Bayesian Non-Parametric Mixture Model with Application to Modeling Biological Markers

The effect of treatment on patient’s outcome can easily be determined through the impact of the treatment on biological events. Observing the treatment for patients for a certain period of time can help in determining whether there is any change in the biomarker of the patient. It is important to study how the biomarker changes due to treatment and whether for different individuals located in separate centers can be clustered together since they might have different distributions. The study is motivated by a Bayesian non-parametric mixture model, which is more flexible when compared to the Bayesian Parametric models and is capable of borrowing information across different centers allowing them to be grouped together. To this end, this research modeled Biological markers taking into consideration the Surrogate markers. The study employed the nested Dirichlet process prior, which is easily peaceable on different distributions for several centers, with centers from the same Dirichlet process component clustered automatically together. The study sampled from the posterior by use of Markov chain Monte carol algorithm. The model is illustrated using a simulation study to see how it performs on simulated data. Clearly, from the simulation study it was clear that, the model was capable of clustering data into different clusters.

A Non-Parametric Scheme for Identifying Data Characteristic Based on Curve Similarity Matching

For accurately identifying the distribution charac-teristic of Gaussian-like noises in unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV)state estimation,this paper proposes a non-parametric scheme based on curve similarity matching.In the framework of the pro-posed scheme,a Parzen window(kernel density estimation,KDE)method on sliding window technology is applied for roughly esti-mating the sample probability density,a precise data probability density function(PDF)model is constructed with the least square method on K-fold cross validation,and the testing result based on evaluation method is obtained based on some data characteristic analyses of curve shape,abruptness and symmetry.Some com-parison simulations with classical methods and UAV flight exper-iment shows that the proposed scheme has higher recognition accuracy than classical methods for some kinds of Gaussian-like data,which provides better reference for the design of Kalman filter(KF)in complex water environment.

Comparison of Type I Error Rates of Siegel-Tukey and Savage Tests among Non-Parametric Tests

This study aimed to examine the performance of the Siegel-Tukey and Savage tests on data sets with heterogeneous variances. The analysis, considering Normal, Platykurtic, and Skewed distributions and a standard deviation ratio of 1, was conducted for both small and large sample sizes. For small sample sizes, two main categories were established: equal and different sample sizes. Analyses were performed using Monte Carlo simulations with 20,000 repetitions for each scenario, and the simulations were evaluated using SAS software. For small sample sizes, the I. type error rate of the Siegel-Tukey test generally ranged from 0.045 to 0.055, while the I. type error rate of the Savage test was observed to range from 0.016 to 0.041. Similar trends were observed for Platykurtic and Skewed distributions. In scenarios with different sample sizes, the Savage test generally exhibited lower I. type error rates. For large sample sizes, two main categories were established: equal and different sample sizes. For large sample sizes, the I. type error rate of the Siegel-Tukey test ranged from 0.047 to 0.052, while the I. type error rate of the Savage test ranged from 0.043 to 0.051. In cases of equal sample sizes, both tests generally had lower error rates, with the Savage test providing more consistent results for large sample sizes. In conclusion, it was determined that the Savage test provides lower I. type error rates for small sample sizes and that both tests have similar error rates for large sample sizes. These findings suggest that the Savage test could be a more reliable option when analyzing variance differences.

A non-parametric indicator Kriging method for generating coastal sediment type map

Coastal sediment type map has been widely used in marine economic and engineering activities, but the traditional mapping methods had some limitations due to their intrinsic assumption or subjectivity. In this paper, a non-parametric indicator Kriging method has been proposed for generating coastal sediment map. The method can effectively avoid mapping subjectivity, has no special requirements for the sample data to meet second-order stationary or normal distribution, and can also provide useful information on the quantitative evaluation of mapping uncertainty. The application of the method in the southern sea area of Lianyungang showed that much more convincing mapping results could be obtained compared with the traditional methods such as IDW, Kriging and Voronoi diagram under the same condition, so the proposed method was applicable with great utilization value.

环境激励下的Bayesian SFFT模态参数识别法及不确定性量化研究

针对传统Bayesian模态参数识别方法存在识别结果不确定性和量化指标单一的问题,提出了贝叶斯缩放快速傅里叶变换(Bayesian scaled fast Fourier transform,Bayesian SFFT)模态参数识别法,通过求解四维数值的优化,得到模态参数的最佳估值,并采用蒙特卡罗抽样的方法得到后验协方差矩阵和信息熵,实现对识别结果进行双重不确定性量化的目的。最后,通过数值模拟与工程应用验证了该方法的有效性,并研究了频带宽度系数k对识别结果的影响以及对比了变异系数与信息熵的量化效果。结果表明,将频带宽度系数k限制在7~9之间能够确保误差与不确定性的平衡;在阻尼比识别结果的量化中,信息熵的量化效果优于变异系数的量化效果。

A Short-Term Traffic Flow Forecasting Method Based on a Three-Layer K-Nearest Neighbor Non-Parametric Regression Algorithm

Short-term traffic flow is one of the core technologies to realize traffic flow guidance. In this article, in view of the characteristics that the traffic flow changes repeatedly, a short-term traffic flow forecasting method based on a three-layer K-nearest neighbor non-parametric regression algorithm is proposed. Specifically, two screening layers based on shape similarity were introduced in K-nearest neighbor non-parametric regression method, and the forecasting results were output using the weighted averaging on the reciprocal values of the shape similarity distances and the most-similar-point distance adjustment method. According to the experimental results, the proposed algorithm has improved the predictive ability of the traditional K-nearest neighbor non-parametric regression method, and greatly enhanced the accuracy and real-time performance of short-term traffic flow forecasting.

An Improved Non-Parametric Method for Multiple Moving Objects Detection in the Markov Random Field

Detecting moving objects in the stationary background is an important problem in visual surveillance systems.However,the traditional background subtraction method fails when the background is not completely stationary and involves certain dynamic changes.In this paper,according to the basic steps of the background subtraction method,a novel non-parametric moving object detection method is proposed based on an improved ant colony algorithm by using the Markov random field.Concretely,the contributions are as follows:1)A new nonparametric strategy is utilized to model the background,based on an improved kernel density estimation;this approach uses an adaptive bandwidth,and the fused features combine the colours,gradients and positions.2)A Markov random field method based on this adaptive background model via the constraint of the spatial context is proposed to extract objects.3)The posterior function is maximized efficiently by using an improved ant colony system algorithm.Extensive experiments show that the proposed method demonstrates a better performance than many existing state-of-the-art methods.

Non-parametric machine learning methods for interpolation of spatially varying non-stationary and non-Gaussian geotechnical properties

Spatial interpolation has been frequently encountered in earth sciences and engineering.A reasonable appraisal of subsurface heterogeneity plays a significant role in planning,risk assessment and decision making for geotechnical practice.Geostatistics is commonly used to interpolate spatially varying properties at un-sampled locations from scatter measurements.However,successful application of classic geostatistical models requires prior characterization of spatial auto-correlation structures,which poses a great challenge for unexperienced engineers,particularly when only limited measurements are available.Data-driven machine learning methods,such as radial basis function network(RBFN),require minimal human intervention and provide effective alternatives for spatial interpolation of non-stationary and non-Gaussian data,particularly when measurements are sparse.Conventional RBFN,however,is direction independent(i.e.isotropic)and cannot quantify prediction uncertainty in spatial interpolation.In this study,an ensemble RBFN method is proposed that not only allows geotechnical anisotropy to be properly incorporated,but also quantifies uncertainty in spatial interpolation.The proposed method is illustrated using numerical examples of cone penetration test(CPT)data,which involve interpolation of a 2D CPT cross-section from limited continuous 1D CPT soundings in the vertical direction.In addition,a comparative study is performed to benchmark the proposed ensemble RBFN with two other non-parametric data-driven approaches,namely,Multiple Point Statistics(MPS)and Bayesian Compressive Sensing(BCS).The results reveal that the proposed ensemble RBFN provides a better estimation of spatial patterns and associated prediction uncertainty at un-sampled locations when a reasonable amount of data is available as input.Moreover,the prediction accuracy of all the three methods improves as the number of measurements increases,and vice versa.It is also found that BCS prediction is less sensitive to the number of measurement data and outperforms RBFN and MPS when only limited point observations are available.

Accelerated design of high-performance Mg-Mn-based magnesium alloys based on novel bayesian optimization

Magnesium(Mg),being the lightest structural metal,holds immense potential for widespread applications in various fields.The development of high-performance and cost-effective Mg alloys is crucial to further advancing their commercial utilization.With the rapid advancement of machine learning(ML)technology in recent years,the“data-driven''approach for alloy design has provided new perspectives and opportunities for enhancing the performance of Mg alloys.This paper introduces a novel regression-based Bayesian optimization active learning model(RBOALM)for the development of high-performance Mg-Mn-based wrought alloys.RBOALM employs active learning to automatically explore optimal alloy compositions and process parameters within predefined ranges,facilitating the discovery of superior alloy combinations.This model further integrates pre-established regression models as surrogate functions in Bayesian optimization,significantly enhancing the precision of the design process.Leveraging RBOALM,several new high-performance alloys have been successfully designed and prepared.Notably,after mechanical property testing of the designed alloys,the Mg-2.1Zn-2.0Mn-0.5Sn-0.1Ca alloy demonstrates exceptional mechanical properties,including an ultimate tensile strength of 406 MPa,a yield strength of 287 MPa,and a 23%fracture elongation.Furthermore,the Mg-2.7Mn-0.5Al-0.1Ca alloy exhibits an ultimate tensile strength of 211 MPa,coupled with a remarkable 41%fracture elongation.

NON-PARAMETRIC TOPIC MODEL FOR DISCOVERING GEOGRAPHICAL TOPIC VARIATIONS

This paper presents a non-parametric topic model that captures not only the latent topics in text collections, but also how the topics change over space. Unlike other recent work that relies on either Gaussian assumptions or discretization of locations, here topics are associated with a distance dependent Chinese Restaurant Process(ddC RP), and for each document, the observed words are influenced by the document's GPS-tag. Our model allows both unbound number and flexible distribution of the geographical variations of the topics' content. We develop a Gibbs sampler for the proposal, and compare it with existing models on a real data set basis.

Non-parametric camera calibration method using single-axis rotational target

The ability to build an imaging process is crucial to vision measurement.The non-parametric imaging model describes an imaging process as a pixel cluster,in which each pixel is related to a spatial ray originated from an object point.However,a non-parametric model requires a sophisticated calculation process or high-cost devices to obtain a massive quantity of parameters.These disadvantages limit the application of camera models.Therefore,we propose a novel camera model calibration method based on a single-axis rotational target.The rotational vision target offers 3D control points with no need for detailed information of poses of the rotational target.Radial basis function(RBF)network is introduced to map 3D coordinates to 2D image coordinates.We subsequently derive the optimization formulization of imaging model parameters and compute the parameter from the given control points.The model is extended to adapt the stereo camera that is widely used in vision measurement.Experiments have been done to evaluate the performance of the proposed camera calibration method.The results show that the proposed method has superiority in accuracy and effectiveness in comparison with the traditional methods.

Exponential Continuous Non-Parametric Neural Identifier With Predefined Convergence Velocity

This paper addresses the design of an exponential function-based learning law for artificial neural networks(ANNs)with continuous dynamics.The ANN structure is used to obtain a non-parametric model of systems with uncertainties,which are described by a set of nonlinear ordinary differential equations.Two novel adaptive algorithms with predefined exponential convergence rate adjust the weights of the ANN.The first algorithm includes an adaptive gain depending on the identification error which accelerated the convergence of the weights and promotes a faster convergence between the states of the uncertain system and the trajectories of the neural identifier.The second approach uses a time-dependent sigmoidal gain that forces the convergence of the identification error to an invariant set characterized by an ellipsoid.The generalized volume of this ellipsoid depends on the upper bounds of uncertainties,perturbations and modeling errors.The application of the invariant ellipsoid method yields to obtain an algorithm to reduce the volume of the convergence region for the identification error.Both adaptive algorithms are derived from the application of a non-standard exponential dependent function and an associated controlled Lyapunov function.Numerical examples demonstrate the improvements enforced by the algorithms introduced in this study by comparing the convergence settings concerning classical schemes with non-exponential continuous learning methods.The proposed identifiers overcome the results of the classical identifier achieving a faster convergence to an invariant set of smaller dimensions.

Rock mass quality prediction on tunnel faces with incomplete multi-source dataset via tree-augmented naive Bayesian network

Rock mass quality serves as a vital index for predicting the stability and safety status of rock tunnel faces.In tunneling practice,the rock mass quality is often assessed via a combination of qualitative and quantitative parameters.However,due to the harsh on-site construction conditions,it is rather difficult to obtain some of the evaluation parameters which are essential for the rock mass quality prediction.In this study,a novel improved Swin Transformer is proposed to detect,segment,and quantify rock mass characteristic parameters such as water leakage,fractures,weak interlayers.The site experiment results demonstrate that the improved Swin Transformer achieves optimal segmentation results and achieving accuracies of 92%,81%,and 86%for water leakage,fractures,and weak interlayers,respectively.A multisource rock tunnel face characteristic(RTFC)dataset includes 11 parameters for predicting rock mass quality is established.Considering the limitations in predictive performance of incomplete evaluation parameters exist in this dataset,a novel tree-augmented naive Bayesian network(BN)is proposed to address the challenge of the incomplete dataset and achieved a prediction accuracy of 88%.In comparison with other commonly used Machine Learning models the proposed BN-based approach proved an improved performance on predicting the rock mass quality with the incomplete dataset.By utilizing the established BN,a further sensitivity analysis is conducted to quantitatively evaluate the importance of the various parameters,results indicate that the rock strength and fractures parameter exert the most significant influence on rock mass quality.

Analysis of Trends in Drought with the Non-Parametric Approach in Vietnam: A Case Study in Ninh Thuan Province

A quantitative study was used in the study of the tendency to change drought indicators in Vietnam through the Ninh Thuan province case study. The research data are temperature and precipitation data of 11 stations from 1986 to 2016 inside and outside Ninh Thuan province. To do the research, the author uses a non-parametric analysis method and the drought index calculation method. Specifically, with the non-parametric method, the author uses the analysis, Mann-Kendall (MK) and Theil-Sen (Sen’s slope), and to analyze drought, the author uses the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Moisture Index (MI). Two Softwares calculated in this study are ProUCL 5.1 and MAKENSEN 1.0 by the US Environmental Protection Agency and Finnish Meteorological Institute. The calculation results show that meteorological drought will decrease in the future with areas such as Phan Rang, Song Pha, Quan The, Ba Thap tend to increase very clearly, while Tam My and Nhi Ha tend to increase very clearly short. With the agricultural drought, the average MI results increased 0.013 per year, of which Song Pha station tended to increase the highest with 0.03 per year and lower with Nhi Ha with 0.001 per year. The forecast results also show that by the end of the 21st century, the SPI tends to decrease with SPI 1 being −0.68, SPI 3 being −0.40, SPI 6 being −0.25, SPI 12 is 0.42. Along with that is the forecast that the MI index will increase 0.013 per year to 2035, the MI index is 0.93, in 2050 it is 1.13, in 2075 it will be 1.46, and by 2100 it is 1.79. Research results will be used in policymaking, environmental resources management agencies, and researchers to develop and study solutions to adapt and mitigate drought in the context of variable climate change.

Inferring Eupolypods Divergence Time Using Bayesian Tip-Dating

According to the most recent Pteridophyte Phylogeny Group (PPG), eupolypods, or eupolypod ferns, are the most differentiated and diversified of all major lineages of ferns, accounting for more than half of extant fern diversity. However, the evolutionary history of eupolypods remains incompletely understood, and conflicting ideas and scenarios exist in the literature about many aspects of this history. Due to a scarce fossil record, the diversification time of eupolypods mainly inferred from molecular dating approaches. Currently, there are two molecular dating results: the diversification of eupolypods occurred either in the Late Cretaceous or as early as in the Jurassic. This study uses the Bayesian tip-dating approach for the first time to infer the diversification time for eupolypods. Our analyses support the Jurassic diversification for eupolypods. The age estimations for the diversifications of the whole clade and one of its two subclades (the eupolypods II) are both in the Jurassic, which adds to the growing body of data on a much earlier diversification of Polypodiales in the Mesozoic than previously suspected.

Enhancing photovoltaic power prediction using a CNN-LSTM-attention hybrid model with Bayesian hyperparameter optimization

Improving the accuracy of solar power forecasting is crucial to ensure grid stability,optimize solar power plant operations,and enhance grid dispatch efficiency.Although hybrid neural network models can effectively address the complexities of environmental data and power prediction uncertainties,challenges such as labor-intensive parameter adjustments and complex optimization processes persist.Thus,this study proposed a novel approach for solar power prediction using a hybrid model(CNN-LSTM-attention)that combines a convolutional neural network(CNN),long short-term memory(LSTM),and attention mechanisms.The model incorporates Bayesian optimization to refine the parameters and enhance the prediction accuracy.To prepare high-quality training data,the solar power data were first preprocessed,including feature selection,data cleaning,imputation,and smoothing.The processed data were then used to train a hybrid model based on the CNN-LSTM-attention architecture,followed by hyperparameter optimization employing Bayesian methods.The experimental results indicated that within acceptable model training times,the CNN-LSTM-attention model outperformed the LSTM,GRU,CNN-LSTM,CNN-LSTM with autoencoders,and parallel CNN-LSTM attention models.Furthermore,following Bayesian optimization,the optimized model demonstrated significantly reduced prediction errors during periods of data volatility compared to the original model,as evidenced by MRE evaluations.This highlights the clear advantage of the optimized model in forecasting fluctuating data.

An efficient physics-guided Bayesian framework for predicting ground settlement profile during excavations in clay

Recently,the application of Bayesian updating to predict excavation-induced deformation has proven successful and improved prediction accuracy significantly.However,updating the ground settlement profile,which is crucial for determining potential damage to nearby infrastructures,has received limited attention.To address this,this paper proposes a physics-guided simplified model combined with a Bayesian updating framework to accurately predict the ground settlement profile.The advantage of this model is that it eliminates the need for complex finite element modeling and makes the updating framework user-friendly.Furthermore,the model is physically interpretable,which can provide valuable references for construction adjustments.The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated through two field case studies,showing that it can yield satisfactory predictions for the settlement profile.

Distributed process monitoring based on Kantorovich distancemultiblock variational autoencoder and Bayesian inference

Modern industrial processes are typically characterized by large-scale and intricate internal relationships.Therefore,the distributed modeling process monitoring method is effective.A novel distributed monitoring scheme utilizing the Kantorovich distance-multiblock variational autoencoder(KD-MBVAE)is introduced.Firstly,given the high consistency of relevant variables within each sub-block during the change process,the variables exhibiting analogous statistical features are grouped into identical segments according to the optimal quality transfer theory.Subsequently,the variational autoencoder(VAE)model was separately established,and corresponding T^(2)statistics were calculated.To improve fault sensitivity further,a novel statistic,derived from Kantorovich distance,is introduced by analyzing model residuals from the perspective of probability distribution.The thresholds of both statistics were determined by kernel density estimation.Finally,monitoring results for both types of statistics within all blocks are amalgamated using Bayesian inference.Additionally,a novel approach for fault diagnosis is introduced.The feasibility and efficiency of the introduced scheme are verified through two cases.

Utilizing Bayesian Modeling and MCMC for Accurate Characterization of Naturally Occurring Radionuclides Reference Background Levels in Mining Areas

Statistical biases may be introduced by imprecisely quantifying background radiation reference levels. It is, therefore, imperative to devise a simple, adaptable approach for precisely describing the reference background levels of naturally occurring radionuclides (NOR) in mining sites. As a substitute statistical method, we suggest using Bayesian modeling in this work to examine the spatial distribution of NOR. For naturally occurring gamma-induced radionuclides like 232Th, 40K, and 238U, statistical parameters are inferred using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. After obtaining an accurate subsample using bootstrapping, we exclude any possible outliers that fall outside of the Highest Density Interval (HDI). We use MCMC to build a Bayesian model with the resampled data and make predictions about the posterior distribution of radionuclides produced by gamma irradiation. This method offers a strong and dependable way to describe NOR reference background values, which is important for managing and evaluating radiation risks in mining contexts.

Stochastic seismic inversion and Bayesian facies classification applied to porosity modeling and igneous rock identification

We apply stochastic seismic inversion and Bayesian facies classification for porosity modeling and igneous rock identification in the presalt interval of the Santos Basin. This integration of seismic and well-derived information enhances reservoir characterization. Stochastic inversion and Bayesian classification are powerful tools because they permit addressing the uncertainties in the model. We used the ES-MDA algorithm to achieve the realizations equivalent to the percentiles P10, P50, and P90 of acoustic impedance, a novel method for acoustic inversion in presalt. The facies were divided into five: reservoir 1,reservoir 2, tight carbonates, clayey rocks, and igneous rocks. To deal with the overlaps in acoustic impedance values of facies, we included geological information using a priori probability, indicating that structural highs are reservoir-dominated. To illustrate our approach, we conducted porosity modeling using facies-related rock-physics models for rock-physics inversion in an area with a well drilled in a coquina bank and evaluated the thickness and extension of an igneous intrusion near the carbonate-salt interface. The modeled porosity and the classified seismic facies are in good agreement with the ones observed in the wells. Notably, the coquinas bank presents an improvement in the porosity towards the top. The a priori probability model was crucial for limiting the clayey rocks to the structural lows. In Well B, the hit rate of the igneous rock in the three scenarios is higher than 60%, showing an excellent thickness-prediction capability.