fracture elongation.Furthermore,the Mg-2.7Mn-0.5Al-0.1Ca alloy exhibits an ultimate tensile strength of 211 MPa,coupled with a remarkable 41%fracture elongation.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (6097400161104121)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (JUDCF11039)
文摘The Bayesian approach is considered as the most general formulation of the state estimation for dynamic systems. However, most of the existing Bayesian estimators of stochastic hybrid systems only focus on the Markov jump system, few liter- ature is related to the estimation problem of nonlinear stochastic hybrid systems with state dependent transitions. According to this problem, a new methodology which relaxes quite a restrictive as- sumption that the mode transition process must satisfy Markov properties is proposed. In this method, a general approach is presented to model the state dependent transitions, the state and output spaces are discreted into cell space which handles the nonlinearities and computationally intensive problem offline. Then maximum a posterior estimation is obtained by using the Bayesian theory. The efficacy of the estimator is illustrated by a simulated example .
基金Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province of China(No.2016A030307019)the Higher Education Colleges and Universities Innovation Strong School Project of Guangdong Province,China(No.2016KTSCX153)
文摘The Bayesian sampling plans for exponential distributions are studied based on type-Ⅱ hybrid censored samples. The optimal Bayesian sampling plan is derived under a general loss function which includes the sampling cost, time-consuming cost, salvage value,and decision loss. It is employed to determine the Bayes risk and the corresponding optimal sampling plan. An explicit expression of the Bayes risk is derived. Furthermore,for the conjugate prior distribution,the closed-form formula of the Bayes decision rule can be obtained under either the linear or quadratic decision loss.
