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基于MCMC的PLP未来强度的Bayesian预测分析 被引量:1
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作者 王燕萍 吕震宙 赵新攀 《航空计算技术》 2010年第2期1-4,27,共5页
在无信息先验分布下,将Gibbs抽样与Metropolis-Hastings算法相结合的方法应用于幂律过程的未来强度的Bayesian预测。该预测方法能将时间截尾数据和失效截尾数据统一分析,并给出在未来某一时刻处强度函数的MCMC样本,利用该样本可以方便... 在无信息先验分布下,将Gibbs抽样与Metropolis-Hastings算法相结合的方法应用于幂律过程的未来强度的Bayesian预测。该预测方法能将时间截尾数据和失效截尾数据统一分析,并给出在未来某一时刻处强度函数的MCMC样本,利用该样本可以方便地获得关于未来某一时处刻强度函数及其函数的各种后验分析。一个经典工程数值算例说明了预测方法的可行性、合理性与有效性。 展开更多
关键词 幂律过程 强度函数 bayesian推断 GIBBS抽样 Metropolis—Hastings算法 预测分析
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A Study of New Method for Weapon System Effectiveness Evaluation Based on Bayesian Network 被引量:1
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作者 阎代维 谷良贤 潘雷 《Defence Technology(防务技术)》 SCIE EI CAS 2008年第3期209-213,共5页
As weapon system effectiveness is affected by many factors,its evaluation is essentially a multi-criterion decision making problem for its complexity.The evaluation model of the effectiveness is established on the bas... As weapon system effectiveness is affected by many factors,its evaluation is essentially a multi-criterion decision making problem for its complexity.The evaluation model of the effectiveness is established on the basis of metrics architecture of the effectiveness.The Bayesian network,which is used to evaluate the effectiveness,is established based on the metrics architecture and the evaluation models.For getting the weights of the metrics by Bayesian network,subjective initial values of the weights are given,gradient ascent algorithm is adopted,and the reasonable values of the weights are achieved.And then the effectiveness of every weapon system project is gained.The weapon system,whose effectiveness is relative maximum,is the optimization system.The research result shows that this method can solve the problem of AHP method which evaluation results are not compatible to the practice results and overcome the shortcoming of neural network in multilayer and multi-criterion decision.The method offers a new approach for evaluating the effectiveness. 展开更多
关键词 导弹 可行性 战斗能力 网络技术
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MNP模型参数估计实用方法及其在出行方式预测中的应用 被引量:2
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作者 俞礼军 王蕾云 《华南理工大学学报(自然科学版)》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2014年第2期103-108,138,共7页
鉴于SML-GHK方法估计MNP模型参数具有初值敏感性,提出了一种初值点确定与参数估计的实用方法。首先应用贝叶斯方法估计MNP模型参数的初值,再结合基于GHK的模拟极大似然方法估计MNP模型参数,并通过实际算例对该方法进行了验证。结果表明... 鉴于SML-GHK方法估计MNP模型参数具有初值敏感性,提出了一种初值点确定与参数估计的实用方法。首先应用贝叶斯方法估计MNP模型参数的初值,再结合基于GHK的模拟极大似然方法估计MNP模型参数,并通过实际算例对该方法进行了验证。结果表明:文中方法实用有效,特别是在小样本情况下效果明显;将基于该方法得到的参数值用于预测,能够较好地再现实际交通分担率;文中方法能够帮助规划师探讨某些交通政策变化时全体出行者对各种出行方式的选择概率的变化. 展开更多
关键词 MNP模型 参数估计 模拟极大似然 BAYES方法 GHK算法
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Network mechanism of effective constituents from the compound Yizhihao against influenza
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作者 Lyu-jie XU Hao JIA +3 位作者 Wen JIANG Jian-guo XING Ai-lin LIU Guan-hua DU 《中国药理学与毒理学杂志》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2018年第4期320-320,共1页
Influenza caused by influenza virus,seriously threaten human life and health.Drug treatment is one of the effective measurement.However,there are only two classes of drugs,one class is M2 blockers and another is neura... Influenza caused by influenza virus,seriously threaten human life and health.Drug treatment is one of the effective measurement.However,there are only two classes of drugs,one class is M2 blockers and another is neuraminidase(NA) inhibitors.The recent antiviral surveillance studies reported a global significant increase in M2 blocker resistance among influenza viruses,and the resistant virus strains against NA inhibitor are also reported in clinical treatment.Therefore thediscovery of new medicines with low resistance has become very urgent.As all known,traditional medicines with multi-target features and network mechanism often possess low resistance.Compound Yizhihao,which consists of radix isatidis,folium isatidis,Artemisia rupestris,is one of the famous traditional medicine for influenza treatment in China,however its mechanism of action against influenza is unclear.In this study,the multiple targets related with influenza disease and the known chemical constituents from Compound Yizhihao were collected,and multi-target QSAR(mt-QSAR) classification models were developed by Na?e Bayesian algorithm and verified by various datasets.Then the classification models were applied to predict the effective constituents and their drug targets.Finally,the constituent-target-pathway network was constructed,which revealed the effective constituents and their network mechanism in Compound Yizhihao.This study will lay important basis for the clinical uses for influenza treatment and for the further research and development of the effective constituents. 展开更多
关键词 流感病毒 神经氨酸酶 治疗方法 临床分析
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