The relationship between credit expansion and banking crises is complex and cannot be fully explained by total credit alone.A systematic analysis of the relationship between the amount and structure of total credit an...The relationship between credit expansion and banking crises is complex and cannot be fully explained by total credit alone.A systematic analysis of the relationship between the amount and structure of total credit and banking crises is important for an objective prediction of the influence of potential financial risks.This paper,drawing on data from 15 selected countries,delves into the power of credit indicators in the early warning of banking crises from the perspectives of industrial structure,sector structure,and term structure of credit.Various machine learning methods were used,including Logistic Regression,Random Forest,Decision Tree,Support Vector Machine(SVM),Bagging,and Boosting models.The empirical findings indicate that credit expansion plays a crucial role in triggering banking crises.However,total credit is better suited for the early warning of short-term banking crises,whereas credit structure is more useful for the early warning of long-term banking crises.Moreover,in an early warning system,identifying key early warning indicators is more meaningful than merely increasing the number of indicators.Machine learning can somewhat enhance the early warning power,but it may not always be robust.Therefore,more attention should be paid to potential systemic banking crises resulting from an imbalance in credit structure while regulating the total credit threshold.展开更多
After the outbreak of the international financial crisis,the People’s Bank of China,based on traditional monetary policy tools,launched a series of structural monetary policy tools such as standing lending facility(S...After the outbreak of the international financial crisis,the People’s Bank of China,based on traditional monetary policy tools,launched a series of structural monetary policy tools such as standing lending facility(SLF),medium-term lending facility(MLF),and pledged supplementary lending(PSL)and targeted at liquidity via the commercial banking system.In order to test the credit transmission effect of structured monetary policy,this paper empirically analyzes the relationship between structured monetary policy,bank liquidity and bank credit based on the VAR model.The research shows that the implementation of structured monetary policy reduces the liquidity of commercial banks in the short term and increases in loans to small or micro enterprises and agriculture-related loans,these policies have produced significant short-term effects on credit transmission in steady of long-term effects.Thus,a series of supporting measures are needed to fully exert the effects of structural monetary policy.展开更多
This paper proposes a wavelet based receiver structure for frequency-flat time-varying Rayleigh channels, consisting of a receiver front-end followed by a Maximum A-Posteriori (MAP) detector. Discretization of the rec...This paper proposes a wavelet based receiver structure for frequency-flat time-varying Rayleigh channels, consisting of a receiver front-end followed by a Maximum A-Posteriori (MAP) detector. Discretization of the received continuous time signal using filter banks is an essential stage in the front-end part, where the Fast Haar Transform (FHT) is used to reduce complexity. Analysis of our receiver over slow-fading channels shows that it is optimal for certain modulation schemes. By comparison with literature, it is shown that over such channels our receiver can achieve optimal performance for Time-Orthogonal modulation. Computed and Monte-Carlo simulated performance results over fast time-varying Rayleigh fading channels show that with Minimum Shift Keying (MSK), our receiver using four basis functions (filters) lowers the error floor by more than one order of magnitude with respect to other techniques of comparable complexity. Orthogonal Frequency Shift Keying (FSK) can achieve the same performance as Time-Orthogonal modulation for the slow-fading case, but suffers some degradation over fast-fading channels where it exhibits an error floor. Compared to MSK, however, Orthogonal FSK provides better performance.展开更多
基金funded by the Chongqing Social Sciences Planning Project (2023NDQN22)the Social Sciences and Philosophy Project of the Chongqing Municipal Education Commission (23SKGH097)the Youth Program of Science and Technology Research of Chongqing Municipal Education Commission (KJQN202300545)。
文摘The relationship between credit expansion and banking crises is complex and cannot be fully explained by total credit alone.A systematic analysis of the relationship between the amount and structure of total credit and banking crises is important for an objective prediction of the influence of potential financial risks.This paper,drawing on data from 15 selected countries,delves into the power of credit indicators in the early warning of banking crises from the perspectives of industrial structure,sector structure,and term structure of credit.Various machine learning methods were used,including Logistic Regression,Random Forest,Decision Tree,Support Vector Machine(SVM),Bagging,and Boosting models.The empirical findings indicate that credit expansion plays a crucial role in triggering banking crises.However,total credit is better suited for the early warning of short-term banking crises,whereas credit structure is more useful for the early warning of long-term banking crises.Moreover,in an early warning system,identifying key early warning indicators is more meaningful than merely increasing the number of indicators.Machine learning can somewhat enhance the early warning power,but it may not always be robust.Therefore,more attention should be paid to potential systemic banking crises resulting from an imbalance in credit structure while regulating the total credit threshold.
文摘After the outbreak of the international financial crisis,the People’s Bank of China,based on traditional monetary policy tools,launched a series of structural monetary policy tools such as standing lending facility(SLF),medium-term lending facility(MLF),and pledged supplementary lending(PSL)and targeted at liquidity via the commercial banking system.In order to test the credit transmission effect of structured monetary policy,this paper empirically analyzes the relationship between structured monetary policy,bank liquidity and bank credit based on the VAR model.The research shows that the implementation of structured monetary policy reduces the liquidity of commercial banks in the short term and increases in loans to small or micro enterprises and agriculture-related loans,these policies have produced significant short-term effects on credit transmission in steady of long-term effects.Thus,a series of supporting measures are needed to fully exert the effects of structural monetary policy.
文摘This paper proposes a wavelet based receiver structure for frequency-flat time-varying Rayleigh channels, consisting of a receiver front-end followed by a Maximum A-Posteriori (MAP) detector. Discretization of the received continuous time signal using filter banks is an essential stage in the front-end part, where the Fast Haar Transform (FHT) is used to reduce complexity. Analysis of our receiver over slow-fading channels shows that it is optimal for certain modulation schemes. By comparison with literature, it is shown that over such channels our receiver can achieve optimal performance for Time-Orthogonal modulation. Computed and Monte-Carlo simulated performance results over fast time-varying Rayleigh fading channels show that with Minimum Shift Keying (MSK), our receiver using four basis functions (filters) lowers the error floor by more than one order of magnitude with respect to other techniques of comparable complexity. Orthogonal Frequency Shift Keying (FSK) can achieve the same performance as Time-Orthogonal modulation for the slow-fading case, but suffers some degradation over fast-fading channels where it exhibits an error floor. Compared to MSK, however, Orthogonal FSK provides better performance.
