针对光伏发电功率具有较强的波动性、间歇性输出,光伏功率预测精度较低,且难于给出具体预测时间长度等问题,提出了一种长相关随机模型分数阶布朗运动(fractional Brownian motion,FBM),用于光伏功率预测。首先,采用重标极差法计算长相关...针对光伏发电功率具有较强的波动性、间歇性输出,光伏功率预测精度较低,且难于给出具体预测时间长度等问题,提出了一种长相关随机模型分数阶布朗运动(fractional Brownian motion,FBM),用于光伏功率预测。首先,采用重标极差法计算长相关(long-range dependence,LRD)参数-Hurst指数,Hurst指数用于判断光伏功率数据是否满足长相关性,并通过最大李雅普诺夫指数(Lyapunov)计算出模型最大可预测时间尺度;其次,采用随机微分法建立FBM光伏功率预测模型,同时估计FBM预测模型参数值;最后,选取澳大利亚沙漠知识太阳能中心(Desert Knowledge Australia Solar Center,DKASC)、美国国家可再生能源实验室(National Renewable Energy Laboratory,NREL)以及北京国能日新科技有限公司的光伏功率数据集,从不同的地理环境、不同的气候特征、不同的规模大小电站进行验证。仿真结果表明,该模型较传统的Kalman、LSTM模型具有更高的预测精度,可为光伏并网的稳定和安全运行提供更好的理论支持,对电网调度部门具有较高的参考价值。展开更多
This paper considers the compound Poisson risk model perturbed by Brownian motion with variable premium and dependence between claims amounts and inter-claim times via Spearman copula. It is assumed that the insurance...This paper considers the compound Poisson risk model perturbed by Brownian motion with variable premium and dependence between claims amounts and inter-claim times via Spearman copula. It is assumed that the insurance company’s portfolio is governed by two classes of policyholders. On the one hand, the first class where the amount of claims is high, and on the other hand, the second class where the amount of claims is low, this difference in claim amounts has significant implications for the insurance company’s pricing and risk management strategies. When policyholders are in the first class, they pay an insurance premium of a constant amount c<sub>1</sub> and when they are in the second class, the premium paid is a constant amount c<sub>2</sub> such that c<sub>1 </sub>> c<sub>2</sub>. The nature of claims (low or high) is measured via random thresholds . The study in this work will focus on the determination of the integro-differential equations satisfied by Gerber-Shiu functions and their Laplace transforms in the risk model perturbed by Brownian motion with variable premium and dependence between claims amounts and inter-claim times via Spearman copula. .展开更多
This article addresses the issues of falling into local optima and insufficient exploration capability in the Arithmetic Optimization Algorithm (AOA), proposing an improved Arithmetic Optimization Algorithm with a mul...This article addresses the issues of falling into local optima and insufficient exploration capability in the Arithmetic Optimization Algorithm (AOA), proposing an improved Arithmetic Optimization Algorithm with a multi-strategy mechanism (BSFAOA). This algorithm introduces three strategies within the standard AOA framework: an adaptive balance factor SMOA based on sine functions, a search strategy combining Spiral Search and Brownian Motion, and a hybrid perturbation strategy based on Whale Fall Mechanism and Polynomial Differential Learning. The BSFAOA algorithm is analyzed in depth on the well-known 23 benchmark functions, CEC2019 test functions, and four real optimization problems. The experimental results demonstrate that the BSFAOA algorithm can better balance the exploration and exploitation capabilities, significantly enhancing the stability, convergence mode, and search efficiency of the AOA algorithm.展开更多
文摘针对光伏发电功率具有较强的波动性、间歇性输出,光伏功率预测精度较低,且难于给出具体预测时间长度等问题,提出了一种长相关随机模型分数阶布朗运动(fractional Brownian motion,FBM),用于光伏功率预测。首先,采用重标极差法计算长相关(long-range dependence,LRD)参数-Hurst指数,Hurst指数用于判断光伏功率数据是否满足长相关性,并通过最大李雅普诺夫指数(Lyapunov)计算出模型最大可预测时间尺度;其次,采用随机微分法建立FBM光伏功率预测模型,同时估计FBM预测模型参数值;最后,选取澳大利亚沙漠知识太阳能中心(Desert Knowledge Australia Solar Center,DKASC)、美国国家可再生能源实验室(National Renewable Energy Laboratory,NREL)以及北京国能日新科技有限公司的光伏功率数据集,从不同的地理环境、不同的气候特征、不同的规模大小电站进行验证。仿真结果表明,该模型较传统的Kalman、LSTM模型具有更高的预测精度,可为光伏并网的稳定和安全运行提供更好的理论支持,对电网调度部门具有较高的参考价值。
文摘This paper considers the compound Poisson risk model perturbed by Brownian motion with variable premium and dependence between claims amounts and inter-claim times via Spearman copula. It is assumed that the insurance company’s portfolio is governed by two classes of policyholders. On the one hand, the first class where the amount of claims is high, and on the other hand, the second class where the amount of claims is low, this difference in claim amounts has significant implications for the insurance company’s pricing and risk management strategies. When policyholders are in the first class, they pay an insurance premium of a constant amount c<sub>1</sub> and when they are in the second class, the premium paid is a constant amount c<sub>2</sub> such that c<sub>1 </sub>> c<sub>2</sub>. The nature of claims (low or high) is measured via random thresholds . The study in this work will focus on the determination of the integro-differential equations satisfied by Gerber-Shiu functions and their Laplace transforms in the risk model perturbed by Brownian motion with variable premium and dependence between claims amounts and inter-claim times via Spearman copula. .
文摘This article addresses the issues of falling into local optima and insufficient exploration capability in the Arithmetic Optimization Algorithm (AOA), proposing an improved Arithmetic Optimization Algorithm with a multi-strategy mechanism (BSFAOA). This algorithm introduces three strategies within the standard AOA framework: an adaptive balance factor SMOA based on sine functions, a search strategy combining Spiral Search and Brownian Motion, and a hybrid perturbation strategy based on Whale Fall Mechanism and Polynomial Differential Learning. The BSFAOA algorithm is analyzed in depth on the well-known 23 benchmark functions, CEC2019 test functions, and four real optimization problems. The experimental results demonstrate that the BSFAOA algorithm can better balance the exploration and exploitation capabilities, significantly enhancing the stability, convergence mode, and search efficiency of the AOA algorithm.
