A Relocation-based Initialization Scheme to Improve Track-forecasting of Tropical Cyclones

A relocation procedure to initialize tropical cyclones was developed to improve the representation of the initial conditions and the track forecast for Panasonic Weather Solutions Tropical Operational Forecasts. This scheme separates the vortex perturbation and environment field from the first guess, then relocates the initial vortex perturbations to Lhe observed position by merging them with the environment field. The relationships of wind vector components with stream function and velocity potential are used for separating the vortex disturbance from first guess. For the separation of scalars, a low-pass Barnes filter is employed. The irregular-shaped relocation area corresponding to the specific initial conditions is determined by mapping the edge of the vortex radius in 36 directions.Then, the non-vortex perturbations in the relocation area are removed by a two-pass Barnes filter to retain the vortex perturbations, while the variable fields outside the perimeter of the modified vortex are kept ide.ntical to the original first guess. The potential impacts of this scheme on track forecasts were examined for three hurricane cases in the 2011-12 hurricane season. The experimental results demonstrate that the initialization scheme is able to effectively separate the vortex field from the environment field and maintain a relatively balanced and accurate relocated first guess. As the initial track error is reduced, the following track forecasts are considerably improved. The 72-h average track forecast error was redu,~ed by 32.6% for the cold-start cases, and by 38.4% when using the full-cycling data assimilation because of the accumulatedL improvements from the initialization scheme.

一次短时暴雨的中尺度系统活动及其结构特征分析(英文)

By using the rainfall data in the regional automatic station,FY-2E satellite data,NCEP reanalysis data,the evolution features and the structure characteristics of a meso-scale convective system(MCS) which happened on May 6 in 2010 in Loudi City of Hunan Province were analyzed.The results showed that MCS was the important influence system for the generation and development of strong precipitation.The equivalent blackbody brightness temperature(TBB) field of satellite inversion could directly reflect the convective activity of cumulus,the precipitation distribution and the intensity characteristics in the rainstorm process.TBB low value belt had the good corresponding relationship with the rainstorm falling zone.The disturbance flow field and the height field which passed Barnes band-pass wave filtering represented that there existed the obvious high-layer anticyclonic circulation and the low-layer cyclonic circulation near the rainstorm zone.The divergence in the high layer and the convergence in the low layer enhanced the occurrence and development of MCS.In addition,the disturbance temperature field revealed the main source of energy which the occurrence and development of strong convective weather needed.