A new method for evaluating the firing precision of multiple launch rocket system based on Bayesian theory

How to effectively evaluate the firing precision of weapon equipment at low cost is one of the core contents of improving the test level of weapon system.A new method to evaluate the firing precision of the MLRS considering the credibility of simulation system based on Bayesian theory is proposed in this paper.First of all,a comprehensive index system for the credibility of the simulation system of the firing precision of the MLRS is constructed combined with the group analytic hierarchy process.A modified method for determining the comprehensive weight of the index is established to improve the rationality of the index weight coefficients.The Bayesian posterior estimation formula of firing precision considering prior information is derived in the form of mixed prior distribution,and the rationality of prior information used in estimation model is discussed quantitatively.With the simulation tests,the different evaluation methods are compared to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.Finally,the experimental results show that the effectiveness of estimation method for firing precision is improved by more than 25%.

Leak Detection in Water Distribution Systems Using Bayesian Theory and Fisher’s Law

A leak detection method based on Bayesian theory and Fisher’s law was developed for water distribution systems. A hydraulic model was associated with the parameters of leaks (location, extent). The randomness of parameter values was quantified by probability density function and updated by Bayesian theory. Values of the parameters were estimated based on Fisher’s law. The amount of leaks was estimated by back propagation neural network. Based on flow characteristics in water distribution systems, the location of leaks can be estimated. The effectiveness of the proposed method was illustrated by simulated leak data of node pressure head and flow rate of pipelines in a test pipe network, and the leaks were spotted accurately and renovated on time.

Geoacoustic Inversion for Bottom Parameters via Bayesian Theory in Deep Ocean

We develop a new approach to estimating bottom parameters based on the Bayesian theory in deep ocean. The solution in a Bayesian inversion is characterized by its posterior probability density （PPD）, which combines prior information about the model with information from an observed data set. Bottom parameters are sensitive to the transmission loss （TL） data in shadow zones of deep ocean. In this study, TLs of different frequencies from the South China Sea in the summer of 2014 are used as the observed data sets. The interpretation of the multidimensional PPD requires the calculation of its moments, such as the mean, covariance, and marginal distributions, which provide parameter estimates and uncertainties. Considering that the sensitivities of shallow- zone TLs vary for different frequencies of the bottom parameters in the deep ocean, this research obtains bottom parameters at varying frequencies. Then, the inversion results are compared with the sampling data and the correlations between bottom parameters are determined. Furthermore, we show the inversion results for multi- frequency combined inversion. The inversion results are verified by the experimental TLs and the numerical results, which are calculated using the inverted bottom parameters for different source depths and receiver depths at the corresponding frequency.

A Bayesian Theory of Games： An Analysis of Strategic Interactions with Statistical Decision Theoretic Foundation

This paper introduces a new game theoretic equilibrium which is based upon the Bayesian subjective view of probability, BEIC （Bayesian equilibrium iterative conjectures）. It requires players to make predictions, starting from first order uninformative predictive distribution functions （or conjectures） and keep updating with statistical decision theoretic and game theoretic reasoning until a convergence of conjectures is achieved. Information known by the players such as the reaction functions are thereby incorporated into their higher order conjectures and help to determine the convergent conjectures and the equilibrium. In a BEIC, conjectures are consistent with the equilibrium or equilibriums they supported and so rationality is achieved for actions, strategies and conjectures. The BEIC approach is capable of analyzing a larger set of games than current Nash Equilibrium based games theory, including games with inaccurate observations, games with unstable equilibrium and games with double or multiple sided incomplete information games. On the other hand, for the set of games analyzed by the current games theory, it generates far lesser equilibriums and normally generates only a unique equilibrium. It treats games with complete and perfect information as special cases of games with incomplete information and noisy observation whereby the variance of the prior distribution function on type and the variance of the observation noise term tend to zero. Consequently, there is the issue of indeterminacy in statistical inference and decision making in these games as the equilibrium solution depends on which variances tends to zero first. It therefore identifies equilibriums in these games that have so far eluded the classical theory of games. Finally, it also resolves inconsistencies in equilibrium results by different solution concepts in current games theory such as that between Nash Equilibrium and iterative elimination of dominated strategies and that between Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium and backward induction （Subgame Perfect Equilibrium）.

Probabilistic prediction on three-dimensional roughness of discontinuity based on two-dimensional traces under rock tunnel excavation based on Bayesian theory

Three-dimensional(3D)roughness of discontinuity affects the quality of the rock mass,but 3D roughness is hard to be measured due to that the discontinuity is invisible in the engineering.Two-dimensional(2D)roughness can be calculated from the visible traces,but it is difficult to obtain enough quantity of the traces to directly derive 3D roughness during the tunnel excavation.In this study,a new method using Bayesian theory is proposed to derive 3D roughness from the low quantity of 2D roughness samples.For more accurately calculating 3D roughness,a new regression formula of 2D roughness is established firstly based on wavelet analysis.The new JRC3D prediction model based on Bayesian theory is then developed,and Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)sampling is adopted to process JRC3D prediction model.The discontinuity sample collected from the literature is used to verify the proposed method.Twenty groups with the sampling size of 2,3,4,and 5 of each group are randomly sampled from JRC2D values of 170 profiles of the discontinuity,respectively.The research results indicate that 100%,90%,85%,and 60%predicting JRC3D of the sample groups corresponding to the sampling size of 5,4,3,and 2 fall into the tolerance interval[JRC_(true)–1,JRC_(true)+1].It is validated that the sampling size of 5 is enough for predicting JRC3D.The sensitivities of sampling results are then analyzed on the influencing factors,which are the correlation function,the prior distribution,and the prior information.The discontinuity across the excavation face at ZK78+67.5 of Daxiagu tunnel is taken as the tunnel engineering application,and the results further verify that the predicting JRC3D with the sampling size of 5 is generally in good agreement with JRC3D true values.

A Function-Aware Mimic Defense Theory and Its Practice

In recent years,network attacks have been characterized by diversification and scale,which indicates a requirement for defense strategies to sacrifice generalizability for higher security.As the latest theoretical achievement in active defense,mimic defense demonstrates high robustness against complex attacks.This study proposes a Function-aware,Bayesian adjudication,and Adaptive updating Mimic Defense(FBAMD)theory for addressing the current problems of existing work including limited ability to resist unknown threats,imprecise heterogeneous metrics,and over-reliance on relatively-correct axiom.FBAMD incorporates three critical steps.Firstly,the common features of executors’vulnerabilities are obtained from the perspective of the functional implementation(i.e,input-output relationships extraction).Secondly,a new adjudication mechanism considering Bayes’theory is proposed by leveraging the advantages of both current results and historical confidence.Furthermore,posterior confidence can be updated regularly with prior adjudication information,which provides mimic system adaptability.The experimental analysis shows that FBAMD exhibits the best performance in the face of different types of attacks compared to the state-of-the-art over real-world datasets.This study presents a promising step toward the theo-retical innovation of mimic defense.

Traffic-load prediction based on echo state network improved by Bayesian theory in 10G-EPON

With the evolution of 10-gigabit Ethemet passive optical network （10G-EPON）, the traffic-load prediction ability is necessary to support soaring services traffic with diversified characteristics and requirements. As a strong candidate to be used for the traffic-load prediction, the echo state network （ESN） may face the pseudo-regression problem and need to be improved for the better traffic-load prediction. To overcome this problem, this paper proposes an ESN based traffic-load prediction scheme using Bayesian theory in 10G-EPON for future-proof. In this proposed approach, Bayesian probability is introduced into the ESN and is used to improve the performance of ESN. According to the architecture between optical line terminal （OLT） and optical network units （ONU） in 10G-EPON, an ESN based on the Bayesian theory （B-ESN） is realized and the B-ESN based traffic load prediction scheme is also developed in OLT. Experiment results show that the proposed scheme can greatly better the accuracy of traffic-load prediction with lower complex degree.

BHLM:Bayesian theory-based hybrid learning model for multi-document summarization

In order to understand and organize the document in an efficient way,the multidocument summarization becomes the prominent technique in the Internet world.As the information available is in a large amount,it is necessary to summarize the document for obtaining the condensed information.To perform the multi-document summarization,a new Bayesian theory-based Hybrid Learning Model(BHLM)is proposed in this paper.Initially,the input documents are preprocessed,where the stop words are removed from the document.Then,the feature of the sentence is extracted to determine the sentence score for summarizing the document.The extracted feature is then fed into the hybrid learning model for learning.Subsequently,learning feature,training error and correlation coefficient are integrated with the Bayesian model to develop BHLM.Also,the proposed method is used to assign the class label assisted by the mean,variance and probability measures.Finally,based on the class label,the sentences are sorted out to generate the final summary of the multi-document.The experimental results are validated in MATLAB,and the performance is analyzed using the metrics,precision,recall,F-measure and rouge-1.The proposed model attains 99.6%precision and 75%rouge-1 measure,which shows that the model can provide the final summary efficiently.

Parameter Estimation of a Valve-Controlled Cylinder System Model Based on Bench Test and Operating Data Fusion

The accurate estimation of parameters is the premise for establishing a high-fidelity simulation model of a valve-controlled cylinder system.Bench test data are easily obtained,but it is challenging to emulate actual loads in the research on parameter estimation of valve-controlled cylinder system.Despite the actual load information contained in the operating data of the control valve,its acquisition remains challenging.This paper proposes a method that fuses bench test and operating data for parameter estimation to address the aforementioned problems.The proposed method is based on Bayesian theory,and its core is a pool fusion of prior information from bench test and operating data.Firstly,a system model is established,and the parameters in the model are analysed.Secondly,the bench and operating data of the system are collected.Then,the model parameters and weight coefficients are estimated using the data fusion method.Finally,the estimated effects of the data fusion method,Bayesian method,and particle swarm optimisation(PSO)algorithm on system model parameters are compared.The research shows that the weight coefficient represents the contribution of different prior information to the parameter estimation result.The effect of parameter estimation based on the data fusion method is better than that of the Bayesian method and the PSO algorithm.Increasing load complexity leads to a decrease in model accuracy,highlighting the crucial role of the data fusion method in parameter estimation studies.

Probabilistic back analysis for geotechnical engineering based on Bayesian and support vector machine

Geomechanical parameters are complex and uncertain.In order to take this complexity and uncertainty into account,a probabilistic back-analysis method combining the Bayesian probability with the least squares support vector machine(LS-SVM) technique was proposed.The Bayesian probability was used to deal with the uncertainties in the geomechanical parameters,and an LS-SVM was utilized to establish the relationship between the displacement and the geomechanical parameters.The proposed approach was applied to the geomechanical parameter identification in a slope stability case study which was related to the permanent ship lock within the Three Gorges project in China.The results indicate that the proposed method presents the uncertainties in the geomechanical parameters reasonably well,and also improves the understanding that the monitored information is important in real projects.

Bayesian optimal design of step stress accelerated degradation testing

This study presents a Bayesian methodology for de- signing step stress accelerated degradation testing （SSADT） and its application to batteries. First, the simulation-based Bayesian de- sign framework for SSADT is presented. Then, by considering his- torical data, specific optimal objectives oriented Kullback-Leibler （KL） divergence is established. A numerical example is discussed to illustrate the design approach. It is assumed that the degrada- tion model （or process） follows a drift Brownian motion; the accele- ration model follows Arrhenius equation; and the corresponding parameters follow normal and Gamma prior distributions. Using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo （MCMC） method and WinBUGS software, the comparison shows that KL divergence is better than quadratic loss for optimal criteria. Further, the effect of simulation outiiers on the optimization plan is analyzed and the preferred sur- face fitting algorithm is chosen. At the end of the paper, a NASA lithium-ion battery dataset is used as historical information and the KL divergence oriented Bayesian design is compared with maxi- mum likelihood theory oriented locally optimal design. The results show that the proposed method can provide a much better testing plan for this engineering application.

Epistemic-Based Investigation of the Probability of Hazard Scenarios Using Bayesian Network for the Lifting Operation of Floating Objects

Owing to the increase in unprecedented accidents with new root causes in almost all operational areas, the importance of risk management has dramatically risen. Risk assessment, one of the most significant aspects of risk management, has a substantial impact on the system-safety level of organizations, industries, and operations. If the causes of all kinds of failure and the interactions between them are considered, effective risk assessment can be highly accurate. A combination of traditional risk assessment approaches and modern scientific probability methods can help in realizing better quantitative risk assessment methods. Most researchers face the problem of minimal field data with respect to the probability and frequency of each failure. Because of this limitation in the availability of epistemic knowledge, it is important to conduct epistemic estimations by applying the Bayesian theory for identifying plausible outcomes. In this paper, we propose an algorithm and demonstrate its application in a case study for a light-weight lifting operation in the Persian Gulf of Iran. First, we identify potential accident scenarios and present them in an event tree format. Next, excluding human error, we use the event tree to roughly estimate the prior probability of other hazard-promoting factors using a minimal amount of field data. We then use the Success Likelihood Index Method(SLIM) to calculate the probability of human error. On the basis of the proposed event tree, we use the Bayesian network of the provided scenarios to compensate for the lack of data. Finally, we determine the resulting probability of each event based on its evidence in the epistemic estimation format by building on two Bayesian network types: the probability of hazard promotion factors and the Bayesian theory. The study results indicate that despite the lack of available information on the operation of floating objects, a satisfactory result can be achieved using epistemic data.

Bayesian Inference of Empirical Coefficient for Foundation Settlement

A new approach based on Bayesian theory is proposed to determine the empirical coefficient in soil settlement calculation. Prior distribution is assumed to he uniform in [ 0.2,1.4 ]. Posterior density function is developed in the condition of prior distribution combined with the information of observed samples at four locations on a passenger dedicated fine. The results show that the posterior distribution of the empirical coefficient obeys Gaussian distribution. The mean value of the empirical coefficient decreases gradually with the increasing of the load on ground, and variance variation shows no regularity.

Reliability Analysis for Retaining Pile in Foundation Pit Based on Bayesian Principle

Moso bamboo has the advantages of high short-term strength and reproducibility,appropriating for temporary supporting structure of shallow foundation pit.According to the displacement of the pile top from an indoor model test,the reliability of the supporting effect of the moso bamboo pile was analyzed.First,the calculation formula of reliability index was deduced based on themean-value first-order second-moment(MVFOSM)method and probability theory under ultimate limit state and serviceability limit state.Then,the dimensionless bias factor(the ratio of the measured value to the calculated value)was introduced to normalize the displacement.The mathematical characteristics of the displacement were estimated and optimized based on Bayesian theory.Finally,taking 2.5 as the design reliability index,the effect of safety factor,tolerable limit displacement,and the ratio of the ultimate limit displacement to the tolerable on reliability index was analyzed.The results show that the safety level of the supporting pile can be increased by 1–2 levels when the safety factor increases by 0.5.When the coefficient of variation of tolerable limit displacement is less than 0.3,the safety factor can be 2–2.5.And the ratio of the ultimate limit displacement to the tolerable has a great influence on the reliability index,when the soil conditions is well,the ratio can be 1.2–1.3.

Effects of Bayesian Model Selection on Frequentist Performances: An Alternative Approach

It is quite common in statistical modeling to select a model and make inference as if the model had been known in advance;i.e. ignoring model selection uncertainty. The resulted estimator is called post-model selection estimator (PMSE) whose properties are hard to derive. Conditioning on data at hand (as it is usually the case), Bayesian model selection is free of this phenomenon. This paper is concerned with the properties of Bayesian estimator obtained after model selection when the frequentist (long run) performances of the resulted Bayesian estimator are of interest. The proposed method, using Bayesian decision theory, is based on the well known Bayesian model averaging (BMA)’s machinery;and outperforms PMSE and BMA. It is shown that if the unconditional model selection probability is equal to model prior, then the proposed approach reduces BMA. The method is illustrated using Bernoulli trials.

A Mixture-Based Bayesian Model Averaging Method

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a popular and powerful statistical method of taking account of uncertainty about model form or assumption. Usually the long run (frequentist) performances of the resulted estimator are hard to derive. This paper proposes a mixture of priors and sampling distributions as a basic of a Bayes estimator. The frequentist properties of the new Bayes estimator are automatically derived from Bayesian decision theory. It is shown that if all competing models have the same parametric form, the new Bayes estimator reduces to BMA estimator. The method is applied to the daily exchange rate Euro to US Dollar.

A Receiver-Forwarding Decision Scheme Based on Bayesian for NDN-VANET

Named Data Network(NDN) has caused wide concerns in VANET community because NDN uses a content-centric mechanism that naming content rather than the host. However, integrating NDN into VANET(NDN-VANET) also faces several challenges including consumer/provider mobile, broadcast storm problem and so on. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian-based Receiver Forwarding Decision(BRFD) scheme to mitigate the broadcast storm problem incurred by interest packets in NDN-VANET. In the BRFD, vehicles received an interest packet are required to make forwarding decisions based on Bayesian decision theory according to current network conditions obtained by neighbor interaction. However, the receiver-forwarding decision in BRFD can also cause a conflict issue because multiple vehicles forward copies of the same packet at the same time. So a back-off mechanism is introduced in BRFD. Experimental results show that the BRFD algorithm has better performance in several aspects in contrast to probability-based forwarding scheme and "bread crumb" routing.

Bayesian Equilibrium by Iterative Conjectures as a Refinement of Nash Equilibrium

BEIC （Bayesian equilibrium by iterative conjectures） analyzes games with players forming their conjectures about what other players will do through iterative reasoning starting with first order uninformative conjectures and keep updating their conjectures iteratively with game theoretic reasoning until a convergence of conjectures is achieved. In a BEIC, beliefs about the other players＇ strategies are specified and they are consistent with the equilibrium strategies they supported. A BEIC is therefore a perfect Bayesian equilibrium and hence a refinement of Nash equilibrium. Through six examples, the BE1C solutions are compared with those obtained by the other refining criteria of payoff-dominance, risk-dominance, iterated admissibility, subgame perfect equilibrium, Bayesian Nash equilibrium, perfect Bayesian equilibrium and the intuitive criterion. The outstanding results from the comparisons are that the BEIC approach is able to pick the natural focal point of a game when the iterated admissibility criterion fails to, the BEIC approach rules out equilibrium depending upon non credible threat, and that in simultaneous and sequential games of incomplete information, the BEIC approach not only normally narrows down the equilibriums to one but it also picks the most compelling equilibrium compare with Bayesian Nash equilibrium or perfect Bayesian equilibrium or intuitive criterion.

A case study of blasting vibration attenuation based on wave component characteristics

A typical blasting vibration wave is a composite wave,and its attenuation law is affected by the type of dominant wave component.The purpose of the present study is to establish an attenuation equation of the peak particle velocity(PPV),taking into account the attenuation characteristics of P-,S-and R-waves in the blasting vibration wave.Field blasting tests were carried out as a case to specifically apply the proposed equation.In view of the fact that the discrete properties of rock mass will inevitably cause the uncertainty of blasting vibration,we also carried out a probability analysis of PPV uncertainty,and introduced the concept of reliability to evaluate blasting vibration.The results showed that the established attenuation equation had a higher prediction accuracy,and can be considered as a promising equation implemented on more complex sites.The adopted uncertainty analysis method can comprehensively take account of the attenuation law of blasting vibration measured on site and discrete properties of rock masses.The obtained distribution of the PPV uncertainty factor can quantitatively evaluate the reliability of blasting vibration,which is a powerful and necessary supplement to the PPV attenuation equation.

The Evaluation of the Integrated Risk for the South-to-North Water Transfer Project Using the Bayesian Network Theory

南水北调工程是目前我国最大的调水工程。随着工程的建设和运行,由不确定性问题引起的风险问题越来越受到关注,工程运行的风险分析也摆在管理者的面前,如何识别、评估、降低和控制风险的发生成为南水北调工程运行中的一个重要问题。本文首次将贝叶斯网络理论引入到南水北调综合风险分析中,选取东线工程宝应抽水泵站为研究对象,利用贝叶斯网络推理功能得出宝应站运行综合风险发生的概率为0.025%,风险发生的等级为"较低"。利用情景分析的方法,得出在影响综合风险的因素中,泵站的管理维护状况条件改变时,综合风险变化最大,因此需要予以重点关注。