Does country risk impact the banking sectors’non‑performing loans?Evidence from BRICS emerging economies

This study aims to fill the gap in the literature by specifically investigating the impact of country risk on the credit risk of the banking sectors operating in Brazil,Russia,India,China,and South Africa(BRICS),emerging countries.More specifically,we explore whether the country-specific risks,namely financial,economic,and political risks significantly impact the BRICS banking sectors’non-performing loans and also probe which risk has the most outstanding effect on credit risk.To do so,we perform panel data analysis using the quantile estimation approach covering the period 2004–2020.The empirical results reveal that the country risk significantly leads to increasing the banking sector’s credit risk and this effect is prominent in the banking sector of countries with a higher degree of non-performing loans(Q.25=−0.105,Q.50=−0.131,Q.75=−0.153,Q.95=−0.175).Furthermore,the results underscore that an emerging country’s political,economic,and financial instabilities are strongly associated with increasing the banking sector’s credit risk and a rise in political risk in particular has the most positive prominent impact on the banking sector of countries with a higher degree of non-performing loans(Q.25=−0.122,Q.50=−0.141,Q.75=−0.163,Q.95=−0.172).Moreover,the results suggest that,in addition to the banking sectorspecific determinants,credit risk is significantly impacted by the financial market development,lending interest rate,and global risk.The results are robust and have significant policy suggestions for many policymakers,bank executives,researchers,and analysts.

Banking Sector Development and Agricultural Productivity in Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC)

There is high pressure for investment capital and financial services for agricultural activities necessary for poverty reduction,economic growth,sustainable development and food security.This study investigated the long-term causation between banking sector development and agricultural productivity in the six Central African Economic and Monetary Community(CEMAC)states from 1990 to 2018,hypothesizing no causation between banking sector and agriculture output.With the autoregressive distributed lag(ARDL)model and vector error correction model(VECM),the study demonstrates that banking sector and agricultural productivity in the CEMAC region are related.It implies long-run relationship exists between banking sector and agricultural productivity in the CEMAC zone.The results reveal that bidirectional causality exists between banking sector and agricultural productivity in the CEMAC region.This is insinuating that in the CEMAC region,agricultural productivity and banking sector development are operating in mutualism.The findings indicate the reason to establish the banking sector using proper macroeconomic,legal and regulatory policies to boost agricultural productivity by creating incentive systems that channel more credit to agricultural investment and promoting the banking system.

IT Project Environment Factors Affecting Requirements Analysis in Service Provisioning for the Greek Banking Sector

The research undertaken within a Greek IT organisation specialising in service provisioning to the Greek banking sector discusses the various aspects of a number of identified environment factors within five distinct IT projects which affect the requirements analysis phase. Project Management (PMBOK? Guide 4th ed.), IT Service Management (ITIL? v3) and Business Analysis (BABOK? Guide 2.0) framework practices applied to the various IT projects are highlighted in regard to improved activity execution. Project issue management, stakeholder management, time management, resources management, communication management and risk management aspects are presented. These are then linked to the identified environment factors so as to indicate the adaptability of an IT support team to changing environment factors in IT project environments and how the fulfilment of these factors can significantly contribute to effective requirements analysis and enhance the requirements management cycle.

HongKong's New Policy on Banking Sector

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority(HKMA)recently published a package of policy initiativesto reform the local banking market.First of the two prominent features of thisreform package concerns the deregulation of theremaining interest rate ceilings.The first phase of deregulation,scheduled totake place on July 1,2000,will see the

收入分配差距与银行信用风险累积——基于企业部门杠杆的视角

改善收入分配状况、推进共同富裕是否有助于防范化解金融风险?立足于企业部门杠杆视角,构建包含家庭异质性、企业债务违约和银行破产特质的实际经济周期(RBC)模型,研究居民收入分配差距对银行信用风险的影响。理论模型预测显示,收入分配差距扩大会提高企业部门杠杆率,增加银行信用风险累积。其作用机制在于,收入分配差距扩大导致消费投资比下降,为企业部门加杠杆创造条件,但消费率和杠杆率的反向变动会造成企业实际收益率降低和违约风险上升,银行贷款信用风险敞口扩大。基于中国银行业数据的实证分析提供了上述理论推演成立的经验证据与微观基础。此外,本文还发现收入分配差距的影响存在地区性差异。上述结论隐含共同富裕目标的实现有利于守住不发生系统性风险底线,两个重大目标的内在逻辑自洽一致。

中国数字金融研究进展

数字金融是数字经济时代金融与科技深度融合的革命性产物,众多学者对数字金融的发展所产生的经济效应进行研究,论文采用文献梳理法对近两年来有关数字金融的文献进行梳理总结,发现数字金融对经济活动的影响是多维度的,主要涉及企业部门、银行部门、家庭部门和宏观经济等方面的研究。在对企业部门的影响方面,数字金融的发展解决了企业融资约束问题,提高了企业的全要素生产率、财务绩效和创新水平,推动企业实现高质量发展。在对银行部门的影响方面,数字金融的发展提高了银行的经营效率、盈利能力和创新水平,促使银行更好地服务于实体经济。在对家庭部门的影响方面,数字金融提升了家庭金融资产组合的配置效率,提高了居民收入水平和消费水平,降低了农村家庭的贫困程度。在对农业部门的影响方面,数字金融推动了农村经济的高质量发展、提升了农村居民的收入水平和消费水平。在对宏观经济的影响方面,数字金融促进了产业结构升级、提高了货币政策的有效性,推动经济高质量发展。

Rationale for Banking Regulation

Banking is one of the most heavily regulated sectors across the world. Generally,the public suggests that banks are vital to economic stability. In addition, the development and efficiency of the banking system are significant contributors to overall economic growth. In addition, the article will provide an analysis of the key underlying reasons for the range of regulations that face the banking sector. Last but not the least, the article will concentrate on the four main considerations of the traditional rationale for banking regulation and supervision.

Some Stylized Facts of Short-Term Stock Prices of Selected Nigerian Banks

This paper examines presence of some stylized facts of short-term stock prices in the banking sector of the Nigerian Stock Market (NSM). Non-normality, lack of autocorrelation in the returns at first lag and significant positive autocorrelation in higher magnitude returns, widely studied in other markets, are investigated using daily closing stock prices of the four major Nigerian banks (Access, First, Guaranty Trust and United Bank for Africa (UBA)), from 2001 to 2013;encompassing periods of different financial scenarios. Jarque-Bera (JB), Doonik-Hansen, Kolmogrov-Smirnov and Ljung-Box (Q) test statistics are applied. Our findings reveal that the four banks stocks behave slightly different, but generally possess the stylized facts found in other markets. Observed is that, while the distributions of the returns for two of these banks (First and UBA) are approximately symmetric and leptokurtic;those of Access and Guaranty Trust banks are significantly non-symmetric and leptokurtic, thus non-normally distributed. Also established is that, while autocorrelation functions of daily returns are either negative or zero, those of both absolute returns and the squared returns are mostly positive. The autocorrelations of absolute returns are found to be predominantly positive and more persistent than those of the squared returns;indicating volatility clustering. Consequently, we conclude that the short-term stock prices of these banks behave like those of other markets. Some implications of the results for financial investment and stock market behaviour in the banking sector of NSM are discussed.

中国银行业开放、融资方式选择与民营企业出口

本文以不断开放的金融服务业为契机,从银行信贷和商业信贷两种融资方式选择的视角,研究中国银行业开放如何影响民营企业出口。首先,本文在Manova(2013)理论模型的基础上,将企业的融资方式进行区分,从理论上证明了银行业的开放可以促使生产率较高的民营企业使用银行信贷替代商业信贷,从而缓解企业面临的融资约束,促进出口增长。在实证研究方面,本文利用中国入世承诺中银行业开放的地区时间表,结合企业所有制特征构造三重差分模型。研究发现:相对于国有企业,银行业开放政策对于民营企业的出口影响更大,可以显著提高民营企业的出口概率和规模,促进民营企业出口产品多样性与市场多元化。然而,中国银行业开放对民营出口的促进作用存在“撇脂”效应。

银行竞争有助于化解系统性风险吗——基于僵尸企业贷款、同业业务及私人部门存款渠道

银行业的稳定直接关系到新发展格局下中国金融业全局安全。本文从僵尸企业贷款、同业业务及私人部门存款视角对银行竞争对银行系统性风险的影响进行了理论诠释,在此基础上,选取2011—2020年中国32家A股上市银行季度数据,采用面板回归模型进行实证分析。研究发现,银行竞争会通过缩减僵尸企业贷款规模、同业业务规模及降低私人部门存款占比而降低不良贷款率和流动性错配水平并提升资本充足率,由此控制了银行系统性风险,但这种控制作用仅存在于非国有银行部门。进一步研究发现,银行数字化转型力度提高与实施存款保险制度能够增强银行竞争对银行系统性风险的抑制作用,但经济政策不确定性程度上升会减弱银行竞争对银行系统性风险的抑制作用。该成果为“竞争-稳定”理论提供了证据支持,并对防范和化解中国银行业系统性风险具有一定政策价值。

论当前国内对现代货币理论的误解

现代货币理论已然是一股不可忽视的经济思想浪潮,然而国内学界对它仍存在着多种误解。以下命题澄清了国内流行的对现代货币理论的六种误解:(1)现代货币理论不等于一种政策主张,而是一个系统的理论体系;(2)现代货币理论不认为政府可以无限制地支出,政府支出会面临资源、环境、生产能力、通货膨胀、汇率波动等多方面限制;(3)现代货币理论不等于总需求微调政策,强调宏观经济政策应当考虑经济的结构问题;(4)现代货币理论不主张废除独立的中央银行制度;(5)现代货币理论不等于财政赤字货币化,财政赤字货币化这一概念是对货币金融系统的错误认识;(6)现代货币理论的三部门恒等式是一种核算关系,不代表一种因果联系。在现代货币理论传播中存在着两股相互对抗的历史趋势:一方面,重构财政政策的诉求推动了对现代货币理论的持续关注;另一方面,主流经济学主导的理论诠释生成了对现代货币理论的误解。这两股历史趋势是误解长期存在的科学社会学根源。

房企债务风险跨部门传递与政策应对——基于双重金融摩擦的DSGE模型

通过构建一个包含双重金融摩擦的NK-DSGE模型,量化分析房企债务违约风险跨部门传递的经济后果、作用机制以及政策应对效果。研究发现,房企债务违约及由此引发的风险跨部门传递将导致经济中出现严重的信贷紧缩与产出衰退,银行部门是房企债务违约冲击传递至实体经济的重要桥梁,其中存贷溢价摩擦起到放大作用。在大规模债务违约触发银行危机的情况下,针对银行资本充足率的逆周期宏观审慎政策更为有效,而货币政策在应对其他常见经济金融冲击时效果更好。针对不同的风险冲击类型,单项政策及政策组合的应对效果存在差异。因此,应对政策的选择与搭配使用需考虑经济体面临的冲击类型。

Analysis of financial development and open innovation oriented fintech potential for emerging economies using an integrated decision‑making approach of MF‑X‑DMA and golden cut bipolar q‑ROFSs

The purpose of the paper is to identify the factors of financial development that have the greatest impact on open innovation in 7 emerging countries.The analysis was performed featuring the MF-X-DMA method,as well as its further verification for auto-correlation and heteroscedasticity.The time period covers years from 2002 to 2020.The article states that the main indicators to improve financial development should enhance the process of bank lending and equity market development.An important area is the development of competition by providing equal access to information to all market participants in a continuously refining technical infrastructure.Regression analysis with the MF-X-DMA method confirms the statistical significance of this influ-ence.The article fills the knowledge gap into the link between open innovations and the relatively low capitalization of the modern emerging countries’financial market,low liquidity in small cap stocks at the financial market and concentration of the banking sector,as well as risks arising in the process of globalization.Another analysis has also been conducted by generating a novel fuzzy decision-making model.In the first stage,the determinants of open innovation-based fintech potential are weighted for the emerging economies.For this purpose,M-SWARA methodology is taken into consideration based on bipolar q-ROFSs and golden cut.The second stage of the analysis includes evaluating the emerging economies with the determinants of open innovation-based fintech potential.In this context,emerging seven countries are examined with ELECTRE methodology.It found the most significant factor is the open innovation-based fintech potential.